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[djplaeskool]

Konami's Fairy Tale games did average iirc. Arcana did great compared to Apocalypse.

I stand corrected...again :/
Didn't think Arcana broke the 200k mark worldwide.

Valhalla Knights? White Knight Chronicles? I'm sure there are several which no one even thinks of because they've fallen through the cracks and no one remembers them.

Good call. VK did about as well as Arcana. WKC: Dogma Wars worse than either of them.

 

[duckroll]

FFVII probably doesn't have more areas than TLR, no, although I suspect the per-item cost of producing assets at the level needed for a compelling FF7R would be significantly higher.

But you're right, the big advantage FF7R would have would be a pre-defined asset map. Instead of faffing around for three years making map assets that don't even wind up in the game, they could just spend that time actually going through all the areas in FF7 and rebuilding them!

Do they really have to completely rebuild them? Let's not forget that most of the areas in FFVII have already been remade in full 3D for Crisis Core. Taking that as a base and simply making it more detailed probably isn't much work at all compared to creating brand new areas in TLR.

The issue I have here is that there is this hypothetical assumption in the air that a FFVII remake would need to be of such insanely high quality that it would surpass anything out there right now and cost a gazillion dollars. Now does anyone really believe that? Seriously? We're talking about a world where people are pretty happy buying stuff like Tales of Xillia, Skyrim, and FFXIII.

I don't really think the graphical bar is that high at all, but it is simply an excuse created by the developers when they don't actually want to work on such a project. "It's too hard" is a very good excuse to convince people why it's a good idea for you not to make it, when the real reason is more like "I don't feel like doing this."

 

[djplaeskool]

"It's too hard" is a very good excuse to convince people why it's a good idea for you not to make it, when the real reason is more like "I don't feel like doing this."

Funny enough, I've always taken the asides and comments made by SE staff about a VII remake to range somewhere in between, "We don't want to do this.", "We don't feel like doing this.", and "For the love of God don't make us do this."

 

[Father_Brain]

I quite don't agree with the red part since Uncharted launched at a rather high price but I do get your point. The Vita strategy relies on early buyers of a specific demographics buying games and hardware, which is bound to switch to the PS4. The next buyers would be another audience with less purchase power and for whom the device would still be cool with adequate software.

Lifetime sales curve would be like :

x-axis is years, y-axis sales per year. Light yellow are mid-20s dudes, the purple zone is teenagers. Would be cool for Sony.

Your last bolded paragraph is not painting a rosy picture. If Nintendo gets all possible demographics with the 3DS before the PS4 launches, then it will pretty much confine the PSVita to a niche. And Sony will have to rethink what its audience will be from that point onwards.

With respect to the West, I'm fairly confident that next year's sales figures will indicate that Sony made a very bad gamble on the size of the audience for handheld dudebro games. Particularly when several are priced at $50 and the minimum entry fee to play them is $270.

That said, as with much of their Vita strategy, it's tough to name any alternate gamble that would have been likely to produce vastly better results.

(I don't see Nintendo doing much better at winning over the young dudebro crowd, but their Western 3DS strategy isn't primarily dependent on that.)

 

[Takao]

People thought WKC: Origins was the spawn of the devil (I've only seen Dragon Ball Z: Ultimate Blast get worse Amazon ratings quicker) so it not doing amazingly well isn't a surprise.

 

[djplaeskool]

People thought WKC: Origins was the spawn of the devil (I've only seen Dragon Ball Z: Ultimate Blast get worse Amazon ratings quicker) so it not doing amazingly well isn't a surprise.

True that.
I'm a homer for both PS3 WKC games, and Dogma Wars was just downright bad.

 

[Spiegel]

I'm not sure we can make that claim for Revelations so confidently before it's even out. Maybe you forgot what it was like for Portable Ops when it was announced and released. It was definitely perceived as the "real thing" back then, when there is no better comparison to be made. In future if there's a better portable RE, the same thing could well happen.

Well, Revelations doesn't seem to be a dumbed down version in which developers have cut corners "to accomodate the gameplay for handheld play" (translation: to spend much less money making the game).

From all the demos, footage shown and announced content, the only difference that seems to exist between a possible RE6 and RE:R is the graphics.

And still, I'm not saying RE:R needs to do RE5 numbers to be considered a success even though Peace Walker did similar numbers to MGS1-3, just that I'd consider 180k unit sold in Japan a major failure.

 

[Takao]

I think the fact that Revelations is always in a corridor and never an open environment might be a good case for that game limiting its scope for a handheld.

 

[test_account]

With respect to the West, I'm fairly confident that next year's sales figures will indicate that Sony made a very bad gamble on the size of the audience for handheld dudebro games. Particularly when several are priced at $50 and the minimum entry fee to play them is $270.

That said, as with much of their Vita strategy, it's tough to name any alternate gamble that would have been likely to produce vastly better results.

(I don't see Nintendo doing much better at winning over the young dudebro crowd, but their Western 3DS strategy isn't primarily dependent on that.)

Besides Uncharted Golden Abyss, which Vita games are priced at $50?

 

[thestopsign]

After beeing called out for beeing to optimistic for the prior estimations I tried this time not to overestimate and to take into account the worst case scenario. I know that games like Fire Emblem, Resident Evil or even something like Theatrythm and Kid Icarus have the potential to sell more but this time I went more often then not with the smaller number. The numbers weren´t meant to be the ceiling.

You are missing the point of predicting then. It's not only about being optimistic or pessimistic about certain potentials or "taking into account the worst case scenario". It's about predicting using the prior information that you have on each subject. In the case of Fire Emblem, that series is pretty consistent, it sells about 250k or above almost every time on the handheld. There is no reason to go with smaller numbers in that case. It's like saying, I see this franchise that sells the exact same amount with every entry, but just for shits and giggles I'm going to predict that it sells 100k less than normal. If there was a downward sales trend, that would be one thing, but in this case there really isn't.

I didn't adjust your Theatrythm and Kid Icarus numbers much because there is no way of predicting where those will land because there is no prior data, those are just shots in the dark. Make sure to do your research where you can though, Harvest Moon, Mario and Sonic, LovePlus, and Miku all have pretty well documented sales histories, no reason not to use them.

 

[duckroll]

Well, Revelations doesn't seem to be a dumbed down version in which developers have cut corners "to accomodate the gameplay for handheld play" (translation: to spend much less money making the game).

From all the demos, footage shown and announced content, the only difference that seems to exist between a possible RE6 and RE:R is the graphics.

Sounds exactly like everything that was being said about Portable Ops before it came out.

 

[Father_Brain]

Besides Uncharted Golden Abyss, which Vita games are priced at $50?

None yet, but I very much doubt that it'll be the sole console-esque Vita release priced that high.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I think the fact that Revelations is always in a corridor and never an open environment might be a good case for that game limiting its scope for a handheld.

I thought there were more open areas in the mountain section? And weren't both RE4 and RE5 (though 5 to a lesser extent) fairly corridor-heavy?

 

[Kandinsky]

KH is the only game I see selling well on 3DS's Q1 lineup, in fact I believe it will even outsell BbS, the rest are meh to bomba imo.

I do pray Kid Icarus turns out to be a hit though.

 

[Takao]

I thought there were more open areas in the mountain section? And weren't both RE4 and RE5 (though 5 to a lesser extent) fairly corridor-heavy?

I haven't seen any gameplay footage outside of the ship stuff actually. While corridors aren't new for RE, from the stuff I've seen Revelations seemed to bring that to a new level. In RE4/5 you had towns to traverse from and stuff.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I haven't seen any gameplay footage outside of the ship stuff actually. While corridors aren't new for RE, from the stuff I've seen Revelations seemed to bring that to a new level. In RE4/5 you had towns to traverse from and stuff.

The ship does seem to be fairly corridor-heavy, but that's not unusual for that type of environment. I wouldn't be surprised if Capcom had narrowed the areas down to allow them to push the system hard and keep the performance up, but for this particular game in this particular genre I don't think that's too much of an issue, and it's not like RE has been noted for it's free-roaming freedom so I don't think you could say that it moving to handheld is limiting it too much.

 

[Spiegel]

Sounds exactly like everything that was being said about Portable Ops before it came out.

Developers cut a lot of corners making Portable Ops, we didn't need Peace Walker to see that. Even Peace Walker had many corners cut.

Still, that wasn't my point. See my edit

 

[Chris1964]

Q1 for 3DS isn't so amazing as it sounds. Plenty of games but not the big hit from Nintendo. I don't know what's the exact reason but NCL took again a step back for first party releases, all release windows were delayed and looking at Fire Emblem's release date there is a possibilitty this is Nintendo's only "big" title for Golden Week.

 

[Boney]

I think the fact that Revelations is always in a corridor and never an open environment might be a good case for that game limiting its scope for a handheld.

But that's not true at all.

 

[duckroll]

Developers cut a lot of corners making Portable Ops, we didn't need Peace Walker to see that. Even Peace Walker had many corners cut.

Still, that wasn't my point. See my edit

I'm not arguing that RE:R should have low expectations either. I'm just saying that Portable Ops is a lot more important than it gets credit for. It also sold pretty damn well for what it was, which probably allowed Kojima Productions to even consider the PSP as a serious platform to begin with.

180k would be... less than MPO.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Q1 for 3DS isn't so amazing as it sounds. Plenty of games but not the big hit from Nintendo. I don't know what's the exact reason but NCL took again a step back for first party releases, all release windows were delayed and looking at Fire Emblem's release date there is a possibilitty this is Nintendo's only "big" title for Golden Week.

If you were inclined to look at it in a certain way, it does look as though they've "primed" the system with their big two releases + MH and a huge push for the hardware and are now going to take a step back, giving space for third-party titles.

Not sure whether it's planned - giving games like KH and RE a window where there aren't any competing releases from Nintendo - or whether it's accidental - the rush to get Mario Kart and SM3DL out for the holidays leaving them with a gap at the beginning of 2012 but the effect will be the same.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Q1 for 3DS isn't so amazing as it sounds. Plenty of games but not the big hit from Nintendo. I don't know what's the exact reason but NCL took again a step back for first party releases, all release windows were delayed and looking at Fire Emblem's release date there is a possibilitty this is Nintendo's only "big" title for Golden Week.

They dont have to rush their first party releases right now and can give 3rd Party releases some space to breath. Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection 2, Paper Mario and Co. will sell no matter when they get released, but its more important to obtain some 3rd Party success storys with Vita still being in its early days. With 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 Nintendo already set the stage, the system will sell because of those games even in Q1.

They are in a way more flexible position now, they will release their titles if hw sales fall flat or months were there arent many 3rd Party titles planned.

Q1 3DS software performance will be very tellin.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

KH is the only game I see selling well on 3DS's Q1 lineup, in fact I believe it will even outsell BbS, the rest are meh to bomba imo.

I do pray Kid Icarus turns out to be a hit though.

I'm pretty much expecting the same except I think Theatrhythm might surprise. Taiko gameplay plus nostalgic FF window dressing can be good ingredients for success.

 

[spwolf]

None yet, but I very much doubt that it'll be the sole console-esque Vita release priced that high.

BB still has it at $39.95, if you are actually interested in it.

 

[waicol]

I haven't seen any gameplay footage outside of the ship stuff actually. While corridors aren't new for RE, from the stuff I've seen Revelations seemed to bring that to a new level. In RE4/5 you had towns to traverse from and stuff.

Well the ship has alot of big parts that can resemble to towns in a size comparison like the dining room, the casino, the theater, etc.

 

[Cipherr]

I don't think these titles have to be blockbusters. It'll be more telling to see if a few of them can get into that middling territory of a couple hundred thousand LTD eventually. That's an area thats very important for a console. Those 200k-350k titles are the ones that keep a system a float in between the blockbusters.

 

[wrowa]

Nintendo doesn't have to release a huge first party game every two months. In the long run it's impossible to do so anyway; these games need to be developed after all and there are just so many big games a company can develop at a time until it runs out of ressources -- both in terms of manpower and big IPs/great ideas that haven't been released yet.

Nintendo's first party line-up is pretty solid for the upcoming months with Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem on the horizon. Neither of them have the potential to sell 300k copies and more (in case of Kid Icarus probably even much less than that), but they don't even have to. Having a healthy line-up for the core fans is important too, after all, and we can expect both MK7 and SM3DL to leg along for awhile.

The 3rd party line-up of the upcoming month is very good too and would probably be able to warrant good hardware sales on their own. There's a constant flow of games that will sell at least 200k and more with Revelations, Love Plus and Kingdom Hearts releasing next to each other.

 

[M-PG71C]

Nintendo doesn't have to release a huge first party game every two months. In the long run it's impossible to do so anyway; these games need to be developed after all and there are just so many big games a company can develop at a time until it runs out of ressources -- both in terms of manpower and big IPs/great ideas that haven't been released yet.

Nintendo's first party line-up is pretty solid for the upcoming months with Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem on the horizon. Neither of them have the potential to sell 300k copies and more (in case of Kid Icarus probably even much less than that), but they don't even have to. Having a healthy line-up for the core fans is important too, after all, and we can expect both MK7 and SM3DL to leg along for awhile.

The 3rd party line-up of the upcoming month is very good too and would probably be able to warrant good hardware sales on their own. There's a constant flow of games that will sell at least 200k and more with Revelations, Love Plus and Kingdom Hearts releasing next to each other.

This. And I think a lot of those titles are going to hit those numbers in the long run. There's a few wild cards like Kid Icarus and such but I don't think it's going to be impossible for RE/KH/LovePlus to hit 200K or so. If not more. I think the userbase exists for these titles to produce decent numbers.

Especially with Nintendo letting them have breathing room, that's especially important. FE and KI will sell well enough regardless of when they hit so it was probably best they are going to be released towards the very end of Q1.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I do sort of wonder why Luigi's Mansion 2 and Animal Crossing got bumped back out of Q1. Do we know any Q2 games besides Fire Emblem and Mario Tennis?

 

[Laguna]

@thestopsign
Well, I wrote in the same post that these expectations were just for fun and without any further analysis, I did them in about a minute just to start a discussion. I´ll probably do a better informed guess in January.

Nintendo doesn't have to release a huge first party game every two months. In the long run it's impossible to do so anyway; these games need to be developed after all and there are just so many big games a company can develop at a time until it runs out of ressources -- both in terms of manpower and big IPs/great ideas that haven't been released yet.

Nintendo's first party line-up is pretty solid for the upcoming months with Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem on the horizon. Neither of them have the potential to sell 300k copies and more (in case of Kid Icarus probably even much less than that), but they don't even have to. Having a healthy line-up for the core fans is important too, after all, and we can expect both MK7 and SM3DL to leg along for awhile.

The 3rd party line-up of the upcoming month is very good too and would probably be able to warrant good hardware sales on their own. There's a constant flow of games that will sell at least 200k and more with Revelations, Love Plus and Kingdom Hearts releasing next to each other.

I agree, they just released 2 longtimesellers with 3Dland and MK7 and there still is MHTriG that probably will continue to sell. The lineup looks really good with some decent 3rd party sellers and with Revelation and KH as highlights. Nintendo will try to establish a "new" franchise with Kid Icarus. They could release Animal Crossing as a big title but there´s enough competition as it is early next year.

 

[ElFly]

Do they really have to completely rebuild them? Let's not forget that most of the areas in FFVII have already been remade in full 3D for Crisis Core. Taking that as a base and simply making it more detailed probably isn't much work at all compared to creating brand new areas in TLR.

I kind of doubt those assets can be reused much, unless we are talking about a 3DS remake.

 

[thestopsign]

@thestopsign
Well, I wrote in the same post that these expectations were just for fun and without any further analysis, I did them in about a minute just to start a discussion. I´ll probably do a better informed guess after the holiday season.

Woops, didn't read that part haha. Thought those were serious predictions.

 

[saichi]

I mean, seriously: FFVII was outrageously era-specific, lightning in a bottle that came from reading the exact tone of that moment's zeitgeist and serving up a product that tapped it exactly the right way. Square-Enix trying to turn around its fortunes with a slavish remake today is basically the equivalent of if NBC tried to break out of their last-place TV rut with a Friends reunion.

can't say it would still be the most watched sitcom on TV but will definitely be the most watched NBC sitcom. I'm still waiting for the Friends movie! (as well as 24 Movie)

Q1 for 3DS isn't so amazing as it sounds. Plenty of games but not the big hit from Nintendo. I don't know what's the exact reason but NCL took again a step back for first party releases, all release windows were delayed and looking at Fire Emblem's release date there is a possibilitty this is Nintendo's only "big" title for Golden Week.

3DS Q1 release schedule might not be amazing but it's pretty damn solid (and packed).

 

[GCX]

Q1 for 3DS isn't so amazing as it sounds. Plenty of games but not the big hit from Nintendo. I don't know what's the exact reason but NCL took again a step back for first party releases, all release windows were delayed and looking at Fire Emblem's release date there is a possibilitty this is Nintendo's only "big" title for Golden Week.

I don't remember when Nintendo would had actually released a big hit in Q1. They save those for Spring and Fall.

3DS has a great line-up. Not amazing but great. No big blockbusters but plenty of games to keep the system alive.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I do sort of wonder why Luigi's Mansion 2 and Animal Crossing got bumped back out of Q1. Do we know any Q2 games besides Fire Emblem and Mario Tennis?

Last time we saw Luigis Mansion it didnt ran so smooth, maybe Next Level Games just needs more time to polish it and right now Nintendo doesnt need to rush their titles.

With Vitas Q1 lineup also not looking THAT strong, it makes sense to try to release their biggest titles in the 2nd half of the year when its expected that more impactful Vita software will be launched (FFX HD). With Pokemon Gray ( or R/S Remakes), AC and Tomodachi Collection 2 they`ll have at least 3 multi million seller ready for the 2nd half.

They also have to get there WiiU launch ready, so Nintendo will be thankful for every months were 3rd Party releases are enough to maintain high hardware sales.

 

[duckroll]

I kind of doubt those assets can be reused much, unless we are talking about a 3DS remake.

Design != assets. The conceptualizing the actual design and layout of an area and ensuring it actually looks good and is functional takes up a lot of actual creative time. The physical act of shitting out the assets is something that can be offset by outsourcing.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Last time we saw Luigis Mansion it didnt ran so smooth, maybe Next Level Games just needs more time to polish it and right now Nintendo doesnt need to rush their titles.

With Vitas Q1 lineup also not looking THAT strong, it makes sense to try to release their biggest titles in the 2nd half of the year when its expected that more impactful Vita software will be launched (FFX HD). With Pokemon Gray ( or R/S Remakes), AC and Tomodachi Collection 2 they`ll have at least 3 multi million seller ready for the 2nd half.

They also have to get there WiiU launch ready, so Nintendo will be thankful for every months were 3rd Party releases are enough to maintain high hardware sales.

Well hopefully LM2's delay means Next Level can add CPPro support for GCN controls. Tilt can go fuck itself.

With Animal Crossing's delay though, I think we might see Tomodachi Collection pushed out of 2012. Something tells me Nintendo won't want to launch both near each other.

 

[electroplankton]

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 625k - 3D can be easily considered a mainline game as Birth By Sleep so it will do probably around 700-750k. It is highly anticipated, and it seems it has a lot of new contents enough to justify the purchase for the wider fanbase.
Resident Evil: Revelations: 180k That's too low. Revelations looks a lot like Code Veronica, which sold around 340k on PS2. It could do in the range 400-450k, also considering the fact that The Mercenaries 3D did pretty well.
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 150k Since it's a new chapter, and the remakes on DS sold a lot, it could manage to sell even 300k units.

New Love Plus: 140k Probably more in the 200-250k range. Tits are welcomed on 3DS.
Kid Icarus: 125k This is difficult to predict: it could be either a complete bomba, or breakthrough success. Anyway Nintendo will push it as much as it can.
Dynasty Warriors VS: 115k Samurai Warriors Chronicles sold well (140k IIRC), this seems a pretty reasonable prediction.
Bravely Default: 100k (ok this one has no release date yet) I do hope this will sell well since I'd like to see Square Enix back to a certain style of developing RPG; anyway, it is almost impossible to understand how it can do, it will depend a lot on the launch period and how the company will market it.

Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: - 90k Yeah, that's what I think for it.
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 90k Hatsune Miku fans are a lot and very faithful, and chibi Miku is irresistible so probably well over 100k.
Mario&Sonic at London Olympics: 80k It will sell over time but this is what it can do in the first months, maybe during Summer it will increase.
Girl's RPG: - 80k Waaaaay less. 40k?
Rythem Thief R: - 50k Also here, I don't expect a lot from this title. 40k seems more reasonable, it also depends on how the demo will be received.
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: - 60k Yes, something like that.
Beyond the Labyrinth: - 60k It doesn't seem Frontier Gate went so well, anyway the concept is neat and it could attract Etrian Odyssey fanbase.

Harvest Moon Hajimari no Daichi: - 65k Also 100k. Harvest Moon on DS could reach a peak of 300k, and the brand is still appreciated.
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 50k The name is big and it's portable, so why not 100-120k?
Ghost Camera: 35k Exactly.
Ace Combat 3DS - 30k I hope more since it tanked in the States, but its the first arrival on a Nintendo console so more or less those numbers.

This is what I think about that.
Surely a GREAT period for 3DS since a new console needs this kind of variety, even if there are few big names. If those games will sell, there will be the possibility to see sequel, spin-offs, similar projects and so to become a more complete platform.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Well hopefully LM2's delay means Next Level can add CPPro support for GCN controls. Tilt can go fuck itself.

With Animal Crossing's delay though, I think we might see Tomodachi Collection pushed out of 2012. Something tells me Nintendo won't want to launch both near each other.

I still think both titles will hit in 2012, they also seem to be quite far in development and Iwata stated that 2012 will be the year where they will release a couple of those mainstream games - TC2 for a summer release and the new AC could be release Fall/Holiday season. If those titles deliver they`ll probably sell for years, same as Mario Kart.

Nintendos goal will be to reach the + 10 Million userbase as far as possible so the system can take care of it self and there is a constant software support. They`ll have to support WiiU with stronger titles, than the 3DS at launch or they will head for another failure. For Q1 2013 MH 4 should be ready, new Zelda game and Smash Bros. 3DS also should hit that year.

 

[Alrus]

I'm pretty much expecting the same except I think Theatrhythm might surprise. Taiko gameplay plus nostalgic FF window dressing can be good ingredients for success.

KH is the only game I see selling well on 3DS's Q1 lineup, in fact I believe it will even outsell BbS, the rest are meh to bomba imo.

I do pray Kid Icarus turns out to be a hit though.

Are you guys talking in terms of general sales for these games, or specific to their series? I mean, not every title is supposed to sell 500k+ lifetime, some of those will be considered success if they reach 200-300k.

Love Plus for example, has the potential to sell very nicely, which means, around 200-250k, which is not bad at all for a dating sim.

Also, I don't see why people think RE:R would do such terrible numbers, Mercenaries (an obvious cash-in) sold about 100k back when the 3DS wasn't too hot. I expect Revelation to do much better. 180k is ridiculously low.

For bombs :
-I think Girls RPG won't sell well at all (it's a hostess game, but marketed for girls? It seems a bit weird...).
-Kid Icarus could do awful but it's a bit hard to compare it to anything so it's pretty much a shot in the dark...
-Tekken 3D, I honestly don't know, but DoA bombed, and it doesn't seem like Namco is spending too much on marketing this one.
-Rhythm Thief R, well rhythm can be really successful but superficially it looks a bit like Layton and all supercially-looking-like-Layton games bombed really bad.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I still think both titles will hit in 2012, they also seem to be quite far in development and Iwata stated that 2012 will be the year where they will release a couple of those mainstream games - TC2 for a summer release and the new AC could be release Fall/Holiday season. If those titles deliver they`ll probably sell for years, same as Mario Kart.

Nintendos goal will be to reach the + 10 Million userbase as far as possible so the system can take care of it self and there is a constant software support. They`ll have to support WiiU with stronger titles, than the 3DS at launch or they will head for another failure. For Q1 2013 MH 4 should be ready, new Zelda game and Smash Bros. 3DS also should hit that year.

Well Tomodachi was never confirmed for 2012, it's always been tba. I'd be surprised if we got it before AC unless it's just a port up.

I think MH4 will be 2012 though, probably exactly a year from MH3G. I don't see any concievable way we'd get Smash Bros just a year after Kid Icarus though, that game's probably 2014. No idea about Grezzo Zelda, I wish they'd just get MM3D out the door.

Are you guys talking in terms of general sales for these games, or specific to their series? I mean, not every title is supposed to sell 500k+ lifetime, some of those will be considered success if they reach 200-300k.

Love Plus for example, has the potential to sell very nicely, which means, around 200-250k, which is not bad at all for a dating sim.

Also, I don't see why people think RE:R would do such terrible numbers, Mercenaries (an obvious cash-in) sold about 100k back when the 3DS wasn't too hot. I expect Revelation to do much better. 180k is ridiculously low.

For bombs :
-I think Girls RPG won't sell well at all (it's a hostess game, but marketed for girls? It seems a bit weird...).
-Kid Icarus could do awful but it's a bit hard to compare it to anything so it's pretty much a shot in the dark...
-Tekken 3D, I honestly don't know, but DoA bombed, and it doesn't seem like Namco is spending too much on marketing this one.
-Rhythm Thief R, well rhythm can be really successful but superficially it looks a bit like Layton and all supercially-looking-like-Layton games bombed really bad.

I was talking overall, not relative terms. I expect New Love Plus to be in pine with the DS games too. Revelations seems like a solid 200-300k game imo, and I think Project mirai might surprise too.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Well Tomodachi was never confirmed for 2012, it's always been tba. I'd be surprised if we got it before AC unless it's just a port up.

I think MH4 will be 2012 though, probably exactly a year from MH3G. I don't see any concievable way we'd get Smash Bros just a year after Kid Icarus though, that game's probably 2014. No idea about Grezzo Zelda, I wish they'd just get MM3D out the door.

This wouldnt be Nintendo-like - i mean showcasing such a title in fall 2011 and not release it till 2013. For Smash, they probably already have it runnin on 3DS, since they mentioned it will use Brawl as a base - if they plan to release it at the same time on WiiU and 3DS, it`ll probably take more time - but a Smash Bros. 4 on 3DS for 2012 should be possible, they wont re-invent the wheel for this project.

Im pretty sure the next original Zelda will be developed inouse and not by GREZZO. For MH, as duckroll already mentioned i expect Capcom to release a best-of version of Tri G once it stops selling on 3DS and maybe another Poka Poka village spin-off before MH4. I cant see MH 4 being released before March 2013, but within their next fiscal could be their goal.

March 13 for MH4 and the 3DS redesign would be my guess.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I haven't seen any gameplay footage outside of the ship stuff actually. While corridors aren't new for RE, from the stuff I've seen Revelations seemed to bring that to a new level. In RE4/5 you had towns to traverse from and stuff.

It's intentional. Fans have wanted a more return to form like RE and RE2 where things jump out around a claustrophopic corridor. Also there are open environments including a city and mountain as well as more open rooms in the ship such as the dining room and casino.

 

[Mpl90]

Just for information, this week's Hokanko Famitsu article reports what Vita games in top 30 did, approximately, according to Enterbrain

[PSV] Hot Shots Golf 6 (SCE) - 52.000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 43.000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 32.000
[PSV] Lord of Apocalypse (Square-Enix) - 29.000
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Returns (Nippon Ichi Software) - 22.000
[PSV] DLC Racer (Bandai Namco) - 19.000

And since GameDataMuseum updated some of the 3DS titles

3DS Top 15

[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 451.932 / 1.082.391 / 41,75% 01/12/11
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 344.698 / 1.042.511 / 33,06% 03/11/11
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) - 182.998 / 481.812 / 37,98% 16/06/11
[3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 471.055 / 471.055 / 100,00% 10/12/11
[3DS] Nintendogs+cats (Nintendo) - 68.973 / 389.028 / 17,73% 26/02/11
[3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracles (Level 5) - 117.589 / 345.511 / 34,03% 26/02/11
[3DS] Pokemon Rumble Blast (Nintendo) - 91.613 / 231.829 / 39,52% 11/08/11
[3DS] One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP (Bandai Namco) - 76.578 / 198.714 / 38,54% 26/05/11
[3DS] Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Koei Tecmo) - 43.044 / 146.334 / 29,41% 26/02/11
[3DS] Super Street Fighter 3D Edition (Capcom) - 38.557 / 135.925 / 28,37% 26/02/11
[3DS] Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D (Capcom) - 61.306 / 118.117 / 51,90% 02/06/11
[3DS] Tales of the Abyss (Bandai Namco) - 68.218 / 114.439 / 59,61% 30/06/11
[3DS] Ridge Racer 3D (Bandai Namco) - 34.663 / 110.415 / 31,39% 26/02/11
[3DS] Winning Eleven 3DSoccer (Konami) - 26.222 / 107.274 / 24,44% 26/02/11
[3DS] Pilotwings: Resort (Nintendo) - 27.729 / 83.926 / 33,04% 14/04/11

Note: some of these titles are updated at an older date, and for the newly updated it isn't clear the week the update refers to.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

This wouldnt be Nintendo-like - i mean showcasing such a title in fall 2011 and not release it till 2013. For Smash, they probably already have it runnin on 3DS, since they mentioned it will use Brawl as a base - if they plan to release it at the same time on WiiU and 3DS, it`ll probably take more time - but a Smash Bros. 4 on 3DS for 2012 should be possible, they wont re-invent the wheel for this project.

Im pretty sure the next original Zelda will be developed inouse and not by GREZZO. For MH, as duckroll already mentioned i expect Capcom to release a best-of version of Tri G once it stops selling on 3DS and maybe another Poka Poka village spin-off before MH4. I cant see MH 4 being released before March 2013, but within their next fiscal could be their goal.

March 13 for MH4 and the 3DS redesign would be my guess.

I dunno, we first saw Animal Crossing and Paper Mario at E3 2010, saw them again at E3 2011 and can look forward to a 3rd annual appearance at E3 2012, so it's not like there's no recent Nintendo precedent here. Tomodachi Collection was also the only 1st party game not given a 2012 confirmation at the fall conference iirc, which is pretty suggestive.

I could see Smash 3DS being rushed ahead of the console game (it's planned as more of a complementary game iirc), I'm just not expecting it that soon given the franchise and developer history. If it's only a year after KI, it's going to be a total rush job, and I just can't see Iwata and Sakurai going for that.

GREZZO is obviously being groomed as the new handheld Zelda house after OOT3D and FSAE. Aonuma probably doesn't want another 5 year gap in console games and so I think he'll likely move EAD3 directly to Wii U while leaving 3DS in Ishii's capable hands.

3DS redesign will definitely be holiday 2012 in Japan. Like clockwork after DSi and XL.
I could see MH4 getting pushed out a little, but the game's been in development awhile now.

 

[Gravijah]

I dunno, we first saw Animal Crossing and Paper Mario at E3 2010, saw them again at E3 2011 and can look forward to a 3rd annual appearance at E3 2012, so it's not like there's no recent Nintendo precedent here. Tomodachi Collection was also the only 1st party game not given a 2012 confirmation at the fall conference iirc, which is pretty suggestive.

iirc ac3ds was only announced at e3 2010, i don't think we saw anything.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

iirc ac3ds was only announced at e3 2010, i don't think we saw anything.

Nope, we had media for both.

 

[Gravijah]

Nope, we had media for both.

screenshots? certainly not a video.

 

[Mpl90]

screenshots? certainly not a video.

Screenshots, screenshots.

No one commenting the PSV and 3DS datas I reported?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

No one commenting the PSV and 3DS datas I reported?

3rd party match ups make me smile/takao cry.

3DS launch games really did well compared to Vita.