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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2011 {2011.12.26 - 2012.01.01}

Opiate

Member
Its the 5th best selling game of the year. Am I saying that the entire Japanese gaming industry is dying? Your question is not a logical conclusion from what he was saying. You've jump from the PS3 to the entirety of the console market, when there shouldn't a be connection.

While I replied to a specific post of his, this was a theme he was developing over several posts, not just on this page. Consider this post by him:

toth said:
Looking at those numbers, FF13-2's numbers suddenly make more sense. When it and ToX as the highest selling PS3 games over the whole year and the only big sellers being portable, you have to wonder if the 'omg sales' issue of the game are more akin to the dwindling console gamer market in Japan.

Or this one:

toth said:
Lol. How is the biggest PS3 seller this year a bomb? Looks more like the console market is getting hit hard in Japan.

He's clearly talking about the console market in general, not just the PS3.
 
Sony could potentially see the PSV rebound, but only if they have an actual strategy in place. Nothing really seems clear yet what they're going to do about 2012 or the mediocre sales, but the same could have been said about Nintendo before their fall pre-TGS conference.

I don't think that's really true. 3DS sales had already rebounded (albeit not to the current degree) worldwide after the price cut, and even before the price cut, we already knew about titles like RE:R, KH3D, SM3DL, and MK7, the latter two in particular of which have vastly more proven sales (and system-selling) power than anything announced for Vita to date.

But I agree with the broader point, primarily when it comes to software. If Sony actually had a well-thought-out software strategy in place before Vita launched, then it should bear fruit in the coming months (though it was still an utterly bizarre decision not to announce more of that support pre-launch, particularly at the awful TGS conference). If they didn't, well, it won't be any easier to secure that support now that the system has launched and is selling quite poorly.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Its the 5th best selling game of the year. Am I saying that the entire Japanese gaming industry is dying? Your question is not a logical conclusion from what he was saying. You've jump from the PS3 to the entirety of the console market, when there shouldn't a be connection.

As for your question... Generational reset makes it impossible to say. The console market was heavily divided this generation into two distinct groups. The PS3 is not the PS2, the game suffered because of it. If a next-gen console can unify both groups again, a franchise like Final Fantasy can flourish.

Final Fantasy was declining even when it was on the PS2.
 

Jonnyram

Member
You guys have gone way too far with the "bomb" calling.
How can a game which is still on sale at full price, and still charting, possibly be called a bomb?

How about we say a game has bombed when retailers are selling new copies at 50% off RRP in order to clear stock? Wouldn't that make more sense?

Selling below expectations =/= bomb.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
You guys have gone way too far with the "bomb" calling.
How can a game which is still on sale at full price, and still charting, possibly be called a bomb?

How about we say a game has bombed when retailers are selling new copies at 50% off RRP in order to clear stock? Wouldn't that make more sense?

Selling below expectations =/= bomb.

Would you consider Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 opening at 1 million copies in NPD a bomb, even if all of those were full price?
 

Jonnyram

Member
Would you consider Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 opening at 1 million copies in NPD a bomb, even if all of those were full price?
Anything that sells a million copies cannot possibly considered a bomb. Even if it was expected to sell 3 million, it's still sold a shitload and garnered a substantial audience.
I think you guys are losing sight of what a bomb really is. Ni no Kuni PS3 — now that was a bomb.
 

Opiate

Member
Anything that sells a million copies cannot possibly considered a bomb. Even if it was expected to sell 3 million, it's still sold a shitload and garnered a substantial audience.
I think you guys are losing sight of what a bomb really is. Ni no Kuni PS3 — now that was a bomb.

I think most reasonable people will disagree with you. If MW4 sells 1 million copies, I will call it a bomb. Not just a bomb; a huge, disastrous bomb.

I think most reasonable analysts would argue that "bombing" is relative to context.
 

cvxfreak

Member
In amongst all the VITA DOOM narratives, the PSP sales are an -absolute- victory for Sony.

They are beneficial to Sony in the short term, but the problem with late generation sales is that it's not likely those buyers can become a reliable source of revenue down the line. As new PSP releases decrease, they'll be pushed into buying used releases or budget games. This wouldn't be a problem if Vita sales were high enough (and higher than PSP), but it appears that PSP sales are still high because of the Vita's slow start.

Someone who buys a Vita today is more likely to be buying new games 3-4 years from now than someone buying a PSP now.

So, I'm not quite sure I agree with PSP sales being an absolute, unconditional victory from a longterm perspective.
 

Jonnyram

Member
I think most reasonable analysts would argue that "bombing" is relative to context.
I think that most reasonable analysts would not use the word "bomb" because it is a sensationalist word used to cause alarm, and that's the long and short of it. Why are people on forums so obsessed with over-sensationalising everything? It kills meaningful discussion. Sure 1 million sold when 3 million are shipped is a bad performance. It would be called a failure, a flop, whatever, but screaming BOMBA when a game has sold 70% of its shipment is ridiculous. Nirolak's example was hypothetical — we are discussing real figures here. Did anyone expect FFXIII-2 to sell 2 million? Did anyone expect FF Type-0 to sell 1 million?
 
Anything that sells a million copies cannot possibly considered a bomb. Even if it was expected to sell 3 million, it's still sold a shitload and garnered a substantial audience.
I think you guys are losing sight of what a bomb really is. Ni no Kuni PS3 — now that was a bomb.

So a $100 million game isn't a bomb if it sells a million copies? Bomb is historically a term used to determine financial failure.

Some random, irrelevant benchmark like 1 million unit sales taken alone has nothing to do with a game bombing or not.
 

Labadal

Member
I think that most reasonable analysts would not use the word "bomb" because it is a sensationalist word used to cause alarm, and that's the long and short of it. Why are people on forums so obsessed with over-sensationalising everything? It kills meaningful discussion. Sure 1 million sold when 3 million are shipped is a bad performance. It would be called a failure, a flop, whatever, but screaming BOMBA when a game has sold 70% of its shipment is ridiculous. Nirolak's example was hypothetical — we are discussing real figures here. Did anyone expect FFXIII-2 to sell 2 million? Did anyone expect FF Type-0 to sell 1 million?

Well, I do think S-E said they were expecting close to 1 million for Type-0. or that's what I remember reading, I could be wrong.
 

Opiate

Member
I think that most reasonable analysts would not use the word "bomb" because it is a sensationalist word used to cause alarm, and that's the long and short of it.Why are people on forums so obsessed with over-sensationalising everything?

Do you want to call it "hugely and dramatically under performing?" Because that's fine. "Bombing" is just the word often chosen, and it's shorter to type. I'm more than happy to do that because I agree, the phrase "bomba" can be provocative.

Sure 1 million sold when 3 million are shipped is a bad performance. It would be called a failure, a flop, whatever, but screaming BOMBA when a game has sold 70% of its shipment is ridiculous. Nirolak's example was hypothetical — we are discussing real figures here. Did anyone expect FFXIII-2 to sell 2 million? Did anyone expect FF Type-0 to sell 1 million?

There's also more context than simply the first shipped figure. For example, let's say I start building a game today, and expect to sell 3 million copies of that game. However, as the game nears release and press begins to build, it becomes clear that interest is much lower than I had initially hoped and I can only ship 1 million copies. It then sells 800,000 copies.

In this case, the game dramatically underperformed. The final expectations -- in the form of copies sold to retailers -- is already dramatically below what I had initially hoped, even before considering that my initial shipment didn't sell through.

One can reasonably assume that Square did not expect FFXIII-2 to sell 50% less than any major FF in history, whether that be a full mainline title or a sequel.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Anything that sells a million copies cannot possibly considered a bomb. Even if it was expected to sell 3 million, it's still sold a shitload and garnered a substantial audience.
I think you guys are losing sight of what a bomb really is. Ni no Kuni PS3 — now that was a bomb.

No, that's definitely a bomb. If the game doesnt make any money, or in fact loses money, I see that as a bomb.

Consider Call of Duty's budget though.

Los Angeles Times said:
Call of Duty cost $40 million to $50 million to produce, people close to the project said, about as much as a mid-size film. Including marketing expenses and the cost of producing and distributing discs, the launch budget was $200 million, on par with a summer popcorn movie -- and extremely high for a video game.
Source: http://articles.latimes.com/2009/nov/18/business/fi-ct-duty18

A million copies in NPD might actually be problematic for a game of this cost.

Final Fantasy XIII-2 will probably make money. However, if it falls notably short of expectations, it can have a very large negative impact on the overall profitability of Square Enix, which is what I would consider a bomb.

It's a bomb [relative to expectations].

Opiate said:
Do you want to call it "hugely and dramatically under performing?"
Yes, if people would prefer that I refer to it as that from now on, I'm fine with it.
 
Final Fantasy XIII-2 will probably make money. However, if it falls notably short of expectations, it can have a very large negative impact on the overall profitability of Square Enix, which is what I would consider a bomb.

It's a bomb [relative to expectations].

Additionally, it could be argued that "bomb" or "massively underperforming" would be partially from context, but more specifically to contrast. We went from Final Fantasy being the brand to be ten years ago, to now, where each game's sales are a significantly small fraction of the last.

Just because we expect a huge drop doesn't mean that drop isn't a gigantic kick in the teeth. Contrast is contrast. Losing a third of your audience is a pretty big deal, all things considered.

And I associate "Bomba" with massive price drops, solely due to Wario64's threads.
 
Consider Call of Duty's budget though.


Source: http://articles.latimes.com/2009/nov/18/business/fi-ct-duty18

A million copies in NPD might actually be problematic for a game of this cost.

Final Fantasy XIII-2 will probably make money. However, if it falls notably short of expectations, it can have a very large negative impact on the overall profitability of Square Enix, which is what I would consider a bomb.

Things like that are difficut to gauge because its not immediately visible and we dont really have access to all the information.

As a result, I prefer to use profit from the game as a measure of if a game is a bomb. I don't know the details on COD, but if 1 mill is not enough to at least break even then thats a bomb in my book.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
They are beneficial to Sony in the short term, but the problem with late generation sales is that it's not likely those buyers can become a reliable source of revenue down the line. As new PSP releases decrease, they'll be pushed into buying used releases or budget games. This wouldn't be a problem if Vita sales were high enough (and higher than PSP), but it appears that PSP sales are still high because of the Vita's slow start.

Someone who buys a Vita today is more likely to be buying new games 3-4 years from now than someone buying a PSP now.

So, I'm not quite sure I agree with PSP sales being an absolute, unconditional victory from a longterm perspective.

The Vita is in it's launch phase with a MAXIMUM sell through of 500k over the Xmas period - every single PSP sale is a unit sold at pretty much optimum profit. It's an unconditional a victory as Sony or anyone could possibly cook up for the PSP/vita scenario. This isn't about generating a constant super revenue stream, it's about clearing out stock of a system that's on it's way out at , i suspect, substantial profit margins.

Buying a PSP now does not preclude anyone from buying a Vita - in all likelihood people have chosen PSP -over- Vita at this point in time for specific reasons _at this time_. Also - everyone buying a PSP is NOT automatically a Vita sale lost. Looking at the figure the MAXIMUM extra that Sony may have got was an extra 60-80k depending on who you source.

In that scenario - every PSP Sold by sony over the xmas period is more likely someone who wasn't ready for the Vita (library, price concerns, who knows) but who opted to get a PSP are all extra high profit margin sales.

This is Xmas period remember - the 'wait for a Vita' wouldn't be on the table for most. Every PSP sale for Sony is more money in the bank and still a chance to convert those people to Vita.

Someone who buys a Vita today is more likely to be buying new games 3-4 years from now than someone buying a PSP now.

Completely different sets of users - there's also something to be said for the strategy of staggering your roll out so you can work on reducing component cost etc. Also - maybe even the new PSP owners will say "you know what - i might want to upgrade in the future - i'll buy these games online!" ;)
 

Dalthien

Member
there's also something to be said for the strategy of staggering your roll out so you can work on reducing component cost etc.
No, there's really not much to be said for that strategy. If Sony's strategy is to keep stocks limited for much of the year in order to wait until costs drop before actually going full bore, then that means that they either released the system too soon (and should have waited until they could release the system at the reduced price), or they did a lousy job designing their system because it didn't come in at the appropriate cost.

A period of prolonged weak sales will have ramifications. Just recently we watched the Gamecube hemorrhage 3rd-party support due to poor sales. The PS3s lousy start forced a migration of previously Sony-exclusive brands to the 360. And just a few months ago Iwata was discussing how the weak 3DS start had caused several 3rd-party partners (and retailer support as well) to question their ongoing support of the platform unless things turned around quickly. He specifically mentioned that as a factor in the massive steps taken to right the ship in a hurry.

The Vita is no different. If Sony's strategy is really to keep sales low until they can get component prices down, then they'll be dealing with the same 3rd-party partners reevaluating their support of the platform.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
No, there's really not much to be said for that strategy. If Sony's strategy is to keep stocks limited for much of the year in order to wait until costs drop before actually going full bore, then that means that they either released the system too soon (and should have waited until they could release the system at the reduced price), or they did a lousy job designing their system because it didn't come in at the appropriate cost.

A period of prolonged weak sales will have ramifications. Just recently we watched the Gamecube hemorrhage 3rd-party support due to poor sales. The PS3s lousy start forced a migration of previously Sony-exclusive brands to the 360. And just a few months ago Iwata was discussing how the weak 3DS start had caused several 3rd-party partners (and retailer support as well) to question their ongoing support of the platform unless things turned around quickly. He specifically mentioned that as a factor in the massive steps taken to right the ship in a hurry.

The Vita is no different. If Sony's strategy is really to keep sales low until they can get component prices down, then they'll be dealing with the same 3rd-party partners reevaluating their support of the platform.

you can stagger it with -still- significant numbers and play the "stock issues" card -and- build hype and demand on the way. Well, you can... if um... you are above a certain sales level.

I don't think Sony's plan -is- to keep stocks specifically low - rather they'll hit the there or there abouts demand that's out there - or just below it to try and build some "sold out" momentum. Point being the vast majority of more profitable sales are going to come further down the line
 

Dalthien

Member
you can stagger it with -still- significant numbers and play the "stock issues" card -and- build hype and demand on the way. Well, you can... if um... you are above a certain sales level.

I don't think Sony's plan -is- to keep stocks specifically low - rather they'll hit the there or there abouts demand that's out there - or just below it to try and build some "sold out" momentum. Point being the vast majority of more profitable sales are going to come further down the line

I don't think that's their strategy either (although their overshipping of the 3G units at the expense of lost Wi-Fi sales does raise the eyebrows just a tad), but you specifically mentioned the staggering strategy in reference to Sony happily pushing PSPs instead of Vitas.

Pushing PSP sales in addition to maximizing Vita sales - beautiful strategy. Pushing PSP sales at the expense of Vita sales - horrible short-term focus.
 

cvxfreak

Member
The Vita is in it's launch phase with a MAXIMUM sell through of 500k over the Xmas period - every single PSP sale is a unit sold at pretty much optimum profit. It's an unconditional a victory as Sony or anyone could possibly cook up for the PSP/vita scenario. This isn't about generating a constant super revenue stream, it's about clearing out stock of a system that's on it's way out at , i suspect, substantial profit margins.

Buying a PSP now does not preclude anyone from buying a Vita - in all likelihood people have chosen PSP -over- Vita at this point in time for specific reasons _at this time_. Also - everyone buying a PSP is NOT automatically a Vita sale lost. Looking at the figure the MAXIMUM extra that Sony may have got was an extra 60-80k depending on who you source.

In that scenario - every PSP Sold by sony over the xmas period is more likely someone who wasn't ready for the Vita (library, price concerns, who knows) but who opted to get a PSP are all extra high profit margin sales.

This is Xmas period remember - the 'wait for a Vita' wouldn't be on the table for most. Every PSP sale for Sony is more money in the bank and still a chance to convert those people to Vita.

I think you make some good points, but I also disagree with some of your comments. It's profitable for Sony to keep selling PSPs, that much is true. It's also true that PSP sales now don't necessarily remove Vita sales in the future. That wasn't really my main argument anyway.

But it simply does NOT look good for a new platform to be immediately and markedly outsold by a predecessor platform (that happens to be dead in overseas territories). It casts doubt, whether undue or not, onto the new platform. If this keeps up into the spring, who in their right mind would develop a Japan-oriented Vita title over a PSP one (or a 3DS or smartphone one, even)? Having sat in game planning sessions for nearly a year now, this is a legitimate concern for many developers.

I'm not making any suggestions as to what the future holds for PSP and Vita, but if PSP sales continue to be high and Vita sales low, there could be repercussions down the line that will be more damaging to Sony than the PSP optimal profit they get right now. One way or another, Sony really shouldn't wait too long. Nintendo chose to just press "abort" on the original DS, but it will reward them in the future.
 

Truth101

Banned
I think you make some good points, but I also disagree with some of your comments. It's profitable for Sony to keep selling PSPs, that much is true. It's also true that PSP sales now don't necessarily remove Vita sales in the future. That wasn't really my main argument anyway.

But it simply does NOT look good for a new platform to be immediately and markedly outsold by a predecessor platform (that happens to be dead in overseas territories). It casts doubt, whether undue or not, onto the new platform. If this keeps up into the spring, who in their right mind would develop a Japan-oriented Vita title over a PSP one (or a 3DS or smartphone one, even)? Having sat in game planning sessions for nearly a year now, this is a legitimate concern for many developers.

I'm not making any suggestions as to what the future holds for PSP and Vita, but if PSP sales continue to be high and Vita sales low, there could be repercussions down the line that will be more damaging to Sony than the PSP optimal profit they get right now. One way or another, Sony really shouldn't wait too long. Nintendo chose to just press "abort" on the original DS, but it will reward them in the future.
Poor GBA it was killed off so quickly.
 
I didn't really follow sales age much back then but why was the GBA cut off so early? It always looks so weird looking at sales graphs and seeing it just demolishing everything early on.

But it simply does NOT look good for a new platform to be immediately and markedly outsold by a predecessor platform (that happens to be dead in overseas territories). It casts doubt, whether undue or not, onto the new platform. If this keeps up into the spring, who in their right mind would develop a Japan-oriented Vita title over a PSP one (or a 3DS or smartphone one, even)? Having sat in game planning sessions for nearly a year now, this is a legitimate concern for many developers.

There is also the other benefit that the PSP has fairly close specs to the 3DS which i assume makes it easier to port games as well.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
I'm not making any suggestions as to what the future holds for PSP and Vita, but if PSP sales continue to be high and Vita sales low, there could be repercussions down the line

and again - we'll see how things pan out. All i see is undue panic over 3 weeks sales - it's bullshit.
 
and again - we'll see how things pan out. All i see is undue panic over 3 weeks sales - it's bullshit.

The panic is due to how shitty the 3DS sales were at their higher price point and the fact that somehow Vita has done worse, even with the better hardware, better launch lineup and launching in the Christmas period.

If 3DS, with the massive DS success behind it, couldn't magically turn things around, why should the Vita?
 
and again - we'll see how things pan out. All i see is undue panic over 3 weeks sales - it's bullshit.

2 large drops in 3 weeks, some of the biggest weeks of the year, for a new handheld which is being outsold by its predecessor is, while not something to panic about necessarily, not a great situation to be in. Given that similar things happened with the 3DS - which sold about double (from memory) what Vita did in its 3rd week - people are extrapolating and arriving at a bad place.
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
and again - we'll see how things pan out. All i see is undue panic over 3 weeks sales - it's bullshit.
The panic is not entirely based upon the current performance of the Vita. The doubts mainly appears with the study of Sony's questionable strategy with the platform.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
It's not even that the PS Vita numbers are particularly low for a launch that's troubling, it's that they are so low during the busiest shopping time of the year that worries me.

This system could easily go sub 10k in about a month.
 
and again - we'll see how things pan out. All i see is undue panic over 3 weeks sales - it's bullshit.

The negativity is not based on just three weeks of sales, it's based on the many factors which could lead the Vita to selling poorly (low third-party confidence in the system and few announcements, Sony Japan is in shambles, likely high manufacturing prices, etc). The poor sales just give some credence to the negativity.
 
It's not even that the PS Vita numbers are particularly low for a launch that's troubling, it's that they are so low during the busiest shopping time of the year that worries me.

This system could easily go sub 10k in about a month.
I am not really sure.

It is currently performing near similar to what PSP did back then, and PSP never dropped below 10k. Also, PSV has launched against PSP and 3DS, while PSP only had to face DS.

However, we yet have to see if PSP audience will move to PSV.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
While I replied to a specific post of his, this was a theme he was developing over several posts, not just on this page. Consider this post by him:
Or this one:
He's clearly talking about the console market in general, not just the PS3.
Fair enough.

Final Fantasy was declining even when it was on the PS2.
It was definitely down from its heights of 7 & 8. But when considering their lifetime, re-release, and debut sales, its extremely hard to paint the series as being in decline last generation. There isn't a consistent, discernible pattern of decline and certainly not one like what's being discussed recently.

Would you consider Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 opening at 1 million copies in NPD a bomb, even if all of those were full price?
I would agree that if the game lost them a lot of money it could be considered a bomb, but that example is not reflected to this case.

Final Fantasy XIII-2 will probably make money. However, if it falls notably short of expectations, it can have a very large negative impact on the overall profitability of Square Enix, which is what I would consider a bomb.

It's a bomb [relative to expectations].
We don't know SE's expectations for the game. We do know that they are only projecting to sell 5.3 million units for the fiscal-year in Japan. Which would make it their second slowest year of the generation and 1.2 million less than last fiscal-year's sales. So I doubt that XII-2 could be all that off from their expectations.
 

Erethian

Member
I am not really sure.

It is currently performing near similar to what PSP did back then, and PSP never dropped below 10k. Also, PSV has launched against PSP and 3DS, while PSP only had to face DS.

However, we yet have to see if PSP audience will move to PSV.

Vita looks like it will start to fall behind what the PSP did during its launch period, unless there's a sudden upswing in sales. They'll probably be about even after next week, then Vita will start to track lower.

Part of the reason Vita is tracking ahead at the moment is because it had a larger initial shipment than what the PSP got.
 

fernoca

Member
I think it's also part of the problem of the whole "bomba" term been overused around here too much. Heck, its also used when some stores do sales that last 1 week.

Like (random example..from the US) Mortal Kombat.
"Bomba", because nearly 2 weeks later Toys R Us put it on sale with a coupon; like they has been doing with M-rated games over the last months/year...and by that time, the game was already like at 1 million copies sold, WB was talking about outperforming their expectations, covering the costs of what they spent in buying the franchise, etc.

I know it's "fun" and I don't mind; but the term tends to be used too much in situations that while I get that it's meant to be fun and sarcastic; many others use it (or believe) that is serious; even if it just means "disappointing" or "lower than expected".
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
2 large drops in 3 weeks, some of the biggest weeks of the year, for a new handheld which is being outsold by its predecessor is, while not something to panic about necessarily, not a great situation to be in. Given that similar things happened with the 3DS - which sold about double (from memory) what Vita did in its 3rd week - people are extrapolating and arriving at a bad place.

You are also forgetting about the fact that the 3DS had a few games from multi-million selling series announced for it at this point.

Vita's got no exclusive games announced that can pull anything close to those numbers in Japan. Nothing.
 

milanbaros

Member?
I didn't really follow sales age much back then but why was the GBA cut off so early? It always looks so weird looking at sales graphs and seeing it just demolishing everything early on.

I think it was because Nintendodidn't want just the GBA against the PSP. They were so unsure about the DS though, that they allowed themselves room to fall back to the GBA if it bombed. It didn't.
 
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