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[Kenka]

Remember the post where I said this thread got really stupid? Yeah, this is an example of one of those.

Takao, your posts don't counter ours. We are concerned about Vita and we have some logics left in our arguments (and we know what we are talking about) :
We have concerns about Vita's capacity to sustain growth beyond what the Gamecube did. For that to happen, customers arguably need incentives to buy the device, namely :

- a software library that is appreciated
- a friendly price for the mass
- services that appeal to them
- hardware that looks good and makes them want to show it off

For the moment, Vita has none of them ! OK, it looks good. But you need more than a dress to make a girl desirable. And we don't see when or if the Vita will have all of them. That's what we are saying.
You come with pathetic spins wind the others up ? Your posts are pretentious, empty and borderline off-topic. You want to see things positively in your parallel world ? Fine. Don't insult others.

 

[future_pinoy]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

 

[RPGamer92]

With the amount of games 3DS has, it should at least be at 10 million in Japan in a year from now right?

 

[Orgen]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

5 million for the 3DS? Not even the fanboys here expected such numbers.

And more Vita vs Iphone remarks... bah, nonsense.

 

[[Nintex]]

The most important challenge for Nintendo right now is to keep their developers(both first and third party) together. Reading interviews with various developers shows the Japanese feel they missed the boat with the HD-generation and it's clear they don't want to be late to another party(ios/android whatnot).

 

[Fafalada]

If Capcom has an engine capable of scaling HD assets

They don't.
Or rather - like everyone else, they use humans to do it.

 

[Chris1964]

5 million for the 3DS? Not even the fanboys here expected such numbers.

Before the launch fiasco NoE was expecting 10 million this year for Europe. 5 million for Japan could be very close to NCL's original target.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Before the launch fiasco NoE was expecting 10 million this year for Europe.

Ouch, really? That seems a little high for their ~20M WW LTD FY expectation, although I think they had a month after launch to come up with that one.

 

[Kenka]

Before the launch fiasco NoE was expecting 10 million this year for Europe. 5 million for Japan could be very close to NCL's original target.

Seriously ? The thing has probably sold 10 millions worldwide so far. How come did they expect to be probably past the 20M bar by March ?

 

[Rolf NB]

With the amount of games 3DS has, it should at least be at 10 million in Japan in a year from now right?

Also expect a massive wave of rebuys when the hardware revision hits.

 

[BurntPork]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

 

[BurntPork]

Also expect a massive wave of rebuys when the hardware revision hits.

Revision almost certainly isn't coming next year unless Nintendo has completely lost it and is trying to commit suicide. The special bundle (I forgot which one) coming in March means that it won't come before then, and anything after June will be too close to Wii U's launch.

 

[[Nintex]]

Seriously ? The thing has probably sold 10 millions worldwide so far. How come did they expect to be probably past the 20M bar by March ?

Nintendo expected growth and they expected games like Nintendogs to sell at least as good as their DS counterparts. Add in the fact that they banked on Super Street Fighter IV and Resident Evil bringing in the core gamers and in NoE's mind casual and hardcore gamers would jump on the system from day 1. Casual gamers would be there because of the 'wow, look at this 3D effect!' anyway and the Nintendo brand overall has never been stronger in Europe. In the end it didn't work out that way.

 

[BadWolf]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

So full of shit.

Not suprising though, considering who is saying this.

 

[test_account]

Any words on how much the new Nekketsu/River City Ransom/Street Gangs game sold? It didnt even make it into the Top 50

 

[future_pinoy]

if the 3DS launched at 149.99 there is a chance reaching 5 million

 

[Sammy Samusu]

maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games

LOL

With the amount of games 3DS has, it should at least be at 10 million in Japan in a year from now right?

Yep, they still have heavy hitters like Girls Mode, Tomodachi Collection and Animal Crossing, all already announced and probably coming out in 2012. And I'm thinking 5M by mid-February.

But Nintendo is overestimating Kid Icarus... Ain't nobody here for Sin & Punishment 3? It doesn't even look like a 300k game. /bomba

Let's hope third-party games (Kingdom Hearts, Love Plus, Resident Evil, Hatsune Miku) can do their part.

 

[Orgen]

Before the launch fiasco NoE was expecting 10 million this year for Europe. 5 million for Japan could be very close to NCL's original target.

Yep, I'm aware of Nintendo's expectations regarding 3DS before launch. But even after the fiasco/price cut, expecting 5 million in Japan was nuts. And with all that, 3DS will finish the year near the 4.5 million mark so his critics seem more out of place (the Vita/Iphone one is just the icing on the cake).

When does Nintendo give their forecast for the next fiscal year Chris? Before, when or after giving their numbers for this fiscal year? I want to see the expectations they have for the 3DS (and maybe we can get a date/expectations for the WiiU? or is this wishful thinking?)

Thanks in advance!

 

[Donnie]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

3DS has sold over 4 million in its first 40 weeks. DS sold just over 3 million in its first 40 weeks. How can he be disappointed with its sales? It honestly amazes me sometimes how even respected people in the games industry can sometimes say such stupid things.

 

[BurntPork]

Anyone think it could reach 5 million by its first anniversary? I think it has a decent shot.

 

[AdventureRacing]

But Nintendo is overestimating Kid Icarus... Ain't nobody here for Sin & Punishment 3? It doesn't even look like a 300k game. /bomba

A new quality star fox in the vein of SF64 would do better than both of them. Nintendo have really bungled that franchise.

 

[frankie_baby]

Anyone think it could reach 5 million by its first anniversary? I think it has a decent shot.

I'd say that's a definate probably nearer 5.5

 

[Donnie]

Anyone think it could reach 5 million by its first anniversary? I think it has a decent shot.

It'll probably be sitting at around 4.5m by the end of this week. At least 5m by its first anniversary is a certainty I'd say, 6m could be possible even.

 

[starship]

Anyone think it could reach 5 million by its first anniversary? I think it has a decent shot.

It's a no brainer.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Anyone think it could reach 5 million by its first anniversary? I think it has a decent shot.

Pretty safe bet, considering it should be supposedly over 4.5 millions mark right now.

 

[BurntPork]

I'd say that's a definate probably nearer 5.5

It'll probably be sitting at around 4.5m by the end of this week. At least 5m by its first anniversary is a certainty I'd say, 6m could be possible even.

It's a no brainer.

Pretty safe bet, considering it should be supposedly over 4.5 millions mark right now.

As I thought. (Though I think it'll only sell 300-350k this week.) The best first year ever in Japan. Is that not growth?

 

[walking fiend]

3DS has sold over 4 million in its first 40 weeks. DS sold just over 3 million in its first 40 weeks. How can he be disappointed with its sales? It honestly amazes me sometimes how even respected people in the games industry can sometimes say such stupid things.

Because every new iPhone sells a lot at launch. It is obviously based on their belief that a lot of the DS owners will want a new system very quick.

 

[Kenka]

After this week, at the end of which the 3DS should be around 4.3 millions (worst case scenario), there will be 8 weeks left until the last week of February.

To reach 6M, the 3DS will have to sell 1.700.000/8 = 215.000 per week.
5.5M after its first year : 150.000 per week
5M : 85.000 per week



That's quite a lot in all cases. But not unheared of. 3DS can still pull 300k+ numbers in both upcoming week, making the bet look much more reasonible.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

3DS has sold over 4 million in its first 40 weeks. DS sold just over 3 million in its first 40 weeks. How can he be disappointed with its sales? It honestly amazes me sometimes how even respected people in the games industry can sometimes say such stupid things.

Actually they - including Iwata - had very high expectations indeed, and may I add utterly unrealistic ones, seeing they made their predictions well before a price-cut was even conceived.

 

[starship]

After this week, at the end of which the 3DS should be around 4.3 millions (worst case scenario), there will be 8 weeks left until the last week of February. To reach 6M, the 3DS will have to sell 1.700.000/8 = 215.000 per week.

5.5M : 150.000 per week
5M : 85.000 per week

That's quite a lot in all cases. But not unheared of. 3DS can still pull 300k+ numbers in both upcoming week, making the bet look much more reasonible.

nvm.

 

[BurntPork]

After this week, at the end of which the 3DS should be around 4.3 millions (worst case scenario), there will be 8 weeks left until the last week of February. To reach 6M, the 3DS will have to sell 1.700.000/8 = 215.000 per week.

5.5M : 150.000 per week
5M : 85.000 per week

That's quite a lot in all cases. But not unheared of. 3DS can still pull 300k+ numbers in both upcoming week, making the bet look much more reasonible.

I believe that Chris said that the first week of the year is usually bigger than the second week. I'm thinking that 4.6M by the end of next week is a safe bet. From there, it needs 57,200 per week, which should be easy.

EDIT: I'm dumb. Forget it.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Much depends upon how much new upcoming titles will be able to keep the momentum going - aside from the long legs of MK7, SML3D and MH3G - Love plus and Kingdom hearts 3D being perhaps the potentially biggest hits in Q1 2012.

 

[frankie_baby]

Much depends upon how much new upcoming titles will be able to keep the momentum going - aside from the long legs of MK7, SML3D and MH3G - Love plus and Kingdom hearts 3D being perhaps the potentially biggest hits in Q1 2012.

Plus resident evil

 

[Kenka]

Some people just don't get it. Vita is competing with IOS/Android!!!

They have deliver games, music, video and I expect the Vita to have other downloadable apps sooner or later.

If the biggest treat to Nintendo is ios (according to Iwata), imagine how much more exposed the Vita is.

That's why we wondered what kind of SWOT analysis SCEJ came with when they tossed the idea of making the Vita. Those product managers must have been crazy/bold/optimistic/under pressure to come up with the device that is on the market now.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

Which game went gold so I know to boycott this fool?

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Plus resident evil

To be honest I'm not expecting Resident evil: revelations to do big numbers in Japan, it's a game that is more appealling to Western market and it's where it is supposed to be a big hit.

 

[RPGamer92]

To be honest I'm not expecting Resident evil: revelations to do big numbers in Japan, it's a game that is more appealing to Western market.

I think it could be big considering it's a full-length RE game and not a spin-of.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I think it could be big considering it's a full-length RE game and not a spin-of.

As far as I recall - please correct me if I'm wrong - all previous main series most recent iterations - Rebirth, Zero, RE4, RE5 - did not perform spectacularly in Japan, the biggest sales were in the West.

Oddly enough, I gather the two Umbrella chronicles shooting-gun games fared quite well in Japan, IIRC.

 

[frankie_baby]

To be honest I'm not expecting Resident evil: revelations to do big numbers in Japan, it's a game that is more appealling to Western market and it's where it is supposed to be a big hit.

I don't expect spectacular numbers but it should do fairly solidly, about 150k week 1 and seeing as how resi games can be quite leggy maybe 300k when all is said and done, don't think it'll do that well in America thanks to capcoms stupid price decision though it should do well in Europe

 

[manueldelalas]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

Genius Sonority Head Worried About Consumer Game Market
Maker of Pokemon spinoffs does not see need for Vita, disappointed that 3DS did not reach five million.

Manabu Yamana is the head of Genius Sonority, maker of many fine Pokemon spinoff games. Yamana appears to be concerned about the consumer games market.

PlayStation Vita slowed to 72,000 units the week of Christmas, Yamana noted in a Tweet. 3DS heated things up with 482,000 units. However, he feels that even the 3DS numbers aren't enough. "It was an end of the year that made me feel once again that we're not in the era where you can survive only on consumer games."

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

For the 3DS, Yamana expressed concern that the system did not reach five million (it crossed four million last week). "Imagining the future that this present suggests, it looks like there will be a lot to think about over New Years."

Actually, Yamana may not have time to think over New Years, as he also Tweeted that his current game is close to going gold.

The most amazing thing about this is that now we know Genius Sonority still exists...

 

[BurntPork]

The most amazing thing about this is that now we know Genius Sonority still exists...

They just made that Pokemon typing game.

Not sure if they'll be lucky enough to make more Pokemon games after this...

 

[Shiggy]

The most amazing thing about this is that now we know Genius Sonority still exists...

They are half-dead since their huge Wii RPG was canned and they lost 75% of their workforce (60 employees). Since then they are facing irrelevance with cheap projects such as Pokemon Typing, Classic Book Collection, or Disney's Tinkerbell.

 

[UncleSporky]

Something I've been genuinely curious about that I haven't seen talked about much...

The 3DS is trending above or at the DS level in Japan. People talk like this is a good thing, and it probably is, but why isn't this something you'd expect to be doing even better?

Shouldn't the market have grown enough since the DS's launch that 3DS would be selling more? Wasn't there enough consumer confidence in the DS that you'd naturally expect the 3DS to be doing better, all things considered?

I'm not 3DS bashing, believe me. Just a thing I wonder about.

It comes back to whether anyone should be worried that phones have eaten into the market so much that the sequel to much-lauded hardware only does as well as its predecessor...or if that's really just business as usual.

 

[frankie_baby]

Something I've been genuinely curious about that I haven't seen talked about much...

The 3DS is trending above or at the DS level in Japan. People talk like this is a good thing, and it probably is, but why isn't this something you'd expect to be doing even better?

Shouldn't the market have grown enough since the DS's launch that 3DS would be selling more? Wasn't there enough consumer confidence in the DS that you'd naturally expect the 3DS to be doing better, all things considered?

I'm not 3DS bashing, believe me. Just a thing I wonder about.

It comes back to whether anyone should be worried that phones have eaten into the market so much that the sequel to much-lauded hardware only does as well as its predecessor...or if that's really just business as usual.

But it is trending above the ds so people are buying it faster so I don't quite get your point

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

They are half-dead since their huge Wii RPG was canned and they lost 75% of their workforce (60 employees).

Was this RPG Nintendo published or someone else? I still don't understand why SE didn't hire them for a DQ Swords sequel as soon as Motion Plus was announced.

 

[ElFly]

But it is trending above the ds so people are buying it faster so I don't quite get your point

I think the point is that:

-the market should have grown more.
-The 3DS should have the PSP and DS market for itself.

Can't be bothered to check if it sells as well as the PSP and DS together did at some random point of their lives (maybe launch aligned?) but I can see the argument having some validity.

 

[frankie_baby]

Was this RPG Nintendo published or someone else? I still don't understand why SE didn't hire them for a DQ Swords sequel as soon as Motion Plus was announced.

Maybe they did but it was cancelled too?

 

[UncleSporky]

But it is trending above the ds so people are buying it faster so I don't quite get your point

My point is that selling better is not necessarily selling at what you should expect. I guess we have Nintendo's expectations to set the bar, but have they had to dial it back from what they really wanted to see?

I guess here's one metric: how much has each new generation of hardware built on the sales of the previous one?

For example, if we see:

GB = 1 million first year
GBA = 2 million
DS = 4 million
3DS = 4.1 million

It's trending above, sure, but every previous gen doubled the last. I'd call this underperforming, despite doing better than its predecessor. Of course I have no idea how previous handhelds actually sold.

Ermmm... I don't get it

Does this help?

 

[mugurumakensei]

I think the point is that:

-the market should have grown more.
-The 3DS should have the PSP and DS market for itself.

Can't be bothered to check if it sells as well as the PSP and DS together did at some random point of their lives (maybe launch aligned?) but I can see the argument having some validity.

Just because the market grows, it doesnt mean your early adopter crowd is going to grow. Companies would like that, sure. The reality is quite different though.

Edit: stupid cellphone keyboard

 

[BurntPork]

Something I've been genuinely curious about that I haven't seen talked about much...

The 3DS is trending above or at the DS level in Japan. People talk like this is a good thing, and it probably is, but why isn't this something you'd expect to be doing even better?

Shouldn't the market have grown enough since the DS's launch that 3DS would be selling more? Wasn't there enough consumer confidence in the DS that you'd naturally expect the 3DS to be doing better, all things considered?

I'm not 3DS bashing, believe me. Just a thing I wonder about.

It comes back to whether anyone should be worried that phones have eaten into the market so much that the sequel to much-lauded hardware only does as well as its predecessor...or if that's really just business as usual.

3DS has passed DS and Wii's first 52 weeks. GBA is still ahead, but it will be close.

Here's through one year, though there's not much of Vita to see yet.

Seems like growth to me. Unless you're saying that it should have outsold DS's best year or something...

EDIT:

My point is that selling better is not necessarily selling at what you should expect. I guess we have Nintendo's expectations to set the bar, but have they had to dial it back from what they really wanted to see?

I guess here's one metric: how much has each new generation of hardware built on the sales of the previous one?

For example, if we see:

GB = 1 million first year
GBA = 2 million
DS = 4 million
3DS = 4.1 million

It's trending above, sure, but every previous gen doubled the last. I'd call this underperforming, despite doing better than its predecessor. Of course I have no idea how previous handhelds actually sold.



Does this help?

I see, but that's just not how things have ever worked in the video game market. DS sold well below the GBA's first year in all regions, yet look how that turned out.