i give it 3 Posts till someone post the amazing list of PS3 Ports that will push the PS4 in 2015
Eh, I'd say port and cross-gen is a totally different concept, but we'll see
Still better than not getting any third party game tbh.
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Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2014 (Oct 13 - Oct 19)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Eh, I'd say port and cross-gen is a totally different concept, but we'll see
If they don't get crazy and release it next year, I can see it happening.
LEVEL-5's big problem always has been that they milk the shit out of their games.
Isn't the December version is another variation of YW2? If you add them altogether YW2 shall surpass MH I guess.
Edit: Oh you mean next entry like YW3, well I still think it may surpass MH.
Current Monster Hunter or Monster Hunter at its peak?
Sectorseven
Member
Can PS4 hit one million by the end of the year?
metalslimer
Member
Current Monster Hunter, although it gets tricky when dealing with the expansions come in.
shinra-bansho
Member
Obsolescence and saturation of the only market for it. Hardware is an investment in both current titles and future potential.
Unless you absolutely need Nintendo's console output then it's not a compelling value proposition. And if you do need it, then you probably have the system already considering nearly all the big staples are already out bar a few already announced.
You shouldn't look at Famitsu...
That would require about a 26k a week average, so not a chance.
Wii U is 18 units above hitting the 3k zone on famitsu (best tracker).
theprodigy
Member
When's the holiday bundle coming out for Wii U?
You mean MK8's bundle? November 13, same day as Captain Toad.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Hino will be pushing sequels and expansions every six months, so the answer is a safe no.
Well, I feel it basically comes down to how much they can sell in 6 months if you're talking about standalones, since their schedule seems to be a new game every year with an expansion in the middle.
If you add the expansion in, it would likely easily beat it, though then the question raises of how we should count Monster Hunter expansions.
If we just want to count units sold per year though, I suspect it would be notably in Level 5's favor for at least a while since they're releasing products at a much faster rate, similar to how Assassin's Creed is likely outselling GTA by quite a bit even if GTA V sells more than any individual AC game, though in this case the individual entry gap is not nearly as large between Yokai Watch and Monster Hunter as it is between AC and GTA.
Eternal Gamer
Member
This is what Bayonetta looks like in Japan.
short legs
I need to wash my eyes.
metalslimer
Member
Does it even matter? Wii U is not going to start selling better next year. It will crash and burn like usual after the holidays except with no Mario Kart or other big game to bail it out. Japanese 3rd parties are done with the thing. And honestly, I doubt 200k Wii U sales during the holiday month would even affect Nintendo's financials by a huge amount. Basically, mediocre or good holiday, what's the point?
KillerMan91
Member
Customers between various Nintendo titles overlap a lot without Wii like casual base. Gamecube had also all of those big Nintendo hitters and it sold only 4 million in Japan.
It's fucked. This christmas changes nothing. Smash changes nothing. It's fucked.
If the PS4 kept selling what it sold this week, it would take 31 weeks to pass 1 million.
Presumably it will go up from here at some point, but it will have to go up a lot to get that down to 10 weeks.
Bright future in Japan? I don't see it. Better outlook than the Wii U sure, but still awful by previous generations standards for sure.
Yep, certainly all factors in the decision to buy a console - even if 2015 looks like the first consistent year in a long time for Nintendo if the 1 game a month rumors are true. Makes a little more sense now.
Agreed.
Unless Splatoon turns out to be the 0.1% mega hit that MonHun/Youkai Watch became then as a whole Wii U utterly done for.
FreedomFighter
Member
People thought the same with PS4 and look what happened! There is a chance...
It's utterly and completely unlikely
Graphics Horse
Member
Probably depends on how much Japan still loves Call of Duty, and GTAV.
Should be how much they want it on PS4. The ps3 versions on COD sold consistently around 200K and GTAV something like 700k. But im not sure they'll have any reason to upgrade to PS4 when they can play COD on ps3 and already played V on ps3.
3DS is selling in the same ballpark as last year, where it had great sales due to the first Pokemon entry and the first new Monster Hunter release in a very short timeframe, it is also outselling everything combined by a huge margin, basically the past few weeks had a very good performance especially for a system in its fourth year, thanks to MH4G and the revision.
PSV worse than expected pre-TGS and Sony in general is doing bad in Japan. I didn´t expect much from Chaos Rings 3 but I´m really surprised that it ended up selling this bad.
PSV worse than expected pre-TGS and Sony in general is doing bad in Japan. I didn´t expect much from Chaos Rings 3 but I´m really surprised that it ended up selling this bad.
Pennywise83
Banned
PSV is closing the gap YOY with those abysmal sales. Last year's November and December the hw kept respectable weekly sales, always above 22k with a peak at 90k during PSVTV launch and 75k the last week of the year. Eventually, 2014 YTD might be very close to 2013 YTD, even though it had a way better first part of the year.
small44
Member
Ps4 would be dead in west if it didn't have COD,Fifa,Assasin Creed etc and the equivalent of those games in Japan are Fifanal Fantasy,Dragon quest which will come next years.
Ps4 will definitly sell well in 2015
Ok, time for Chaos Rings III's analysis.
The game's been released on October 16th, 2014 on iOS, Google Play and PSVita, both retail and PSN.
Now, before posting the download charts, a premise: it seems AppAnnie recently changed their tracking method, which is now more aligned to what's featured on both iOS and GP's store pages. What does that mean? Simple: in the past, we had the possibility to look at how an app, both paid and free, was doing in terms of downloads number compared to all other apps. But now, the only chart where both paid and free apps feature is the grossing one, while there are two separate charts for downloads: Free download chart and Paid download chart. This means that the following download charts highlight only Chaos Rings III's performance in both iOS and Android's Paid download charts, not Overall download charts.
Now, here's how Chaos Rings III is doing on Google Play
It had an awful first day, but then the game started rising, and kept on rising till yesterday, when it reached 16th on the Paid download chart.
Now, how does this translate in terms of actual sales? Well, we have a tool for games on Android: GP's game pages themselves.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/...ssc=45742459.6.1413987654002&__hsfp=214601589
As you can see, the game is now between 1,000 and 5,000 copies sold, after almost a week on the market. Actually, I've followed the game's page in the past few days (GP updates their games' totals daily), and this is how it went, more or less
October 17th, 428th Overall - 50 < x < 100 copies sold
October 18th, 65th Overall - 100 < x < 500 copies sold
October 19th, 36th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold
October 20th, 24th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold
October 21st, 16th Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold
So, this means that going from 428th to 65th is enough to go from between 50 and 100 copies sold to between 100 and 500 copies sold (probably more towards 500, given how sales progress), while going up to 36th make apps go over 500 units sold. Then, despite going higher and higher, only in the third day in top 40, when it actually entered top 20, it went above 1,000 copies sold.
Again, this is just the Paid download chart, not the overall one as it used to be.
Also, these are the corresponding Grossing Ranks
Given what said earlier about sales and that it's priced 2,800 Yen, we could get an idea of the possible numbers behind those ranks.
October 18th, 369th Overall - 100 < x < 500 copies sold --> Yen 280,000 < x < Yen 1,400,000 grossed
October 19th, 288th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 20th, 238th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 21st, 197th Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold --> Yen 2,800,000 < x < Yen 14,000,000 grossed
Since those grossing numbers refer to totals up to each day, we can say that going from 369th to 288th means going over Yen 1,400,000 of total gross, and that it takes two days and going in top 200 on the third day to gross over Yen 2,800,000. So, those two days saw grossing being less than Yen 1,400,000
Also, Grossing charts feature both Free and Paid apps, so this is actually how every app earns when ranking like this in Google Play's Grossing chart.
Hopefully, this kind of analysis can be useful in getting a better look on what those charts actually mean. Unfortunately, though, given what said earlier about Download charts, those now give us just a small picture of the overall Download rankings.
The game's been released on October 16th, 2014 on iOS, Google Play and PSVita, both retail and PSN.
Now, before posting the download charts, a premise: it seems AppAnnie recently changed their tracking method, which is now more aligned to what's featured on both iOS and GP's store pages. What does that mean? Simple: in the past, we had the possibility to look at how an app, both paid and free, was doing in terms of downloads number compared to all other apps. But now, the only chart where both paid and free apps feature is the grossing one, while there are two separate charts for downloads: Free download chart and Paid download chart. This means that the following download charts highlight only Chaos Rings III's performance in both iOS and Android's Paid download charts, not Overall download charts.
Now, here's how Chaos Rings III is doing on Google Play
It had an awful first day, but then the game started rising, and kept on rising till yesterday, when it reached 16th on the Paid download chart.
Now, how does this translate in terms of actual sales? Well, we have a tool for games on Android: GP's game pages themselves.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/...ssc=45742459.6.1413987654002&__hsfp=214601589
As you can see, the game is now between 1,000 and 5,000 copies sold, after almost a week on the market. Actually, I've followed the game's page in the past few days (GP updates their games' totals daily), and this is how it went, more or less
October 17th, 428th Overall - 50 < x < 100 copies sold
October 18th, 65th Overall - 100 < x < 500 copies sold
October 19th, 36th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold
October 20th, 24th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold
October 21st, 16th Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold
So, this means that going from 428th to 65th is enough to go from between 50 and 100 copies sold to between 100 and 500 copies sold (probably more towards 500, given how sales progress), while going up to 36th make apps go over 500 units sold. Then, despite going higher and higher, only in the third day in top 40, when it actually entered top 20, it went above 1,000 copies sold.
Again, this is just the Paid download chart, not the overall one as it used to be.
Also, these are the corresponding Grossing Ranks
Given what said earlier about sales and that it's priced 2,800 Yen, we could get an idea of the possible numbers behind those ranks.
October 18th, 369th Overall - 100 < x < 500 copies sold --> Yen 280,000 < x < Yen 1,400,000 grossed
October 19th, 288th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 20th, 238th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 21st, 197th Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold --> Yen 2,800,000 < x < Yen 14,000,000 grossed
Since those grossing numbers refer to totals up to each day, we can say that going from 369th to 288th means going over Yen 1,400,000 of total gross, and that it takes two days and going in top 200 on the third day to gross over Yen 2,800,000. So, those two days saw grossing being less than Yen 1,400,000
Also, Grossing charts feature both Free and Paid apps, so this is actually how every app earns when ranking like this in Google Play's Grossing chart.
Hopefully, this kind of analysis can be useful in getting a better look on what those charts actually mean. Unfortunately, though, given what said earlier about Download charts, those now give us just a small picture of the overall Download rankings.
3DS reigns in Japan continues and it'll probably mantain like that pretty much until the end of the year now. Nice. Wii U however, those are quite low numbers what the hell? And they already have Bayo 2 and even a nice looking Fatal Frame game... Smash U can't come soon enough. Hope with this thursdays stream, the hype of Smash U can go up and increase some HW sales next week.
FullMetaltech
Member
Yikes for XB1. Triple digits and only about a month in. Overall seems like all hardware dropped for the week.
jamesinclair
Banned
Will the PS5 and Wii U 2 even launch in Japan?
It seems like a waste of money.
It seems like a waste of money.
Cool. I didn't know Nintendo had the charts on their site. Thanks.
All-time ranking from Nintendo with Famitsu download estimates:
1. Animal Crossing New Leaf
2. Pokémon AR Searcher
3. Monster Hunter 4 - 290k (missing nov-13)
4. Pokemon Battle Trozei - 166k (missing aug-14, sep-14. oct-14).
...
8. Super Smash Bros. for 3DS
...
15. Monster Hunter 4G
...
18. Tomodachi Collection
19. Kirby Fighters Z - 44k (missing sep-14, oct-14)
Do we know if Nintendo counts download cards in these rankings? Even including download cards, Kirby Fighters Z is at 55k. It seems low, but maybe it has sold a lot in september and october.
I think PS4 might have a future if the price gets dropped and games like FFXV are out.
Wii U 2.. first off, I hope the next device won't have the Wii name at all. Secondly, I agree that another traditional console won't work for Nintendo.
this is very likely the vita's peak year in japan (for the us that was 2012), like how it was for the 3ds last year. from now on you are going to see lower hardware sales and smaller software sales. developers are going from ps3/psv to psv/ps4 right now too. eventually it will just be ps4 or ps4/mobile.
just enjoy the ride. there's a little bit more gas left in the tank, but i wouldn't expect anything major for the system beyond 2016, and i'm including vita-centric hits like toukiden, persona, and danganronpa.
Of course they will, unless you're suggesting to stop launching in practically every country in the whole world. Japan even if both sell 3-4 million ltd will be in the top 10 in ltd for countries for those consoles. Just because Japan isnt one the top 3 anymore doesnt mean its completely worthless.
nothing's going to turn the platform around, but it will probably have a pretty decent holiday season. last year it did pretty well around that time and it had less attractive software and weaker bundles.
small44
Member
Final fantasy is not in 2015 but when it come it will help ps4 a lot but Dragon Quest: Heroes is in 2015
Games that will boost ps4 in 2015
Dragon quest:Heros
Resident Evil: Revelations
Yakuza 0
Persona 5
Metal Gear Solid V
I see 20-30k in normal weeks
Mockingbird
Member
wiiu sales are lowest due to the bundle announcement I imagine.
Also Type-0
So let me preface this by saying I don't think the 4DS will come out in 2015, as I don't feel the N3DS would exist if it was, but the arguments in favor of how well the 3DS is currently doing got me thinking.
If we look at what has gone right with the 3DS and the surrounding market conditions in their favor, what would have actually went wrong with launching the follow-up in 2015?
1.) The N3DS is selling very well, seemingly to a mix of new people (definitely buyers of the old model, plus people who were recently interested in one and decided to wait for this revision) and upgrading customers, so there's a strong demand for new hardware. There are even shortages on the new hardware because it's so popular.
2.) People are seemingly willing to still buy the old 3DS in notable quantities, even when the new hardware has the exact same MSRP.
3.) Yokai Watch is selling eighty gazillion copies despite coming out on a 6 month basis, and Monster Hunter and Pokemon are doing quite well to boot, so consumers don't seem to be upset with fast software release cycles on notable franchises.
4.) Given all the PSP/Vita, Vita/PS3, PS3/PS4, Vita/PS4, and Vita/PS3/PS4 software being announced, it seems that Japanese developers are perfectly fine making cross-generation software, or software that spans systems with notable power differences, so they would quite likely be willing to ship games that were on both 3DS and 4DS if Nintendo asked them to and assisted with making that easy to do.
5.) The cross-generation software mentioned above often did very well on the newer platform. Now, near the very beginning of the generation, it sometimes sold more on the earlier platforms, but the transition was pretty quick.
6.) Nintendo is working on N3DS exclusive software, so from a lost revenue perspective, they have to deal with selling to a lower install base whether that be N3DS owners or 4DS owners anyway. There's also nothing stopping them from making their own software cross-gen.
7.) If their hope is to find mobile hardware that can absorb Wii U technology, it's already here. The Tegra K1 can run Trine 2 at basically the same settings, resolution, and performance as the 360 and PS3 versions (and they're not even using a low level API to do it), and its hardware feature set is based off of Kepler, which until a month ago was NVIDIA's newest line of GPUs. This means that it has the full feature set of the PS4/XB1 even, and is beyond both the Wii U and 3DS in this respect, so it would be able to accept basically all modern game engines and middleware. The devices it's in (like the Shield Tablet) are only $300 too with a healthy profit margin, so it can presumably come down quite a bit in a smaller handheld with mass production.
8.) As per the technology note above, the system would be able to accept all the Japanese Vita, PS3, and smartphone games in development, and given what they look like (and are often cross-gen with), the notable majority of PS4 titles to boot.
9.) Internally, Nintendo's Wii U technology would largely be compatible with this system. They could also scale down their art assets a bit (3D modeling programs even have functionalities to help you strip down polygon counts efficiently) and use them as a basis for 4DS games that had higher end graphics. EA recently ran Plants vs. Zombies: Garden Warfare with a 1.3 million polygon scene on a notably less capable Apple tablet using Metal as an example of what it could do, so I can't imagine it would be a herculean task for Nintendo to get their stuff working on a better system. Being able to take Mario Kart 8 and Super Mario 3D Land's technology and art as a base would help them be able to quickly launch new iterations to support their newest system.
10.) Given how cross-gen is going in the West for the PS4/XB1, I don't think they need to be worried consumers wouldn't accept cross-gen titles abroad either if they felt it was quality content.
11.) Speaking of the West, this has the benefit of getting a new system out in a market where the 3DS is having notably more troubles and also making it compatible with the technology Western developers use so they can get more support from mobile titles and indie devs, even if they still don't capture big publishers.
12.) For 3DS owners, given how many Japanese developers are making cross-gen games on PlayStation systems, I suspect they would still support the 3DS for a notable time after launch (even if they launch it quite a bit after 2015), so it's unlikely customers who bought the 3DS will have a lack of content. Given what's been happening, I don't think it's crazy to think that there would still be lots of 3DS games for 1-2 years after the 4DS's release. From that perspective, if someone was able to buy new games in Fall 2017 for a system that launched in 2011, I don't think they'd be very upset.
13.) We've seen hardware continue to sell after a new system releases, sometimes with the old system even overtaking the new one. As mentioned earlier, we do see people buying older models even when newer ones are out for the 3DS itself, so I'm not sure how many overall 3DS sales would even get cut out in this equation given how it's been doing earlier in the year. Beyond that, is there actually a notable benefit to selling the N3DS over the 4DS from Nintendo's perspective? If they lose money on the 4DS, perhaps, but otherwise it seems like they're still capturing the same audience whether they buy an N3DS or 4DS.
So even if we ignore any issues the 3DS is facing and look overwhelmingly at their successes and opportunities, as an honest question, what would have been the pitfalls of launching the 4DS in Fall 2015? Am I missing anything that would have notably outweighed the potential benefits?
If we look at what has gone right with the 3DS and the surrounding market conditions in their favor, what would have actually went wrong with launching the follow-up in 2015?
1.) The N3DS is selling very well, seemingly to a mix of new people (definitely buyers of the old model, plus people who were recently interested in one and decided to wait for this revision) and upgrading customers, so there's a strong demand for new hardware. There are even shortages on the new hardware because it's so popular.
2.) People are seemingly willing to still buy the old 3DS in notable quantities, even when the new hardware has the exact same MSRP.
3.) Yokai Watch is selling eighty gazillion copies despite coming out on a 6 month basis, and Monster Hunter and Pokemon are doing quite well to boot, so consumers don't seem to be upset with fast software release cycles on notable franchises.
4.) Given all the PSP/Vita, Vita/PS3, PS3/PS4, Vita/PS4, and Vita/PS3/PS4 software being announced, it seems that Japanese developers are perfectly fine making cross-generation software, or software that spans systems with notable power differences, so they would quite likely be willing to ship games that were on both 3DS and 4DS if Nintendo asked them to and assisted with making that easy to do.
5.) The cross-generation software mentioned above often did very well on the newer platform. Now, near the very beginning of the generation, it sometimes sold more on the earlier platforms, but the transition was pretty quick.
6.) Nintendo is working on N3DS exclusive software, so from a lost revenue perspective, they have to deal with selling to a lower install base whether that be N3DS owners or 4DS owners anyway. There's also nothing stopping them from making their own software cross-gen.
7.) If their hope is to find mobile hardware that can absorb Wii U technology, it's already here. The Tegra K1 can run Trine 2 at basically the same settings, resolution, and performance as the 360 and PS3 versions (and they're not even using a low level API to do it), and its hardware feature set is based off of Kepler, which until a month ago was NVIDIA's newest line of GPUs. This means that it has the full feature set of the PS4/XB1 even, and is beyond both the Wii U and 3DS in this respect, so it would be able to accept basically all modern game engines and middleware. The devices it's in (like the Shield Tablet) are only $300 too with a healthy profit margin, so it can presumably come down quite a bit in a smaller handheld with mass production.
8.) As per the technology note above, the system would be able to accept all the Japanese Vita, PS3, and smartphone games in development, and given what they look like (and are often cross-gen with), the notable majority of PS4 titles to boot.
9.) Internally, Nintendo's Wii U technology would largely be compatible with this system. They could also scale down their art assets a bit (3D modeling programs even have functionalities to help you strip down polygon counts efficiently) and use them as a basis for 4DS games that had higher end graphics. EA recently ran Plants vs. Zombies: Garden Warfare with a 1.3 million polygon scene on a notably less capable Apple tablet using Metal as an example of what it could do, so I can't imagine it would be a herculean task for Nintendo to get their stuff working on a better system. Being able to take Mario Kart 8 and Super Mario 3D Land's technology and art as a base would help them be able to quickly launch new iterations to support their newest system.
10.) Given how cross-gen is going in the West for the PS4/XB1, I don't think they need to be worried consumers wouldn't accept cross-gen titles abroad either if they felt it was quality content.
11.) Speaking of the West, this has the benefit of getting a new system out in a market where the 3DS is having notably more troubles and also making it compatible with the technology Western developers use so they can get more support from mobile titles and indie devs, even if they still don't capture big publishers.
12.) For 3DS owners, given how many Japanese developers are making cross-gen games on PlayStation systems, I suspect they would still support the 3DS for a notable time after launch (even if they launch it quite a bit after 2015), so it's unlikely customers who bought the 3DS will have a lack of content. Given what's been happening, I don't think it's crazy to think that there would still be lots of 3DS games for 1-2 years after the 4DS's release. From that perspective, if someone was able to buy new games in Fall 2017 for a system that launched in 2011, I don't think they'd be very upset.
13.) We've seen hardware continue to sell after a new system releases, sometimes with the old system even overtaking the new one. As mentioned earlier, we do see people buying older models even when newer ones are out for the 3DS itself, so I'm not sure how many overall 3DS sales would even get cut out in this equation given how it's been doing earlier in the year. Beyond that, is there actually a notable benefit to selling the N3DS over the 4DS from Nintendo's perspective? If they lose money on the 4DS, perhaps, but otherwise it seems like they're still capturing the same audience whether they buy an N3DS or 4DS.
So even if we ignore any issues the 3DS is facing and look overwhelmingly at their successes and opportunities, as an honest question, what would have been the pitfalls of launching the 4DS in Fall 2015? Am I missing anything that would have notably outweighed the potential benefits?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Japan loves COD and GTAV but how many of them will be wanting to move onto PS4 from it? Like you said though, COD and GTAV are PS4's biggest holiday releases.
thisisvlad
Member
The sentiment to release new hardware sooner rather than later is thanks to the underlying narrative of Nintendo rebranding themselves. In short, most discussions regarding Nintendo's future hardware/software output revolves around this idea of starting from scratch due to their significant market share loss. As future looking gamers, we are much more impatient than the average-joe, and thus the outcries for FY15 launches are heard loud and far.
Edit: to better answer the question, I think that as 'lean' of an organization as Nintendo is, the real downside is their lack of resources to simultaneously mobilize the Amiibos, QoL, current Wii U & 3DS pipeline and revisions, revamping their entire development methodology and organization (which, in my professional experience, can take a few years by itself) as well as schedule releases, negotiate contracts and develop software for new hardware. So the downside is stretching your SG&A budget to such a degree that your actual output can't sustain it.
Actually, since Gunman Clive is outside Overall top 20, everything in that list is over 100,000 units sold. Including Kirby Fighters Z.
Also, download cards should be included, given this is how Western eShop charts work.