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[Nirolak]

8-9 seems a bit optimistic, the 3DS didnt turn around untill 6-7 months after launch and there was alot more software announced for it, like Mario kart, kid icarus and so on, later they announced Mario land and Monster hunter.

Nintendo could afford to drop the price can sony?

They built the system with quick price drops in mind.

Eurogamer: The Vita price is cheaper than expected. Was that a deliberate move?

Andrew House: I characterise it as a very strong push from the marketing and publishing arm within the organisation. If we were to build not just a core gamer audience for Vita but to move, I would hope very swiftly, towards more of a mass market proposition, having a strategic, aggressive price was clearly a key part of that equation.

I'm really happy we were able to achieve that. Our engineers have done a stellar job of delivering a great product, but also allowing us to hit a price point we feel is attractive.

The strategy, in essence, is we want phase one to appeal to the core gamer audience, technology and entertainment enthusiasts, hope they validate the experience, but then move more swiftly than with PlayStation Portable into a much broader audience.

Price is important. But a lot of the experiences are designed with connectivity from the ground up. We think that's an absolute essential, particularly for a younger audience. Certainly based on the experience of my own kids, they view connectivity and connected devices as a birthright. That is a key part of the proposition.

Source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-06-09-sonys-andrew-house-interview

It's sharing parts with many of the most popular smartphones toward this goal as opposed to crazy custom parts that drop in price very slowly like Sony normally uses.

The reason I listed 8-9 months was that this is the first time I feel it's reasonable for them to attempt to drop the price since the PowerVR Series 6 will be in more notable use (and thus should be pushing down the price on the previous line) and also the beginning of the time frame where we don't know their games line-up.

The "at least" was a key part here though.

 

[Road]

Unlimited sadness.

2012 is gonna be a repeat of the GBA x PS3 2007 US Olympics (only with regards to the sales numbers). (Credits to the guy who posted the gif in the beginning of the thread.)

That said, I wouldn't expect improvement out of the system for at least 8-9 months given what we know.

And it took the PS3 9 months to start outselling the GBA in the US constantly.

 

[Kenka]

Looking around at impressions of retailers 3DS>>every other system again. This is typically Sony's week and we'll see if Vita managed to retain its sales.

Alright, so nothing new ahead. I hope we get another 350k+ week for 3DS.

 

[Jinfash]

Is there any truth to the continued scarcity of the Vita's WiFi model or is that the new "constrained PS3 shipments"?

 

[Mpl90]

Is there any truth to the scarcity of the Vita's WiFi model or is that the new "constrained PS3 shipments"?

I fear is the new LOW SHIPMENTS WAIT FOR WHEN THERE ARE MORE saga's episode.

 

[test_account]

He's comparing LTD to YTD that, which is really dumb.

I think he used LTD to YTD because it is 2 weeks VS 40 weeks of sales data, so i'd say that was fair enough. But as he said, it wasnt really a serious comparison anyway.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The casual audience that the DS appealed to will have more of an overlap. I figured this was obvious to everyone. I mean, even Nintendo realizes it. Why do you think they're agressively going after the PlayStation audience?

More is better? It's not like they were spurning the "PlayStation audience" with DS, but with more powerful hardware and the massive success of the DS to point to they're in a better position to receive more of that type of support.

I figure there's plenty of overlap for both. PSP was a secondary gaming device to me, but I did like using it for other things like watching videos, reading text, homebrew emulation. Considering a Vita for similar purposes, though, the thing that comes to mind is whether I might not be better off with something like a Kindle Fire instead.

 

[electroplankton]

Is week 52 usually a bit lower than week 1?
IIRC last years week 51 still remains the biggest and week 1 was not so big.

 

[walking fiend]

Is week 52 usually a bit lower than week 1?
IIRC last years week 51 still remains the biggest and week 1 was not so big.

yes, more like week 50 than 51.

 

[Fafalada]

that this is the first time I feel it's reasonable for them to attempt to drop the price since the PowerVR Series 6 will be in more notable use (and thus should be pushing down the price on the previous line)

I don't think that will have any impact on Sony costs (good or bad). They pay license fee for design(which is more likely flat), and the actual-silicon manufactured is not used in anything other then Vita, nor will ever be unless Sony puts it in another device.
And this is under assumption they're outsourcing manufacturing in the first place (I wouldn't know in this case).

 

[Jinfash]

I don't think that will have any impact on Sony costs (good or bad). They pay license fee for design(which is more likely flat), and the actual-silicon manufactured is not used in anything other then Vita, nor will ever be unless Sony puts it in another device.
And this is under assumption they're outsourcing manufacturing in the first place (I wouldn't know in this case).

So the assumption that the manufacturing costs will quickly go down as more products replicating the specs (quad core variations) or flat out best it (series 6 GPUs and next gen ARMs) is wildly inaccurate?

 

[frankie_baby]

So the assumption that the manufacturing costs will quickly go down as more products replicating the specs (quad core variations) or flat out best it (series 6 GPUs and next gen ARMs) is wildly inaccurate?

By my assumption he the actual chip in vita is not used elsewhere it will do nothing to increase production numbers on the chip and therefore the price to Sony won't go down and if vita production is low due to low sales it'll do even more to keep the price up

 

[walking fiend]

So the assumption that the manufacturing costs will quickly go down as more products replicating the specs (quad core variations) or flat out best it (series 6 GPUs and next gen ARMs) is wildly inaccurate?

dunno much, but the only situation which I can think the costs NOT going done, is that the price of new chips doesn't go done because the same chip becomes cheaper, but because new cheap have an inherently cheaper 'design'. AND also it should not be possible to change the design to accommodate with this new change. However, I am pretty sure 360 CPU changed quite a few times since 2005.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I'd expect OLED prices going down would be a lot more useful than chips getting cheaper, but what would I know.

 

[Father_Brain]

They built the system with quick price drops in mind.


Source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-06-09-sonys-andrew-house-interview

It's sharing parts with many of the most popular smartphones toward this goal as opposed to crazy custom parts that drop in price very slowly like Sony normally uses.

Which is a reasonable interpretation of that particular quote, but Jim Ryan's more recent comments about pivoting to target a broader demographic later in 2013 and 2014 may indicate that they're not currently planning to drop the price anytime soon.

Of course, if that's the plan, I doubt they'll be able to stick to it.

 

[Lazy8s]

Yes, the release of newer versions of PowerVR will have little to no effect on the cost of Vita's GPU silicon.

Sony would pay an initial/installment fee of several million to license PowerVR IP, and they would then pay a small fee of a few bucks max per Vita in royalty for every unit they ship.

Some manufacturing savings could be passed on to them by the foundry over time as yields improve and/or newer processes are used (the silicon costs of the GPU block are only a few bucks anyway), and Imagination Technologies could even lower the royalty as volume milestones are reached. However, the GPU cost is minor to begin with, so not much savings would ever be made from there.

Power consumption and heat are what limit how high in performance a mobile GPU can be, not its price.

Bigger cost savings on Vita over time would come from manufacturing efficiencies of the display, memory, and battery.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I feel if we're talking about a situation where someone is playing for 1-2 hours on a train, then it would be very hard for the vast majority of phone games to win this competition.

However, my main question would be for those consumers who are only spending 5-10 minutes at a time.

Someone who bought Brain Age might only do one or two exercises and then put the system away. Can Nintendo make something that is worth the system cost, the game cost, and the "cost" of having to bring the system around for those people versus what is available on smartphones.

Before they still had competition, but these days you can do a lot better than what a cellphone could in the mid to mid-late 2000's.

I think you're underselling Japan's mobile market historically a bit here. While the west hasn't had anything comparable until the recent meteoric rise of iOS/Android, Japan's had a huge and advanced mobile games industry going for well over a decade now. Keitai killing Game Boy was an eerily familiar media/analyst favorite talking point in the eary 2000s, with nearly identical structural and cultural advantages we see today for phones versus handhelds.

If anything I think Japan's history sets a nice precedent that so long as dedicated handhelds provide a superior premium experience (which GBC, GBA, DS and PSP all did against the keitai onslaught) then there's going to be a marketplace for them in Japan. We'll see about the west...

 

[Mpl90]

Normally, week 51 is the peak of the Holiday, with week 52 lower and week 1 even lower. But usually week 1 sees increases for Sony consoles. So it should be interesting to see if 3DS, which is catering to usual Sony audience also will see a lowest decrease than the other Nintendo consoles.

 

[yankeeforever2]

How the fuck did Mario Kart DS sneak into the top 50, no way 3DS owners are buying it

 

[Mpl90]

How the fuck did Mario Kart DS sneak into the top 50, no way 3DS owners are buying it

People not interested in 3DS, but want to buy a DS with Mario Kart DS. However, seeing still it in top 50, after 6 years its release is just unbelievable.

 

[yankeeforever2]

People not interested in 3DS, but want to buy a DS with Mario Kart DS. However, seeing still it in top 50, after 6 years its release is just unbelievable.

Stuff like Kirby, Pokemon and other DS games makes sense to see a increase because of the lack of 3DS games for those franchises. A huge selling DS game who's sequel just came out is pretty shocking.

 

[Mpl90]

Comgnet Preorders Daily Ranking

Updated: Jan 02, 2012 (Mon) 08:00
The Index closed at the time of January 1, 2012

[PS3] Armored Core 5 - 185Pt
[PS3] OG Super Robot Taisen 2 - 106pt
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIIIヴェルサス - 100Pt
[PSP] I & II Machine God tier Super Robot Taisen OG Saga - 74pt
[3DS] Resident Evil Revelations - 56pt
[PSP] BOX ☆ limitation agreement portable Madoka Magika Maho Shojo (Full, Limited Edition) - 40pt
[PSP] I pretend Limited quantities Ta ぽ little friend "BOX very unfortunate girl × × game = shame" - 37pt
[3DS] NEW Love Plus - 33pt
[Xbox360] Armored Core: five - 31Pt
[PSP] Tales of Heroes Limited Edition Premium Twin BOX Brave - 30pt
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid Rising - 30pt
[PSV] Tales of Innocence R - 29pt
[PS3] Musou One Piece (Limited Edition) - 26pt
[PS3] Binary Domain - 23pt
[PS3] TRESURE BOX One Piece Warriors - 21pt
[PSP] Fotokano - 19pt
[3DS] Puchipuku pack and Future Stars Project mirai Hatsune Miku - 15pt
[PSP] Tales of Brave Twin Heroes - 13pt
[PSP] cut through light and shadow adding 3 Sengoku Hime (Limited Edition) - 12pt
[PSP] II REVELATION OF EVIL GOD God-tier machines Super Robot Taisen OG Saga - 11pt

[3DS] Resident Evil: Revelations - 56pt
[PS3] Resident Evil 5 - 372pt / 663pt - 319.000
[PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition - 62pt / 195pt - 143.339
[3DS] Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D - lower than 21pt / 52pt - 58.792
[PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection - 32pt / 89pt - 93.768
[Wii] Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles - lower than 37pt / 70pt - 82.637

So, excluding RE5 which seems to be sort of a conjunction between low install base after 3 years on the market (2009) and massive concentration at the time of the "core" audience (so, insanely high pt, but much lower thousands sold than preorders ), and especially seeing the pattern followed by the newest RE game released ( ratio Comgnet pt / thousands sold much nearer to 1, and even lower than one in the two most recent cases ), Revelations has basically 3x the pt of Mercenaries, considering Mercenaries popped up in the chart some days later and almost 2x Revival Selection and Umbrella Chronicles.

If it maintains this pattern (especially if it accelerate a bit ), it could end with 190-200pt, for a 200k First week, which could even become 250-260k due to the fact that there will still be hardware sales, and high hardware sales mean high software sales ( Gundam demonstrated this, since it had only 58pt, but its first week is almost 100k )

After all this RE's talk, the Namco's embarassment corner

[PSV] Tales of Innocence R - 29pt
[NDS] Tales of Innocence - 96pt / 174pt - 104.317
[3DS] Tales of the Abyss - 75pt / 137pt - 74.173

...and the Namco's celebration one

[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 47pt
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors 7 - 32pt
[PS3] Fist of the North Star Musou - 49pt

And now, the real show!

Updated: Jan 02, 2012 (Mon) 08:00
Index aggregation period: 1st January 2012 ~ December 26, 2011

[3DS] Monster 3G (Limited Edition) - 255pt
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 224pt
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 202pt
[PS3] OROCHI 2 Warriors (Limited Edition) - 184pt
[3DS] 3D Super Mario Land - 128pt
[Wii] JUST DANCE Wii (Just Dance Wii) - 84pt
[Wii] Kirby of the Stars Wii - 68pt
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd PSP the Best - 55pt
[1993] Lucky Year 2012 - 49pt
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven GO Shine - 47pt
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (dub version) - 46pt
[Wii] GO VACATION (Go Travel) - 42pt
[Wii] Family fishing is your computer Bundle - 42pt
[PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2011 Ketteiban - 42pt
[PSP] Frontier Gate - 42pt
[Wii] Rhythm Heaven for Everyone - 39pt
[Wii] Mario Kart Wii - 39Pt
[PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam VS Extreme - 39pt
[NDS] peaked witch hat and stylish - 37pt
[3DS] SD Gundam GGENERATION 3D - 34pt

...Ok, the first is... WHAT?!? Even...even outdoing Mario Kart? O_O
Last week, it did 358pt, for reference.

Considering Famitsu has it 80k behind how MC was tracking it for the second week, we probably won't see another Famitsu news about MH3G being a million seller, but probably it will crash the million mark for Media Create

Unfortunately, there's no trace of what FFXIII did in its third week anywhere.

Just under Lucky Year 2012 (...wut ), there's Shine, which dropped again less than half than what it did last week.

[3DS] SD Gundam G Generation 3D - 137pt --- 34pt
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation World - 677pt --- 180pt

A similar sharp drop.

 

[Kenka]

What the funk @ FF, its drop rate this week may have been low ?? It already showed way better legs than other entries in the series last week and this pattern could potentially be reinforced with what we can infer from those numbers ?

I know for sure that Comgnet is not a reliable source to extrapolate sales figures but this is already ringing a bell in my sales-age lover stomach.

 

[P90]

The only way I see 3DS selling 30 million is for the Vita to sell much less than the PSP did, with the 3DS taking a majority of that audience. 3DS already looks on its way with MH secured, but it'll need much more than that.

Pokemon. Game. Set. Match. Trump card. Smartphone game software revenue killer. Sony handheld killer. <insert domination moniker here>

 

[DCharlie]

Is there any truth to the continued scarcity of the Vita's WiFi model or is that the new "constrained PS3 shipments"?

There are less Wifi models than 3G, but there's plenty out there. Some places have started putting up warning signs saying they are low on Vita stocks -in general- but yeah - if you can't find a Wifi model, you aren't looking very far.

Monster Hunter - lots of places shaving the price down a bit so anyone who was umm-ing and ah-ing is almost certain to jump in. Sales have a LONG LONG way to go yet, got this one hilariously wrong - but thrilled for it to be doing so well.

 

[cvxfreak]

^lol at your avatar

 

[Nirolak]

Sorry, I didn't realize they were foundryless, at which point yeah, any advances they're making aren't necessarily going to go into making their previous products cheaper.

 

[Nirolak]

I think you're underselling Japan's mobile market historically a bit here. While the west hasn't had anything comparable until the recent meteoric rise of iOS/Android, Japan's had a huge and advanced mobile games industry going for well over a decade now. Keitai killing Game Boy was an eerily familiar media/analyst favorite talking point in the eary 2000s, with nearly identical structural and cultural advantages we see today for phones versus handhelds.

If anything I think Japan's history sets a nice precedent that so long as dedicated handhelds provide a superior premium experience (which GBC, GBA, DS and PSP all did against the keitai onslaught) then there's going to be a marketplace for them in Japan. We'll see about the west...

Right, I do think there is a serious market for dedicated handhelds in the region.

I mean, one glance at the OP states that much.

The only remaining threat I see to Nintendo though is people who only view gaming as a timewaster instead of a hobby or worthwhile extended time activity.

I'm not even saying they will lose there, just that it is the main unproven field I see when it comes to matching or surpassing the DS's LTD sales in Japan.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Blarg.

 

[allan-bh]

Why Week 1 is big in Japan?

 

[idlewild_]

Why Week 1 is big in Japan?

New Year's money

 

[Kandinsky]

^lol at your avatar

It's perfect lol.

 

[donny2112]

Normally, week 51 is the peak of the Holiday, with week 52 lower and week 1 even lower. But usually week 1 sees increases for Sony consoles.

Where did you get the idea that Week 1 was usually lower than the last week of the year? It seems to usually be Week around Christmas > 1st week of year > week between the two to me.

Edit:
For this reason

New Year's money

Usually results in Nintendo games seeing a larger than average boost, as well.

 

[Alrus]

Where did you get the idea that Week 1 was usually lower than the last week of the year? It seems to usually be Week around Christmas > 1st week of year > week between the two to me.

Well Week 52 2010 was bigger than week 01 2011.

 

[Erethian]

Well Week 52 2010 was bigger than week 01 2011.

It's traditionally been bigger, though. For example.

Wii Week 52, 2007: 152,209
Wii Week 01, 2008: 207,797

DS Lite Week 52, 2007: 218,876
DS Lite Week 01, 2008: 266,568

DS had the same sales pattern in 06/07.

 

[donny2112]

DS had the same sales pattern in 06/07.

Yeah, it's kind of hard to see, but the end of the year usually looks like a canyon with the Christmas week and New Year's week as bookends.

 

[AMoreHumbleSquare]

Comgnet Sales Ranking

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 202pt

Just for fun:
2nd week 300 pt = 118,000
thus
3rd week 202 pt = 79,000?

 

[Road]

Unfortunately, there's no trace of what FFXIII did in its third week anywhere.

http://ameblo.jp/simamido/entry-10429069891.html

Have fun.

 

[Mpl90]

Where did you get the idea that Week 1 was usually lower than the last week of the year? It seems to usually be Week around Christmas > 1st week of year > week between the two to me.

Edit:
For this reason


Usually results in Nintendo games seeing a larger than average boost, as well.

Sorry, probably I just didn't remember well. My bad.

@Road: Thank you!

@lunchwithyouzo: You're right, but we must also count how much portables obtained to substitute home consoles last gen as a factor of their strength against the smartphones.

 

[bgassassin]

Unlimited sadness.

Is that a new Square game?

 

[demosthenes]

Is that a new Square game?

:lol

 

[JJConrad]

It's traditionally been bigger, though. For example.

Wii Week 52, 2007: 152,209
Wii Week 01, 2008: 207,797

DS Lite Week 52, 2007: 218,876
DS Lite Week 01, 2008: 266,568

DS had the same sales pattern in 06/07.

January 2nd seems to be a very big day for sales.

When Jan. 2 fell in Week 52 of '04 and it beat Week 1 of '05. And when Jan. 2 was in Week 53 of '09 it beat Week 1 of '10.

 

[Takao]

Sony needs to make an Over My Dead Body Portable 2 for Vita.

 

[electroplankton]

I expect to see good performance of games like Inazuma Eleven during Week 1, since they're targeted towards kids, those who got the money.

 

[spwolf]

However, the GPU cost is minor to begin with, so not much savings would ever be made from there.

cpu/gpu costs are probably their 2nd biggest expense on Vita, after display, i would say easily easiest way for them to cut cost on it.

 

[LOCK]

I know I'm late to the party, but great 3DS numbers.

Kinda disappointed in software. So I hope the next two weeks are software friendly.

 

[Fafalada]

So the assumption that the manufacturing costs will quickly go down as more products replicating the specs (quad core variations) or flat out best it (series 6 GPUs and next gen ARMs) is wildly inaccurate?

Cost reduction is factored into device initial design, so of course it will happen.
I'm just saying it's not tied to PVR designing new stuff, and bleedover from other products is more subject to sharing foundries then having similar chip-design (if it was the same chip, then it's a different story).
Do we even know who manufactures Vita parts? (Other then what was speculated of Samsung's involvement).

 

[Chris1964]

Stuff like Kirby, Pokemon and other DS games makes sense to see a increase because of the lack of 3DS games for those franchises. A huge selling DS game who's sequel just came out is pretty shocking.

It's not. It happens all the time with sequels.

 

[electroplankton]

It's not. It happens all the time with sequels.

Also Mario Kart Wii grew a lot!

 

[Mpl90]

Also Mario Kart Wii grew a lot!

Eh, 43k 3 years almost 4 years after its debut. Legs, legs and legs. And it seems MK7 is followings his father's steps


[NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 224.411 / 3.837.894 / 6,05% 08/12/05
[SFC] Super Mario Kart (Nintendo) - / 3.820.000 27/08/92
[WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 608.147 / 3.298.179 / 18,44% 10/04/08
[N64] Mario Kart 64 (Nintendo) - 160.363 / 1.711.661 / 9,37% 14/12/96
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 451.932 / 1.082.391 / 41,75% 01/12/11
[GBA] Mario Kart: Super Circuit (Nintendo) - 261.797 / 938.175 / 27,90% 21/07/01
[GCN] Mario Kart: Double Dash!! (Nintendo) - 179.230 / 825.894 / 21,70% 07/11/03