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[Celine]

I think my post was pretty clear.
I said looking at those numbers, not at other data.
It is pretty strange for such a failing console with low install base and no third party support being able to get those results in terms of software.
it was a comment about how impressive some (few, of course) Wii U titles are able to be notwithsanding everything

It's Nintendo.
We have a long history of Nintendo games selling well in Japan.

Looking more broadly (worldwide), Nintendo always had very high first-party/total software ratio (usually more than 30%).
It can be seen as an anomaly compared other console manufacturers but it's an historical norm for Nintendo:

Of course the industry landscape changed in the course of years so my statement is a generalization that doesn't look at the single instances.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Sony should start to make bundles so sw sales would look better

Or just release 10 games on their system and avoid publishers to make games on them so those 10 games would sell like hot cakes

WiiU is in the same situation N64 was, a bunch of first party titles which sells for months and anything else

not sure if serious but if it was the case since PS1 i'm sure sony platforms would be selling like xbox one.

 

[Takao]

Taiko Vita out of stock in Japan since December.
Dragon Ball, J-Star VS, Miku F2, One Piece Musou 3, World Trigger, FIFA15(yes, 15) all have stock problems. The sell price of FIFA15 Vita is higher than FIFA16 PS4 in Amazon Japan now.

FIFA 15 is the latest soccer game on Vita. EA's done with Legacy Editions on PSV/3DS/Wii. Konami never released a PES* on it either.

*I know talking Konami and logic is a fool's errand, but how do they justify making Power Pros for a Japan-only release on PS4, but couldn't justify making a global PES for Vita?

The only interesting thing is to see where Taiko 2016 will land and how it will perform.

That's not interesting. It will be on 3DS. They took a year off between the first and second game, and 2015 was the year off between the second and third. V Version was the one in-between.

 

[Pennywise83]

That's not interesting. It will be on 3DS. They took a year off between the first and second game, and 2015 was the year off between the second and third. V Version was the one in-between.

Who knows. After all, they kept releasing Wii U games on a yearly basis - perhaps they have another Taiko game coming on PSV. Or perhaps they will release a 3DS version along with a PSV version and another Wii U version; or, even more interestingly, Namco will set the ground for Taiko on PS4 (I don't think it's very likely, but who knows).

Namco Bandai didn't always follow the "one-year-break rule" on DS, since games came out in 2007, 2008 and 2010.

 

[Chris1964]

Who knows. After all, they kept releasing Wii U games on a yearly basis - perhaps they have another Taiko game coming on PSV. Or perhaps they will release a 3DS version along with a PSV version and another Wii U version; or, even more interestingly, Namco will set the ground for Taiko on PS4 (I don't think it's very likely, but who knows).

Namco Bandai didn't always follow the "one-year-break rule" on DS, since games came out in 2007, 2008 and 2010.

[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dokodon in Touch! # {2007.07.26}
[NDS] Meccha! Taiko no Tatsujin DS: The 7 Island Adventure {2008.04.24}
[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dokodon in Touch! # Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Youkai Daikessen!! {2010.07.01}
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb {2012.07.12}
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken {2014.06.26}

[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii # {2008.12.11}
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Dodoon to 2 Daime! # {2009.11.19}
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Minna de Party 3-Yome! # {2010.12.02}
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Definitive Edition # {2011.11.23}
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition # {2012.11.29}
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! # {2013.11.21}
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tokumori! # {2014.11.20}
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumete Tomodachi Daisakusen! # {2015.11.26}

 

[Pennywise83]

[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dokodon in Touch! # {2007.07.26}
[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dokodon in Touch! (1/1)(Update) {2007.09.13}
[NDS] Meccha! Taiko no Tatsujin DS: The 7 Island Adventure {2008.04.24}
[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dokodon in Touch! # Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Youkai Daikessen!! {2010.07.01}
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb {2012.07.12}
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken {2014.06.26}

Oh, the rule is cross-generation, I didn't know. Anyway, the second DS entry was released after less than one year the previous one.

What I was trying to say is that it's likely NB will release another 3DS entry - not because of the one-year-gap, but more because sales on 3DS are pretty good. I tend to not read too much into such patterns - I don't think publishers set up strategies following them, but they consider other factors. For example, PSP got two Taiko games in 2005 and 2006 so one should have expected a Taiko game in 2007 before the first DS entry was announced (or, for example, a PSP Taiko game in 2008, instead of a DS one and so on), but the third one was only released in 2011. Or, for example, PSV getting an official Taiko game and an Idolmaster version the same year.

 

[Ōkami]

Using Dengeki, on the 53 week long calendar year, there were 36.320.279 retail games sold in Japan, breaking it by platform.
3DS: 18.343.250
PSV: 5.211.540
PS4: 4.748.746
PS3: 4.211.542
WIU: 3.723.025
XB1: 82.176

PSP and Wii both moved more software than the Xbox One this year, in fact, that system has sold less than 200k units of software since it's release.

Everyone else is doing graphs, so.

Also, the biggest publishers of the year should be something like this.

1. Nintendo
2. Bandai Namco
3. Capcom
4. Level 5
5. Square Enix
6. SCE
7. Konami
8. Pokémon Co.
9. SEGA
10. Koei Tecmo

Nintendo is the largest publisher of the year by a pretty large margin, they sold over 3m units more than Bandai Namco, maybe even twice as much.

 

[Mpl90]

Those posted earlier were charts about the best selling titles for 2015. Instead, All-Time charts show sales from Wii U launch to now.
Now, it must be said that such sporadic updates could be due to Nintendo not refreshing charts as much as they did in the past. You see, so far Nintendo has been refreshing eShop rankings every three hours...but, for the past few weeks, it seems they updated once...a week. If not more. In fact, last week, current and All-Time japanese charts stayed exactly the same till December 29th, when the weekly top 10 was posted. That's when Minecraft went from 9th to 3rd on All-Time charts. The same happened from December 29th to a few hours ago: charts didn't change at all. BriBri, who is a Japanese 3DS owner, while stating there can be discrepancies, confirmed online and eShop charts aligned, yesterday, before the new refresh.



Now, though, it would seem strange to be a Japanese-only phenomenon. And it's possible it isn't. I've been checking italian Wii U eShop charts, and while I can't say for sure that charts were unmoving between December 22nd to December 29th (but, when I looked, they seemed to be not moving), I can definitely say that, since December 29th, charts stayed exactly the same, despite new releases and deals ending. Now, just checked and...yes, Italian Wii U charts finally changed, showing new releases and different positions.

Btw, since All-Time charts changed as well

- Overall Italian All-Time Charts show Minecraft as 8th, and Fast Racing NEO as 20th. Earlier, Minecraft was 13th, and FRN was out of top 20
- Wii U only Italian All-Time Charts show Minecraft as 6th and FRN as 11th. Previously, they were respectively 8th and 14th

So, since this change seems to be going on (or, at least, it happened in the past few weeks) both on Japanese and Italian charts, I suppose this refresh-time change involves all countries' eShop charts.

Quoting myself just to advice that Japanese Nintendo eShop charts have started refreshing several times per day again: positions changing, different titles entering, etc.etc.

At this point, though, I wonder what caused the sudden change in the refresh timing (from one-every-three-hours to one-every-week, if not more). Is it possible it was just due to less work force being around due to Japanese Holiday weeks? By checking older eShop charts thread, I can definitely say Italian charts, at least, were updated normally around end of 2014 - beginning of 2015, which is not what happened for a while, with charts refreshing just twice in 16 days.

 

[Takao]

1. Nintendo
2. Bandai Namco
3. Capcom
4. Level 5
5. Square Enix
6. SCE
7. Konami
8. Pokémon Co.
9. SEGA
10. Koei Tecmo

Nintendo is the largest publisher of the year by a pretty large margin, they sold over 3m units more than Bandai Namco, maybe even twice as much.

if you take out minecraft from sony do they still chart from bloodborne and a bunch of non-notables on ps4?

 

[Ōkami]

if you take out minecraft from sony do they still chart from bloodborne and a bunch of non-notables on ps4?

Yeah, they'd be between Pokémon Co. and SEGA.

Minecraft is the bulk of SCE's software for 2015, but it's not even half.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I think my post was pretty clear.
I said looking at those numbers, not at other data.
It is pretty strange for such a failing console with low install base and no third party support being able to get those results in terms of software.
it was a comment about how impressive some (few, of course) Wii U titles are able to be notwithsanding everything

The GC and N64 were the same. Same franchises that do incredibly well but lack of third party support resulting in low software output, low software sales and being unable to attract other audiences. I'll definitely agree that Splatoon is outstanding.

 

[Orgen]

Chris, Pokemon Rumble World is twice in your last chart (33 & 38).

Now that we had all kinds of charts for 2015 (thanks Chris, lascar and everyone) where are my prediction results Road? Did we make some global 2015 predictions? It could be fun to revise them today Let's throw some questions for 2015 results!

What was the biggest 2015 bomb in the end? I'm seeing Pokemon Rumble World selling better so maybe Animal Crossing Amiibo gets the award?

What was your biggest disappointment in sales during 2015? For me it was #FE no doubt and DQ VIII in second place (I thought it could reach 1.3 million easily despite the mobile version).

And your biggest surprise? Splatoon no contest. Second for me are MGS V selling more on PS4 than PS3 and Minecraft Vita numbers.

Now, predictions for 2016!

Hardware:

- PS4 won't pass Wii U LTD in 2016 (starting with a bang!)
- 3DS will be the best seller HW in 2016
- PS4 will sell more than 100.000 in a week only once in 2016.
- No console/handheld will surpass 2m YTD in 2016 (but HW totals will be better than 2015)

Software:

- Yokai Watch 3 and Dragon Quest XI (3DS) will sell more than 3 million copies each and will be in the top 3 of the year. The other title will be an unannounced title (that will also probably sell more than 3 million copies).
- Persona 5 (combined) > Dragon Quest XI (PS4) > Dragon Quest Builders (combined)
- Zelda: Twilight Princess HD > Zelda: Wind Waker HD
- Zelda Wii U > Zelda: Skyward Sword.
- Monster Hunter Stories > Final Fantasy XV
- Pokken > Street Fighter V
- Dead or Alive Xtreme 3 (combined) > Toukiden 2 (combined) > Hyrule Warriors Legend
- Star Fox Zero > Nier: Auomata
- Uncharted 4 > Horizon Zero Dawn
- World of FF (combined) > Star Ocean V (combined) > Valkirya: Azure Revolution > Project Setsuna (combined and with Pennywise comments about bombing)
- Minecraft Wii U becomes nº1 on the eshop All Time charts (and we'll get a new thread, probably by Hero Legend)
- LTD Milestones: Super Mario Maker > 1m, Minecraft Vita (retail) > 850.000, Splatoon > 1,6m, Monster Strike > 1m, Monster Hunter X > 3m, Persona 5 (combined) > 750.000, World of FF > 500.000... and Taiko (Vita) > 150.000
-

Spoiler

Mario Party 10 LTD > Bloodborne LTD and Devil Brain Training reaches 500.000 LTD

;D

What are your predictions?

 

[Celine]

Biggest disappointment in 2015 for me was DQVIII.
I really thought it could surpass 1M easily.

Welp, I was wrong.

 

[Sandfox]

Chris, Pokemon Rumble World is twice in your last chart (33 & 38).

Now that we had all kinds of charts for 2015 (thanks Chris, lascar and everyone) where are my prediction results Road? Did we make some global 2015 predictions? It could be fun to revise them today Let's throw some questions for 2015 results!

What was the biggest 2015 bomb in the end? I'm seeing Pokemon Rumble World selling better so maybe Animal Crossing Amiibo gets the award?

What was your biggest disappointment in sales during 2015? For me it was #FE no doubt and DQ VIII in second place (I thought it could reach 1.3 million easily despite the mobile version).

And your biggest surprise? Splatoon no contest. Second for me are MGS V selling more on PS4 than PS3 and Minecraft Vita numbers.

Now, predictions for 2016!

Hardware:

- PS4 won't pass Wii U LTD in 2016 (starting with a bang!)
- 3DS will be the best seller HW in 2016
- PS4 will sell more than 100.000 in a week only once in 2016.
- No console/handheld will surpass 2m YTD in 2016 (but HW totals will be better than 2015)

Software:

- Yokai Watch 3 and Dragon Quest XI (3DS) will sell more than 3 million copies each and will be in the top 3 of the year. The other title will be an unannounced title (that will also probably sell more than 3 million copies).
- Persona 5 (combined) > Dragon Quest XI (PS4) > Dragon Quest Builders (combined)
- Zelda: Twilight Princess HD > Zelda: Wind Waker HD
- Zelda Wii U > Zelda: Skyward Sword.
- Monster Hunter Stories > Final Fantasy XV
- Pokken > Street Fighter V
- Dead or Alive Xtreme 3 (combined) > Toukiden 2 (combined) > Hyrule Warriors Legend
- Star Fox Zero > Nier: Auomata
- Uncharted 4 > Horizon Zero Dawn
- World of FF (combined) > Star Ocean V (combined) > Valkirya: Azure Revolution > Project Setsuna (combined and with Pennywise comments about bombing)
- Minecraft Wii U becomes nº1 on the eshop All Time charts (and we'll get a new thread, probably by Hero Legend)
- LTD Milestones: Super Mario Maker > 1m, Minecraft Vita (retail) > 850.000, Splatoon > 1,6m, Monster Strike > 1m, Monster Hunter X > 3m, Persona 5 (combined) > 750.000, World of FF > 500.000... and Taiko (Vita) > 150.000
-

Spoiler

Mario Party 10 LTD > Bloodborne LTD and Devil Brain Training reaches 500.000 LTD

;D

What are your predictions?

You're predicting DQXI PS4 to sell less than 750k?

 

[Celine]

- No console/handheld will surpass 2m YTD in 2016 (but HW totals will be better than 2015)

Do you expect Vita or WiiU to be up YoY in 2016?
Regardless it's NX the true question mark in 2016 for HW...

 

[Orgen]

You're predicting DQXI PS4 to sell less than 750k?

Persona 5 > 750k could be Persona 5 = 1.000.000 right? But now that you're asking... I don't think DQ XI (PS4) will reach 1m LTD

Do you expect Vita or WiiU to be up YoY in 2016?
Regardless it's NX the true question mark in 2016 for HW...

Yep, I expect new HW (NX) to make up for the declines

 

[Celine]

Yep, I expect new HW (NX) to make up for the declines

And impacting PS4 HW sales based on

"PS4 won't pass Wii U LTD in 2016 (starting with a bang!)"

 

[Hero of Legend]

- Minecraft Wii U becomes nº1 on the eshop All Time charts (and we'll get a new thread, probably by Hero Legend)

LOL

Spoiler

Ya damn right! XD

 

[Pennywise83]

About DQXI on PS4... It really depends when it launches. 2016 might be a bit too early in terms of installed base and risky given the direct competition of the 3DS version; 2017 might be better because PS4 will be able to sustain a million seller and its version could be able to differentiate more from the handheld one; there's always the random NX version, though.

 

[Orgen]

And impacting PS4 HW sales based on

"PS4 won't pass Wii U LTD in 2016 (starting with a bang!)"

Not impacting PS4 per se because I don't see PS4 doing much more than 1,5m in 2016 despite everything (hence my "only one week with more than 100.000" comment). I'm seeing 3DS, PS4 and NX very very close (let's say in the 1,4-1,6m range) and PS4 beating Wii U LTD on January 2017 (maybe it'll happen before) so yeah, I expect only a slow decline for Wii U in 2016 (700-750.000 consoles is my range).

What are your predictions Celine?

 

[Alrus]

Not impacting PS4 per se because I don't see PS4 doing much more than 1,5m in 2016 despite everything (hence my "only one week with more than 100.000" comment). I'm seeing 3DS, PS4 and NX very very close (let's say in the 1,4-1,6m range) and PS4 beating Wii U LTD on January 2017 (maybe it'll happen before) so yeah, I expect only a slow decline for Wii U in 2016 (700-750.000 consoles is my range).

What are your predictions Celine?

I really don't see the Wii U holding "that well" in 2016. What software would keep it from falling back to consistent sub 10K numbers? Splatoon won't keep the sales going forever.

 

[L~A]

Biggest disappointment in 2015 for me was DQVIII.
I really thought it could surpass 1M easily.

Welp, I was wrong.

Would definitely have reached it if it was a full remake, in my opinion.

Anyway, Club SEGA in Shibuya is closing down at the end of the month: http://tempo.sega.jp/am/CS-shibuya/

 

[Orgen]

About DQXI on PS4... It really depends when it launches. 2016 might be a bit too early in terms of installed base and risky given the direct competition of the 3DS version; 2017 might be better because PS4 will be able to sustain a million seller and its version could be able to differentiate more from the handheld one; there's always the random NX version, though.

The only way I see DQ XI PS4 doing 1m is not launching simultaneously with 3DS version and being different (not only graphics).

I really don't see the Wii U holding "that well" in 2016. What software would keep it from falling back to consistent sub 10K numbers? Splatoon won't keep the sales going forever.

- Mario Maker being a more attractive bundle than Mario Kart 8 bundle
- Splatoon has more energy than we are expecting (except Red Ring )
- Several spikes (new limited editions/bundles for Pokken/Zelda, return of Splatoon bundle)
- NX not being a Wii U substitute or not being Wii U backwards compatible

Yeah, it's an optimistic view but I can see Wii U reaching 700.000 units in 2016.

But tell me your predictions people!!! I also want to comment other people predictions

 

[Kresnik258]

This is a stupid point I've seen repeated several times recently. It sure helped #FE right? Oh and it had a bundle! Surely it must have sold millions.

Well, a bundle helped Knack sell hundreds of thousands of copies rather than tens of copies

 

[noshten]

I really don't see the Wii U holding "that well" in 2016. What software would keep it from falling back to consistent sub 10K numbers? Splatoon won't keep the sales going forever.

Its bound to have a better 2016 until May at least due to Splatoon coupled with a few more releases this spring(Pokken, Star Fox, Zelda TP) - Q1 2016 is a lot better than last year. So the Wii U might not fall into the same abyss, especially if they expand the discounts on Splatoon for new Wii U owners or bundle with at a lower price in Japan.
Personally I expect Splatoon to be over 1.6 million by it's first year on the market and around 2 million by the end of 2016.
My expectation is that the NX being released right now is that it would just be the handheld version and the Wii U to actually get a few more games that are being made for both the NX and ported towards the Wii U. Can't really predict what a handheld NX launch would look like without knowing the sort of games we can expect at launch.

Hardware:
Wii U - 650K
3DS - 1500K
PS4 - 1750K
Vita - 800K


Also my other prediction is that more Splatoon amiibo will be announced this year - and that the game will be ported to the NX Handheld device for it's launch.

 

[Fisico]

Only commenting your predictions, well just ranking them in fact

SAFE

- Monster Hunter Stories > Final Fantasy XV
- Minecraft Wii U becomes nº1 on the eshop All Time charts (and we'll get a new thread, probably by Hero Legend)
- Super Mario Maker > 1m, Splatoon > 1,6m, Monster Strike > 1m, Monster Hunter X > 3m, Taiko (Vita) > 150.000

LIKELY

- 3DS will be the best seller HW in 2016
- PS4 will sell more than 100.000 in a week only once in 2016. (might as well state it will be FFXV's week)
- No console/handheld will surpass 2m YTD in 2016 (but HW totals will be better than 2015)
- Yokai Watch 3 and Dragon Quest XI (3DS) will sell more than 3 million copies each and will be in the top 3 of the year. The other title will be an unannounced title (that will also probably sell more than 3 million copies). (Would have been safe without the 3rd one)
- Zelda: Twilight Princess HD > Zelda: Wind Waker HD
- Zelda Wii U > Zelda: Skyward Sword.
- Pokken > Street Fighter V
- Minecraft Vita (retail) > 850.000

UNLIKELY

- Star Fox Zero > Nier: Automata
- World of FF > 500.000

BALLSY (by order of likelihood)

- World of FF (combined) > Star Ocean V (combined) > Valkyria: Azure Revolution > Project Setsuna (combined and with Pennywise comments about bombing) (Everything seems alright except World of FF above everything)
- Uncharted 4 > Horizon Zero Dawn
- Persona 5 (combined) > 750.000
- Persona 5 (combined) > Dragon Quest XI (PS4) > Dragon Quest Builders (combined)
- Dead or Alive Xtreme 3 (combined) > Toukiden 2 (combined) > Hyrule Warriors Legend

NB : Ballsy isn't below or above "unlikely" in the realm of possibilty for me, it just seems like predictions which will not be very popular and/or are about things for which we don't have enough data/info.

 

[1st Course]

If NX is also a console replacement, Wii U will see much bigger drop. Look up DS/Wii/PSP/PS3 YTD drops after their successors were released:

DS dropped from 2,898,041 (2010) to 657,787 (2011)
Wii dropped from 883,583 (2011) to 475,615 (2012)
PSP dropped from 2,898,041 (2010) to 2,079,152 (2011)
PS3 dropped from 849.590 (2013) to 459.317 (2014)

Of course time frame of the successor release make a big difference here, the earlier the release, the bigger the drop (as we see in case of the DS > 3DS).

But only 100k drop in the year the successor releases is just too low, the drop will be more significant.

 

[Mpl90]

If NX is also a console replacement, Wii U will see much bigger drop. Look up DS/Wii/PSP/PS3 YTD drops after their successors were released:

DS dropped from 2,898,041 (2010) to 657,787 (2011)
Wii dropped from 883,583 (2011) to 475,615 (2012)
PSP dropped from 2,898,041 (2010) to 2,079,152 (2011)
PS3 dropped from 849.590 (2013) to 459.317 (2014)

Of course time frame of the successor release make a big difference here, the earlier the release, the bigger the drop (as we see in case of the DS > 3DS).

But only 100k drop in the year the successor releases is just too low, the drop will be more significant.

You don't get it. While NX could potentially cut legs significantly to Wii U considering a home SKU coming this year, its release won't allow it to pass through the natural trasformation from kid-status to squid-status. As demonstrated by pure science and statistics, mature squids can't be stopped that easily, and their tentacles are long and sticky. Even if the new kid is much stronger and with much better future potential, older squids tend to stick for a while. So, it's certainly possible Wii U, a console fully in its squid-status, won't see hugely decreasing sales next year despite a brand new and much healthier ecosystem releasing, since it will be in kid-status for 2016.

Spoiler

Now, seriously, sales will decrease significantly if NX home is released next year. Jokes aside, Splatoon alone + the few releases Wii U gets don't allow that kind of hold, especially if something new is coming

 

[L~A]

But only 100k drop in the year the successor releases is just too low, the drop will be more significant.

Drop for Wii U next year is going to be worse than 100k.

NX announement + Splatoon sales slowing down + line-up worse than 2015... I'd be surprised if the drop was only 100k.

 

[Takao]

I guess Famitsu is now doing a monthly PlayStation Store Game Archives Top 50? http://www.famitsu.com/news/201601/09097003.html

 

[Eolz]

That DOAX3 prediction is more than extremely ballsy.

 

[L~A]

I guess Famitsu is now doing a monthly PlayStation Store Game Archives Top 50? http://www.famitsu.com/news/201601/09097003.html

Nvm. Either you stealth-edited your post or I misread it in the first place.

 

[Aostia]

The GC and N64 were the same. Same franchises that do incredibly well but lack of third party support resulting in low software output, low software sales and being unable to attract other audiences. I'll definitely agree that Splatoon is outstanding.

I know that, but mine was exactly a comment on the great results of those three softwares (and we could include a couple of other, probably). The very strong results of those is even stronger looking at N64 and GC. Those were somehow healthier consoles and still some Wii U game was/is able to really shine. Especially if we consider how the home console market collapsed, from those old days. I mean, if Smash Melee sold more than 1 million (so, better than Wii U one) it must also be noted (apart the obvious heavy influence of Smash for 3DS) how the home console market at that time was able to generate much better overall results with PS2.

So, in a collapsed home market, despite being lower in terms of install base, these are the best selling Nintendo home console games in Japan*:

N64:
Mario Kart 64: 1,711,661
Super Mario 64: 1,639,921
Smash Bros: 1,631,859
Zelda OOT: 1,143,570

GC: only 1 million seller
Smash Bros: 1,349,418

Despite the Wii U being weaker than both consoles, its best selling softwares seems stronger than GC and almost on par with the N64, and note that there are also digital sales to be added there:


New Super Mario Bros U: don't remember the data, but was the highest, right?
Mario Kart 8 1.147.539
Splatoon 1.135.874
Super Mario Maker 737.472 (it is lower than the previous games posted, but we all know that it will continue to sell)

We can obviously say that bundles make the difference, but I'm not so sure that this is completely true. It's not that they are/were always bundled, Splatoon was bundled for few weeks, Wii U hw sales are sluggish and digital sales are not counted here, so I'd say that despite the Wii U be weaker, its best selling games are stronger (note that I'm not saying that Wii U software is stronger). So, I'd say chapeu to those best selling Wii U games in Japan.

*Source: Garaph

 

[Nyoro SF]

Would definitely have reached it if it was a full remake, in my opinion.

Anyway, Club SEGA in Shibuya is closing down at the end of the month: http://tempo.sega.jp/am/CS-shibuya/

Oh wow. I really enjoyed my time there in Japan... rest in peace.

 

[noshten]

Drop for Wii U next year is going to be worse than 100k.

NX announement + Splatoon sales slowing down + line-up worse than 2015... I'd be surprised if the drop was only 100k.

People are really forgetting how badly WIU performed beginning of last year:

Mario Kart and WIU 2015 (Jan 05 - May 24)

Mario Kart 8 - 8.884  WIU - 10.803 
Mario Kart 8 - 6.915  WIU - 9.718 
Mario Kart 8 - 5.386  WIU - 7.088
Mario Kart 8 - 5.103  WIU - 6.807
Mario Kart 8  - 4.799  WIU - 6.517
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.007
Mario Kart 8 - 4.603  WIU - 6.070
Mario Kart 8  - 4.898  WIU - 6.070
Mario Kart 8 - 5.342  WIU - 7.379
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.054
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.595
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU -  6.698
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.486
Mario Kart 8 - 4.961 WIU - 6.654
Mario Kart 8 - 4.542 WIU - 6.324
Mario Kart 8 - 4.989 WIU - 7.210
Mario Kart 8 - 7.955 WIU - 22.898
Mario Kart 8 - 9.454 WIU - 11.137
Mario Kart 8 - 5.405 WIU - 6.428
Mario Kart 8 - 5.758 WIU - 7.611

Mario Kart 8 < 115.000 WIU - 164.554

Splatoon just sold twice the amount MK8 did in the Holiday period. YSO predicting 30-35k next week for Splatoon compared to 9K for MK8 post holiday.Currently we don't know what to expect as far as the slowdown for Splatoon and how WIU would be effected post new year with SMM/Splatoon and a few other titles poised to release Q1 on the WIU.

 

[Mory Dunz]

People are really forgetting how badly WIU performed beginning of last year:

Mario Kart and WIU 2015 (Jan 05 - May 24)

Mario Kart 8 - 8.884  WIU - 10.803 
Mario Kart 8 - 6.915  WIU - 9.718 
Mario Kart 8 - 5.386  WIU - 7.088
Mario Kart 8 - 5.103  WIU - 6.807
Mario Kart 8  - 4.799  WIU - 6.517
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.007
Mario Kart 8 - 4.603  WIU - 6.070
Mario Kart 8  - 4.898  WIU - 6.070
Mario Kart 8 - 5.342  WIU - 7.379
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.054
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.595
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU -  6.698
Mario Kart 8 < 5k WIU - 7.486
Mario Kart 8 - 4.961 WIU - 6.654
Mario Kart 8 - 4.542 WIU - 6.324
Mario Kart 8 - 4.989 WIU - 7.210
Mario Kart 8 - 7.955 WIU - 22.898
Mario Kart 8 - 9.454 WIU - 11.137
Mario Kart 8 - 5.405 WIU - 6.428
Mario Kart 8 - 5.758 WIU - 7.611

Mario Kart 8 < 115.000 WIU - 164.554

Splatoon just sold twice the amount MK8 did in the Holiday period. YSO predicting 30-35k next week for Splatoon compared to 9K for MK8 post holiday.Currently we don't know what to expect as far as the slowdown for Splatoon and how WIU would be effected post new year with SMM/Splatoon and a few other titles poised to release Q1 on the WIU.

I'm kinda expecting the Wii U to pull those numbers again tbh.

 

[theprodigy]

People are really forgetting how badly WIU performed beginning of last year:

*snip*

yeah, and? even if Splatoon completely holds up, soon it will have to face itself from a year ago, and I have a hard time seeing it hold up there

 

[Alrus]

- Mario Maker being a more attractive bundle than Mario Kart 8 bundle
- Splatoon has more energy than we are expecting (except Red Ring )
- Several spikes (new limited editions/bundles for Pokken/Zelda, return of Splatoon bundle)
- NX not being a Wii U substitute or not being Wii U backwards compatible

Yeah, it's an optimistic view but I can see Wii U reaching 700.000 units in 2016.

But tell me your predictions people!!! I also want to comment other people predictions

I think 2016 will be a worse year than 2014 for the Wii U.
-No real big hitter (zelda hasn't sold great in japan for a while, star fox will sell terribly, the only unknown is Pokken but it seems to be a relatively straight fighting game, those haven't sold particularly well lately)
-Leftover system sellers slowing down.
-NX announcement + likely release will probably finish it off if the product is attractive.

So I really don't think a light 100k drop is likely.

 

[Vena]

yeah, and? even if Splatoon completely holds up, soon it will have to face itself from a year ago, and I have a hard time seeing it hold up there

Splatoon + Super Mario Maker vs. Splatoon! (Duh.)

 

[Kid Ying]

I also think 2016 will have a fall bigger than 100k. Maybe on 2014 levels or even a little worse for Wiiu.

I still think the PS4 will not pass the system because i don't think the system will sell much more hardware than it already sold this year, unless FF15 releases this year.

 

[noshten]

yeah, and? even if Splatoon completely holds up, soon it will have to face itself from a year ago, and I have a hard time seeing it hold up there

The whole point is that Splatoon is an unknown quantity for the Wii U.
We can perhaps derive some expectations based on the MK8 numbers, personally I expect at least 300K new squids for the period(Jan 05 - May 24) and I expect the Wii U numbers to be very close to the Splatoon sales numbers. Than another 350-400K by the end of the year. So overall I do expect 2016 to be worse than 2014 but not much worse.

 

[Kid Ying]

The whole point is that Splatoon is an unknown quantity for the Wii U.
We can perhaps derive some expectations based on the MK8 numbers, personally I expect at least 300K new squids for the period(Jan 05 - May 24) and I expect the Wii U numbers to be very close to the Splatoon sales numbers. Than another 350-400K by the end of the year. So overall I do expect 2016 to be worse than 2014 but not much worse.

Well, if that happens it would actually be better than 2014!

I think splatoon will hold wiiu for a while, but it will be hard to compete against the new nintendo system. History already showed us that nintendo consoles tank hard when their successor is coming.

If the NX wasn't happening this year, wiiu had a couple more games and (crazy to think) a pricedrop, maybe it would hold well this year. Since its not happening, let's see how much the nx will cannibalize its sales.

 

[Aostia]

2016 will be lower than 2014 for wiiu. How much did it sold in 14?

 

[DrWong]

2016 will be lower than 2014 for wiiu. How much did it sold in 14?

You don't know the numbers but are still able to make a prediction?
Impressive :]

 

[Aostia]

You don't know the numbers but are still able to make a prediction?
Impressive :]

Thank you. Actually it is pretty simple knowing what was and will be available, knowing hw trend especially for Nintendo consoles and what will be announced.
I asked for numbers to give a number range.

But mk vs Zelda and smash vs pokken, enter in its fourth year and with NX behind the corner it is enough imho for a general statement

 

[The_lascar]

I think the biggest seller for the Wii U in 2016 would be a retail release of Minecraft.

 

[DrWong]

Thank you. Actually it is pretty simple knowing what was and will be available, knowing hw trend especially for Nintendo consoles and what will be announced.
I asked for numbers to give a number range.

But mk vs Zelda and smash vs pokken, enter in its fourth year and with NX behind the corner it is enough imho for a general statement

Not wrong but...

I think the biggest seller for the Wii U in 2016 would be a retail release of Minecraft.

I won't exclude new Wii U retail releases announcements and/or price drop. And we also don't really know what's the nx schedule release is. February, after the next corporate meeting, could give us a better picture. Maybe.

 

[Celine]

What are your predictions Celine?

I expect every system except PS4 and NX to be down YoY.

NX: Most likely supply constrained.
3DS: less than 2M
PS4: 1.5M-1.7M
WiiU: 650K
Vita: 800K
PS3: 100K
XBO: lol

That is I expect YTD in 2016 to be lower than the record low 2015 without NX.

EDIT:
BTW who expect WiiU to outsell GC in Japan?
GC LTD is about 4M.

 

[L~A]

I expect every system except PS4 and NX to be down YoY.

NX: Most likely supply constrained.
3DS: less than 2M
PS4: 1.5M-1.7M
WiiU: 650K
Vita: 800K
PS3: 100K
XBO: lol

EDIT:
BTW who expect WiiU to outsell GC in Japan?
GC LTD is about 4M.

That would depend on when the NX is announced and released, and how fast sales collapse.

I'm expecting Wii U sales to drop off a cliff once the NX is out (regardless of whether the NX has a successful launch or not), so I don't think it'll end up over 4m units in Japan.

 

[Sandfox]

That would depend on when the NX is announced and released, and how fast sales collapse.

I'm expecting Wii U sales to drop off a cliff once the NX is out (regardless of whether the NX has a successful launch or not), so I don't think it'll end up over 4m units in Japan.

I would expect them to die off after the NX is officially announced and shown off.