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[test_account]

You responded to a fact-oriented argument with "nothing is impossible!!! man went to the moon!!! you gotta believe!!! UNICORN POWAH!!!" There's a reason that this is a time-worn cliche for the type of thing brainless hippies and irritatingly dense guidance counselors say. "Anything is possible" is a completely empty, meaningless argument.

You missunderstood me if you think i ment it like that. I didnt mean it like that at all. There are a lot of things that i concider as impossible or that are very unlikely to happen, so i'm not saying "everything is possible!!!", far from it.

All i was trying to say is that you cant forseen every outcome by making a hypothesis, and that everything else is wrong outside of this hypothesis, especially when something havnt been tried out before. I could have used a less "dramatic" example instead than something as huge as going to the moon.

But they won't. That's the entire point. Some people will wind up with different versions of the game within each social group, and the networks of acquaintances that people tap into to play (like "other kids at school") won't exist because the game will be split across platforms.

This argument is a bit like suggesting that we can't prove that Mario Kart would be equally successful if it only had online multiplayer. Yes, we can't prove it, and you can make up all kinds of justifications -- "people only play Uncharted online! when you get down to it, people will want to play with friends who have their own consoles, I don't think not having local play will really make an impact " -- but ultimately, it's bone-dead obvious that taking away or restricting the core selling points of a franchise will hurt that franchise's performance.

Well, in some situations you can kinda "prove" things like this as you say, i agree to that. I mean, we can say with pretty good accuracy that Mario Kart's appeal is local multiplayer and that the game might have sold less it it only had online multiplayer, i agree with situations like this =) It is not like i'm saying "Uncharted 4 will sell 10 million copies in one day!", then people argue against it and i say "we'll have to wait until the game comes out to see!" (technically we would have to wait for the game to know the true answer 100% for sure, but yeah, 10 million in one day is very unlikely).

But regarding the bolded part, this is where we see things differently. You think that it will damage the franchise and take something away from it (i see your point on this), while i think that it can rather expand the serie to more people and that the compability issue isnt going to be that big of a problem. That is why i would like to see true evidence of this before i completely dismiss this idea.

I don't know what you mean.

The question about releasing two different MH games on two different platforms instead of making the same MH game multiplatform. I wonder what your view on this is.

The arguement between charlequin and test_account is going on, and going on, and going on...

...And I'm with charlequin on this.

Yes, i'm glad that it is possible discuss on a good level even if it is a longer discussion.

 

[Rhod]

His prediction was 800k lifetime after an enormous demand collapse. There's lots of room to debate whether MH3G will be "successful" relative to various different standards, it's just that 800k is ultra low by even the most conservative reasonable estimate.

OK. I can see that many share your view. It doesn't really explain to me why retail buyers, capcom and nintendo all decided that the touted 450k was a good number for day one, but it appears obvious that the majority here expect that 800k would be very low lifetime and I can certainly understand that perception.

People have been citing platform fanboyism as an explanation for incipient bombas for years and years and it's never been as relevant as the people citing it think it is. It's basically the "I'm an expert" argument gussied up.

Hah. I am decidedly not an expert and I believe I acknowledged that my view was purely 'anecdotal' as I believe we say around these parts.

It is in fact implausible to think that there's a statistically significant portion of gamers who love Monster Hunter and yet would refuse to buy an otherwise-desirable game solely because of the brand printed on the outside of the box.

I don't think this is implausible. Purchasing decisions are affected by a system's entire gaming 'eco-system', rather than just one stand-out title.

(And, I mean, it's already been made pretty clear that it is in fact exclusive, so I also find it implausible that Japanese gamers are hoping against hope that it'll move to Vita and avoiding a purchase solely on that tiny ray of hope.)

I have no interest in MonHan on any platform, personally, despite being somewhat wowed on a technical level by the 3DS version. However, I find it far more implausible to think that the Monster Hunter Portable series has left the Sony platforms than to imagine that the main-numbered versions Tri and 4 are developed exclusively for Nintendo systems.

 

[DCharlie]

People have been citing platform fanboyism as an explanation for incipient bombas for years and years and it's never been as relevant as the people citing it think it is.

who is making the platform fanboyism argument?

It is in fact implausible to think that there's a statistically significant portion of gamers who love Monster Hunter and yet would refuse to buy an otherwise-desirable game solely because of the brand printed on the outside of the box.

what i see as the barrier to MH3G is what the game is content wise. MH4 is -not- going to have this problem at all.

so I also find it implausible that Japanese gamers are hoping against hope that it'll move to Vita

I still expect the next Sony MH game to be announced in the sony stream would be for PSP. With possible HD support (likely not) and patches controls for Vita. A Vita only MH game right now makes little to no sense without strong incentives (i.e. oodles of cash) from Sony.

 

[randomkid]

People have been citing platform fanboyism as an explanation for incipient bombas for years and years and it's never been as relevant as the people citing it think it is.

Then again, we DO have Tales fans (in Japan at least). But as someone who loathes Tales games I think the franchise and the fanbase deserve each other, heh.

 

[electroplankton]

I forgot this with all MH talking but apparently the new Magician's Quest had a good opening.

Yay! The brand is well established now and it was one of the best new IP this generation in terms of Japanese sales.

 

[charlequin]

The arguement between charlequin and test_account is going on, and going on, and going on...

I am stubborn as fuck.

 

[charlequin]

who is making the platform fanboyism argument?

Rhod was? He was saying people won't buy MH3G on a Sony platform. I don't think that's plausible. (That's separate from arguments about what the content of the game is, which I can't speak to.)

Then again, we DO have Tales fans (in Japan at least).

Tales is far and away the most seemingly-biased franchise in Japan, but even that's easier to explain in other ways. Tales put out games on all five platforms. In four cases, Tales performed proportionately to other RPGs on the platform (i.e. very well on PS3 and PSP, pretty poorly on Wii and 360); the fifth was DS where Namco salted the earth so nothing could ever grow again.

 

[Datschge]

Purchasing decisions are affected by a system's entire gaming 'eco-system', rather than just one stand-out title.

Not sure why you would want to bring that up in this context. The 3DS has that eco-system already as we speak while Vita doesn't (as it's not out yet with few obvious system seller announced). And the success of MHP on PSP was rather under the opposite circumstances. At the time it arrived DS had the dominating eco-system while PSP was seeing little software sale and few new titles being announced, MH single handedly revived the platform.

 

[charlequin]

while i think that it can rather expand the serie to more people

Who? Nobody owns a Vita yet. Every single person who already plays MH has had time to see that the series' future is on 3DS and knows which platform to buy if they want to get the next two MH games to be released. There isn't really anuntapped market waiting to be reached here.

The question about releasing two different MH games on two different platforms instead of making the same MH game multiplatform. I wonder what your view on this is.

Assuming we mean two handheld platforms, it's plausible but also kind of pointless. One platform or the other will be more successful for the franchise; they should pick that platform and stick to it. If a year and a half from now Vita is running away with the market, I think it'd be perfectly sensible for Capcom to switch and release all future MH titles as Vita exclusives (or cross-compatible Vita/PS3 titles, or whatevs), but the best approach would be to make a clean break if they did that, IMO.

OK. I can see that many share your view. It doesn't really explain to me why retail buyers, capcom and nintendo all decided that the touted 450k was a good number for day one

Well, one possible explanation is that it's a cart manufacturing issue. That was a huge issue throughout the DS' life.

Regardless, I think the day-one performance does indeed suggest that 450k was an underestimate.

I don't think this is implausible. Purchasing decisions are affected by a system's entire gaming 'eco-system', rather than just one stand-out title.

Sure, but the earlier on you are, the less ecosystem there is. And Monster Hunter is as close as you get to a "system-seller" game, so it's not implausible for people to buy a given system just to play Monhan.

Anyway, I think one could construct an ecosystem-based argument for why MH might underperform on 3DS, and DCharlie's tried to do so, I just don't think "isn't on Sony hardware" is a good proxy for that argument.

However, I find it far more implausible to think that the Monster Hunter Portable series has left the Sony platforms than to imagine that the main-numbered versions Tri and 4 are developed exclusively for Nintendo systems.

Why? People have this reaction all the time, but only really on franchises that succeeded on PlayStation. Sony themselves aren't responsible for MH's success in any meaningful way and Capcom have already demonstrated that they don't see Sony as a partner on this franchise that they need to keep happy. I don't know why leaving their platforms out of the mix for MH would seem particularly implausible except from a sort of emotional linkage between the two that isn't underlaid by business logic.

 

[Rhod]

Rhod was? He was saying people won't buy MH3G on a Sony platform. I don't think that's plausible. (That's separate from arguments about what the content of the game is, which I can't speak to.)

No, I don't mean to say it's through any notion of 'fanboyism', I believe you are reading that into my words. The branding of fanboy on any party, I feel, is thoroughly unhelpful in gaming discussions. I have observed how certain demographics are less inclined towards Nintendo platforms in Japan than others, and was speculating on how those demographic intersect well with the main swell of the Monster Hunter PSP crowd. I have observed Nintendo attempting on numerous occasions to 'woo' the high-school/young adult male market [edit: many of whom] are very keen on Monster Hunter, to limited success. I feel they are still climbing up that hill.

In fact, I feel the whole reason for their ill-fated 3rd-party-led approach on 3DS was to try and create an environment which counters this stigma. It's not fanboyism to want to buy into a platform which will support your tastes beyond the one game being pitched to you (edit: as was the case with Tri on Wii, which stood alone on the system and had TV adverts making a central point of how the players were unhealthily eating potato chips whilst playing because This Is Not Your Healthy Grandma's Nintendo). But I'm just being silly now.

 

[Rhod]

I don't know why leaving their platforms out of the mix for MH would seem particularly implausible except from a sort of emotional linkage between the two that isn't underlaid by business logic.

The business logic is that you have spent three years fostering this community of PSP owners who are still PSP owners, and selling 4 million units of software is good for business, whilst not precluding the continued efforts you are making to build an audience for 'your type' of software on Nintendo platforms.

 

[test_account]

Who? Nobody owns a Vita yet. Every single person who already plays MH has had time to see that the series' future is on 3DS and knows which platform to buy if they want to get the next two MH games to be released. There isn't really anuntapped market waiting to be reached here.

I'm thinking more about in the upcoming future, not that a Vita MH game should be released right now. I'm pretty sure that Vita will sell millions of units in Japan alone. And i think that several will only buy a Vita, or prefer it as their main system.

But we will see how MHTriG sells in the long run. It might be an indication on how many MH fans that have gotten a 3DS.

Assuming we mean two handheld platforms, it's plausible but also kind of pointless. One platform or the other will be more successful for the franchise; they should pick that platform and stick to it. If a year and a half from now Vita is running away with the market, I think it'd be perfectly sensible for Capcom to switch and release all future MH titles as Vita exclusives (or cross-compatible Vita/PS3 titles, or whatevs), but the best approach would be to make a clean break if they did that, IMO.

Yeah, i'm thinking of two handheld platforms. Ok, thanks for the answer to this question =)

 

[extralite]

the fifth was DS where Namco salted the earth so nothing could ever grow again.

I'm not buying into this explanation at all. Sure it is possible and it would explain it but there's as much proof for this explanation as for the one citing preference of system. The middle ground would probably be saying that the DS can't deliver the necessary anime aesthetics for a successful Tales of game (which you have done already).

But the fact remains that Tales of also didn't do well on either SNES nor GC. The first it has in common with many other new SNES RPG IPs which only exploded after being continued on PS. But all attempts to recreate the success it found on Playstation on other consoles has failed pretty badly. And as has been pointed out numerous times minor spin offs on PSP did a lot better than the main games on DS.

Tales of represents a certain type of JRPG that only really strived on Playstation hardware. FFXIII may have created an umbrella for games like Tales of but that umbrella didn't work back on SNES although DQ and FF were both already almost at their peaks then. That didn't do shit for other RPGs (not by Square). The cheap CD medium on PS on the other hand did. Arc the Lad did close to a million from out of nowhere. Star Ocean and Tales took off, other new IPs like Suikoden succeeded. It's funny that Atlus gained only little numbers with Persona.

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions

[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 432.109
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 210.987
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 123.456
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 765.432
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 345.678
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 98.765
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 56.789
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 45.678

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Predictions

[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 380,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 245,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 99,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 710,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 360,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 125,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 38,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 57,000

I'm quite drunk, so I will probably edit these in the morning.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I'm not buying into this explanation at all. Sure it is possible and it would explain it but there's as much proof for this explanation as for the one citing preference of system. The middle ground would probably be saying that the DS can't deliver the necessary anime aesthetics for a successful Tales of game (which you have done already).

But the fact remains that Tales of also didn't do well on either SNES nor GC. The first it has in common with many other new SNES RPG IPs which only exploded after being continued on PS. But all attempts to recreate the success it found on Playstation on other consoles has failed pretty badly. And as has been pointed out numerous times minor spin offs on PSP did a lot better than the main games on DS.

Tales of represents a certain type of JRPG that only really strived on Playstation hardware. FFXIII may have created an umbrella for games like Tales of but that umbrella didn't work back on SNES although DQ and FF were both already almost at their peaks then. That didn't do shit for other RPGs (not by Square). The cheap CD medium on PS on the other hand did. Arc the Lad did close to a million from out of nowhere. Star Ocean and Tales took off, other new IPs like Suikoden succeeded. It's funny that Atlus gained only little numbers with Persona.

The industry as a whole grew substantially between SNES and PS1. The case for Tales failing on DS and Wii is definitely a stronger one then trying to read anything into SNES numbers.

 

[Truth101]

Predictions

[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 415,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 225,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 50,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 650,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 320,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 130,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 45,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 50,000

 

[DCharlie]

Who? Nobody owns a Vita yet. Every single person who already plays MH has had time to see that the series' future is on 3DS and knows which platform to buy if they want to get the next two MH games to be released. There isn't really anuntapped market waiting to be reached here.

I'm starting to come to the realisation that Capcom are doing this because they don't see the Vita audience being there within the next 12-18 months and the cost of the Vita is likely the probitive factor. I don't see the Vita doing massive numbers any time soon and i don't see the games on the horizon that are going to push the Japanese to the machine.

The 15,000 yen 3DS is much more in the reach of players than the Vita - and over the next year that's almost certainly going to make a difference. As others pointed out, whilst the PSP would definitely have supported another multimillion seller at xmas, where next? The Sony upgrade path has that price tag and i don't think they have the wiggle room on the Vita to cut costs - Nintendo did (let's face it, the 3DS -was- over priced for what it offered). Given the target demographic is also not one flush with cash (school kids etc) then Vita is an even harder sell: as i total up my spend for this weekend i'm starting to realise it's going to be a sizeable chunk of cash going out the wallet.

End result is the projected market no matter which way i slice it is going to see the 3DS out in front by a considerable distance - then throw in that a Vita version would likely be costly as you'd have to raise the standard somewhat then financially the Vita isn't a sure thing. Neither of course is the 3DS.

The other telling sign is a couple of places (yodo especially) have started moving the Monster Hunter merch out from their usual Playstation location to the Nintendo sections. Wholesale. Including items that are related to Portable. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next - i'm basically at the point where i can't even see the game doing "okay", it's either going to fail miserably as i predicted - or it's going to go supernova and sell stupid numbers of games+hardware.

Still - fun to watch ! ... and it's still topping out at 800k

 

[extralite]

The industry as a whole grew substantially between SNES and PS1. The case for Tales failing on DS and Wii is definitely a stronger one then trying to read anything into SNES numbers.

I'm not only talking about those and I also give a reason for that growth you're talking about. My point is the rise of the mid-level, close to a million selling RPGs and the Playstation are connected and many fans are still making that connection. As long as they know Tales will also be released for PS they really don't have any reason to switch over to another system, unless they have the money to buy multiple systems (most will buy used and sell again for that). Hence the difficulty of the franchise moving towards Nintendo platforms. It might work if the whole genre could move towards a certain platform but there's really no reason why this should be happening. It certainly didn't work on DS, since as I have pointed out, JRPGs on DS performed more closely to SNES than to PS1/2 (increasingly worse actually), DQ9 being the sole exception.

 

[charlequin]

The business logic is that you have spent three years fostering this community of PSP owners who are still PSP owners, and selling 4 million units of software is good for business, whilst not precluding the continued efforts you are making to build an audience for 'your type' of software on Nintendo platforms.

Well, you have to weigh that old market against the future value of fully establishing the new one. The sooner you can migrate people to a new platform, the sooner you can go back to releasing 4m sellers on a regular basis. There's a lot of wiggle room in terms of when the right time to switch horses is, but I think we've historically seen a lot of evidence that sooner is better than later.

I'm not buying into this explanation at all.

Why not? The principle that a title's performance is heavily affected by people's response to its predecessor is one of the foundational elements of sales analysis. When people buy something and feel burned, they stay away from its followups, even if the evidence suggests that there's a big improvement. On the DS, Namco released one insultingly awful title and one extremely mediocre one before putting a serious effort on the platform -- to suggest that this had no effect on Tales of Hearts is ludicrous.

But the fact remains that Tales of also didn't do well on either SNES nor GC.

This is way more of a stretch than anything I said. Phantasia didn't do well on SNES because it was a brand-new IP released on an expensive cart at the very tail end of a generation. It also had almost nothing to do with the values of the Tales brand as we think of them now: it had no skits, no anime sequences, it was balls-hard, etc. This is basically like bringing up the way FF1 sold in the US to make an argument about modern sales.

The case on the GameCube is the same as the case on the Wii, only moreso: the GCN was a failure of a system which nothing performed well on in Japan.

These arguments are always built on fallacious correlation-equals-causation logic. Tales has performed well on specific platforms not because they're made by Sony, but because there are some features that Sony consoles have all shared (lots of storage space and ability to handle anime cutscenes), some situations that helped Sony historically (i.e. being the twice-running market leader during Tales' growth as a franchise), and some factors that have been coincidental recently (i.e. 360's DOA status in Japan leaving PS3 as the go-to system for Japanese console games.) Those don't correspond to any innate predictive power, where you can guarantee some future platform will be the only place for Tales simply because it's made by Sony, unless you actually dig down and consider the real causal factors underneath.

It certainly didn't work on DS, since as I have pointed out, JRPGs on DS performed more closely to SNES than to PS1/2 (increasingly worse actually), DQ9 being the sole exception.

Yeah that's just not accurate at all.

 

[guek]

I'm starting to come to the realisation that Capcom are doing this because they don't see the Vita audience being there within the next 12-18 months and the cost of the Vita is likely the probitive factor. I don't see the Vita doing massive numbers any time soon and i don't see the games on the horizon that are going to push the Japanese to the machine.

Capcom probably just wants to bet on the winning horse this time around. As well as MH did on PSP, the DS would have been the preferable platform had it been able to run it.

 

[LayLa]

Another factor in platform choice could be Capcom wanting to push the game abroad. Sony didn't put much effort into promoting MH in the west, Nintendo published Tri (in EU) & did spend quite a bit marketing it - they even did that old FF1 tactic of giving away a copy of the game to subscribers of Official Nintendo Magazine in the UK. If Nintendo said they were willing to do the same for the 3DS games i imagine that could be quite an incentive for Capcom.

 

[rosjos44]

I'm starting to come to the realisation that Capcom are doing this because they don't see the Vita audience being there within the next 12-18 months and the cost of the Vita is likely the probitive factor. I don't see the Vita doing massive numbers any time soon and i don't see the games on the horizon that are going to push the Japanese to the machine.

The 15,000 yen 3DS is much more in the reach of players than the Vita - and over the next year that's almost certainly going to make a difference. As others pointed out, whilst the PSP would definitely have supported another multimillion seller at xmas, where next? The Sony upgrade path has that price tag and i don't think they have the wiggle room on the Vita to cut costs - Nintendo did (let's face it, the 3DS -was- over priced for what it offered). Given the target demographic is also not one flush with cash (school kids etc) then Vita is an even harder sell: as i total up my spend for this weekend i'm starting to realise it's going to be a sizeable chunk of cash going out the wallet.

End result is the projected market no matter which way i slice it is going to see the 3DS out in front by a considerable distance - then throw in that a Vita version would likely be costly as you'd have to raise the standard somewhat then financially the Vita isn't a sure thing. Neither of course is the 3DS.

The other telling sign is a couple of places (yodo especially) have started moving the Monster Hunter merch out from their usual Playstation location to the Nintendo sections. Wholesale. Including items that are related to Portable. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next - i'm basically at the point where i can't even see the game doing "okay", it's either going to fail miserably as i predicted - or it's going to go supernova and sell stupid numbers of games+hardware.

Still - fun to watch ! ... and it's still topping out at 800k

Will pokemon top out at 800k if it went to vita and vita only had 3 million systems out?

 

[duckroll]

Why not? The principle that a title's performance is heavily affected by people's response to its predecessor is one of the foundational elements of sales analysis. When people buy something and feel burned, they stay away from its followups, even if the evidence suggests that there's a big improvement. On the DS, Namco released one insultingly awful title and one extremely mediocre one before putting a serious effort on the platform -- to suggest that this had no effect on Tales of Hearts is ludicrous.

I think that poisoning the well certainly has an effect, but I also don't think that consumers are really completely stupid, especially when we're talking about a mid-size core gamer fanbase. If you see a game which looks like a piece of turd, and all your friends tell you its a piece of turd, there's a good chance you won't buy that game. But if you see that the next game in the series is not a piece of turd, even though you might be hesitant at first, when you have confirmed that it in fact does not look like a piece of turd and is something you are interested in, there is no reason why you would decide not to buy it anyway.

Let's take for example Tales of Rebirth. It was released on the PS2 in Dec 2004. It ended up selling 600k. Tales of Legendia (a total piece of shit!) was released in Aug 2005. It ended up selling 340k. Tales of the Abyss was then released in Dec 2005. It ended up selling 560k. So clearly the people buying Tales from 2004 to 2006 were not blind and stupid. They bought one which looked good, they avoided the shitty one, and then they came back and bought the next good one.

Tales of Hearts is a Tales game of exceptional quality, and one of the stand out full featured RPGs on the DS. I really don't think that the single factor that people were turned off by two shitty Tales games before that is enough to explain why it ended up selling about the same amount as the two shitty Tales games before it. There's definitely more to the equation.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I think that poisoning the well certainly has an effect, but I also don't think that consumers are really completely stupid, especially when we're talking about a mid-size core gamer fanbase. If you see a game which looks like a piece of turd, and all your friends tell you its a piece of turd, there's a good chance you won't buy that game. But if you see that the next game in the series is not a piece of turd, even though you might be hesitant at first, when you have confirmed that it in fact does not look like a piece of turd and is something you are interested in, there is no reason why you would decide not to buy it anyway.

Let's take for example Tales of Rebirth. It was released on the PS2 in Dec 2004. It ended up selling 600k. Tales of Legendia (a total piece of shit!) was released in Aug 2005. It ended up selling 340k. Tales of the Abyss was then released in Dec 2005. It ended up selling 560k. So clearly the people buying Tales from 2004 to 2006 were not blind and stupid. They bought one which looked good, they avoided the shitty one, and then they came back and bought the next good one.

Tales of Hearts is a Tales game of exceptional quality, and one of the stand out full featured RPGs on the DS. I really don't think that the single factor that people were turned off by two shitty Tales games before that is enough to explain why it ended up selling about the same amount as the two shitty Tales games before it. There's definitely more to the equation.

There's a big difference between your PS2 and DS examples though. TOH was preceded by 2 Tales games. The first was absolute dog shite and the 2nd was mediocre.

Tales of Legendia on the other hand was preceded by Tales of Rebirth, Destiny 2 and TOS PS2, all of which were quality games. One bad game doesn't negate all the goodwill that Namco built up on the PS2 (unlike the DS, where there was no goodwill to begin with!) A clear message was sent that told consumers that Namco did not consider the DS to be a serious platform for Tales games (the CG TOH version experiment probably didn't help that perception either)

 

[duckroll]

There's a big difference between your PS2 and DS examples though. TOH was preceded by 2 Tales games. The first was absolute dog shite and the 2nd was mediocre.

Tales of Legendia on the other hand was preceded by Tales of Rebirth, Destiny 2 and TOS PS2, all of which were quality games. One bad game doesn't negate all the goodwill that Namco built up on the PS2 (unlike the DS, where there was no goodwill to begin with!) A clear message was sent that told consumers that Namco did not consider the DS to be a serious platform for Tales games (the CG TOH version experiment probably didn't help that perception either)

Thaty makes no sense. For there to be no goodwill for the Tales series on the DS at all, would mean that the people who own the DS in Japan are insulated completely from being the userbase of any other system, and somehow they have never experienced a Tales game before. That's hardly the case.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Thaty makes no sense. For there to be no goodwill for the Tales series on the DS at all, would mean that the people who own the DS in Japan are insulated completely from being the userbase of any other system, and somehow they have never experienced a Tales game before. That's hardly the case.

It's all about showing the consumers that they were looking to deliver a "real" Tales experience. Don't forget that Tempest was the first ever original "Mothership" title on a handheld. Before that game handhelds were exclusively the realm of cheap spinoffs and ports when it comes to the Tales series. It wasn't just a matter of it reaching consumers that were new to the series, it was set out to change the perceptions of those who were familiar with the series as well.

With the first game being released (Tempest) it was a clear sign that Namco were not interested in delivering proper Tales experiences on the DS, killing off future interest in other handheld "mothership" titles on the DS. They promised something that they didn't really deliver on with Tempest (and to a lesser extent, Innocence). How on earth could that NOT have affected Heart's reception massively? The fanbase had come to expect low quality garbage when it came to DS Tales games.

 

[Mpl90]

It's time

Comgnet Daily Preorders Ranking

Updated: 12 December 2011 (Mon) 08:00
Ranking is closed at December 11, 2011

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 655pt
[PS3] Armored Core 5 - 143Pt
[PS3] OROCHI 2 Warriors (Limited Edition) - 131pt
[PSP] Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha A's PORTABLE-THE GEARS OF DESTINY-GOD BOX Limited Edition - 110pt
[PS3] OG Super Robot Taisen 2 - 105pt
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIIIヴェルサス - 98Pt
[PS3] BLAZBLUE CONTINUUM SHIFT EXTEND - 93pt
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven GO Shine - 76pt
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven GO Dark - 59pt
[PSV] GOLF6 everyone - 56pt
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (dub version) - 48pt
[PSP] I & II Machine God tier Super Robot Taisen OG Saga - 45pt
[PSV] Uncharted beginning of an adventure without a map - 41pt
[PSP] BOX ☆ limitation agreement portable Madoka Magika Maho Shojo (Full, Limited Edition) - 39pt
[3DS] SD Gundam GGENERATION 3D - 36pt
[3DS] NEW Love Plus - 34pt
[Wii] Inazuma Eleven Strikers Xtreme 2012 - 32pt
[PSV] NEXT Dynasty Warriors - 31pt
[PSV] Disgaea Disgaea 3 Return - 31pt
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid Rising - 30pt

Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 655pt
Final Fantasy XIII - 2017pt

Inazuma Eleven Go [Shine/Dark] - 135pt
Inazuma Eleven 3 [Bomber/Sparks] - 346pt
Inazuma Eleven 2 [Fire/Blizzard] - 170pt

FF XIII-2 could be...one of the biggest epic fails of the recent history?

And now, the REAL fun

Comgnet Weekly Sales Ranking

Updated: 12 December 2011 (Mon) 08:00
Index aggregation period: 11 December 2011 ~ December 05, 2011

[3DS] Monster 3G (Limited Edition) - 880pt
[3DS] Monster 3G (slide pad Bundle) - 316pt
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 223pt
[PS3] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 217pt
[PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam VS Extreme - 178pt
[NDS] peaked witch hat and stylish - 121pt
[3DS] 3D Super Mario Land - 115pt
[PS3] Ultimate Blast Dragon Ball - 113pt
[Wii] Mario & Sonic Olympics in London AT - 59pt
[PSP] To Aru Kagaku no Railgun (Limited Edition) - 55pt
[Wii] Kirby of the Stars Wii - 53pt
[PSP] To Aru Kagaku no Railgun (Limited Edition) - 51pt
[Xbox360] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 45pt
[Wii] JUST DANCE Wii (Just Dance Wii) - 43pt
[PSP] Kamen Rider Climax Heroes for zero - 43pt
[NDS] One Piece Gigant Battle the New World 2 (Limited Edition) - 41pt
[Wii] The World Beyond PokePark 2 - 37pt
[Wii] Wii Bundle Tatakon definitive Taiko no Tatsujin - 31pt
[Wii] Kamen Rider Climax Heroes for zero - 31pt
[NDS] Metal Max 2: Reloaded - 31pt

MH3G - 1196pt

If Mario Kart 7 follows the Comgnet pt / actual thousands sold of the first week, it should have a 150k second week. But since this week 3DS should have seen an ulterior rise in hardware sales, 200k would not be impossible.
And the evidence of the rise is 3D Land: last week it did 63pt. It almost doubled. And last week it did 72k.
Mario Kart at 200k and Mario 3D Land at almost 150k?

Skyrim at 100k could be real O_O

 

[GDGF]

I am champing at the bit over here.

 

[DCharlie]

Will pokemon top out at 800k if it went to vita and vita only had 3 million systems out?

yes - because if we complete the similarities it would be a step release of a game that people would still be playing on a platform they already own (and assumedly in the 5-6million unit sales range)

And of course people who'd be interested in playing pokemon would already have the Nintendo machine and will already be balls deep into the game. The hard ask would be to get these people to start AGAIN from scratch , collect 97% the same pokemon, do the same missions etc

So you'd be down to picking up balls out crazy fans and people who haven't played the latest pokemon but were itching to the second it wasn't on Nintendo hardware.

 

[Michan]

If Mario Kart 7 follows the Comgnet pt / actual thousands sold of the first week, it should have a 150k second week. But since this week 3DS should have seen an ulterior rise in hardware sales, 200k would not be impossible.

Not sure if Comgnet is the best resource to use when gauging a game like Mario Kart's sales.

 

[Fularu]

I think that poisoning the well certainly has an effect, but I also don't think that consumers are really completely stupid, especially when we're talking about a mid-size core gamer fanbase. If you see a game which looks like a piece of turd, and all your friends tell you its a piece of turd, there's a good chance you won't buy that game. But if you see that the next game in the series is not a piece of turd, even though you might be hesitant at first, when you have confirmed that it in fact does not look like a piece of turd and is something you are interested in, there is no reason why you would decide not to buy it anyway.

Wouldn't burned people's "wait and see" attitude mean that, by the time they know the game doesn't suck, the market is already flooded with second hand copies?

 

[wrowa]

Taking aside that the fanbase of the Tales series obviously appreciates good production values, which neither the DS nor Wii games offered, I think that during the last several years Namco sent out the picture that they don't put much effort into Tales games on Nintendo plattforms.

Tales of Symphonia was a great game on a failed plattform, people who might have even bought the console to play that game got burned later on when Namco decided to release a superior port on the PS2.

After that Namco put out a whole lot of bad to mediocre games. Tales of the Tempest has been marketed as a mainline game and was easily the worst game of the franchise so far. When announcing Tales of Innocence Namco made a big deal of how the DS will be the mothership plattform for Tales games from now on -- at the same time Innocence was being outsourced to a 2nd hand studio and the outcome was mediocre at best.

And then there is Knight of Ratatosk. For the Wii Namco promised a sequel to one of the more popular Tales games, and what happened? They burned fans of the original with a game that was yet again mediocre at best.

There is just so much the reputation of a series on a particular set of plattforms can handle until most of the fans stop paying attention alltogether. When Namco decided that putting actual effort into their Wii and DS games might be working out to the series favor, many fans already moved on without looking back .

 

[allan-bh]

FF FAIL XIII-2.

Square-Enix deserves.

 

[schuelma]

It's time

Comgnet Daily Preorders Ranking

Interesting to note- the MH3G sales numbers were actually lower than the final pre-order number.

 

[Mpl90]

Interesting to note- the MH3G sales numbers were actually lower than the final pre-order number.

Eeeeeh, here you have the reflection of the "low" first shipment.

 

[Alrus]

Predictions

[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 439,859
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 250,333
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 95,452
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 775,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 315,564
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 120,238
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 46,069
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 55,005

Vita is a bit hard to predict since we don't have any info on shipment. I'm pretty sure the first one will sell out anyway.

 

[schuelma]

Eeeeeh, here you have the reflection of the "low" first shipment.

yup

 

[test_account]

FF FAIL XIII-2.

Square-Enix deserves.

Why? You think that XIII-2 is that bad?

 

[allan-bh]

Why? You think that XIII-2 is that bad?

S-E is suffering the consequences of FF XIII, a mediocre game. It is deserved.

 

[test_account]

S-E is suffering the consequences of FF XIII, a mediocre game. It is deserved.

But XIII-2 is a new game. What if this game is much better? Didnt they fix much of the complaints in XIII-2 that they got from XIII?

 

[Mpl90]

yup

I mean, considering that get6-2 talked about 500k for the first day, maybe we're looking at something better than the 420k estimated by Sinobi. But we're still talking about 550-600k, not more.
Really, this time they had to ship 800-900k.
Oh well, it'll have a great second week.

P.S. If MH3G has a second week better than the FF XIII-2 debut, ...50 pages for the MC Thread.

 

[Fularu]

P.S. If MH3G has a second week better than the FF XIII-2 debut, ...50 pages for the MC Thread.

This won't happen, I just can't see MH3G doing 750k+ in the second week. (At the same time it would be hilarious but DC would never hear the end of it at Chris'S hands).

 

[Mpl90]

This won't happen, I just can't see MH3G doing 750k+ in the second week. (At the same time it would be hilarious but DC would never hear the end of it at Chris'S hands).

... But in fact, I'm thinking about a 400k for MH3G's second week as a maximum.

Ehehehehehe.

 

[Alrus]

... But in fact, I'm thinking about a 400k for MH3G's second week as a maximum.

Ehehehehehe.

FF XIII-2 will never do that badly... It would be the biggest bomb in Square Enix history... (The Spirit Within doesn't count )

 

[Fularu]

... But in fact, I'm thinking about a 400k for MH3G's second week as a maximum.

Ehehehehehe.

This has even less chances of happening than MH3G doing 750k next week.

 

[frankie_baby]

FF XIII-2 will never do that badly... It would be the biggest bomb in Square Enix history... (The Spirit Within doesn't count )

Well its comgnet points do suggest it'll do exactly that badly, though even I think it'll do (a bit)better than that

 

[BurntPork]

Zelda's already out of Comgnet? *sigh* If it weren't for the US, I'd be sure that this would be the end of Zelda as we know it...

 

[Alrus]

You guys are reading way too much into the comgnet charts :/

 

[wrowa]

But XIII-2 is a new game. What if this game is much better? Didnt they fix much of the complaints in XIII-2 that they got from XIII?

We just had that discussion regarding the Tales series, and it's even more true in the case of a direct sequel: If people felt burned by the original game, they won't suddely rush out to buy the direct sequel that continues the first game's story.

It might be a way better game all around, but people would have to realize that first. That's hard to achieve when one part of the potential buyers didn't pay attention to the sequel to begin with because they quite simply aren't interested in a direct follow-up to that particular game of the series, and another part of the potential buyers remains skeptical towards everything the developers say and everything that's being shown due to being burned the first time around. A person who is in "wait and see"-mode won't buy the game at release, but after his friends tell him whether or not the game is good or bad.

Sure, there's also the part of the fanbase who either liked the original game or trust in the developers even though they weren't a fan of the original; but the other groups shouldn't be neglected either.