3DS is an interesting one. It could be down heavily given it's current release line up, or it could be fairly flat, or it could be up quite a bit. Remember there's a decent chance that this year ends with MHXG, DQ XI, and a third third/fourth Pokémon title, all three of which will move hardware.
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Media Create Sales: Week 53, 2015 (Dec 28 - Jan 03)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
3DS is an interesting one. It could be down heavily given it's current release line up, or it could be fairly flat, or it could be up quite a bit. Remember there's a decent chance that this year ends with MHXG, DQ XI, and a third third/fourth Pokémon title, all three of which will move hardware.
Big sellers this year are:
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3
Monster Hunter Stories
Yo-kai Watch 3
Dragon Quest XI (until March 2017)
Pokemon Z (not announced but of course it's coming)
comparing to last year's
Dragon Quest VIII
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer
Yo-Kai Watch Busters
Monster Hunter X
Dragon Quest XI will be the bigger factor of these to determine hw sales if it comes out before December.
Jon Carter
Member
What do you think about The Snack World? Unproven, but as a new IP I wonder if it could move some hardware if it's successful. Also the NFC aspect of the game could sell some N3DS/XL seeing as it's central to the project.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
I'm blown away that Splatoon is about to overtake Mario Kart 8, and probably end the Wii U generation as the best selling first-party title. Does anyone know where NSMBU currently ranks? How about Smash Bros. U? I'm wondering if that Cloud DLC will bolster the console version closer to those top 3 juggernauts I quoted.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
which one?
24./26. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} - 7.839 / 729.427 (-24%)
NSMBU is still above MK8 I thought.
Splatoon will likely be the best selling console game this gen, not only for Wii U.
It's main competition is FF15 and DQ11 ps4.
edit:
oh and FF7R. But if FF7R goes to NX and PC that takes it out of the running. (I don't think it will be on NX so don't attack me lol)
Pennywise83
Banned
Last year there was some mild hw effect due to New 3DS / XL; plus Yo-kai Watch Buster (2m seller) and Animal Crossing (1m+ seller). First-half 2015 line-up was quite terribile, though (this was true for all platforms).
I forgot these 2 entirelly.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Ehh, I don't know. It might vary based on how you calculate the month based on weeks, but seems like DS's first December comes out on top.
Code:
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu |
| | NDS # | NDS # | NDS # | NDS # | 3DS # | 3DS # | 3DS # | 3DS # |
|Mo|2004.11.29|2005.11.28|2006.11.27|2007.11.26|2011.11.28|2012.11.26|2013.11.25|2014.12.01|
| | to | to | to | to | to | to | to | to |
| |2004.12.26|2005.12.25|2006.12.31|2007.12.30|2011.12.25|2012.12.30|2013.12.29|2014.12.28|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1| 1.095.930| 1.447.719| 1.477.904| 1.053.460| 1.492.931| 1.407.744| 859.971| 693.099|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+These are first 4 Decembers and the period they cover. DS had the record which 3DS took in 2011.
1*: [ALL] Top 100 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
2*: [ALL] Top 300 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
3*: [ALL] Top 500 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
4*: [ALL] Top 1000 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
2*: [ALL] Top 300 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
3*: [ALL] Top 500 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
4*: [ALL] Top 1000 Software Sales <ALL> (All Publishers) {1996.01.01} (¥0) - /
Code:
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu | Famitsu |
| | 1* | 2* | 3* | 4* |
|CY|1996.01.01|1996.01.01|1996.01.01|1996.01.01|
| | to | to | to | to |
| |2014.12.28|2014.12.28|2014.12.28|2014.12.28|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|32.513.337| | | |
| 2|38.517.626| | | |
| 3|39.949.654| | | |
| 4|46.330.558|61.640.081| | |
| 5|37.340.797|49.975.377| | |
| 6|32.088.803|42.749.617| | |
| 7|32.986.093|45.511.025| | |
| 8|33.245.068|46.247.139| | |
| 9|35.472.652|49.578.125|54.512.445| |
|10|32.682.597|46.440.862|50.941.478| |
|11|51.408.345|66.728.160|71.839.491| |
|12|45.584.604|63.404.134|69.630.583| |
|13|39.553.599|54.260.393|60.115.062| |
|14|41.745.549|54.684.616|59.507.654|63.560.891|
|15|41.826.225|53.482.196|57.808.225|61.895.607|
|16|29.410.007|42.359.845|46.852.959|50.737.751|
|17|32.288.787|43.060.529|46.902.270|50.223.687|
|18|33.492.558|42.679.793|45.682.195|48.026.136|
|19|30.434.232| | | |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+Moor-Angol
Banned
price and lack of multiplayer will be a big problem for this game
PSV - 57pt
PS4 - 42pt
PS3 - 12pt or less
as January 9 are really a low result considering it is just a little more than Odin's Sphere remake (PS4 45pt PSV 42pt PS3 as DQB)
it would be interesting to see how was going DQH 3 weeks before its release to understand how DQB could perform
A blog of a Rakuten employee mentioned that the game is doing consirebably worse than Heroes on pre orders, altough he wouldn't specify if that was only one version or combined.
Still though, given the performance of Minecraft, I'd expect this game to be a slow burner, not really front loaded.
Still though, given the performance of Minecraft, I'd expect this game to be a slow burner, not really front loaded.
If sales are low retailers might slash price early, so they could force the game into being a slow burner.
Maybe we can hear something from Square Enix weeks after that pricecut done by retailers. I think that wouldn't be the first time a publisher makes adjustments at the official price. Builders after all is a great bet on that genre and surely they don't expect it fails as we are claiming here.
They didn't even include a multiplayer, one of the biggest components of Minecraft.
The whole thing is a mess of planning (platform, price, missing key features for the type of game) that is seemingly dependent on the idea that fans will buy it because it has the name on it.
Ōkami;191741526 said:
Sure, but then they won't want to buy more stock unless SE tanks the price themselves.
Well that's a given for the hypothesis to be viable...
Moor-Angol
Banned
i dont see the point in common, or someone is expecting DQB easily make at least 500k as someone expected for P&DSMB ?
I think he means that in the negative way: "Oh two strong IP/ideas put together, surely this must do well!"
Pennywise83
Banned
I don't see nothing wrong in expecting at least 500k for a game of a popular franchise, in a popular genre, on three platforms which clearly shown they can host games selling in that range.
Code:
+--+----------+----------+
| | Famitsu | Famitsu |
| | XBX | XB1 |
|Mo|2002.02.22|2014.09.04|
| | to | to |
| |2005.12.25|2018.07.29|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1| 123.929| 30.411|
| 2| 66.163| 4.237|
| 3| 14.118| 6.914|
| 4| 12.479| 4.396|
| 5| 19.683| 2.372|
| 6| 15.334| 1.708|
| 7| 13.137| 2.001|
| 8| 14.017| 1.938|
| 9| 10.188| 1.414|
|10| 8.431| 901|
|11| 30.220| 611|
|12| 26.516| 1.036|
|13| 13.462| 650|
|14| 9.804| 1.589|
|15| 4.842| 2.488|
|16| 4.150| 1.385|
|17| 7.334| 379|
|18| 4.894| |
|19| 4.809| |
|20| 2.627| |
|21| 2.006| |
|22| 7.187| |
|23| 9.226| |
|24| 6.252| |
|25| 4.076| |
|26| 2.594| |
|27| 1.860| |
|28| 1.955| |
|29| 1.500| |
|30| 1.389| |
|31| 1.633| |
|32| 942| |
|33| 1.328| |
|34| 8.211| |
|35| 3.512| |
|36| 3.016| |
|37| 1.221| |
|38| 1.313| |
|39| 1.324| |
|40| 1.410| |
|41| 761| |
|42| 1.059| |
|43| 714| |
|44| 576| |
|45| 711| |
|46| 533| |
|47| 548| |
+--+----------+----------+
I'm fairly sure people were expecting that, if not more.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I really have doubts DQB can sell well as people expect, just because it's called Dragon Quest means that it should sell ?
And the comparsion with Minecraft slow start is wrong, before Vita retail release it already sold a lot on digital on both PS3 and PSV
Square-enix tax and lack of multiplayer will have a bad impact on the title, but people are free to think it will sell 500k or even 1mln, let's over-hype the game so then we can say "look, DQB bombed hard !!!"
Kresnik258
Member
That's where the P&D vs. Mario comparison comes from I think. On paper, you see it and say "these two franchises both sell well on the platform it's releasing on, it should be a smash hit!" and then the game releases and isn't all it should be so overships and underperforms.
Similar situation with SMT x FE I suppose, whereas on paper you've got a game that could sell decently there, but the execution is all off.
And again, I think it's applicable here. On paper DragonQuestCraft should be massive, but they've made a lot of errors with it by the looks of things.
Another problem is all the FE and SMT fanbases are on 3DS since it's where the main games are releasing.
SMT x FE on Wii U never made any sense.
Pennywise83
Banned
Well, DQ is a massively popular IP in Japan, and typically spin-offs sell well - meaning that the fanbase is willing to give a chance to game even if they are not traditional jRPGs; e.g. DQ Heroes. Also, it is not very clear how much RPG-esque will be, meaning that fans of the franchise might still enjoy the game as a departure from the main franchise. In my opinion, DQ Builders is targeting first towards DQ fans, at least in Japan.
All in all, I just don't see as an unreasonable prediction over 500k units for a game from a super-popular franchise, in a super-popular genre, on 3 platforms which shown can perfectly host mid-sized titles.
How much are you expecting to sell? Not even crossing 100k on each platform?
All in all, I just don't see as an unreasonable prediction over 500k units for a game from a super-popular franchise, in a super-popular genre, on 3 platforms which shown can perfectly host mid-sized titles.
How much are you expecting to sell? Not even crossing 100k on each platform?
That's actually not bad for a 8000 yen remaster.
Remake.
Ah okay I wasn't sure. I'm going to look up how the original did
Edit: Here's how the original opened in 2007.
03./00. [PS2] Odin Sphere (Atlus) - 59,248 / NEW
It's likely that the remake will open higher than this. Not bad
Moor-Angol
Banned
I do not understand the comparison...
on the left corner : P&D was a rpg with puzzle combat system took from the mobile game, P&DSMB was the same game you can play on mobile (for free) with just some characters from nintendo
on the right corner : Minecraft is a first person adventure with multiplayer online features and set with a "budget" price, DQB is a Minecraft clone with characters from a popular brand, but without multiplayer features and set with a "high level game" price
it's totally different...
on the other side I agree with you about #FE, but expectations here were on 100k or more, but based on what? cause it took 2 popular brands ?
And as it happened for P&DSMB on COMG the same happened to #FE (it barely charted into top30 iirc) and it's actually happening to DQB: as I said, look at Odin's Spere HD remake, do we really think that if DQB must sell like hotcakes the same will happen to OSHD cause they have almost the same points ?
I likely think that sales will be low for both products cause DQB is a good idea (as it was #FE) but it's badly executed
I just hope we'll not have another "Gundam Extreme" situation, cause also in this case the idea was good but was totally ruined by the worst choices BandaiNamco could have done...
but in the end if I am wrong I will be the first to be happy cause it means that DQB is selling
It's not like there is no fans of the series on the wiiu too. Of course the numbers aren't very big, but as i listed in this thread, there is 4 (or 5?) fire emblem games on the top 25 list of wiiu virtual console. There is an overlap of fans, just like usual. #FE is good, but it's not at all like an Fire Emblem game, so i can see some fans not wanting this.
Pennywise83
Banned
This is one of the cases where the game became a cult hit and therefore its following is way larger than what can appear from units sold in the original release.
test_account
XP-39C²
~80k for Odin Sphere would be great, but selling more than the original? Would be surprising to me.
There's also the fact that Vanillaware is a more renowned developer now and that Odin Sphere Leifthrasir is a significantly better game than the first.
That wouldn't be surprising at all. The posted predictions also don't include the PS3 SKU.
Pennywise83
Banned
Just out of curiosity, Did Dragon Quest Monsters on GBC have multi-player battles and trading?
This, also. Furthermore, it would not be the first time a Vanillaware game sells more in a subsequent release - Muramasa PSV outperformed Muramasa Wii by a wide margin:
Muramasa: The Demon Blade: 23,900 / 45,825
Muramasa Rebirth: 39,248 / 78,253
This, also. Furthermore, it would not be the first time a Vanillaware game sells more in a subsequent release - Muramasa PSV outperformed Muramasa Wii by a wide margin:
Muramasa: The Demon Blade: 23,900 / 45,825
Muramasa Rebirth: 39,248 / 78,253
test_account
XP-39C²
I didnt know that, but still, almost unheard of that remakes does better than the original. I mean surprsing in that way.
Do you have the ltd on the original Odin Sphere as well?
96,280 by Famitsu.
Thanks. Used sales must have been great with the original for this remake to do so well.
Again, the original was 9 years ago. Things are different since then, and it's far from insignificant that Odin Sphere Leifthrasir is a very different game and also much better than the 2007 release.
Pennywise83
Banned
Well, not that surprising given that Muramasa PSV sold more than Muramasa Wii and Dragon's Crown sold quite well, increasing consumers' awareness of Vanillaware. Also, we're talking of quite niche numbers here
PreyingShark
Member
Yes. And it was kewl.
Is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet is Joker 3 out yet?
test_account
XP-39C²
Muramasa Wii only opened with ~24k (Famitsu) though, its easier to beat that. If Odin Sphere Leifthrasir was a brand new game like Dragon's Crown was, i wouldnt be so surpsied at the number (since Dragon's Crown sold really good).
Personally, i dont really concider 80k+ as quite niche in today's market, but fair enough. Its only a prediction anyway, still remains to see the actual sales.
In regards to DQB's success/failure, it really will depend on the original community. For Minecraft one of the major catalysts was youtube and viral videos that showed people building things like the Starship Enterprise. The community basically marketed the game. If people are creating cool worlds that they then share on youtube and nico, which then go viral, then maybe it will have legs. If they don't OR if you can't, well then it will probably be a dud.
Multiplayer is a big omission which I don't understand, and one which I'm not sure is critical or not of the games success (it probably is). I hope the reason for the omission isn't because they want to create a DQB2 with this feature in mind, because that's probably not the best approach for this type of game.
Multiplayer is a big omission which I don't understand, and one which I'm not sure is critical or not of the games success (it probably is). I hope the reason for the omission isn't because they want to create a DQB2 with this feature in mind, because that's probably not the best approach for this type of game.