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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2012 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

TheNatural

My Member!
Vita, just like Sony, is done. The big question isn't what happens to Vita if it continues to fail - it's what happens to Sony? Are they going to announce their fourth straight fiscal year of losses without cutting anything back?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I think there's a very obvious reason why there is a lack of 3DS announcements in the last 3 months. Let's look at what the major publishers in Japan have on their plate for the 3DS.

Square Enix:
Nov 2011 - Slime Morimori 3
Feb 2012 - Theatrhythm Final Fantasy
Mar 2012 - Kingdom Hearts 3D
2012 - Dragon Quest Monsters Terry's Wonderland
2012 - Bravely Default

Capcom:
Dec 2011 - Monster Hunter 3G
Jan 2012 - Resident Evil Revelations
??? - Monster Hunter 4

Bandai Namco Games:
Nov 2011 - Brave Company
Dec 2011 - SD Gundam G Generation 3D
Jan 2012 - Ace Combat 3D
Feb 2012 - Tekken 3D
2012 - Lost Heroes

Konami:
Dec 2011 - Winning Eleven 2012
Jan 2012 - Beyond the Labyrinth
Feb 2012 - New Loveplus
Mar 2012 - Metal Gear Solid 3D Snake Eater

Sega:
Nov 2011 - Shinobi 3D
Dec 2011 - Sonic Generations
Jan 2012 - Rhythm Thief R
Mar 2012 - Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai

Level 5:
Dec 2011 - Inazuma Eleven Go
Mar 2012 - Girls RPG
2012 - Fantasy Life
2012 - Time Travelers
2012 - Professor Layton vs Ace Attorney
2012 - Guild01


The big publishers either all have a bunch of 3DS games coming out between Nov 2011 and March 2012, or they have even more titles announced with no release dates. Either way, this means none of them are likely to be announcing many more titles until after the financial year. Expect more announcements in the months leading up to E3.

I'd say we could receive some of them during next weeks, other announcements of low / medium profile games (which EVERY success console must have ) in Famitsu for Q2 release dates. ...But next week there's the Nintendo Investors' Briefing, and I think something could be announced there, DQ7 or not.
 
Vita, just like Sony, is done. The big question isn't what happens to Vita if it continues to fail - it's what happens to Sony? Are they going to announce their fourth straight fiscal year of losses without cutting anything back?

I'm hoping for a bargain bin priced Vita myself but I think it's premature to write the system off after just a month on the market in one region.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
I'm hoping for a bargain bin priced Vita myself but I think it's premature to write the system off after just a month on the market in one region.

I'm writing it off after three years of losses for the company and not having a business plan that makes any common sense or business sense.
 

matmanx1

Member
I remember reading one of the Vita hands on previews from someone (1up or Eurogamer or something like that) and the author of the article said something like "much like Apple with the iPad, Sony's job is going to be to convince people that they need a product that they didn't even know they wanted" or something along those lines. The author stated that he really liked the Vita as a product and that it was a great piece of kit but it was really going to be up to Sony to sell it properly.

I think Sony's at least done a good job starting that with the Mall Events and Social Clubs as getting the Vita in people's hands for a demo is absolutely the best thing you can do with a new device like this. Sony has confidence in the hardware for good reason but unless people can hold it for themselves and develop a little bit of "technolust" then it's going to be difficult for them to get their message out.

Sony needs to continue this and expand on it by making sure there's a demo unit in every Gamestop, Bestbuy, etc. (do they have demo units up in the retail stores in Japan?) and by keeping the flow of software coming. I'm one of those people who purchase based on the overall quality and depth of a system's library rather than one single title and I think there are many like me who just want to see a nice selection of games coming down the pipe.
 
I've said before that I think that Sony's most workable option (assuming that they're not willing to pursue a strategy which involves putting themselves far deeper into the red than they already are) is to position Vita as luxury device while continuing focus on PSP, waiting until component prices go down enough to give Vita a price drop that brings it into mass appeal territory (maybe ~$200?).

But here's a thought experiment maybe: What about making a much smaller Vita, something the size of the 3DS. Ignoring the cost of R&D and startup fees (like making the test moldings for an entirely new case and so forth):

- can the hardware be shrunk like this without heat issues coming up?
- will there be a decent cost savings going from a 5-inch, OLED screen to a 3.5" conventional LED/LCD screen?
- how about going from the current 2200mAh battery to a 1300mAh battery, not unlike the one on the 3DS
- and what would be the cost savings in having less general material (it'd probably use less than 50% of the plastic)
- are there any superfluous ports or items that could be removed (I mean, it doesn't *need* a second speaker, especially when you could get stereo with headphones if you're an audiophile)


So the obvious problems of the above include the already terrible battery life turning into a big pile of crap and the smaller screen possibly being an issue if developers are specifically targeting making their sprites'n'such optimally visible on a 5" screen.

I don't think this action will decrease prices nearly enough, but I don't know what the costs are on the components that would be shrunk or done away with, so I might be mistaken. Maybe there are redesign strategies that I'm not even slightly thinking of that could reach this goal. I do think that this might be interesting to ruminate on. :)
 

Sadist

Member
Ah thanks for the 3DS 3rd party list. I was just wondering, because I know Q1 in Japan is absolutely packed with software, but after March 31st there is little known about future 3DS releases.
 
The "I want Vita to crash (in order to get it cheaper)" is the new meme after the "I'll wait for 3DS redesign". But more annoying.

About 3DS, I didn't really expected so many support of japanese companies. We're talking about 5 Square-Enix games in a single year, for example.

The problem of Vita (in Japan) is that there is no a single killer app in the works. Even if there are a few games that may appeal the western markets, I don't see any game saga that usually have sales of over 500k in Japan going with an exclusive title to Vita.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
The "I want Vita to crash (in order to get it cheaper)" is the new meme after the "I'll wait for 3DS redesign". But more annoying.

About 3DS, I didn't really expected so many support of japanese companies. We're talking about 5 Square-Enix games in a single year, for example.

The problem of Vita (in Japan) is that there is no a single killer app in the works. Even if there are a few games that may appeal the western markets, I don't see any game saga that usually have sales of over 500k in Japan going with an exclusive title to Vita.

I'd say they're pretty much fucked on both fronts. They are equal opportunity fuck ups, don't worry.
 

I'm an expert

Formerly worldrevolution. The only reason I am nice to anyone else is to avoid being banned.
As someone who wants to love the Vita I can't help but feel down about the whole situation. They should have switched the launch dates for US to December and Japan to February. The holidays in the US could have given them a great launching start and given them more time to actually have a game the Japanese gamers want. Uncharted sells a few hundred thousand in Japan but a portable iteration was only ever going to do a fraction of that there.
 
I'd say they're pretty much fucked on both fronts. They are equal opportunity fuck ups, don't worry.

Not really. Maybe in US, but in Europe there are a lot of Vita games that may sold very well. Uncharted, Killzone, Bioshock (if it's a new chapter, not a port), LBP, etc... are games that usually sell very well. Here, in Spain, a lot of people will buy Vita only to be able to play FIFA on street.
 

matmanx1

Member
A FF Type-1 would conceivably clear 500k but as the Type-0 hasn't been out that long I don't know how far down the road the next one is. Or if it will even be a Vita exclusive.

If Namco Bandai were to do an exclusive Tales of game for the Vita (a new good one, that is) it also could conceivably clear 500k although that's far from a given considering the series history on handheld platforms.

Other than those I have no idea what could conceivably cross the 500k barrier and show up on a Sony system that isn't named MonHun.
 

duckroll

Member
If we're listing games which don't exist and will probably never exist, I'll say that KH3 on the Vita will probably sell over 500k in Japan. :p
 
You're not listening. When your projected earnings include sales of something at X amount, but you sell it at Y amount which is less than X, every sale is a "loss" from your previously projected earnings.

Let's say it cost $5 to make a bag but you sell it for $100. You think you're going to sell 100 of them at $100 and therefore profit $9,500. You end up selling all 100 but only at $40 (still a profit of $35 per). So instead of profits of $9,500, you have profits of $3,500 when your actual earnings come out.. which is $6,000 less than you expected to make.

Nintendo's wording conceivably could relate to this scenario. Nothing about it unequivocally says they're losing money on the hardware, only that the price cut has lost them money. As they continue to cut the cost of manufacture, the cheaper selling point will get closer to what profit they had hoped to make before the price cut (although never what they WOULD have made if one didn't happen, mind you).

Nintendo said they are going to lose money this FY.
 
Sony really should have kept on making RPGs after LoD. They'd probably be able to pump out a couple good ones early on for the Vita now.
 

Slime

Banned
I think it's telling that SE's only Vita-exclusive title (Army Corps of Hell) looks like it started development on PSP, and probably did. Lord of Apocalypse and Final Fantasy X are clearly afterthought ports.

I don't think they have enough faith in the platform to actually dedicate any real time/money to it, and with these sales they'd be right to. I would be very surprised if they have anything at all in the pipeline, and I think the same thing is happening with most developers. They had cold feet to begin with, and as they see poor sales they feel validated. That's what's going to kill the Vita going forward, unless there's some sales miracle worldwide in February.
 

duckroll

Member
In an effort to have a more serious discussion about this point, I'm going to list the titles on PSP and PS3 which have sold over 500k in Japan (million plus sellers bolded):

PSP:
Monster Hunter Portable 3rd
Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G
Monster Hunter Portable 2nd

Dissidia Final Fantasy
Crisis Core Final Fantasy VII
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep
Final Fantasy Type-0
Monster Hunter Portable
Phantasy Star Portable
God Eater
Phantasy Star Poirtable 2
Monster Hunter Diary


PS3:
Final Fantasy XIII
Final Fantasy XIII-2
Metal Gear Solid 4
Tales of Xillia
Gran Turismo 5
Ryu ga Gotoku 4
Hokuto Musou
Resident Evil 5
Ryu ga Gotoku 3


Yes, the situation is that sad.
 

duckroll

Member
In comparison to the PSP and PS3 list above, I would like to add that the PS2 had 70 titles which sold 500k or more in its lifetime, and 17 of them sold over a million copies. The PS1 also had 70 titles which sold 500k or more, and 18 of them sold over a million copies.

Food for thought.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
But surely Shenmue 3 will change the wind for Vita? Who's with me?!?!

XD

Seriously, now. There's just one game right now which sells over 500k and which still hasn't been announced for any platform: the rumoured next step in the Phantasy Star franchise, Phantasy Star Victory, rumoured to be released on Vita. Really, it's been a while since we heard news about PS brand on portables. When's Online 2 out? Probably, we'll hear more news about it after its release.
 
In comparison to the PSP and PS3 list above, I would like to add that the PS2 had 70 titles which sold 500k or more in its lifetime, and 17 of them sold over a million copies. The PS1 also had 70 titles which sold 500k or more, and 18 of them sold over a million copies.

Food for thought.

How did the DS do?
 
In an effort to have a more serious discussion about this point, I'm going to list the titles on PSP and PS3 which have sold over 500k in Japan (million plus sellers bolded):

PSP:
Monster Hunter Portable 3rd
Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G
Monster Hunter Portable 2nd

Dissidia Final Fantasy
Crisis Core Final Fantasy VII
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep
Final Fantasy Type-0
Monster Hunter Portable
Phantasy Star Portable
God Eater
Phantasy Star Poirtable 2
Monster Hunter Diary


PS3:
Final Fantasy XIII
Final Fantasy XIII-2
Metal Gear Solid 4
Tales of Xillia
Gran Turismo 5
Ryu ga Gotoku 4
Hokuto Musou
Resident Evil 5
Ryu ga Gotoku 3


Yes, the situation is that sad.

This is the real problem of Sony in Japan. They don't have a single first party title able to reach 500k.

Nintendo has several sagas able to do it, no matter the console. So Nintendo can always count to a fixed userbase that will support their hardware no matter what third parties do. But Sony, if Capcom, Konami and Square decide to not bet on his platform, is doomed, in Japan.
 

sphinx

the piano man
In comparison to the PSP and PS3 list above, I would like to add that the PS2 had 70 titles which sold 500k or more in its lifetime, and 17 of them sold over a million copies. The PS1 also had 70 titles which sold 500k or more, and 18 of them sold over a million copies.

Food for thought.

who is to blame? Japanese gamers and their apathy or the hardware and its offerings?

EDIT: The DS numbers point to the answer..
 

Kai

Member
I for one am satisfied with the 3DS - but if Iggy released a 2D castlevania on the Vita I would buy one in a second..... That awesome screen is begging for an amazing iggyvania.

Same reason I own a PSP - bought it the day SOTN was released on it with the remade Dracula X game.
 
I think it's telling that SE's only Vita-exclusive title (Army Corps of Hell) looks like it started development on PSP, and probably did. Lord of Apocalypse and Final Fantasy X are clearly afterthought ports.

I don't think they have enough faith in the platform to actually dedicate any real time/money to it, and with these sales they'd be right to. I would be very surprised if they have anything at all in the pipeline, and I think the same thing is happening with most developers. They had cold feet to begin with, and as they see poor sales they feel validated. That's what's going to kill the Vita going forward, unless there's some sales miracle worldwide in February.

Or unless there actually are a decent handful of big-budget, high-quality third-party exclusives in development for the system that just weren't announced in 2011.

I don't expect that to actually be the case, but it isn't much less likely than Vita becoming a dudebro-fueled success in the West.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
But surely Shenmue 3 will change the wind for Vita? Who's with me?!?!

XD

Seriously, now. There's just one game right now which sells over 500k and which still hasn't been announced for any platform: the rumoured next step in the Phantasy Star franchise, Phantasy Star Victory, rumoured to be released on Vita. Really, it's been a while since we heard news about PS brand on portables. When's Online 2 out? Probably, we'll hear more news about it after its release.
I think that you forgot about this :)

whatsshenmue-7-e1314204864623.jpg


(how much did Shenmue actually sell in Japan? I cant imagine that it sold tons)

But Phantasy Star Victory is a good candidate. I had forgotten about that game.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
Or unless there actually are a decent handful of big-budget, high-quality third-party exclusives in development for the system that just weren't announced in 2011.

I don't expect that to actually be the case, but it isn't much less likely than Vita becoming a dudebro-fueled success in the West.

Dudebros play 360's and have iPhones. They don't give a fuck about Vita. This is the situation Sony has put themselves into. No one is going to buy a Vita for Call of Duty because they will play it on 360, no one is going to buy a Vita as a high end tech device because they have an iPhone. And they're not even going to touch Nintendo's "blue ocean" market. They're fucked.
 
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