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Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2011 (Nov 28 - Dec 04)

Rhod

Member
Not sure why everyone is so sceptical of Charlie's views here. There is a demographic in Japan which is fairly non-plussed about Nintendo systems, and was non-plussed even through the boom of DS and Wii. These people went from PS2 -> PSP and are now going to PS3. You don't see them very obviously in sales because the volume of Nintendo sales were so huge it would appear that everyone was buying them. But they weren't. And you can see it 'on the ground' just by looking around you in game stores.

Whilst it is perfectly sensible to predict that MH3G is going to bring a fair percentage of the PSP MH fans over, it is not in any way foolish to believe that Nintendo will have a hard time moving 'playstation gamers' over to their system in the sort of numbers which would make a rolling sell-out of MH3G a likely scenario.

To my mind, getting a large MH community on Nintendo systems will take a very clear announcement that it is exclusive. Failing that there is nothing to say that Capcom aren't just playing one hardware manufacturer against the other, a practice which they are in fact World Class Masters of.
 
Anyways, nothing will hunt/hurt me - i'll simply regroup infront of your eyes for MH4 doom prediction. Sort of like an internet version of Terminator 2

Listen, and understand. DCharlie is out there. He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop posting, ever, until Monster Hunter 4 bombs...

Yeah, wrong movie! Just teasing - I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about Tri G's performance as well (though not as much as you) but the opportunity for a quote was irresistible ;-)
 
okay - so out of curiousity - so what percentage of the 3DS user base do you ultimately expect to purchase MH3G?

Wouldn't this give us total sales at end of year of over 2m ?

ACtually you're right I was thinking there were only 2 more weeks of the year when there's 3, having said that I'd expect (subject to stock) it'll be a lot closer to 2 million than it is to your prediction

As for percentages of the 3ds userbase that'll buy mh3g I really don't know, who knows how high either will sell ultimately
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Amazon watch:

Super Mario 3D Land has only 4% of discount; Mario kart 7 only 20 Yen.
They're basically almost out of stock
Kirby is fourth, great Holiday rise.
3DS Skus

White - 7th
Blue - 9th
Red - 13th
Pink - 14th
Black - 17th
Rhythm Tengoku is back in top 30
Wii Party back in top 40
The best Vita games are by far MNG5 (43rd) and Uncharted (44th)
One version of Nintendogs is around 70th, SPRumble is 75th.
 

jman2050

Member
Not sure why everyone is so sceptical of Charlie's views here. There is a demographic in Japan which is fairly non-plussed about Nintendo systems, and was non-plussed even through the boom of DS and Wii. These people went from PS2 -> PSP and are now going to PS3. You don't see them very obviously in sales because the volume of Nintendo sales were so huge it would appear that everyone was buying them. But they weren't. And you can see it 'on the ground' just by looking around you in game stores.

Whilst it is perfectly sensible to predict that MH3G is going to bring a fair percentage of the PSP MH fans over, it is not in any way foolish to believe that Nintendo will have a hard time moving 'playstation gamers' over to their system in the sort of numbers which would make a rolling sell-out of MH3G a likely scenario.

To my mind, getting a large MH community on Nintendo systems will take a very clear announcement that it is exclusive. Failing that there is nothing to say that Capcom aren't just playing one hardware manufacturer against the other, a practice which they are in fact World Class Masters of.

Why are you making the completely unfounded implication that the majority of the MH PSP fanbase overlaps with the "doesnt care about Nintendo" demographic?
 

Spiegel

Member
Amazon rankings, fuck yes

To my mind, getting a large MH community on Nintendo systems will take a very clear announcement that it is exclusive. Failing that there is nothing to say that Capcom aren't just playing one hardware manufacturer against the other, a practice which they are in fact World Class Masters of.

Announcing MH3G AND MH4 and saying that no MH game is in development for Vita is not clear enough?
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
This pretty much seals the deal for Vita in Japan. But atleast there still is a FFX PS3/Vita multiplatform PS2 port to save the day.

Vita has it's own problems without Monster Hunter on the 3DS - i'll go one further and say i think Mario Kart is a much bigger and much more important game for the 3DS.

I think that's going to be the 3DS juggernaut - i've seen grandmothers buying it and it seems wherever i go shopping people are standing in queues holding a copy. Plus - of course - that's aimed at the traditional nintendo fanbase.

FFX Vita... ugh - PSV needs a defining game/experience. So far, there isn't on. Gravity Daze looks good but i doubt that's it.

I'd mention that i expect Vita to limp in with 320k unit sales, but ... you know ;)

As for percentages of the 3ds userbase that'll buy mh3g I really don't know, who knows how high either will sell ultimately

indeed :) In the end, games like MH and similar break outs tend to have some unqualifiable X factor.
 

Oxx

Member
Any mention of a Western release?
:D

"There are no official plans to release Love Plus in English. But perhaps it's only a matter of time before cafes around the world are filled with lone men sitting with their consoles on a Saturday afternoon, waiting for their 'girlfriends' to arrive".
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Amazon rankings, fuck yes



Announcing MH3G AND MH4 and saying that no MH game is in development for Vita is not clear enough?

No, not enough.
They must say that the brand won't touch any Sony console from now until the END OF TIMES.
 
"There are no official plans to release Love Plus in English. But perhaps it's only a matter of time before cafes around the world are filled with lone men sitting with their consoles on a Saturday afternoon, waiting for their 'girlfriends' to arrive".

I'll take a Mocha Latte and my 3DS will have a Frappaccino (Low Fat).
 
Not sure why everyone is so sceptical of Charlie's views here. There is a demographic in Japan which is fairly non-plussed about Nintendo systems, and was non-plussed even through the boom of DS and Wii. These people went from PS2 -> PSP and are now going to PS3. You don't see them very obviously in sales because the volume of Nintendo sales were so huge it would appear that everyone was buying them. But they weren't. And you can see it 'on the ground' just by looking around you in game stores.

Whilst it is perfectly sensible to predict that MH3G is going to bring a fair percentage of the PSP MH fans over, it is not in any way foolish to believe that Nintendo will have a hard time moving 'playstation gamers' over to their system in the sort of numbers which would make a rolling sell-out of MH3G a likely scenario.

I don't think playstation exclusive gamers is a large enough portion of Monster Hunter's entire audience to thwart a shift to the 3DS. I think you'd have a point if it was a series with more niche appeal like one of Nippon Ichi's loli strategy games or Gust's loli alchemy games. As it stands, MH has too much broad appeal. I'm not sure if it's on the same level as Dragon Quest, which can be released on any platform and sell like crazy, but I think it's big enough that a sizable portion of the audience will buy new hardware to play the newest installment
 

Alrus

Member
No, not enough.
They must say that the brand won't touch any Sony console from now until the END OF TIMES.

That wouldn't be enough either. That kind of person will just bring up RE4 (and the Capcom 5) to prove that it'll come to a playstation console in the end.

Not that it matters much, as I don't believe the MH fanbase is that fanboyish. The only example we have of such massive loyalty to a platform is the Tales franchise.
 
indeed :) In the end, games like MH and similar break outs tend to have some unqualifiable X factor.

Interestingly, many also seem to have a "moment" after which the mass audience moves on never to return. Monster Hunter obviously isn't one of those games - and neither is something like CoD - but there have been plenty of other big hits that only ever manage that level of success once, before collapsing, sometimes quickly with the next release, and sometimes slowly over the course of a few releases or a generation transition.
 

jman2050

Member
Vita has it's own problems without Monster Hunter on the 3DS - i'll go one further and say i think Mario Kart is a much bigger and much more important game for the 3DS.

I think that's going to be the 3DS juggernaut - i've seen grandmothers buying it and it seems wherever i go shopping people are standing in queues holding a copy. Plus - of course - that's aimed at the traditional nintendo fanbase.

I don't think anyone would dispute that. Long before MH on 3DS was even a thing people were banking on Mario Kart as the "savior" of the 3DS. Now, people are thinking about what the combination of all three big games will eventually do this holiday season.

Interestingly, many also seem to have a "moment" after which the mass audience moves on never to return. Monster Hunter obviously isn't one of those games - and neither is something like CoD - but there have been plenty of other big hits that only ever manage that level of success once, before collapsing, sometimes quickly with the next release, and sometimes slowly over the course of a few releases or a generation transition.

Then you have something like Pokemon which somehow manages to refresh its mass target audience every five years or so.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I'm sorry, I wasn't clear enough there: that line of argument was insane and I'm not going to engage with it. :p
What is insane about it? You basically said that it is possible to forsee any outcome of untested things just by using basic capacity for reason and apply information from observation to draw conclusions, and that everything else would be wrong. There are a lot of examples where doing this doesnt necessarily give you the true answer.

Going to the moon and making a game multiplatform are of course on quite different scales of accomplishment, but the principle in this case is the same as i explained in my previous post. I just use one example to show that you cant always forseen the outcome just by making a hypothesis. I guess that you somewhat can use the term "theory and practice" here :)

If you think that everything can be forseen by using basic capacity for reason and apply information from observation to draw conclusions, then ok, i respect your opinion on this. But personally i think that many things needs to be tried out before one can know for sure what the result will be.



Your position has been based on getting it into your head that the situation for MH is exactly equivalent to your average Western online shooter on PS3/360, and no other information will sway you, even as you admit that you don't really know anything about the franchise, how people play it, or why it sells! This is the worst kind of devil's-advocate argumentation and it applies exactly equivalently to any ridiculous new approach that "hasn't been tried."
I said that i think that MH can work fine on two platforms. And i know that the big draw with MH games are portability and local multiplayer. If you release MH on two platforms, the reason for why it sells wont go away. If you buy i.e the Vita version and all of your friend also have Vita and MH, then you can play it against them just like it would be by playing using a 3DS. So that selling point isnt any different. Your counter arguement against this is that it will cause compability problems (if we're talking about the same game as multiplatform, not two different MH games), but then i say that i dont think this is a big problem.

It isnt about swaying me by the way. I've said several of times that what you're saying makes sense and that this could very well be the case. I'm not really arguing against you on this. All i'm saying is that there is a chance, but you say "nope, your wrong" as it is a fact, at least that is how i understood it. I dont mind that you totally disagree with me on this, but i dont think you should put it like a fact when it hasnt been tested yet.

Can i ask why you dont want to answer on my other question about what your view is on two different MH games?
 

Rhod

Member
Why are you making the completely unfounded implication that the majority of the MH PSP fanbase overlaps with the "doesnt care about Nintendo" demographic?

Purely anecdotal, from living in Japan for many years working with young adult gamers and developers. Please understand though, I'm not saying Charlie is *right*, merely that he is in no way obviously wrong. There are plenty of factors beyond just 'it's MonHan' to consider, and this is not Capcom/Nintendo's first attempt to foster the 'playstation gamer' market on Nintendo systems, to limited success in the past.

Spiegel said:
Announcing MH3G AND MH4 and saying that no MH game is in development for Vita is not clear enough?

Not remotely enough. 'No MH game in development for Vita' could simply mean that it's in development for PS3 (Edit: Or PSP!), and they add Vita support at a later date.

EDIT: I realise this can be read as sounding very melodramatic and over the top. I don't mean it as such and I'm not saying 'MH3G bomba!' or any such thing. Merely that there is a big hill Nintendo are trying to climb here with their attempts to make 3DS pick up the PSP's hotness of the past few years. Way I see it, Charlie's views are very well founded, even if this was the moment that turns the tide.
 

Takao

Banned
There's actually some rumors flying around that Monster Hunter Portable 3rd G is going to be announced as Sony's "surprise" for PSP and Vita at JUMP Festa.

I kind of hope it isn't...
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
If you release MH on two platforms, the reason for why it sells wont go away. If you buy i.e the Vita version and all of your friend also have Vita and MH, then you can play it against them just like it would be by playing using a 3DS. So that selling point isnt anything different. Your counter arguement against this is that it will cause compability problems, but then i say that i dont think this is a big problem.

here's something i've been mulling over.

Who owns save data?

Basically - what happens if Capcom decide to open an online service called, say, Hunter Base where you , ugh, "cloud save" your save data to. Now this is significant in that they hold your data and/or statistics.

If/When a new Monster Hunter comes out -even on a different platform- you then have a tool where by Capcom can offer a 'conversion' or 'equivalence' service. So for instance - if this service had existed right now and MH3P players who had signed up for Hunter Base had uploaded thier save data could have had (even paid?) Capcom to allow them to allow the basic save data to come across into MH3G at an equivalent rank whilst retaining equipment (or decent bonus equivalent). If the game isn't the same, then an equivalent starting rank etc. Lots of options and possibilities - ultimately it's beneficial to Capcom and to users as it means platform swaps (or even multiple versions on different platforms) have a possible element of continuity. If this sort of set up was in place now then i'm sure the uptake of MH3P players to 3DS would be increased (the thought of starting all over again was part of the reason i decided against getting the game myself ) - and yes, i do realise that MHTriG is a G revision of tri and not MH3P ;)

I suspect save data is owned by the platform holders though - but i just wonder....

There's actually some rumors flying around that Monster Hunter Portable 3rd G is going to be announced as Sony's "surprise" for PSP and Vita at JUMP Festa.

I kind of hope it isn't...

Yeah, i'm kind of ready for a totally new MH. That said - i'm impressed with MH3G itself so whilst it'd be nice to be on Vita the 3DS will make a perfectly good looking MH
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
There's actually some rumors flying around that Monster Hunter Portable 3rd G is going to be announced as Sony's "surprise" for PSP and Vita at JUMP Festa.

I kind of hope it isn't...

Where did this rumor originate from?
 

Takao

Banned
Where did this rumor originate from?

Some sites quoting Japanese image boards (I know, I know), Capcom's goof on the TriG online instructions (listing PlayStation buttons...), and some Monster Hunter game making an appearance at some Hong Kong game show. It's really nowhere near being anything solid. I also think it would be pretty dumb of SCE to announce Capcom's bringing a new Monster Hunter after TriG, and Vita's launch.
 

Sadist

Member
Some sites quoting Japanese image boards (I know, I know), Capcom's goof on the TriG online instructions (listing PlayStation buttons...), and some Monster Hunter game making an appearance at some Hong Kong game show. It's really nowhere near being anything solid. I also think it would be pretty dumb of SCE to announce Capcom's bringing a new Monster Hunter after TriG, and Vita's launch.
Wait, this is really happened? Wow.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Some sites quoting Japanese image boards (I know, I know), Capcom's goof on the TriG online instructions (listing PlayStation buttons...), and some Monster Hunter game making an appearance at some Hong Kong game show. It's really nowhere near being anything solid. I also think it would be pretty dumb of SCE to announce Capcom's bringing a new Monster Hunter after TriG, and Vita's launch.

Ah, I've just checked about that list with MH3G on it...it seems SCEH confirmed it was an error: they were meaning MHP3rd.
 

jman2050

Member
Maybe it's just a reconfirmation of that Portable 3rd Vita port they were talking about at E3?

...Was it a port? Or just a software hook for the PSP game to make it work with Vita controls? I don't remember.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
To my mind, getting a large MH community on Nintendo systems will take a very clear announcement that it is exclusive. Failing that there is nothing to say that Capcom aren't just playing one hardware manufacturer against the other, a practice which they are in fact World Class Masters of.

By large MH community you mean the + 4million who bought MHP 3rd on PSP ? If so, this process will take time on any new - non PSP plattforms. Its not like the next MH Vita title would just have sold +3 million in its first week. I doubt that it would have sold more than its selling on 3DS with Vitas price and the probably lower userbase.

MH is mainstream....if the quality is there i dont see why cant be a big success on other mobile plattforms.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Maybe it's just a reconfirmation of that Portable 3rd Vita port they were talking about at E3?

...Was it a port? Or just a software hook for the PSP game to make it work with Vita controls? I don't remember.

PSP Emulation with the great novelty of the second analogue.
 

Takao

Banned
Ah, I've just checked about that list with MH3G on it...it seems SCEH confirmed it was an error: they were meaning MHP3rd.

Even if it was true (which I kind of I hope it isn't), given this would be prior to announcement, of course they'd say it was an error!

Wait, this is really happened? Wow.

It wasn't as bad as I made it sound, but yeah Crapcon indeed:

j5vPT.jpg


They did eventually correct their goof.

Maybe it's just a reconfirmation of that Portable 3rd Vita port they were talking about at E3?

...Was it a port? Or just a software hook for the PSP game to make it work with Vita controls? I don't remember.

That was just Portable 3rd patched to use the second analog stick.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
500k on day one? That would mean it was moving at a similar pace to MH3.

I hope Famitsu publishes a report tomorrow night...

Famitsu report second week in a row is very difficult as there will be another report next Monday for Vita.

What could save it is that 3DS crossed 3 miliions.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
here's something i've been mulling over.

Who owns save data?

Basically - what happens if Capcom decide to open an online service called, say, Hunter Base where you , ugh, "cloud save" your save data to. Now this is significant in that they hold your data and/or statistics.

If/When a new Monster Hunter comes out -even on a different platform- you then have a tool where by Capcom can offer a 'conversion' or 'equivalence' service. So for instance - if this service had existed right now and MH3P players who had signed up for Hunter Base had uploaded thier save data could have had (even paid?) Capcom to allow them to allow the basic save data to come across into MH3G at an equivalent rank whilst retaining equipment (or decent bonus equivalent). If the game isn't the same, then an equivalent starting rank etc. Lots of options and possibilities - ultimately it's beneficial to Capcom and to users as it means platform swaps (or even multiple versions on different platforms) have a possible element of continuity. If this sort of set up was in place now then i'm sure the uptake of MH3P players to 3DS would be increased (the thought of starting all over again was part of the reason i decided against getting the game myself ) - and yes, i do realise that MHTriG is a G revision of tri and not MH3P ;)

I suspect save data is owned by the platform holders though - but i just wonder....
The savefile would be both locally and online (in the cloud). At least i dont think that they would make it so that you would require online access all the time to be able to save.

I have no idea if it is possible to convert a savegame like that though.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Famitsu report second week in a row is very difficult as there will be another report next Monday for Vita.

What could save it is that 3DS crossed 3 miliions.

But...
...3 millions are destined to happen this week!

It would only need to sell something like 150k, and all we know it probably did it...even 300k!
 

jman2050

Member
By large MH community you mean the + 4million who bought MHP 3rd on PSP ? If so, this process will take time on any new - non PSP plattforms. Its not like the next MH Vita title would just have sold +3 million in its first week. I doubt that it would have sold more than its selling on 3DS with Vitas price and the probably lower userbase.

MH is mainstream....if the quality is there i dont see why cant be a big success on other mobile plattforms.

To be fair, it's impossible to say what effect the low and growing userbase would have on a title like this during a generational transition. The only other series that fits the profile of how Monster Hunter sells and remains popular is Pokemon, and in that instance Nintendo always withheld mainline games on new platforms until said platforms attained a level of maturity.
 

Rhod

Member
By large MH community you mean the + 4million who bought MHP 3rd on PSP ? If so, this process will take time on any new - non PSP plattforms.

I completely agree. Which makes slight pessimism even more understandable in the context of the 3DS user base.

Again, I am not making any sales predictions, I was just interested in why DCharlie was being singled out for his low-balling when his predictions are surely well within the realms of possibility. But perhaps I just read it all wrong.
 
I completely agree. Which makes slight pessimism even more understandable in the context of the 3DS user base.

Again, I am not making any sales predictions, I was just interested in why DCharlie was being singled out for his low-balling when his predictions are surely well within the realms of possibility. But perhaps I just read it all wrong.

The problem with DCharlie's prediction is that he thinks it'll never pass 800K (based on the sales of the Wii MHTri) and that then Capcom will cancel MH4 for the 3DS and move it to something else.
Both of which are highly unlikely.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
I'm thinking 500k week one, 298k week two, and negative -150k week three as everyone realizes they made a terrible mistake and patiently wait for the glorious return of Mon Hun to the Vita.
 
Purely anecdotal, from living in Japan for many years working with young adult gamers and developers. Please understand though, I'm not saying Charlie is *right*, merely that he is in no way obviously wrong.

His prediction was 800k lifetime after an enormous demand collapse. There's lots of room to debate whether MH3G will be "successful" relative to various different standards, it's just that 800k is ultra low by even the most conservative reasonable estimate.

Merely that there is a big hill Nintendo are trying to climb here with their attempts to make 3DS pick up the PSP's hotness of the past few years.

People have been citing platform fanboyism as an explanation for incipient bombas for years and years and it's never been as relevant as the people citing it think it is. It's basically the "I'm an expert" argument gussied up. It is in fact implausible to think that there's a statistically significant portion of gamers who love Monster Hunter and yet would refuse to buy an otherwise-desirable game solely because of the brand printed on the outside of the box.

(And, I mean, it's already been made pretty clear that it is in fact exclusive, so I also find it implausible that Japanese gamers are hoping against hope that it'll move to Vita and avoiding a purchase solely on that tiny ray of hope.)
 

jman2050

Member
I completely agree. Which makes slight pessimism even more understandable in the context of the 3DS user base.

Again, I am not making any sales predictions, I was just interested in why DCharlie was being singled out for his low-balling when his predictions are surely well within the realms of possibility. But perhaps I just read it all wrong.

Because 800k is a monumentally extreme low-balling. No one is expecting MH3G to sell 5 million, some think it might not reach even half of that. 800k is going too far in the other direction.
 
What is insane about it?

You responded to a fact-oriented argument with "nothing is impossible!!! man went to the moon!!! you gotta believe!!! UNICORN POWAH!!!" There's a reason that this is a time-worn cliche for the type of thing brainless hippies and irritatingly dense guidance counselors say. "Anything is possible" is a completely empty, meaningless argument.

I said that i think that MH can work fine on two platforms. If you release MH on two platforms, the reason for why it sells wont go away. If you buy i.e the Vita version and all of your friend also have Vita and MH, then you can play it against them just like it would be by playing using a 3DS.

But they won't. That's the entire point. Some people will wind up with different versions of the game within each social group, and the networks of acquaintances that people tap into to play (like "other kids at school") won't exist because the game will be split across platforms.

This argument is a bit like suggesting that we can't prove that Mario Kart would be equally successful if it only had online multiplayer. Yes, we can't prove it, and you can make up all kinds of justifications -- "people only play Uncharted online! when you get down to it, people will want to play with friends who have their own consoles, I don't think not having local play will really make an impact :)" -- but ultimately, it's bone-dead obvious that taking away or restricting the core selling points of a franchise will hurt that franchise's performance.

Can i ask why you dont want to answer on my other question?

I don't know what you mean.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
The arguement between charlequin and test_account is going on, and going on, and going on...

...And I'm with charlequin on this.
 

Takao

Banned
Prior to the betrayal I was very much of the opinion that Monster Hunter should be exclusive to one handheld if Capcom doesn't want things working out poorly. Though I also stated that maybe they'd try a different series on each platform. I made the joke that they'd pull a SQenix and make the Poka Poka Ailu games on 3DS, and legit MH games on Vita, but we all know how that went...

Depending on how much milk Capcom thinks they can get out of that cow I suppose they could continue the Portable series on Sony hardware, and keep the mainline/previously console series on Nintendo hardware, as that would make it easier for the fanbase than making the same game multi. But that isn't very realistic.
 

gconsole

Member
In the end Capcom will just gain more for bringing MH to 3DS while also maintain the game on PS Vita. They don't care how many people will move over from PSP to 3DS but how many more people on Nintendo system will care about MH.
 

wsippel

Banned
Nothing is confirmed right now but the 3DS got Slime Mori Mori 3, is getting the Terry's wonderland remake and there's rumor about it getting a DQ VII remake... That's the same kind of support the DS got before DQ IX.
3DS will supposedly get something DQX related as well. Probably something that connects to the main game in some form.
 
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