Support NeoGAF

[Spiegel]

In an effort to have a more serious discussion about this point, I'm going to list the titles on PSP and PS3 which have sold over 500k in Japan (million plus sellers bolded):


Yes, the situation is that sad.

PSP didn't really need 500k sellers to keep the system alive, and I mean alive and not doing sub 10k which is what the Vita will be doing soon. The bigger problems are price and perception and that's why Vita is pretty much fucked because when the hardware is expensive you are always cutting potential software sales. And if the software isn't selling the hardware will take a hit. Nintendo knew MH, MK7 and SML3D wouldn't be selling this good if they hadn't drop the price.

Between PSP and DS there was only a ~3000Y difference but this time Sony though they could get away with ~10000/15000Y more. And they probably would've get away with a 25000Y base price if they had locked MH or 19000Y with no MH, but no MH and 25000Y + memory card as the cheapest SKU when the competition costs 15000Y was a strategy destined to fail.

I know the huge 3DS pricedrop probably took Sony by surprise but after what happened with the PS3vsWii and PSPvsDS Sony should've learned and never planned to develop a much more expensive handheld compared to other typical Nintendo handhelds. I mean, they are late, they are much more expensive and they have zero potential big games on the horizon. Someone should get fired.

 

[duckroll]

PSP didn't really need 500k sellers to keep the system alive, and I mean alive and not doing sub 10k which is what the Vita will be doing soon. The bigger problems are price and perception and that's why Vita is pretty much fucked because when the hardware is expensive you are always cutting potential software sales. Nintendo knew MH, MK7 and SML3D wouldn't be selling this good if they hadn't drop the price.

I don't think hardware sales alone are meaningful to assessing the overall health of a platform, and also the health of the market for the first party of said platform. While the PSP hardware is on its way to also selling as many units as the PS2 did in Japan, the software sales paint a very different picture.

The Vita is not fucked because it is too expensive. The Vita is fucked because while the PSP managed to dig itself out of the hole it was in, it also never left any sort of clear succession plan or any plan at all for Sony. There was nothing Sony could do which would safely "follow up" on the PSP, because every single thing that the PSP relied on for success has nothing to do with Sony.

It's a poor business plan when you're just selling hardware with no hooks of your own in the software. They're doing better with this on the PS3 outside of Japan, but as far as Japan is concerned, Sony might as well be a non-player where it really counts. The PSP kept selling because software started showing up on it, but those software are not in any way tied to Sony platforms. This is why it was so easy for them to lose stuff like KH and MH to the competition almost immediately.

 

[Father_Brain]

Dudebros play 360's and have iPhones. They don't give a fuck about Vita. This is the situation Sony has put themselves into. No one is going to buy a Vita for Call of Duty because they will play it on 360, no one is going to buy a Vita as a high end tech device because they have an iPhone. And they're not even going to touch Nintendo's "blue ocean" market. They're fucked.

I'd say that's the probable outcome, yes. But the probable isn't certain.

 

[Psychotext]

The best way to improve Vita sales is through developer support. More developer support = more and better games = more sales.

That's really only going to make a difference a year and a half or more from now. Well, unless developers start cancelling their in progress games on mass.

 

[duckroll]

Here's a completely serious discussion which I think is pretty scary: If the situation that we're looking at continues to play out the way it looks like it's playing out, and there are no shocking twists or major betrayals, will the Vita ultimately be more or less successful than the Xbox360 in Japan?

 

[AceBandage]

Here's a completely serious discussion which I think is pretty scary: If the situation that we're looking at continues to play out the way it looks like it's playing out, and there are no shocking twists or major betrayals, will the Vita ultimately be more or less successful than the Xbox360 in Japan?

It'll end up doing better regardless, but unless things change it won't do well.

 

[Spiegel]

I don't think hardware sales alone are meaningful to assessing the overall health of a platform, and also the health of the market for the first party of said platform. While the PSP hardware is on its way to also selling as many units as the PS2 did in Japan, the software sales paint a very different picture.

The Vita is not fucked because it is too expensive. The Vita is fucked because while the PSP managed to dig itself out of the hole it was in, it also never left any sort of clear succession plan or any plan at all for Sony. There was nothing Sony could do which would safely "follow up" on the PSP, because every single thing that the PSP relied on for success has nothing to do with Sony.

It's a poor business plan when you're just selling hardware with no hooks of your own in the software. They're doing better with this on the PS3 outside of Japan, but as far as Japan is concerned, Sony might as well be a non-player where it really counts. The PSP kept selling because software started showing up on it, but those software are not in any way tied to Sony platforms. This is why it was so easy for them to lose stuff like KH and MH to the competition almost immediately.

I agree with all of this. It's just that Vita is more fucked because on top of not having strong software hooks it has a huge barrier of entry, price.

I was trying to say that if the barrier of price was gone they might get lucky again. But yeah, SCEJ has not been planning their systems very well and all they do is try to correct mistakes.

 

[test_account]

Here's a completely serious discussion which I think is pretty scary: If the situation that we're looking at continues to play out the way it looks like it's playing out, and there are no shocking twists or major betrayals, will the Vita ultimately be more or less successful than the Xbox360 in Japan?

I cant imagine that this will happend, at least not at this point. I'm pretty sure that there are much unnanounced stuff, mostly because the Vita is still relatively young*, but also because the developers have been busy with the 3DS games. If nothing big is being announce from now and to Tokyo Game Show 2012 has ended, then who knows. But the Vita will end up selling more hardware than the Xbox 360 at least.

* = if Ridge Racer Vita is anything to go by (8-9 months to develope), then the 3rd party developers have had PS Vita devkits for aproximately one year, or even a bit less than one year.

 

[duckroll]

I agree with all of this. It's just that Vita is more fucked because on top of not having strong software hooks it has a huge barrier of entry, price.

I was trying to say that if the barrier of price was gone they might get lucky again. But yeah, SCEJ has not been planning their systems very well and all they do is try to correct mistakes.

Yes, the reason why I don't like mentioning price much and instead push home the point of an unhealthy software base and a lack of first party strength is because we all know that the barrier of price can go down with time. Sony is fucked on the price in the short term because they cannot make the Vita cheaper without losing tons of money. But just like with the PS3, given enough time the cost of manufacturing will go down and they will be able to release a cheaper and more market-friendly revision. This is totally a solvable problem.

The other issues I feel are less solvable. At least not in the sense that Sony can actually do something about it on their own. Their first party brands are dead in the water in Japan, their development studios are fucking inefficient, and third parties don't have to answer to anybody so they're not something you can count on.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

PSP didn't really need 500k sellers to keep the system alive, and I mean alive and not doing sub 10k which is what the Vita will be doing soon. The bigger problems are price and perception and that's why Vita is pretty much fucked because when the hardware is expensive you are always cutting potential software sales. And if the software isn't selling the hardware will take a hit. Nintendo knew MH, MK7 and SML3D wouldn't be selling this good if they hadn't drop the price.

Between PSP and DS there was only a ~3000Y difference but this time Sony though they could get away with ~10000/15000Y more. And they probably would've get away with a 25000Y base price if they had locked MH or 19000Y with no MH, but no MH and 25000Y + memory card as the cheapest SKU when the competition costs 15000Y was a strategy destined to fail.

I know the huge 3DS pricedrop probably took Sony by surprise but after what happened with the PS3vsWii and PSPvsDS Sony should've learned and never planned to develop a much more expensive handheld compared to other typical Nintendo handhelds. I mean, they are late, they are much more expensive and they have zero potential big games on the horizon. Someone should get fired.

Well wasn't the huge disparity between hardware and software a huge concern. I also don't believe hardware truly picked up until the 3000(or maybe it was 2000) model released along with MH. I thought the huge disparity between hardware and software was chalked up to rampant piracy. Granted I don't believe we had much evidence.

Also, there was nothing Sony could've done about the 3DS price drop. They had no wiggle room.

I don't think anyone should be fired. Sony as a company was stupid enough to employ the same strategy that didn't work out well with PSP and PS3 except this time they couldn't secure the most important ip out there for them. They did the same strategy as PSP and PS3 and the only way PSP succeeded was a miracle port of a PS2 game that had flopped that somehow went to sell on par with DQ and Pokemon. The only way PS3 succeeded is by doing an entire relaunch of the system by revising the entire hardware massively cutting the price and offering more games which resulted in them losing a huge chunk of money.

As I always said, from the beggining. Vita never had the games and it's lineup of games was always piss poor. I didn't see it selling well(not this bad though) and their strategy of creating a high end gaming portable like they did with PSP and PS3 only made things worse. Granted they didn't have much to go on other than to hope to carve out their own niche in the gaming market for a high end gaming device.

With all that said, I suspect they have a few surprises under their belt and I could see Vita staying afloat for a couple years. I don't think it will go the way of the PSP Go just yet.

 

[civilstrife]

I'm starting to think that the $249 from Nintendo was about 50/50 them thinking they could get away with it, and luring Sony into pricing complacency.

 

[cj_iwakura]

Good for Assault Horizon 3DS. It looks amazing.

 

[duckroll]

I'm starting to think that the $249 from Nintendo was about 50/50 them thinking they could get away with it, and luring Sony into pricing complacency.

That doesn't make any sense at all. It was definitely 100% thinking they could get away with it. There's no other reason. What sort of "pricing complacency" could they have lured Sony into? Let's not kid ourselves, by the time the 3DS pricing was announced, the hardware for the Vita is locked and done. There's really nothing Sony could have done about it at that point that they cannot also do now. It's not like Sony looked at Nintendo's price and went "okay, now we set our price and decide to what parts to put in!"

Let's not be silly.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

That doesn't make any sense at all. It was definitely 100% thinking they could get away with it. There's no other reason. What sort of "pricing complacency" could they have lured Sony into? Let's not kid ourselves, by the time the 3DS pricing was announced, the hardware for the Vita is locked and done. There's really nothing Sony could have done about it at that point that they cannot also do now. It's not like Sony looked at Nintendo's price and went "okay, now we set our price and decide to what parts to put in!"

Let's not be silly.

Yep like the Wii's pricing and the DSl, DSi, and DSi XL pricing. They thought they could get away with it and massively overprice it. Personally speaking I think they cut the price too much(from a business sense). I think a price cut to $199 would've made more sense than $179 and likely wouldn't have made a significant difference in sales, jmo.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Nintendo thought they could get away with the $250 price point. I'm still of the opinion that if they actually had some heavy hitting software at launch that they would have. I don't think sales would have been this good and a price drop would have been needed eventually but certainly not as fast or large as what they ended up doing.

 

[DCharlie]

Between PSP and DS there was only a ~3000Y difference

same difference now between 3DS and PSP !

PSP is the mystery player here - it's still alive and there's a good number of interesting titles coming next year (all purchasable and playable on the Vita of course too).

Like everyone else, I have no idea -what- sony's game plan is and we should stop kidding ourselves that we do know but the idea that they have absolutely -nothing- left, planned or upcoming and that Vita is already done is a) getting increasingly boring to discuss as we're going round and round and round the same dogshit arguments b) shortsighted at best.

 

[blu]

I think Sony need to provide an App Store ecosystem on the Vita, stat. Vita needs to be the 'cooler' iPod. The digital walkman Sony never had. For that they need to significantly lower the threshold of dev admittance, namely to iOS dev levels. Of course, Sony had to do that on the psp already, and they did not. So I'm just babbling here.

 

[NateDrake]

I think Sony need to provide an App Store ecosystem on the Vita, stat. Vita needs to be the 'cooler' iPod. The digital walkman Sony never had. For that they need to significantly lower the threshold of dev admittance, namely to iOS dev levels. Of course, the had to do that on the psp already, and they did not. So I'm just babbling here.

But I need a memory card to take advantage of all that. Sony not including built-in memory for such downloads isn't helping Vita any.

 

[blu]

But I need a memory card to take advantage of all that. Sony not including built-in memory for such downloads isn't helping Vita any.

Indeed. But they can price the vita cards considerably better than what they are at currently. Hopefully.

 

[Khrno]

I think Sony need to provide an App Store ecosystem on the Vita, stat. Vita needs to be the 'cooler' iPod. The digital walkman Sony never had. For that they need to significantly lower the threshold of dev admittance, namely to iOS dev levels. Of course, Sony had to do that on the psp already, and they did not. So I'm just babbling here.

Huh?

http://www.sony.co.uk/hub/walkman-mp3-players

There are tons of those digital walkmans, and they have some Walkman-branded mobile phones as well.

 

[Dalthien]

What was sony's rationale for releasing the vita so late after the 3DS in japan? What's the rationale for skipping holiday 2011 in the west?

This policy of releasing late has bit them in the ass twice in a row now. Launching the PS3 late gave MS a chance to deal with all of their early RROD issues (which could very well have crippled the platform with a viable PS3 alternative available) and their weak early line-up. Likewise, Vita launching late gave Nintendo all the time they needed to deal with their badly received 3DS pricing and weak early line-up.

Having PS3 and Vita available on the same timeline with their competitors could have given them a real chance to capitalize on and exploit their competition's rather large mistakes.

Not to mention that launching late cost them a great deal of 3rd-party support. The early launch allowed MS the time to build up enough momentum that the PS3 started losing Playstation-exclusive brands to 360. The same thing has now happened again with the 3DS early launch allowing it scoop up some formerly PSP-focused (in the handheld arena) brands and dev support.

For the life of me, I can't imagine why Sony would possibly risk going down that road again with PS4, but most indications that we've had so far seem to point to Sony making this same mistake again a 3rd time.

PSP is the mystery player here - it's still alive and there's a good number of interesting titles coming next year (all purchasable and playable on the Vita of course too).

Nah, PSP is dead. Yes, there is still some software coming, but the ecosystem is drying up pretty quickly. PSP software actually just had a pretty horrible holiday season, and the well will be pretty much completely dry (for all intents and purposes) come mid-summer.

I'm starting to think that the $249 from Nintendo was about 50/50 them thinking they could get away with it, and luring Sony into pricing complacency.

Nah, that was just Nintendo being greedy. The last thing in the world they wanted was to go through that whole nightmare of publicly announcing what a failure 3DS had been up to that point, and how they were forced into such a drastic move so early in the product's life.

But now that they've taken the painful step, not only have they seen the platform revitalized worldwide, but they've also picked up an unforeseen extra bonus (from their point-of-view). The price drop has now planted the same seed in everyone's mind with respect to Vita. There is an almost palpable expectation out there now that Sony will have to take the same drastic measures with Vita, and I think that could be a very real drag on sales for Sony until they actually take that painful step themselves.

 

[gkryhewy]

Watching the Vita reminds me of being a young Saturn fan, watching helplessly as my childhood-savings-bond cash-in console ($399.99 at US launch) slowly but surely suffocated. I expected Vita to crater in the West, but I thought it would carve out a healthy market in Handheld Land.

 

[blu]

Huh?

http://www.sony.co.uk/hub/walkman-mp3-players

There are tons of those digital walkmans, and they have some Walkman-branded mobile phones as well.

Did you read the rest of my post?

 

[Scum]

I still don't think a title like Gran Turismo will be the one, to be honest. Only because it will turn out to be too damn front loaded, whereas Sony will actually need a title that will be steady in sales.
Plus, the fact that I don't trust PD and release dates, at all. First party inefficiency, like duckroll mentions, will probably mean a wait of 2-3 yrs before the damn game even shows up...

 

[DCharlie]

Nah, PSP is dead. Yes, there is still some software coming, but the ecosystem is drying up pretty quickly. PSP software actually just had a pretty horrible holiday season, and the well will be pretty much completely dry (for all intents and purposes) come mid-summer.

top selling game this week is a PSP game, the ecosystem is also fully covered by Vita and maybe even extend to PS Suite for phones , there's more than a few interesting titles coming in the coming year too.

It also gives devs a chance to sell PSP games on multiplatforms from this point onwards, with the potential for growth with the idea that the games are within that PSP spec range. If managed correctly this could be the core of that "iOS ecosystem" everyone is so fond of!

But yes, the PSP isn't dead just yet - not by a long shot - and i'm not sure it will die in Japan quite as quickly as people think

 

[Khrno]

Did you read the rest of my post?

Which has really nothing to do with Walkman, unless you are suggesting that having a Walkman sticker next to PlayStation is part of the plan? Not mentioning that both the PSP and Vita can play MP3s and other audio files, so the Walkman bit wouldn't really add much more.

So yeah, in the end, the walkman thing is completely unrelated, otherwise you better suggest as well that the Vita camera should be advertised as a Cybershot, and while you are at it, that the screen is somehow related to Bravia, although it's not.

But I do agree, that the price might be the most important point for the possible buyers, or else it will share the same fate as the Xperia Play, which has most if not all of the above things, and happens to make calls too.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

the ecosystem is also fully covered by Vita

It's not though, or I'd be able to play BbS on a Vita.

 

[AniHawk]

Someone should get fired.

i hear they're getting rid of kaz soon

 

[AniHawk]

Watching the Vita reminds me of being a young Saturn fan, watching helplessly as my childhood-savings-bond cash-in console ($399.99 at US launch) slowly but surely suffocated. I expected Vita to crater in the West, but I thought it would carve out a healthy market in Handheld Land.

it's probably going to do just fine. if the ds, 3ds, ps3, and psp could all return from the dead, i'm sure the vita can too.

 

[mclem]

Here's a completely serious discussion which I think is pretty scary: If the situation that we're looking at continues to play out the way it looks like it's playing out, and there are no shocking twists or major betrayals, will the Vita ultimately be more or less successful than the Xbox360 in Japan?

Are you defining 'success' in terms of direct numbers, or in terms of how they perform relative to expectations?

 

[matmanx1]

Looking at Sony's new IP's this gen is sort of telling isn't it. Resistance (fps), Uncharted (tps), Motorstorm (offroad racing), Infamous (action), MAG (fps) Demon's Souls (action-rpg), Warhawk and Starhawk (tps) and while I'm sure I didn't list everything you can sort of see that there isn't much Japan focus going on.

The phrase "you reap what you sow" comes to mind and while I can understand wanting to capture the markets outside of Japan Sony's lack of focus on their home market is hurting them where they live.

 

[duckroll]

Are you defining 'success' in terms of direct numbers, or in terms of how they perform relative to expectations?

I am defining success in terms of sales success of the software library, total hardware sales, etc. Right now, a month after the Vita launch, there isn't a single title which has sold 100k. That's pretty bad.

 

[DCharlie]

Right now, a month after the Vita launch, there isn't a single title which has sold 100k.

isn't mingol there ? And although people seem to poo-poo the idea that people are actually downloading games (who does that these days?! ) i'm pretty confident mingol is past the 100k total sales.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

Looking at Sony's new IP's this gen is sort of telling isn't it. Resistance (fps), Uncharted (tps), Motorstorm (offroad racing), Infamous (action), MAG (fps) Demon's Souls (action-rpg), Warhawk and Starhawk (tps) and while I'm sure I didn't list everything you can sort of see that there isn't much Japan focus going on.

The phrase "you reap what you sow" comes to mind and while I can understand wanting to capture the markets outside of Japan Sony's lack of focus on their home market is hurting them where they live.

What are Sony's notable Japanese studios? I can't think of any with the notoriety of Naughty Dog or Insomniac or Bend. They need their own EAD.

Nintendo develops mostly in Japan with a couple studios in the states (including one major player) and some frequent outsourcing partners. It's a more balanced approach that seems to pay off for them.

 

[duckroll]

isn't mingol there ? And although people seem to poo-poo the idea that people are actually downloading games (who does that these days?! ) i'm pretty confident mingol is past the 100k total sales.

I don't think so? Are there newer numbers than the 68k one?

 

[Tempy]

I don't think so? Are there newer numbers than the 68k one?

Obviously the rest of that 100k number has been downloaded from PSN!

 

[Road]

Here's a completely serious discussion which I think is pretty scary: If the situation that we're looking at continues to play out the way it looks like it's playing out, and there are no shocking twists or major betrayals, will the Vita ultimately be more or less successful than the Xbox360 in Japan?

I'm one who thinks Vita's obituary was signed on a meeting between Capcom and Sony in 2010. But Xbox level of performance is too much doom and gloom even for me. =P

Right now I'm thinking between Dreamcast and Gamecube.

I don't think that confirms anything. If you expect to sell 4 million of something at $250 and instead sell 4 million of something at $170, you're losing millions upon millions of expected dollars.

The source of losing money on 3DS hardware is not on Nintendo's website. It was a quote attributed to Iwata by Bloomberg.

 

[UncleSporky]

That doesn't make any sense at all. It was definitely 100% thinking they could get away with it. There's no other reason. What sort of "pricing complacency" could they have lured Sony into? Let's not kid ourselves, by the time the 3DS pricing was announced, the hardware for the Vita is locked and done. There's really nothing Sony could have done about it at that point that they cannot also do now. It's not like Sony looked at Nintendo's price and went "okay, now we set our price and decide to what parts to put in!"

Let's not be silly.

If Nintendo had launched at $170 or $200 (somehow, for some reason...we'd probably be looking at less powerful hardware so they could make a small profit etc.), what do you think Sony would've priced their system at?

Do you think it's likely they would have fought harder to get down to $200? Would they have said "shit, there's no way we're beating that, but we can sweeten the deal" and launched at $250 but included a memory card?

 

[Busaiku]

If Nintendo had launched at $170 or $200 (somehow, for some reason...we'd probably be looking at less powerful hardware so they could make a small profit etc.), what do you think Sony would've priced their system at?

Do you think it's likely they would have fought harder to get down to $200? Would they have said "shit, there's no way we're beating that, but we can sweeten the deal" and launched at $250 but included a memory card?

No?
It will take them 3 years to profit on this, so I'm gonna guess that there's little they could have done to lower the price.

 

[UncleSporky]

No?
It will take them 3 years to profit on this, so I'm gonna guess that there's little they could have done to lower the price.

You don't think they might've gone with slightly lower powered hardware? I suppose it was probably too late by the time they found out the 3DS's price.

EDIT: I missed that this was addressed above, apologies.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

I suppose it was probably too late

Yes.

 

[duckroll]

If Nintendo had launched at $170 or $200 (somehow, for some reason...we'd probably be looking at less powerful hardware so they could make a small profit etc.), what do you think Sony would've priced their system at?

Do you think it's likely they would have fought harder to get down to $200? Would they have said "shit, there's no way we're beating that, but we can sweeten the deal" and launched at $250 but included a memory card?

The only realistic option I think they would have had would be to consider dropping the 3G model. But considering it is so important to their overall plans for the Vita worldwide, that doesn't seem viable either.

 

[Fafalada]

And although people seem to poo-poo the idea that people are actually downloading games

Gaf buys their games retail - except when you're hoarding on Steam, but that's a PC exclusive. Noone would ever buy console games online.

And we all know Gaf sales-age represents the worldwide purchase habits of everyone.

 

[AniHawk]

what if they set it on fire?

 

[UncleSporky]

Because I do think it's obvious Sony pushed hard to match 3DS's price.

I'm thinking they might've been tossing around $280 or so and when the 3DS's price was announced it was too good to pass up.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

I think 3G will be the UMD of this generation. Stupid inclusion, heavily backed by Sony, only to become the albatross around their neck. At least they had the foresight this time to make a model without it, but I can't imagine how much money they must have blown on it already.

I don't know what I would do in their situation now. Maybe make a Monster Hunter clone? Could be cheaper than bribing Capcom for a bone.

 

[duckroll]

I don't know what I would do in their situation now. Maybe make a Monster Hunter clone? Could be cheaper than bribing Capcom for a bone.

http://www.famitsu.com/sp/120119_ragnarok/

But will it sell?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Gaf buys their games retail - except when you're hoarding on Steam, but that's a PC exclusive. Noone would ever buy console games online.

And we all know Gaf sales-age represents the worldwide purchase habits of everyone.

We definitely buy less porn than the average person.

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

http://www.famitsu.com/sp/120119_ragnarok/

But will it sell?

While we're throwing around numbers, how well have comparable Monster Hunter clones done? The series seems so dependent on local multi that you only invest in the ecosystem everyone else is invested in.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

http://www.famitsu.com/sp/120119_ragnarok/

But will it sell?

Is that first party? If I were Sony I'd be marketing the shit out of it. Advertisements, tie ins, a 40/40 in Famitsu, the works.