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[electroplankton]

Yeah uh pretty much nothing lights the charts like Mario. So your point is basically, oh yeah so the best selling series of all time? Yeah two IPs that started this gen have nowhere close to the amount of sales!

Uncharted sells fine on the PS3, will be interesting to see how it sells on Vita. I really don't think Resistance is going to do anything on the Vita.

We have already seen how bad a portable Resistance was; Uncharted is surely the most interesting game on Vita, but we have to see if people are willing to buy it after the third chapter on PS3, and if it has a status of system seller.

 

[Dragon]

I think the point is, Uncharted sells well but isn't a massive system seller (Some people touts it as huge advantage for Vita, I really think it isn't gonna do much). Resistance is a mediocre seller anyway so it isn't gonna do much on Vita that's for sure.

Not saying the system doesn't have nice launch games, but you won't see many people rush to buy the system because it has Hot Shots Golf, Ridge Racer and Dynasty Warrior on it.

Seems like a moving target to me. The system hasn't even launched yet and since Nintendo dropped the price on the 3DS everyone is incredibly pessimistic about the Vita, even in these threads, PSP's strongest region. Strikes me as a bit premature, especially considering the turnaround Nintendo just experienced. Kinda cracks me up!

 

[Father_Brain]

Seems like a moving target to me. The system hasn't even launched yet and since Nintendo dropped the price on the 3DS everyone is incredibly pessimistic about the Vita, even in these threads, PSP's strongest region. Strikes me as a bit premature, especially considering the turnaround Nintendo just experienced. Kinda cracks me up!

It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic about the near-term prospects of a system that has literally no exclusive big guns for the Japanese market (other than HSG6) announced for it. Things may look very different a year or so from now, but one can't exactly make predictions based on software that doesn't officially exist yet.

 

[Alrus]

Seems like a moving target to me. The system hasn't even launched yet and since Nintendo dropped the price on the 3DS everyone is incredibly pessimistic about the Vita, even in these threads, PSP's strongest region. Strikes me as a bit premature, especially considering the turnaround Nintendo just experienced. Kinda cracks me up!

With what we know right now, I find it perfectly sensible to be pessimistic about Vita's ability to keep selling past it launch. Software announcement may come later in, but we don't know anything about that. I think the situation will be similar to what the 3DS faced past its launch, except there won't be a new Mario Kart, Mario and Inazuma Eleven to brighten its future.

 

[donny2112]

No reason other than the fact that Tales of games are very front loaded.

And PS3 series entries have typically been more frontloaded than their predecessors.

everyone is incredibly pessimistic about the Vita, even in these threads, PSP's strongest region.

The elephant in the room is that the reason it is PSP's strongest region is the turnaround that Monster Hunter Portable series gave to it that led to more third-parties choosing PSP for their games. And even then, the PSP is still not anywhere near what DS was selling in software. If the best that PSP has done is still well below what the DS did in software and the principal reason for the turnaround is now on another platform, then the successor seems to have some significant issues that it doesn't seem to have any games coming out soon that can overcome.

In other words, there're very healthy reasons to be pessimistic about Vita.

Strikes me as a bit premature, especially considering the turnaround Nintendo just experienced. Kinda cracks me up!

So maybe Vita will get an 11K yen price drop near launch and Dragon Quest will be exclusively on Vita? Because that's the kind of stuff that just hit 3DS to cause its turnaround.

Stuff doesn't just happen without a reason. Until there's a reason otherwise, pessimism for Vita is well-placed.

 

[BowieZ]

When is it considered reasonable to begin predicting holiday sales numbers?

 

[test_account]

When is it considered reasonable to begin predicting holiday sales numbers?

I'd say from now. We already know the whole (pretty much at least) 3DS line up for the rest of the year.

 

[Ruud_Luiten]

Even a #1 game selling 263,000 cannot bump Wii hardware sales much...

Wii got a 50% hardware bump, which is alot....

 

[Dragon]

The elephant in the room is that the reason it is PSP's strongest region is the turnaround that Monster Hunter Portable series gave to it that led to more third-parties choosing PSP for their games. And even then, the PSP is still not anywhere near what DS was selling in software. If the best that PSP has done is still well below what the DS did in software and the principal reason for the turnaround is now on another platform, then the successor seems to have some significant issues that it doesn't seem to have any games coming out soon that can overcome.

In other words, there're very healthy reasons to be pessimistic about Vita.

Strikes me as interesting that I didn't see many of the people being as pessimistic around the launch of the 3DS.

So maybe Vita will get an 11K yen price drop near launch and Dragon Quest will be exclusively on Vita? Because that's the kind of stuff that just hit 3DS to cause its turnaround.

Stuff doesn't just happen without a reason. Until there's a reason otherwise, pessimism for Vita is well-placed.

Perhaps. Just look at the PS3 and how much the Slim helped it after the first couple of years. Before that all most people talked about in this thread was how close it was to Gamecube sales.

You're talking about a successor to a piece of hardware that sold 70 million units worldwide. Just because the DS was a monster and the 3DS looks to be along that same path doesn't mean that the Vita can't be just as successful. It's not all just Monster Hunter. SE support will go a long way as well.

 

[Mpl90]

I hope we'll get some first impressions about how this week's main games are selling soon.
Too curious about Ico/SotC and, above all, about Tits: The game.
Dark Souls seems destined to have a very good first week.

 

[Fafalada]

Until there's a reason otherwise, pessimism for Vita is well-placed.

Past precedent suggests the main worry for both handhelds is whether there will be early accessible piracy or not.
That's aside for the question of hw-sales, which Vita still has to prove as well.

 

[gerg]

Strikes me as interesting that I didn't see many of the people being as pessimistic around the launch of the 3DS.

Well, that's because the 3DS' predecessor was the DS. However, any optimism was slightly dampened when the 3DS' price point was announced, and the device's lacklustre sales were certainly recognised when they became apparent.

You're talking about a successor to a piece of hardware that sold 70 million units worldwide. Just because the DS was a monster and the 3DS looks to be along that same path doesn't mean that the Vita can't be just as successful.

If we're considering whether or not the Vita will sell lots of hardware but comparatively little software, then questions of its success just feed back into whether or not we can consider that the PSP itself was successful.

It's not all just Monster Hunter. SE support will go a long way as well.

Except Square-Enix is seemingly supporting the 3DS to a comparative degree.

 

[Father_Brain]

Strikes me as interesting that I didn't see many of the people being as pessimistic around the launch of the 3DS.

It probably helped that Nintendo, unlike Sony, has multiple IP that sell tens of millions worldwide and are guaranteed to stay exclusive, and that it had a number of exclusive third-party big guns announced before it even launched (RE:R, KH3D, most of the Level-5 titles).

You're talking about a successor to a piece of hardware that sold 70 million units worldwide. Just because the DS was a monster and the 3DS looks to be along that same path doesn't mean that the Vita can't be just as successful. It's not all just Monster Hunter. SE support will go a long way as well.

Which SE support? A modestly-budgeted Pikmin-inspired action title? An uprezzed PSP port? An uprezzed PS2 port that's not even Vita-exclusive? Or are you just assuming that it will get SE support comparable to what PSP got, on the basis of... absolutely nothing that's been said or announced thus far?

 

[electroplankton]

Seems like a moving target to me. The system hasn't even launched yet and since Nintendo dropped the price on the 3DS everyone is incredibly pessimistic about the Vita, even in these threads, PSP's strongest region. Strikes me as a bit premature, especially considering the turnaround Nintendo just experienced. Kinda cracks me up!

Nevertheless it is true that Vita has not seen big announcements for Japan so far; 3DS lacked of software during the first months as well, but at least it had very big games announced as Kingdom Hearts 3D and Resident Evil Revelations (turned out to be almost main chapters in the same vein as Birth by Sleep and Code Veronica) and a very big first party presence.

 

[test_account]

Wii got a 50% hardware bump, which is alot....

Percentage doesnt always mean that much, it is the actual numbers that matters the most. I.e Xbox 360 have probably seen a 100% hardware bump going from 1.5k to 3k. Wii getting a 5k increase is something, but i personally i dont think it is that much.

 

[manueldelalas]

Wii got a 50% hardware bump, which is alot....

DS Lite got a 50% hardware bump...

 

[Laguna]

Strikes me as interesting that I didn't see many of the people being as pessimistic around the launch of the 3DS.

The biggest difference is that 3DS had some of the bigger 3rd party games announced and shown pre launch (be it Capcom with 2 Resident Evil, Level5 with Layton and other titles and SquareEnix with Kingdom Hearts) and Nintendos own heavy hitters that help selling systems + good but by no mean system sellers (actually niche) like Ridge Racer, Street Fighter, Blaz Blue, Samurai Warriors, PES..

Vita on the other hand honestly just doesn´t have a lot of system sellers so far. It offers mostly relative smaller franchises like Ridge Racer, Blaz Blue, Katamari, Street Fighter, Persona and Co.. Uncharted just isn´t that popular in Japan and the "biggest" games so far are Dynasty Warriors, Hot Shot Golf and a Final Fantasy X port.


To make it even more clear here a list of games with a substential sales potential (in Japan) that have been shown before the platform released (3DS) and Vita up till now


potential 300k+ sellers

3DS

1. Resident Evil Revelation
2. Kid Icarus
3. Slime 3
4. Professor Layton vs Phoenix

Vita

1. Hot Shot Golf

potential 500k+sellers

3DS

1. Layton
2. Paper Mario
3. Kingdom Hearts
4. Zelda OoT
5. Nintendogs
6. Inazuma Eleven Go

Vita

1. FFX (I list it even knowing it actually doesn´t qualify for "beeing shown")

potential million sellers

3DS

1. Animal Crossing
2. Mario 3D Land

Vita
none


potential multi-million sellers

3DS

1. Mario Kart 7

Vita
none


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That Sony lost Monster Hunter for Vita to their direct competitor 3DS doesn´t actually help and this is among the biggest reason why some aren´t that optimistic.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Animal Crossing and Tomodachi Collection are Multi Million titles.

 

[Laguna]

Animal Crossing and Tomodachi Collection are Multi Million titles.

Yes, but afaik Tomodachi Collection wasn´t announced before 3DS was released.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Which SE support? A modestly-budgeted Pikmin-inspired action title? An uprezzed PSP port? An uprezzed PS2 port that's not even Vita-exclusive? Or are you just assuming that it will get SE support comparable to what PSP got, on the basis of... absolutely nothing that's been said or announced thus far?

Yeah, SE's Vita support isn't exactly inspiring. I'd actually say Crisis Core for PSP being announced prelaunch was a significantly bigger deal and stronger show of support.

 

[walking fiend]

Animal Crossing and Tomodachi Collection are Multi Million titles.

if Nintendo Dogs + Catz is anything to go by, not unless they substantially build upon the previous game.

The reason that games like NSMB or MK manage to sell millions, despite not being that different in mechanisms from previous iterations, is that their content is not mainly created by users, or so I believe.

 

[Grimmy]

Yeah, SE's Vita support isn't exactly inspiring. I'd actually say Crisis Core for PSP being announced prelaunch was a significantly bigger deal and stronger show of support.

It wasn't announced pre-launch.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It wasn't announced pre-launch.

Uh, yes it was? Announced at E3 2004.

 

[cw_sasuke]

if Nintendo Dogs is anything to go by, not unless they substantially build upon the previous game.

Userbase=0 and a 25K Yen was too much too stomach for such a title. 3DS Userbase will be way bigger when those 2012 community titles hit. Which would be the next point ....those games will benefit from street pass, i don't know why anyone who owns or already played nintendogs would have to buy the 3DS version.

 

[Dragon]

Which SE support? A modestly-budgeted Pikmin-inspired action title? An uprezzed PSP port? An uprezzed PS2 port that's not even Vita-exclusive? Or are you just assuming that it will get SE support comparable to what PSP got, on the basis of... absolutely nothing that's been said or announced thus far?

Just like all we all assume things in this thread and others, yes I'm doing so. Yes I assume that SE will support the Vita, it's right up their alley for their more 'console' based handheld games, if you know what I mean.

And don't hate on FFX HD when one of the biggest games released for the 3DS so far is a port of a Nintendo 64 game. I get it, you don't agree, based on past history. Which I think is stupid when predicting the future. That's just, like, your opinion man.

No. It was announced in October 2004.

edit - sorry that WOULD make it pre-launch. I forgot when the PSP came out in Japan.

Yeah rpgamer has it on the 27th.
http://www.rpgamer.com/news/Q4-2004/102704a.html

Assumption: because the PSP had more announced third party software before its launch then the Vita, the Vita isn't going to be supported as well.

 

[Grimmy]

Uh, yes it was? Announced at E3 2004.

No. It was announced in October 2004.

edit - sorry that WOULD make it pre-launch. I forgot when the PSP came out in Japan.

 

[Alexios]

a port of a Nintendo 64 game.

Remake. Quite different. Like all those FF remakes on DS, which weren't the same as ports like on VC and everywhere else.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't know how much of the 3DS increase is from the Tri G announcement, but I do think it's unlike previous announcements people are comparing it to--like the Tri announcement for Wii. In this case it's a major announcement of something arriving just around the corner, within 100 days, as opposed to some vague future time.

Famitsu has not updated the rankings yet for this week either.

Either something's bad is going to happen or they are changing their system.

I see again the generic Top 30 link doesn't work, but another Google search with modified dates ( 【ゲームソフト販売本数ランキング TOP30】集計期間：2011年09月05日～2011年09月11日 ) finds it.

potential million sellers
3DS
Animal Crossing

potential multi-million sellers
3DS
Mario Kart 7
Mario 3D Land

Considering DS Animal Crossing was only bested by Pokémon and 2D Mario, I'd bump it up. Maybe trade its place with Mario, since while 3D Mario going multimillion is possible, it has no precedent.

 

[Pureauthor]

It wasn't announced pre-launch.

Yes, it most certainly was. I don't remember the launch details, but I remember the stupid 'FF3DS vs Crisis Core' debates.

 

[mclem]

Yes, but afaik Tomodachi Collection wasn´t announced before 3DS was released.

Neither was Luigi's Mansion. Unless you count the musings along the lines of "Well, we were experimenting with 3D tech in the Gamecube".

 

[Dragon]

Remake. Quite different. Like all those FF remakes on DS, which weren't the same as ports like on VC and everywhere else.

You're just arguing semantics now, I mean FFX HD was announced as a remake from what I remember, ICO and SotC are announced as remakes as well and mostly they're just touching up textures and bumping up the resolution.

 

[Alexios]

You're just arguing semantics now

Not really. What they announce it as doesn't matter. If it's the PS2 game in HD, maybe with a few fixed up textures here and there, it's a port. OoT has extensive changes, all new textures, models, and added or changed geometry in plenty areas. Even (all?) the 2D indoors have been made 3D. Calling it a port is silly, not semantics.

Also, the 3DS isn't exactly a DS, which still got Square games, it can do prettier games and any kind of game Square does. Hell, the PSP managed that decently, even, and 3DS is quite beyond it. The only difference is if you prefer higher fidelity over 3D, the rest would be more or less the same game on either system, say with better shaders/more geometry and such on Vita. I just don't see how your very own personal preferences are passed as what's more suitable for Square.

 

[electroplankton]

You're just arguing semantics now, I mean FFX HD was announced as a remake from what I remember, ICO and SotC are announced as remakes as well and mostly they're just touching up textures and bumping up the resolution.

..and they're also on PS3 (ICO/SotC even before than Vita version).

 

[Cipherr]

Remake. Quite different. Like all those FF remakes on DS, which weren't the same as ports like on VC and everywhere else.

Nah man, that FF3 title on DS is a much more significant level of remake than OOT and Starfox are. By far. Both may indeed be remakes, but its very clear that there are different tiers of remakes.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

No. It was announced in October 2004.

edit - sorry that WOULD make it pre-launch. I forgot when the PSP came out in Japan.

No it wasn't. It was announced first at E3 that year (along with Advent Children UMD).

 

[Alexios]

Nah man, that FF3 title on DS is a much more significant level of remake than OOT and Starfox are. By far. Both may indeed be remakes, but its very clear that there are different tiers of remakes.

Well, it's a much more faithful remake I guess. I mean, the original FF titles weren't even in 3D so of course the difference is more vast as the content is 100% new while there is plenty clearly obvious original content in OoT 3D, but it's also clear the majority of it is enhanced beyond a mere resolution bump the developers barely have to do any work for or just a few replaced textures here and there, making it an obvious remake, imo.

 

[Dragon]

Not really.

Yes you are, you're disputing what I mean by remake vs. port. It doesn't change my point though, that the guy was originally denigrating FFX for whatever reason.

I also don't see what makes Vita more suitable for Square's games. The 3DS isn't exactly a DS, which still got Square games, it can do prettier games and any kind of game Square does. Hell, the PSP managed that decently, even, and 3DS is quite beyond it. The only difference is if you prefer higher resolution over 3D, the rest would be more or less the same on either system, say with better shaders/more geometry on Vita. I don't see how your preferences show what's more suitable for Square really.

Well the Vita has a more diverse set of inputs, has a better set of social features, and also has a more robust store so SE can sell stupid DLC. I would say the store is a big advantage, buying stupid character costumes the way Scamco does it seems to be something I could see them do. I can list the tech advantages of the Vita but you already know those. It's not just resolution though.

I want to be clear, I'm not saying that the Vita is going to challenge the 3DS, it seems a lot of you seem to be comparing it to the 3DS. I"m simply saying I think it's going to be as successful as the PSP. Comparing it to the 3DS and saying it won't is silly.

No it wasn't. It was announced first at E3 that year (along with Advent Children UMD).

If it was at E3, rpgamer would have had something before October I would think. So would Gamespot.

http://au.gamespot.com/psp/rpg/cris...ntasy-vii-spin-off-coming-to-the-psp?mode=all

 

[Alexios]

Well the Vita has a more diverse set of inputs

What can it do for the types of games Square make that you were mentioning? I assumed you meant JRPGs and stuff, if you meant something super quirky they did that one time which happens to absolutely require a dual analog setup in ways the 3DS touch screen can't hope to emulate (though I can't think of any), then I missed your point. Though there's also that add on, I don't think Square will care for its looks as long as people are willing to get it. And if they aren't, then it's clear they don't need that type of control considering the heavy hitter it arrives with. The jury is still out so it still seems you equal your preference to what Square needs.

has a better set of social features

Um okay, if they want to bring FFXIV to it, I guess. Or not, because FFXIV is all in its own backend, it has nothing to do with first party stuff, since it's multiplatform, so, um. Okay. I guess they may have some ideas for social gaming stuff. But that's not the type of games they've been doing for the most part which is what you mentioned in that post.

and also has a more robust store so SE can sell stupid DLC.

Does it? My experience is only with the PSP store which isn't anything radical and can be quite fiddly especially in finding DLC rather than when I'm just browsing for the latest games/discounts (which are also annoying to find among crappy artist content or whatever those things I constantly saw advertised are). I imagine Square would be more eager to put a simple in-game interface regardless of what system they put their game on, so people can get to it instantly without additional clutter.

Oh, and the 3DS comes with storage out of the box.

 

[Father_Brain]

Uh, yes it was? Announced at E3 2004.

Late October 2004, actually. So yeah, there's a chance that Sony will pull something similar out of its hat before the Japanese launch. But after the TGS press conference debacle, I'm not betting on it.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Well the Vita has a more diverse set of inputs, has a better set of social features, and also has a more robust store so SE can sell stupid DLC. I would say the store is a big advantage, buying stupid character costumes the way Scamco does it seems to be something I could see them do. I can list the tech advantages of the Vita but you already know those. It's not just resolution though.

The 3DS shop infrastructure just recently brought a paid DLC component for developers to use. Besides, Namco even sells DLC on Wii, PSP and DSi, this really isn't some platform specific advantage we're talking about, basically every current system supports paid DLC..

Late October 2004, actually. So yeah, there's a chance that Sony will pull something similar out of its hat before the Japanese launch. But after the TGS press conference debacle, I'm not betting on it.

That's... odd. There's multiple references to it being announced at E3 that year, it's even on the game's Wikipedia page.

 

[walking fiend]

Late October 2004, actually. So yeah, there's a chance that Sony will pull something similar out of its hat before the Japanese launch. But after the TGS press conference debacle, I'm not betting on it.

MH 5, exclusively for Vita.

 

[Laguna]

Considering DS Animal Crossing was only bested by Pokémon and 2D Mario, I'd bump it up. Maybe trade its place with Mario, since while 3D Mario going multimillion is possible, it has no precedent.

Thanks. I knew that Animal Crossing was a multi-million seller but I just didn´t want to overestimate AC. But I really should just switch it with Mario Land.

@mclem
Yes, it was announced this year, my bad.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Well the Vita has a more diverse set of inputs, has a better set of social features, and also has a more robust store so SE can sell stupid DLC. I would say the store is a big advantage, buying stupid character costumes the way Scamco does it seems to be something I could see them do. I can list the tech advantages of the Vita but you already know those. It's not just resolution though.

The Vita also doesn't have internal memory (Though Namco could probably just do key downloads that unlocked things on the carts)

 

[Father_Brain]

And don't hate on FFX HD when one of the biggest games released for the 3DS so far is a port of a Nintendo 64 game. I get it, you don't agree, based on past history. Which I think is stupid when predicting the future. That's just, like, your opinion man.

I consider OOT3D an enhanced port, but it isn't a third-party title, is still only on 3DS, and wasn't announced as though it were the most significant 3DS title in the works from a publisher that was one of DS' biggest supporters.

 

[Road]

I see again the generic Top 30 link doesn't work, but another Google search with modified dates ( 【ゲームソフト販売本数ランキング TOP30】集計期間：2011年09月05日～2011年09月11日 ) finds it.

They updated later instead of the usual 9 am (Japan time).

If you don't know, www.famitsu.com/biz/ has the links for the current rankings easily available. Maybe you can figure out some way to automatically grab them from that page.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That's... odd. There's multiple references to it being announced at E3 that year, it's even on the game's Wikipedia page.

When the disagreement came up earlier I checked Wikipedia to see what it said. It said announced at E3 2004, but the nearest source was to an article from E3 2005 saying it was the first announcement of the game. So I'm thinking it's a combination of wiki editor misreading the source, which had bad knowledge to begin with?

They updated later instead of the usual 9 am (Japan time).

If you don't know, www.famitsu.com/biz/ has the links for the current rankings easily available. Maybe you can figure out some way to automatically grab them from that page.

Thanks, didn't know about that page. A bit more hassle, but totally doable.

 

[Alrus]

And don't hate on FFX HD when one of the biggest games released for the 3DS so far is a port of a Nintendo 64 game. I get it, you don't agree, based on past history. Which I think is stupid when predicting the future. That's just, like, your opinion man.

Well let's talk about FFX HD on vita. We can even compare it to Ocarina of Time. Both are relatively significant titles remade and just like OoT, FFX might sell decently well. But in the end, OoT didn't cause a long term improvement of 3DS sales. I doubt FFX is gonna have a long lasting effect, considering it's also multiplat.

And well, SE announced an all new KH made by the team who did Bbs for the 3DS before it release. Meanwhile what they announced for the Vita were this remake/port, a low budget pikmin clone and a sequel to a title that sold pretty badly on the PSP (Lords of Apocalypse). What does that tell us? In my opinion, they aren't willing to do a risky project on the Vita until it has proven it's a viable platform.

 

[Kazerei]

Strikes me as interesting that I didn't see many of the people being as pessimistic around the launch of the 3DS.

Wait, do you guys really have such short memories? Too expensive, no games, short battery life, 3D hurts eyes, etc. Lots of pessimism, especially after the NGP/Vita unveiling early in the year.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

SE listwarz

Nintendo 3DS
-Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
-Bust-A-Move Universe (Arika)
-Codename: Chocobo Racing 3D (h.a.n.d.)
-Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D (Tose Software?)
-Heroes of Ruin (n-Space)
-Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance
-Slime Morimori Dragon Quest 3: The Great Pirate Ship and Tails Troupe (Tose Software?)
-Theatrhythm Final Fantasy (indieszero)

PlayStation Vita
-Army Corps of Hell (Entersphere)
-Lord of Apocalypse (Access Games)
-Final Fantasy X HD

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

And PS3 series entries have typically been more frontloaded than their predecessors.

And games with first print only special bonus are even more front-loaded(look at Black Rock Shooter) etc.