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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

Except this arrangement significantly post-dates the choice to develop FFVII on Sony's platform. The Western marketing was intended to make the game (and the platform) blow up, not to keep an exclusive on board.
But, it didn't significantly post date it? FFVII's western release was known almost as early as it's announcement for PlayStation was given in early 1996? In fact SCEA/E's big multigame publishing deals were announced that spring and the first game of which (Tobal No.1) even included a FFVII demo and released a full year before the game did. The arrangement was in place early on and publically known.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
26th January i think.

I assume that those Comgnet numbers are alligned with about 1 month before release for all those 3 Tales games?

For each and everyone, 26 days before release.

Since we're here, I'll go deeper

[PSV] Tales of Innocende R - 27pt
[NDS] Tales of Innocence - 86pt / 174pt - 104.317
[3DS] Tales of the Abyss - 73pt / 137pt - 74.173

No, but really. Why Innocence? Namco in this last year has demonstrated such an awesome skill in making money through selling games, even with Tales of coming back to PSX levels, and then, on the same platform.

1) The complete bastardization of the RR brand, with DLC Racer
2) Of all the possible remakes to do...Innocence.

Heck, Symphonia would have been a much better choice...and just the port would have looked better than Innocence R on Vita's OLED screen.

Why, Namco.

And since I've talked about RE before...

[3DS] Resident Evil: Revelations - 54pt
[Wii] Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles - < 39pt / 70 pt - 82.637
[PS3] Resident Evil 5 - 348pt / 663pt - 319.000
[PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition - 57pt / 195pt - 143.339
[3DS] Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D - < 21pt / 52pt - 58.792
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection - 32pt / 89pt - 93.768

Apart from the big exception being RE5, the ratio Comgnet pt / actual thousands sold is almost of 1:1, in some cases it's lower than one, even for Revival Selection. So far, Revelations is tracking far ahead of Mercenaries, Rvival Selection and basically equal to Gold Edition which however was on a much more hardcore oriented console, at the beginning of its rising through the mass audience, four years after launch. In my opinion, the total done by Gold Edition would be good because, considering how much 3DS is doing and it's desired from Japan, it would equal to 200k at least. :p

@Vinnk: :O

You have to ask about
Hyper for next 3DS games, especially RE:R, but also Theatrhythm, Love Plus, KH.
Then, you have to see 3DS and Vita: sales for hardware & software for both of them, availability.
 
No, but really. Why Innocence? Namco in this last year has demonstrated such an awesome skill in making money through selling games, even with Tales of coming back to PSX levels, and then, on the same platform.

1) The complete bastardization of the RR brand, with DLC Racer
2) Of all the possible remakes to do...Innocence.
.
They gambled with RR and failed, but its a pretty shitty franchise that only serves as a console launch filler, so I doubt they're losing any sleep over it.

3DS sells half of PS3's Lifetime sales in a year, while PSV sells half of Wii's YTD in 2 weeks. Who's the winner? lol
 

Kenka

Member
I'm on it. Are there any specific questions?
My request would be to have echoes of software on both Vita and 3DS front. Large releases incluse Gravity Daze, KH, RE, Kid Icarus. Also, it would be nice to see if bundles for selected games such as MGS sell outr rapidly.

Vinnk, it would be so nice to have you again among us ! welcome back :)
 

saichi

Member
finally caught up all the posts. Some random thoughts -

On VITA: The price announced at E3 was good and it made a positive impression. However, the cost for memory card really adds to the price to own the system. At the same time, I think even though Sony is losing some money on VITA hardware per unit, the money they make from memory cards probably cover that. Combined with the common components with phones to lower the cost, Sony just might have the room to reduce the price (although not as big one as 3DS) for VITA within the year and not taking any further loss.

On someone mentioned how Sony always managed to turn things around a bit after a slow start (PSP, PS3): I wonder how many times Sony can afford to do that. PSP was basically saved by MH in Japan while selling decent hardware numbers in other regions. PS3 came back to life after price drop and slim redesign which took place almost 3 years after launch. Can Sony afford to wait that long to do anything about VITA? Would a price drop and redesign help VITA without big third party software in Japan?

On VITA strategy: This is a tough one cause I don't have an answer. I'm not sure if I post this previously but to me, I'm not sure what VITA's position is. After Sony's TGS demo, I was under the impression that VITA, especially the 3G units, is a do-it-all system with social media focus. It also plays games. In that case, VITA is competing with all the phones without any carrier subsidising the cost. Someone also mentioned that VITA might offer cheap $1-$2 games to compete with iOS/Android market and $30 games for the video games market. I'm not sure that's a good strategy either because Sony might lose badly on both market. If Sony wants VITA to be a game playing focus system with added social features, they need to market it better.

On RE:R: it will probably open between 150K-200K and finish with 400-500K.

I still see Vita selling 60-70 million while 3DS sells 85-100 million.

you are suggesting Sony will actually improve the sale ratio from PSP to DS when comparing VITA to 3DS. Basically 3DS will have less than 70% of DS market while VITA would maintain about 90% of PSP market.

I'll put down my prediction for Japan. VITA will track below PSP in the first year and will sell less unit than PS3 in Japan in its lifetime.
 

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
I hate to agree with BurntPork under any circumstance, but I have to agree that unless Nintendo waits 10 years until 4DS, there's no chance 3DS will match what the DS did.

I disagree, however, that it's set in stone Vita will do anywhere near as well as the PSP. But it's early in the gen, so who knows?
 
I hate to agree with BurntPork under any circumstance, but I have to agree that unless Nintendo waits 10 years until 4DS, there's no chance 3DS will match what the DS did.

At this point in the DS's lifetime i doubt anyone would have been predicting it would go on to comfortably sell more than 30 million in Japan alone. I don't think it's likely the 3DS will match it but i think there is a chance.

I disagree, however, that it's set in stone Vita will do anywhere near as well as the PSP. But it's early in the gen, so who knows?

I don't see how that's set in stone at all. The PSPs success was heavily reliant on monster hunter and i think the vita is facing much tougher circumstances than the PSP did.

Again i think it's possible it could do as well as the PSP but i wouldn't be backing it to.
 

cvxfreak

Member
The only way I see 3DS selling 30 million is for the Vita to sell much less than the PSP did, with the 3DS taking a majority of that audience. 3DS already looks on its way with MH secured, but it'll need much more than that.
 

saichi

Member
I hate to agree with BurntPork under any circumstance, but I have to agree that unless Nintendo waits 10 years until 4DS, there's no chance 3DS will match what the DS did.

I disagree, however, that it's set in stone Vita will do anywhere near as well as the PSP. But it's early in the gen, so who knows?

While I don't think 3DS will match the success of DS, I do think the ratio for 3DS:VITA won't improve from DS:pSP. Hence, if 3DS ends up selling 100 millions, VITA would end up below 50 millions.
 
DS lite was much a part of the DS success as software so I think a 3DS redesign would be needed for those DS sale number you people seem to be thinking about
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
The only way I see 3DS selling 30 million is for the Vita to sell much less than the PSP did, with the 3DS taking a majority of that audience. 3DS already looks on its way with MH secured, but it'll need much more than that.

What else would they need? Tons of musou titles? Nippon Ichi ports? More graphic novels involving sex?
 

Michan

Member
DS lite was much a part of the DS success as software so I think a 3DS redesign would be needed for those DS sale number you people seem to be thinking about

DS Lite was just well-timed. DS was already selling gangbusters long before its release (to the point that NA/EU units were being imported back into Japan to cope with demand), which naturally continued after the Lite hit shelves. There isn't really an effective way to quantify the DS Lite's role in the DS' rise to heaven, although it certainly didn't do any harm.
 

BurntPork

Banned
I hate to agree with BurntPork under any circumstance, but I have to agree that unless Nintendo waits 10 years until 4DS, there's no chance 3DS will match what the DS did.

I disagree, however, that it's set in stone Vita will do anywhere near as well as the PSP. But it's early in the gen, so who knows?

My fist hates to agree with your face under any circumstance.

3DS is going to affected by smartphones far more than Vita will, so it's going tolose a bigger chunk of its audience. As for Vita, unless it completely fails I think it'll be more than 50 million.
 
My fist hates to agree with your face under any circumstance.

3DS is going to affected by smartphones far more than Vita will, so it's going tolose a bigger chunk of its audience. As for Vita, unless it completely fails I think it'll be more than 50 million.

How so?
The 3DS has one major thing that mobile devices and the Vita will never have.
Nintendo.
There is only one place to get Nintendo games, and that alone will drive sales for the device.
Until it can be proven that mobile gaming is actually taking sales away from dedicated devices, it won't affect the 3DS at all.
Only the software library will affect it.
 

BurntPork

Banned
How so?
The 3DS has one major thing that mobile devices and the Vita will never have.
Nintendo.
There is only one place to get Nintendo games, and that alone will drive sales for the device.
Until it can be proven that mobile gaming is actually taking sales away from dedicated devices, it won't affect the 3DS at all.
Only the software library will affect it.

The casual audience that the DS appealed to will have more of an overlap. I figured this was obvious to everyone. I mean, even Nintendo realizes it. Why do you think they're agressively going after the PlayStation audience?
 

extralite

Member
3DS is going to affected by smartphones far more than Vita will

I've seen this statement by analysts as well but those are the same people who wanted the Wii to go HD as soon as possible. Some people simply cannot understand the limits of a trend.

Basically the Vita added a lot of stuff from the DS that can also be done on smarthphones. And better graphics of course. They have no innovation of their own to speak of as 3DS also did the movable camera AR first. And even this can be done on smartphones. They have no edge over smartphones and will suffer from the occuring shift towards smartphone gaming, more so than 3DS.

The 3DS added 3D. If the 3DS will be able to recreate the success of the DS and get the advanced audience again it will be by innovative new franchises and the innovation will likely revolve around the 3D. A handheld needs to have something the consumer can't have already on the devices they already own. As no one buys a smartphone for gaming in the first place.

3DS already has this software for core gamers. Now they need something for the advanced audience (I think they already have something with AR gaming but they need more in the way of this sort of software). What does Vita have, even in terms of an outlook? Without compelling core games they will mostly have casual games which they will also make available to Android devices via PSSuite. I'm guessing MH3P will go to Android via PSS and sell a few more millions there. It's more likely and predictable than an HD MH for Vita.

By the time Vita will be cheap enough to appeal to people who might buy a 3DS for AR smartphones will have comparable software. Sony is always behind on these. Move was too late and still has no compelling software. How will this me too strategy convince customers who came to associate this sort of experience with Nintendo?

PS succeeded in stealing the Nintendo audience by being first over the N64, looking more like the next Famicon than the N64, and having cheaper games. Sony will need some of these advantages if they want to turn things around again. Right now they're simply reactive and too expensive.
 

mj1108

Member
On VITA: The price announced at E3 was good and it made a positive impression.

I think a lot of the reason there was such a positive impression of the price was because the 3DS was at the same price. It made the 3DS appear vastly overpriced in comparison.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
The casual audience that the DS appealed to will have more of an overlap. I figured this was obvious to everyone. I mean, even Nintendo realizes it. Why do you think they're agressively going after the PlayStation audience?

Your post infers that they purposely disregarded the Playstation audience last gen.

I do agree that smartphones will take some of the casual market away from Nintendo though. Otherwise you're grasping at straws.
 
He's comparing LTD to YTD that, which is really dumb.
Because it was suppose to be a serious and fair comparison right? Idiot.

Your post infers that they purposely disregarded the Playstation audience last gen.

I do agree that smartphones will take some of the casual market away from Nintendo though. Otherwise you're grasping at straws.
It wasn't on purpose, but the lack of power for both their consoles made it happen. The 3DS might not surpass the DS numbers, but it'll do more damage to the Playstation brand than the DS did.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Not until Japanese kids get smartphones

The casual audience that the DS appealed to will have more of an overlap. I figured this was obvious to everyone. I mean, even Nintendo realizes it. Why do you think they're agressively going after the PlayStation audience?
I kind of feel that both of these positions are right.

A major advantage the 3DS has is that it's affordable for parents and kid friendly, which means that it can include an age band (6-14 especially) which likely lacks a smartphone, and also have better games for that audience.

On the other hand, the target audience of the Vita today can very likely afford a smartphone. However, they are also an audience that is less likely to be pleased by smartphone style games as well. The same is true for the PSP audience that is migrating to the 3DS for games like Monster Hunter.

Once we keep going though, while we still gain more core gamers, we also get a very notable percentage of casual gamers that might find a $1-$5 casual game on their phone or tablet give them as much entertainment as Brain Age, Nintendogs, Friend Collection, or Rhythm Heaven. This is an audience where Nintendo will have to try especially hard to prove that their casual oriented games are worth vastly more than what you can find on phones.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
It wasn't on purpose, but the lack of power for both their consoles made it happen. The 3DS might not surpass the DS numbers, but it'll do more damage to the Playstation brand than the DS did.

Exactly. To be honest I'm quite surprised that the original DS never recieved a Monster Hunter spinoff, even if it was just a puzzle game. Crazy.
 

Erethian

Member
Once we keep going though, while we still gain more core gamers, we also get a very notable percentage of casual gamers that might find a $1-$5 casual game on their phone or tablet give them as much entertainment as Brain Age, Nintendogs, Friend Collection, or Rhythm Heaven. This is an audience where Nintendo will have to try especially hard to prove that their casual oriented games are worth vastly more than what you can find on phones.

On the other hand I don't think one can downplay the superior game design of Nintendo in these areas.

Price plays a factor, obviously, but in the end I think it will come down to whether Nintendo can create something that has as compelling a hook as Brain Age had, or Wii Sports. Rather than whether it's on a smartphone, or priced at $1-$5.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
On the other hand I don't think one can downplay the superior game design of Nintendo in these areas.

Price plays a factor, obviously, but in the end I think it will come down to whether Nintendo can create something that has as compelling a hook as Brain Age had, or Wii Sports. Rather than whether it's on a smartphone, or priced at $1-$5.

I feel if we're talking about a situation where someone is playing for 1-2 hours on a train, then it would be very hard for the vast majority of phone games to win this competition.

However, my main question would be for those consumers who are only spending 5-10 minutes at a time.

Someone who bought Brain Age might only do one or two exercises and then put the system away. Can Nintendo make something that is worth the system cost, the game cost, and the "cost" of having to bring the system around for those people versus what is available on smartphones.

Before they still had competition, but these days you can do a lot better than what a cellphone could in the mid to mid-late 2000's.
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
The casual audience that the DS appealed to will have more of an overlap. I figured this was obvious to everyone. I mean, even Nintendo realizes it. Why do you think they're agressively going after the PlayStation audience?
The big problem with your theory is that you are supposing console loyalty when that is a completely irrelevant factor.

The 3DS has most of the exclusives relevant for the PSP audience (Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts), and while Final Fantasy is still a big question mark because even though VITA is getting a full remake of a very popular FF game and a port of the MGS collection, those are not exclusive and are the only major relevant third party games.

You are right in supposing Nintendo went after the PSP market, that's pretty obvious, and you are also right that the smartphone market took a huge bite on the DS audience, most of the casual audience will not buy a dedicated gaming handheld and that market already shrunk (but will not shrink further because of the inability of the phone/tablet market to take the more sophisticated gaming experiences; I think that overall the portable gaming market is growing a lot, but the PSP+DS market shrunk).

The big problem with your VITA prediction is that it has none of the games that made it's predecessor popular and it doesn't have any sort of important 3rd (or even first) party exclusive announced for it that one may think will change the situation. Even, of the important 3rd party games announced, we have only seen a title on a screen, which in my experience is not something secure (Ass Creed 3DS, RE PSP, etc).
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
On the other hand I don't think one can downplay the superior game design of Nintendo in these areas.

Price plays a factor, obviously, but in the end I think it will come down to whether Nintendo can create something that has as compelling a hook as Brain Age had, or Wii Sports. Rather than whether it's on a smartphone, or priced at $1-$5.

Yes, Nintendo can come up with awesome ideas (...and eShop right now is seeing these ideas, with Pushmo and Swap Note). And I'm kind of convinced that the casual attractors are already in the 3DS: the built in games that we all believed would have make people buy it even at 250 $ probably right now are attracting indeed the audience to 3DS
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Looking around at impressions of retailers 3DS>>every other system again. This is typically Sony's week and we'll see if Vita managed to retain its sales.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Unlimited sadness. :(

They're planning pretty fast and frequent price drops, but I still wouldn't expect one to hit until at least the Fall.

They also have a chance of dealing with the content issue by then since they don't have that part of their line-up announced.

That said, I wouldn't expect improvement out of the system for at least 8-9 months given what we know.
 

XPE

Member
That said, I wouldn't expect improvement out of the system for at least 8-9 months given what we know.

8-9 seems a bit optimistic, the 3DS didnt turn around untill 6-7 months after launch and there was alot more software announced for it, like Mario kart, kid icarus and so on, later they announced Mario land and Monster hunter.

Nintendo could afford to drop the price can sony?
 

Erethian

Member
Looking around at impressions of retailers 3DS>>every other system again. This is typically Sony's week and we'll see if Vita managed to retain its sales.

I assume that even then sales generally drop from last week to this week, it's just traditionally less pronounced with Sony systems?
 
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