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[Jamix012]

Okay, list out what franchises you feel won't come, which you feel will come but decline, and give reasonings for each of them.

I'll be back in an hour, have to stop by the grocery store.

Edit: And where you think they will go instead of course.

I should be focusing on my essay but challenge accepted.

Final Fantasy - Already announced "something" for the PS4. Could well be a cross-gen port of FF XIII-3 but let's assume it's not. Final Fantasy XIII-2 showed a much bigger fall from FFXIII then FFX-2 showed from FFX. To me it looks like the franchise is weaker than it was at the launch of FFXIII. Next FF (after XIII-3) will probably still be on PS4 but could be cross-gen with PS3 still if the PS4 hasn't taken off by that point.

Resident Evil - Could well be on WiiU too. I beleive 6 sold less than 5 too. The series has been looking more western recently and it can't help the next game that 6's reviews weren't hugely positive. I suppose they could turn it around if 7 was a good game but I'm not holding my breath for such a thing.

One Piece - This could go anywhere frankly. It could well stay on the PS3. Isn't the next game PS3/Vita? I don't know a lot about this franchise but is it possible the anime might wane in popularity soon? I honestly have no idea. Could come to PS4 but again, could stay current gen. No real knowledge of this so someone please correct me.

MGS - Will probably hold firm in sales. The Nextbox could take a small fraction of it's sales if it does get such a port in Japan but the main issue is it could be cross gen.

Gran Turismo - Got nothing, could well be the PS4's biggest seller.

Hot Shots Golf - Again, got nothing. This will probably be fine sales-wise going into next gen.

Tales of - Could go anywhere. Could go to Nintendo, could go to last gen, could go to PS4.

Yakuza - Another game that's likely not to move in any way. Carry on.

Pro Evo Soccer - Cross gen/Multiplat game. If the PS4 DOES need saving after 6 months, this won't save it.

Dark Souls - Dark Souls 2 has been announced but I'm not sure if we know the platform? Could well be Cross-gen, could well include WiiU.

Monster Hunter - Might Never appear on a Sony console again. The best the PS4 will get is an HD port, but I'm doubtful.

Dragon's Dogma - Yeah, PS4. Probably Deep Down is it's spiritual successor.

CoD - On every console ever. Not exactly a big franchise in Japan.

Dynasty Warriors - Could well become a portable-only franchise. Tecmo-Koei isn't exactly a huge company so the dev costs of PS4 may well be a little too high for them.

Tokyo Jungle - Will we see a sequel? If we do will the novelty have worn off?

Atlus games - Could well remain on last gen consoles/portables if the dev costs are too high. We're seeing an awful lot of buddying with Nintendo too.

NIS Games - High dev costs means they could be Vita/PS3 only.

Bayonetta - Gone. Nintendo's now.

I've probably missed quite a few but this is my take on it. Not all of these bad case scenarios are going to happen, for sure, but if only a couple of them do happen then there'll likely be a knock-on effect. For example if FF releases cross gen and the PS4 sales are extremely weak initially devs are unlikely to continue supporting it, leading to even worse sales.

Edit: Top of the page again: Buy a 3DS and Kid Icarus Uprising, someday it'll get to 1 million.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wait, maybe I'm missing something, but why are you using the PS2 number when talking about the PS4?

You seem to be skipping a step- wouldn't it make more sense to use the PS3 500k number (13)? What possible relevance does the 71 number have, other than to show how drastically software sales as well as hardware sales fell from PS2 to PS3?

If you want to use the 500k number as some barometer of health for a future platform, the number 13 doesn't strike me as particularly impressive.

What I'm saying is that the PS2 to PS3 transition certainly didn't result in the PS3 achieving comparable success, as has been pointed out. And retention of the PS3's franchises doesn't necessitate similar sales for the PS4. But the same rationale can be easily applied elsewhere.

Ergo, I don't really see how the Wii's much smaller number, be that of 500K+ or 1M+ sellers is seen as a guarantor of success for the Wii U any more so than the PS2 was for the PS3. Is it simply because they're first party titles?

 

[Somnid]

However, the retention of most of the franchises that made up the 27 titles that sold 500K+ on the Wii, all but guarantee some measure of ultimate success for the Wii U?

Some of those titles are worth about 6 500K sellers and the magnitude generally dictates more concentrated sales potential, basically the spikes that are worth the most system sales.

 

[schuelma]

What I'm saying is that the PS2 to PS3 transition certainly didn't result in the PS3 achieving comparable success.

Ergo, I don't really see how the Wii's much smaller number, be that of 500K+ or 1M+ sellers is seen as a guarantor of success any more so than the PS2 was for the PS3.

Ok..I thought the discussion was now centered on the PS4 transition.

Who is arguing in this thread to expect Wii level success for Wii U?

 

[Dalthien]

The unsuccessful console of the 7th generation's paltry installed base moved 40M units of software for third parties, relative to the successful one's 17M. Yes, they didn't put enough software on the successful one, notwithstanding that.

I wouldn't call the Wii's 13M a success either - unless you're using that specific definition where it is being compared to its predecessor. I'd probably refer to the Wii LTD as decent/average/etc. 15M would probably be a good barometer for success in the Japanese market. 20M+ is an excellent result - and 30M+ like the DS is just off the charts. But the PS3 isn't a success.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Ok..I thought the discussion was now centered on the PS4 transition.

Who is arguing in this thread to expect Wii level success for Wii U?

The discussion seems to be on the merits of franchise retention. I don't see why the principle isn't applied beyond the PS systems.

Wii levels of success. Or success in general. Or just PS3 level sales.

There seems to be implication that Nintendo having their first party can result in a major turnaround. Something that never really happened for the PS3, despite its PS2 pedigree.

 

[schuelma]

I wouldn't call the Wii's 13M a success either - unless you're using that specific definition where it is being compared to its predecessor. I'd probably refer to the Wii LTD as decent/average/etc. 15M would probably be a good barometer for success in the Japanese market. 20M+ is an excellent result - and 30M+ like the DS is just off the charts. But the PS3 isn't a success.

Yeah, given how it trailed off so quickly I can't call Wii a success in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

There seems to be a lot of implication that Nintendo having their first party can result in a major turnaround.

Yes, I think that is very possible. I don't think that is an outlandish thought right now. Of course it depends on what we count as "major".

 

[metalslimer]

Wii U selling 15k a week would be a major turnaround at this point. I don't think Wii U will outsell the PS3 with the way its 3rd party support is looking. In end I think if Nintendo manages to get a turnaround to happen they will end up comfortably in between Gamecube and PS3. If the console didn't recover, I wonder how long Nintendo would be willing to prop up a system selling worse than the Gamecube.

 

[Nirolak]

I've probably missed quite a few but this is my take on it. Not all of these bad case scenarios are going to happen, for sure, but if only a couple of them do happen then there'll likely be a knock-on effect. For example if FF releases cross gen and the PS4 sales are extremely weak initially devs are unlikely to continue supporting it, leading to even worse sales.

Okay, so, let's say some of the major series decline and one or two don't show up as you described.

Where are the developers who made these games going exactly? I mean, going into the PS3 generation, and even some of them for the PS2 generation, most of these franchises declined as it was, yet as of the moment they're still on PS3.

Are we proposing that the teams are shutting down/dissolving into making more handheld games? Are they all going to stay on PS3 for the next seven years? This is the part I'm not following from any of this.

Edit: Top of the page again: Buy a 3DS and Kid Icarus Uprising, someday it'll get to 1 million.

I have a 3DS and Kid Icarus Uprising.

 

[metalslimer]

Are we proposing that the teams are shutting down/dissolving into making more handheld games?

Well we've already seen a major shift for Namco to handhelds and Square seems to have significant investments in other markets. I think the PS4 will get the same big games the PS3 got, but I think competition is just going to be fierccer for people's time and with how expensive console games are in Japan, their money.

 

[Jamix012]

Are we proposing that the teams are shutting down/dissolving into making more handheld games? Are they all going to stay on PS3 for the next seven years?

More Handheld/iOS games. I could see them staying on the PS3 for up to two years before potentially moving on to creating western-style games or moving to Wii U/PS4 if they're any better by that point. You're also saying that they've got to have some place to go. I don't think it's completely illogical to suggest that some smaller companies would be forced to go Handheld/iOS or go under. Making a PS4 game for a smaller niche company could cost them more than it makes them so if they have nowhere to go they're not exactly going to go to PS4 if it's stillborn.

 

[Nirolak]

Well we've already seen a major shift for Namco to handhelds and Square seems to have significant investments in other markets. I think the PS4 will get the same big games the PS3 got, but I think competition is just going to be fierccer for people's time and with how expensive console games are in Japan, their money.

Well yes, if you want to make the argument to me that handhelds have ate the lunch of consoles, I'm not going to argue with you.

It's of what still exists at the end of the PS3 generation where our current consoles are both selling near life-support levels that I'm asking about.

Let's take Jamix's list.

Obviously some of these series like Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Call of Duty, Pro Evo Soccer, and Resident Evil sell more in the West, so the PS4's performance in Japan isn't as important to determining where sequels go.

Yakuza, Tales, Musou, and NIS have made notable efforts to get onto handhelds, but none have seen the same sales success they get on consoles, which is why they're still there. The One Piece game we're talking about is notably a Musou game.

Monster Hunter and Tokyo Jungle weren't really notable factors on the PS3 in the first place.

Dragon's Dogma (or Deep Down if it's related) would be about as hard to port to handhelds as you get, given one is open world and the other seems to be running an incredibly computationally expensive engine.

Dark Souls has a pretty large Western sales component at this point, and its sequel is currently announced for 360/PS3/PC with Edge calling the graphics "effortlessly next-gen like Watch Dogs and Star Wars 1313", so I'm assuming they're interested in keeping that as a worldwide focused series, even if you can make the argument it isn't a strong one right now. I mean seriously, they even debuted Dark Souls 2 at the Spike VGAs.

That leaves us with Hot Shots Golf, which is Sony's IP.

More Handheld/iOS games. I could see them staying on the PS3 for up to two years before potentially moving on to creating western-style games or moving to Wii U/PS4 if they're any better by that point. You're also saying that they've got to have some place to go. I don't think it's completely illogical to suggest that some smaller companies would be forced to go Handheld/iOS or go under. Making a PS4 game for a smaller niche company could cost them more than it makes them so if they have nowhere to go they're not exactly going to go to PS4 if it's stillborn.

The best example of this is probably tri-Ace, who imploded on consoles and is seemingly no longer able to sign console games.

However, I feel what's currently left is mostly pretty robust or has an incredibly low cost base that doesn't really change with a console because they put in zero more effort.

I mean do you really look at Tales PS3 or Disgaea PS3 and think this is vastly more expensive than what they did on PS2? I can totally see that for Resident Evil, but I mean on the niche developer end of this.

tri-Ace on the other hand (and a few of their contemporaries that slipped into the ether) were making high end console games at one point and couldn't keep up, but really I think almost everyone who fits that mold is honestly dead or has moved already.

I'll note that neither of us have listed Level 5 for example, despite them having made PS3 games, because they could quite possibly fit the tri-Ace mold.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Yes, I think that is very possible. I don't think that is an outlandish thought right now. Of course it depends on what we count as "major".

It will cross streams with the GCN in a few weeks, and the PS3 a few weeks after.

Presumably a turnaround would entail outselling both in the long term.

I'm just not sure why the Wii U would do what the PS3 didn't despite the latter's larger "million seller pedigree" on the PS2. Price, I suppose.

In end I think if Nintendo manages to get a turnaround to happen they will end up comfortably in between Gamecube and PS3.

Between 4M and 7M after 5 years is a pretty large margin.

 

[donny2112]

Are we proposing that the teams are shutting down/dissolving into making more handheld games?

Well we've already seen a major shift for Namco to handhelds and Square seems to have significant investments in other markets.

Square's investments, specifically, seem to be a lot more in iOS/Android, though I haven't followed it too closely. iOS/Android seems to be a popular market in Japan, too, so that is another outlet to find development teams work to bring in revenue for the company. Just like the big handheld games are still on 3DS but some of the smaller ones are absent compared to DS, we may see the big console games still on consoles but some of the smaller ones absent compared to PS3/Wii from third-parties. That is one area where Nintendo is buttressed against, since they make many of the big and many of the smaller ones on their own consoles. A lot of the smaller ones are moving/moved to download on their consoles, though.

 

[Nirolak]

Square's investments, specifically, seem to be a lot more in iOS/Android, though, I haven't followed it too closely. iOS/Android seems to be a popular market in Japan, too, so that is another outlet to find development teams work to bring in revenue for the company. Just like the big handheld games are still on 3DS but some of the smaller ones are absent compared to DS, we may see the big console games still on consoles but some of the smaller ones absent compared to PS3/Wii from third-parties. That is one area where Nintendo is buttressed against, since they make many of the big and many of the smaller ones on their own consoles. A lot of the smaller ones are moving/moved to download on their consoles, though.

I agree on this front, but I think most of this has already happened over the course of this generation.

Let's take Square Enix's Japanese games for example.

Dead console franchises that released on PS3: Star Ocean, Nier, Mindjack
Remaining console franchises that released on PS3: Final Fantasy

They really didn't release much in the first place, so there's not much to lose.

We do have that vampire action RPG game coming for consoles, so I guess they could be back up to two next-gen.

 

[Jamix012]

Well yes, if you want to make the argument to me that handhelds have ate the lunch of consoles, I'm not going to argue with you.

It's of what still exists at the end of the PS3 generation where our current consoles are both selling near life-support levels that I'm asking about.

Let's take Jamix's list.

Obviously some of these series like Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Call of Duty, Pro Evo Soccer, and Resident Evil sell more in the West, so the PS4's performance in Japan isn't as important to determining where sequels go.

Yakuza, Tales, Musou, and NIS have made notable efforts to get onto handhelds, but none have seen the same sales success they get on consoles, which is why they're still there. The One Piece game we're talking about is notably a Musou game.

Monster Hunter and Tokyo Jungle weren't really notable factors on the PS3 in the first place.

Dragon's Dogma (or Deep Down if it's related) would be about as hard to port to handhelds as you get, given one is open world and the other seems to be running an incredibly computationally expensive engine.

Dark Souls has a pretty large Western sales component at this point, and its sequel is currently announced for 360/PS3/PC with Edge calling the graphics "effortlessly next-gen like Watch Dogs and Star Wars 1313", so I'm assuming they're interested in keeping that as a worldwide focused series, even if you can make the argument it isn't a strong one right now. I mean seriously, they even debuted Dark Souls 2 at the Spike VGAs.

That leaves us with Hot Shots Golf, which is Sony's IP.



The best example of this is probably tri-Ace, who imploded on consoles and is seemingly no longer able to sign console games.

However, I feel what's currently left is mostly pretty robust or has an incredibly low cost base that doesn't really change with a console because they put in zero more effort.

I mean do you really look at Tales PS3 or Disgaea PS3 and think this is vastly more expensive than what they did on PS2? I can totally see that for Resident Evil, but I mean on the niche developer end of this.

tri-Ace on the other hand (and a few of their contemporaries that slipped into the ether) were making high end console games at one point and couldn't keep up, but really I think almost everyone who fits that mold is honestly dead or has moved already.

I'll note that neither of us have listed Level 5 for example, despite them having made PS3 games, because they could quite possibly fit the tri-Ace mold.

I guess I'm just of the belief that PS4 will share a similar fate to the Vita in that software won't come initially leading to cancellations and lack of new announcements wheras you seem to beleive that the support will come because they have no where else to go. You've raised a valid point that smaller devs may not have significantly increased costs but with a game like Final Fantasy if costs are significantly increased and the PS4 appears to be tanking in Japan (best case scenario let's assume it's flourishing elsewhere) wouldn't it be wise to make the game more western oriented anyway, which would then further lower the potential sales of such a title in the east (while making it more west-friendly.)
I'm curious as to how you think the Vita failed (perhaps that's a little premature but it's certainly not shining brightly at the moment) given that many of the devs who were on the PSP signed on to the Vita? Or, for that matter, why the WiiU is seemingly floundering even with 2 major franchises and one decently selling new IP? With your answer in mind, why won't the same happen to the PS4?

 

[Nirolak]

I guess I'm just of the belief that PS4 will share a similar fate to the Vita in that software won't come initially leading to cancellations and lack of new announcements wheras you seem to beleive that the support will come because they have no where else to go. You've raised a valid point that smaller devs may not have significantly increased costs but with a game like Final Fantasy if costs are significantly increased and the PS4 appears to be tanking in Japan (best case scenario let's assume it's flourishing elsewhere) wouldn't it be wise to make the game more western oriented anyway, which would then further lower the potential sales of such a title in the east (while making it more west-friendly.)
I'm curious as to how you think the Vita failed (perhaps that's a little premature but it's certainly not shining brightly at the moment) given that many of the devs who were on the PSP signed on to the Vita? Or, for that matter, why the WiiU is seemingly floundering even with 2 major franchises and one decently selling new IP? With your answer in mind, why won't the same happen to the PS4?

Those are fair questions, and I have a few answers for them.

Vita: The Vita never got truly compelling blockbuster software. I would define this as the titles that sold over 500K, which consist of Monster Hunter, major Final Fantasy spin-offs, Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep, Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, Phantasy Star Portable, and God Eater. While the last two are coming, one is an MMO variant and the other is the least successful of all the listed franchises on the platform, coupled with also being on PSP. The 3DS for example did pretty poorly until a notable amount of blockbuster and moderate software showed up in the Fall after its release. Since there are still basically zero blockbusters on the horizon for Vita, there's no reason to believe any will ever come.

Wii U: I feel the Wii U is suffering the exact same problem the 3DS did, in that it has very little relevant software right now. New Super Mario Bros U wasn't a bad start, and it actually caused the launch numbers to be pretty good. However, Monster Hunter was an old game that was already on a significantly more popular platform, and Dragon Quest X is going to be a port of an MMO variant that is also already on a significantly more popular platform. When Nintendo's major hitters start coming in the Fall, I expect the sales of the Wii U to go up notably. I don't expect it to hit the levels of the Wii because it won't have as many blockbuster titles and the titles will appeal to a narrower demographic than the Wii _____ titles ultimately did, but I certainly expect it to go up. However, I'm not convinced that the demographic that Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and Smash Bros appeal to is perceived as the same demographic that buys Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, and Metal Gear Solid, which is why I am doubtful of broad base third party support, since the types of console games they make don't always fit in great with the audience Nintendo builds.

PS4: The biggest PS3 franchises appeal to the West (MGS, FF, RE), which means those series have a notable incentive to go on the PS4/720, since those are the kind of platforms that lead major core game sales in the West. Thus, the PS4 essentially gets a boost in Japan by virtue of the West. Does this guarantee the PS4 is a smash hit? No, but it does suggest that the games will keep appearing on the platform. Once they're on the platform anyway, there's not much reason to not release them locally. Even if the first round of MGS and FF are cross generation, this does not mean that every following entry will be, assuming they intend to keep competing internationally, which will eventually make the PS4 the only place to get them. If we go to the second tier of franchises, we're looking at Musou, Yakuza, Tales, GT, PES, and Dragon's Dogma. A yearly soccer game will always release on home consoles, and GT is Sony's game. We've already seemingly seen a DD successor on the PS4, and Nagoshi has talked up Yakuza for the platform. Musou and Tales, I don't know why, you'll have to ask their audience, but if we look at their historic sales, they do best on Sony home consoles, so I feel there isn't an overwhelming reason to believe they're never coming. Once we have the bigger titles, whatever audience they manage to scrounge up is there to support everything else. Now, do I expect a huge audience for the PS4? Not at all. But I still don't see enough iteration over iteration evidence to suggest all of these franchises are completely falling apart at the seems to the point they can't attract 70-80% of their audience to a new generation, which is why I would expect the PS4 to eventually build up an install base as these games come out.

So, as a recap, I would say that the Vita had zero accessory factors that allowed it to garner the minimum amount of notable software necessary to sustain itself, and thus it collapsed.

The Wii U is doing poorly today, and probably will never hit the heights of its predecessor, but it has notable software in the future, so it should recover in terms of hardware sales even if it doesn't garner notable third party support.

We barely have any PS4 games announced yet, but we already have signs of notable Japanese support from several of the usual suspects, which is vastly more than the Vita could ever say. Will that support guarantee the exact same numbers as PS3? Probably not, but it should guarantee a fair amount of it unless we assume for some reason these franchises suddenly disintegrate. If we get past TGS and it looks like they were all lying and/or there's zero interest in any announced PS4 games, then sure, the system could be the next Vita, but as it stands today, I don't see a reason to believe that.

 

[Jamix012]

Those are fair questions, and I have a few answers for them.

Vita: The Vita never got truly compelling blockbuster software. I would define this as the titles that sold over 500K, which consist of Monster Hunter, major Final Fantasy spin-offs, Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep, Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, Phantasy Star Portable, and God Eater. While the last two are coming, one is an MMO variant and the other is the least successful of all the listed franchises on the platform, coupled with also being on PSP. The 3DS for example did pretty poorly until a notable amount of blockbuster and moderate software showed up in the Fall after its release. Since there are still basically zero blockbusters on the horizon for Vita, there's no reason to believe any will ever come.

Wii U: I feel the Wii U is suffering the exact same problem the 3DS did, in that it has very little relevant software right now. New Super Mario Bros U wasn't a bad start, and it actually caused the launch numbers to be pretty good. However, Monster Hunter was an old game that was already on a significantly more popular platform, and Dragon Quest X is going to be a port of an MMO variant that is also already on a significantly more popular platform. When Nintendo's major hitters start coming in the Fall, I expect the sales of the Wii U to go up notably. I don't expect it to hit the levels of the Wii because it won't have as many blockbuster titles and the titles will appeal to a narrower demographic than the Wii _____ titles ultimately did, but I certainly expect it to go up. However, I'm not convinced that the demographic that Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and Smash Bros appeal to is perceived as the same demographic that buys Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, and Metal Gear Solid, which is why I am doubtful of broad base third party support, since the types of console games they make don't always fit in great with the audience Nintendo builds.

PS4: The biggest PS3 franchises appeal to the West (MGS, FF, RE), which means those series have a notable incentive to go on the PS4/720, since those are the kind of platforms that lead major core game sales in the West. Thus, the PS4 essentially gets a boost in Japan by virtue of the West. Does this guarantee the PS4 is a smash hit? No, but it does suggest that the games will keep appearing on the platform. Once they're on the platform anyway, there's not much reason to not release them locally. Even if the first round of MGS and FF are cross generation, this does not mean that every following entry will be, assuming they intend to keep competing internationally, which will eventually make the PS4 the only place to get them. If we go to the second tier of franchises, we're looking at Musou, Yakuza, Tales, GT, PES, and Dragon's Dogma. A yearly soccer game will always release on home consoles, and GT is Sony's game. We've already seemingly seen a DD successor on the PS4, and Nagoshi has talked up Yakuza for the platform. Musou and Tales, I don't know why, you'll have to ask their audience, but if we look at their historic sales, they do best on Sony home consoles, so I feel there isn't an overwhelming reason to believe they're never coming. Once we have the bigger titles, whatever audience they manage to scrounge up is there to support everything else. Now, do I expect a huge audience for the PS4? Not at all. But I still don't see enough iteration over iteration evidence to suggest all of these franchises are completely falling apart at the seems to the point they can't attract 70-80% of their audience to a new generation, which is why I would expect the PS4 to eventually build up an install base as these games come out.

So, as a recap, I would say that the Vita had zero accessory factors that allowed it to garner the minimum amount of notable software necessary to sustain itself, and thus it collapsed.

The Wii U is doing poorly today, and probably will never hit the heights of its predecessor, but it has notable software in the future, so it should recover in terms of hardware sales even if it doesn't garner notable third party support.

We barely have any PS4 games announced yet, but we already have signs of notable Japanese support from several of the usual suspects, which is vastly more than the Vita could ever say. Will that support guarantee the exact same numbers as PS3? Probably not, but it should guarantee a fair amount of it unless we assume for some reason these franchises suddenly disintegrate. If we get past TGS and it looks like they were all lying and/or there's zero interest in any announced PS4 games, then sure, the system could be the next Vita, but as it stands today, I don't see a reason to believe that.

You raise a lot of interesting points and at this point I am willing to concede that there is the possibility that the PS4 won't completely fail in Japan. It seems though that it hinges upon the PS4 being successful in the west, which I'm not overly convinced with. I'm not going to go into huge detail as to why, but I think Microsoft may be especially agressive in the west with it's pricing and marketing.

On top of that where you see "notable japanese support" I see nothing of the sort. The list of devs is similar to one which was published for the Vita if I recall correctly. Then again, I agree that TGS will be where we see if there really is anything behind the PS4.

Regarding the way Nintendo sets up their WiiU ecosystem I agree, there isn't a massive overlap between Mario/Smash buyers and ResiEvil/FF buyers. That isn't to say, if the Wii U picks up and the PS4 does poorly, that such an ecosystem can't be created. If a game like Monster Hunter can do it on the 3DS I don't see why it can't be done on the Wii U. All it would take is one "mature" major 3rd party game to be WiiU exclusive to open up the door I feel.

I think we still have a major unknown factor, which is price. The PS3 has many of the same hard hitters the PS2 yet and managed only a fraction of the sales. I personally beleive that the handhelds ate a large portion of the market because of the price difference. The PS3 launched at a ludicrous price so people opted for the more attractively priced handhelds. If PS4 is double the price of a 3DS I question how large of a niche would be willing to buy the PS4 given that I feel there is certainly more overlap now than there was in the last generation (IE handhelds are closer to consoles in terms of the experience they can now provide)

 

[Dash Kappei]

Not if Wii U is just getting ports, which from what it looks like will happen.

MHP3rd HD sold 300-400k on PS3. MH Tri G HD disappeared after 100k on Wii U. Not Capcom's largest console franchise.

First: there's a big difference between 300k and 400k (100k difference from 300k, basically ONE THIRD bigger for god's sake!), you just can't group the two figures together.
Second: you shouldn't really throw numbers around like that in sales age especially when teying to prove a point
Third and most important: 400k? Try a tad more than half that. How much more we don't know, but to use your figure of speech the game "disappeared" from the charts when it was yet to reach 200k, on an installed base how many times greater than Wii U's?

 

[Nirolak]

You raise a lot of interesting points and at this point I am willing to concede that there is the possibility that the PS4 won't completely fail in Japan. It seems though that it hinges upon the PS4 being successful in the west, which I'm not overly convinced with.

It doesn't really matter if it's hugely successful in the West because developers are multiplatform and generally release on all the platforms in the same power band for Western audiences.

Yeah, I know, the Wii U isn't getting 360/PS3 ports, but it's also 7-8 years late to that party.

On top of that where you see "notable japanese support" I see nothing of the sort. The list of devs is similar to one which was published for the Vita if I recall correctly. Then again, I agree that TGS will be where we see if there really is anything behind the PS4.

I'm not referring to the list, but their actions. FOX, Luminous, and Panta Rhei are clearly DirectX 11 focused engines targeting high end systems, and serving as the backbone for high end development at Konami, Square Enix, and Capcom.

I'm assuming they didn't spend tons of money making these things just to muse over how nice they look.

Capcom's already announced a notable game for the system, and Square Enix got up on stage to say a Final Fantasy title is unveiling at E3.

Nagoshi put up this interview in Dengeki PlayStation and this one to Polygon, suggesting interest in developing for the platform, and KojiPro has been pretty straight forward about their future in their job postings.

I guess we technically haven't heard from Tecmo Koei or Namco yet, unless I missed something.

Regarding the way Nintendo sets up their WiiU ecosystem I agree, there isn't a massive overlap between Mario/Smash buyers and ResiEvil/FF buyers. That isn't to say, if the Wii U picks up and the PS4 does poorly, that such an ecosystem can't be created. If a game like Monster Hunter can do it on the 3DS I don't see why it can't be done on the Wii U. All it would take is one "mature" major 3rd party game to be WiiU exclusive to open up the door I feel.

Well of course, if every major third party just jumped on the Wii U and supported it with their best offerings, it would be doing great right now. For some reason though, they're not. You would have to ask them why.

I think we still have a major unknown factor, which is price. The PS3 has many of the same hard hitters the PS2 yet and managed only a fraction of the sales. I personally beleive that the handhelds ate a large portion of the market because of the price difference. The PS3 launched at a ludicrous price so people opted for the more attractively priced handhelds. If PS4 is double the price of a 3DS I question how large of a niche would be willing to buy the PS4 given that I feel there is certainly more overlap now than there was in the last generation (IE handhelds are closer to consoles in terms of the experience they can now provide)

I kind of feel the PSP was pretty much already there in terms of offering the experience most Japanese consumers wanted that wasn't on DS already, which is a large part of why the Vita became irrelevant. The Vita couldn't do anything that the 3DS couldn't that was relevant to the handheld market, so now it's floundering.

I would also argue that's why there's so little left on consoles as it is.

Could some of the remaining series' fanbases find handhelds good enough? Maybe, it's hard to say, because many of these games would work fine on PSP as it is anyway.

Why did Revelations sell notably worse than RE:ORC and RE6? You'd have to ask the people who skipped the first and picked up the latter two.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Regarding the way Nintendo sets up their WiiU ecosystem I agree, there isn't a massive overlap between Mario/Smash buyers and ResiEvil/FF buyers. That isn't to say, if the Wii U picks up and the PS4 does poorly, that such an ecosystem can't be created. If a game like Monster Hunter can do it on the 3DS I don't see why it can't be done on the Wii U. All it would take is one "mature" major 3rd party game to be WiiU exclusive to open up the door I feel.

The 3DS has essentially consolidated the entirety of the handheld market in Japan (and abroad).

Do you really think, considering what we're seeing so far, it's remotely plausible for that to occur for the Wii U? Because I find it exceedingly unlikely.

Larger publishers want to sell their games to the world and that means PS4/720, as far as they're concerned.

 

[pieatorium]

Wait, maybe I'm missing something, but why are you using the PS2 number when talking about the PS4?

because thats what the person he is reaponding to did?



mobile site updating super slow seema imm way behind thw convwrsation

 

[Dalthien]

Why did Revelations sell notably worse than RE:ORC and RE6? You'd have to ask the people who skipped the first and picked up the latter two.

I wouldn't call 285k vs. 335k notably worse. And both RE:R and RE:ORC were always going to sell worse than RE6.

We've been through this before, but RE:R sold in line with Capcom's expectations. Worldwide, they always expected much more from ORC, which was reflected in their fiscal projections and in their marketing budgets for each game. Takenaka came out again just two weeks ago and said that they were very happy with the sales of the game for how early it was released on the 3DS.

because thats what the person he is reaponding to did?

Actually, I was showing how carrying over the PS2 successful franchises to the PS3 didn't help the PS3 sell as well as the PS2. So continuing that line of thought, it would make far more sense to talk about carrying over the PS3 successful franchises to the PS4 - not the PS2 successful franchises.

 

[shinra-bansho]

because thats what the person he is reaponding to did?

It wasn't specifically directed towards an individual, but rather the idea/implication in the thread that Nintendo's first party/million sellers/500K+ sellers in themselves provide some sort of guarantee of a major turnaround; when the collective first- and third-party million sellers/500K+ on the PS2 didn't do this for the PS3.

We have the sequel to the best-selling game on the Wii, NSMBWii, out on the Wii U right now. We have what was presumably meant to be the spiritual successor to the second-best selling game out too.

 

[extralite]

Miyazaki's movies look kiddy but it's enjoyed by all ages. It's not targeted for an older group but rather for all age group. The kiddy look doesn't automatically mean it's targeted for younger audience. That's how DQ is.

I don't think it's a good idea to go primary by looks or even say that Miyazaki would look kiddy. That's just gross oversimplification and disregards the factors that actually sold the games: the genre, story and graphical achievement (rather than style).

On the other hand, Hokuto no Ken appeals to teegaers and it's mainly enjoyed by that age group. That's how FF is.

Again, how could FF sell exactly as much as DQ during PS age when FF peaked and DQ came close to its recent peak? There's no indication that there was great variation in audience.

More importantly, when Famitsu prints quotes on games by readers, for example for their reader reviews, I never noticed FF being skewed towards teenagers, there's seemed to be a similar bandwidth of ages as with DQ.

I'm not sure what to disagree with Dragon Quest is the "everyone" series and FF is the "12-22" series

Even Kitase said twenty somethings, which doesn't stop at 22. And until you give a source that indicates that all extra sales DQ gets over FF nowadays actually come from older players and/or that FF has unusually low sales with older players compared to DQ, you're just guessing.

DQ does sometimes have lower age ratings than FF though (recent extreme examples of Type-0 and BD being 15 and up, cutting off 12-14 from the proposed age group) so it is legally possible to sell to age groups in those cases which FF cannot. Doesn't prove anything but is at least based on a quantifiable fact, as opposed to your arguing looks which seems very arbitrary too.

Going by the looks argument, I11 should sell to all ages too (which it does to a degree). I'm pretty sure Pokemon (similar look) gets more older gamer sales, which is just due to absolute numbers. Most of game sales are made in the young core groups, there are always sales outside the core brackets and the DQ one starts lower.

Saying FF is made for teenagers and twenty somethings (which is accurate) puts it in the older shounen to seinen bracket, which is more mature than the Jump shounen segment, leaning more towards kodomo. But even though the themes in Jump are less mature than in Sunday or in a seinen magazine, it just is immensely popular which brings absolute numbers of older recipients up also. It says nothing about who is or is not part of the audience.

Long running series like DQ and FF also have a legacy audience which they can tap into, if it's on their target platform.

If I recall, the Sega Genesis had sold more than the SNES when DQV was announced.

The Sega Saturn had also sold more than the Playstation in Japan when DQVII was announced for the platform. Not to mention the fact that DQVII was announced originally for the N64 before they had any idea how that console war would pan out.

I think that's just something Hori once said in passing that people have taken too far.

From Wikipedia:

1997年1月14日、エニックスは本作の対応機種をプレイステーション（PS）とすることを発表。当時のゲーム雑誌の記事によるとその理由は「最も売れているゲーム機であるから」となっており、同年にプレイステーション用として発売された『ファイナルファンタジーVII』（以下FFVII、開発・発売・販売スクウェア、現スクウェア・エニックス）による直接的な影響は無いとされていた。ただ、「ハードの販売台数として500万台は必要」と発言しており、FFVIIの発売決定により販売台数が急増していたプレイステーションは、同年1月9日に開発・発売・販売元のソニー・コンピュータエンタテインメント（SCE）が国内出荷台数500万台の突破を発表するとすぐにエニックスもPSへの参入を発表、本作の発表はその5日後のことであった。

Basically it says that DQVII was announced for PS on January 14th, 1997, because the PS was the best selling console. An install base of 5 million was deemed necessary for the game and Sony had announced 5 days earlier that the PS had passed 5 million in sales. Also FFVII's release was in the same month on the 31th and though not directly related to the announcement its upcoming release had helped boost PS sales to that necessary point of 5 million.

 

[Laguna]

People still clinging to NSMBU.

It´s because NSMBU will outsell any PS3 and PS4 game.

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

I guess Bayonetta is gone, but it got replaced by Rising which sold even better.

So Nintendos franchises are prone to a decline but the numerous Gundam, Musou etc. games not?

Which of the Japan-targeted franchises that built the PS3 house are expected to transition to the Wii U? Yakuza? Disgaea? Atelier? Ar Tonelico?

Do you even realize how niche and irrelevant to the outcome of the market all these games besides Yakuza actually are?

 

[shinra-bansho]

It´s because NSMBU will outsell any PS3 and PS4 game.

Do you even realize how niche and irrelevant to the outcome of the market all these games besides Yakuza actually are?

It will be interesting to see if your bolded claim holds true. If it continues to sell 5K a week, without further w/w decline, for the next 5 years it will still struggle to reach FFXIII's number. NSMB DS, selling for 6-7 years on a much more successful system than the Wii U will ever be only managed a 2.5x multiplier over its first ten weeks of sales; even taking into account the launch title nature, matching this multiplier would only bring 1.1M, it would need to exceed this multiplier by 60% and sell for just as long.

As for the latter, I was simply listing random franchises, inconsequential as they may be, that have contributed to the flow of software for the PS3. If you want to see what happens in the absence of inconsequential titles to a line up, just look at the Wii U.

 

[donny2112]

If it continues to sell 5K a week, without further w/w decline, for the next 5 years it will still struggle to reach FFXIII's number.

That would be assuming that NSMBU's numbers depend on the game's ability to sell itself and not on the idea that it's a staple/evergreen game for Wii U. If it's a staple title to get with the system for new buyers, which I believe it is as so many Wii games were this past gen, as the Wii U's sales change (e.g. go up) NSMBU's sales will likewise change with it (e.g. go up).

That's something discussed a few times in the NPD threads a few years ago. The Mario Kart Wii, Wii Play, Wii Fit's that kept selling each month in NPD weren't being bought by the people who had a Wii since launch, since they wouldn't keep buying the same games again and again. They were bought by people who bought a Wii, and then bought the "staple" games along with it. Maybe they bought the Wii to have access to the "staple" game(s) in the first place, but there seemed to be just the idea that if you got a Wii, then you needed to get this, this, this, etc. game with it, if not right away then when ready for more games. Nintendo called them "evergreens", but I think "staple" games is a more apt term.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I think PS4 can have an excellent launch in Japan if

1) the price is under 30k
2) is able to have these games in the launch window (6 months):

Versus may be a cross gen bit do not think the former titles will be.
Sony need to make sure the Third parties are ready for next gen transition as their first party cannot carry the system by itself.

Maybe we will get those titles in the first year but then we might have another WiiU situation.
Its hard to speculate though because the system has not even been full revealed.

 

[shinra-bansho]

That would be assuming that NSMBU's numbers depend on the game's ability to sell itself and not on the idea that it's a staple/evergreen game for Wii U. If it's a staple title to get with the system for new buyers, which I believe it is as so many Wii games were this past gen, as the Wii U's sales change (i.e. go up) NSMBU's sales will likewise change with it (i.e. go up).

That's something discussed a few times in the NPD threads a few years ago. The Mario Kart Wii, Wii Play, Wii Fit's that kept selling each month in NPD weren't being bought by the people who had a Wii since launch, since they wouldn't keep buying the same games again and again. They were bought by people who bought a Wii, and then bought the "staple" games along with it. Maybe they bought the Wii to have access to the "staple" game(s) in the first place, but there seemed to be just the idea that if you got a Wii, then you needed to get this, this, this, etc. game with it, if not right away then when ready for more games. Nintendo called them "evergreens", but I think "staple" games is a more apt term.

I edited above.

Even as an evergreen title, NSMBU would need to exceed the multipliers of it's predecessors considerably. Even given it's launch status, that's really not guaranteed.

In order to reach parity with the 1.9M FFXIII achieved it would need a first ten week -> lifetime multiplier would in fact exceed Wii Sports. A prospect I find somewhat unlikely.

 

[Celestial]

It´s because NSMBU will outsell any PS3 and PS4 game.

You are talking about a console that was announced before 2 weeks.You and i either dont know anything about it's games.We dont even know all the things about the system let alone it's games.Unless you are coming from the future you cant be sounding so sure.

Lets first wait for it to pass FFXIII.

 

[donny2112]

In order to reach parity with the 1.9M FFXIII achieved it would need a first ten week -> lifetime multiplier would in fact exceed Wii Sports.

Nintendo wouldn't let New Super Mario Bros. U languish at a 1.1m level, unless they put out a sequel. They'd be packing it in with the system before allowing that to happen, I think. I still think it'll go up recognizably, if not completely proportionately, when Wii U sales pick up, but if it didn't, I could see Nintendo packing it in with the system as part of a "value add" that'd also push it higher than that, too.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Nintendo wouldn't let New Super Mario Bros. U languish at a 1.1m level, unless they put out a sequel. They'd be packing it in with the system before allowing that to happen, I think. I still think it'll go up recognizably, if not completely proportionately, when Wii U sales pick up, but if it didn't, I could see Nintendo packing it in with the system as part of a "value add" that'd also push it higher than that, too.

I could see it eventually bundled in for free; so perhaps in that way it would end up surpassing FFXIII.

Do garaph numbers include bundling? I thought I'd see if there are any console games that achieved a >4x multiplier LTD over their first ten week total.

 

[extralite]

So the PS3 basically lost Dragon Quest - and nothing else of relevance. Monster Hunter basically shifted portable in its popularity (but PS3 still got an HD update of the most popular game in the series), but it was never very big on the PS2 anyway, so that didn't affect the PS3 at all.

Why are you downplaying the loss of MH? From Garaph:

PS2 2004-03-11 1825 Monster Hunter Capcom 6800 288,559
PS2 2006-02-16 2386 Monster Hunter 2 Capcom 7329 570,651
Wii 2009-08-01 3647 Monster Hunter 3 Capcom 7340 1,070,743

It certainly is in league with some of the PS3's remaining bigger franchises, comparable to Tales and RE. Another 500k+ or maybe even million seller would have helped the PS3, wouldn't it? Also it would have left the competition without its 3rd party million seller, not that unimportant either.

Also the more crucial implication of the loss of MH was what happened with the Vita. If Capcom had continued to associate the franchise firmly with Playstation both on handhelds and consoles the shift to 3DS would have been less likely. Instead MH3 for Wii foreshadowed MH3G and MH4 for 3DS.

Edit: The assets of a hypothetical MH3 for PS3 could have been used for Vita. Instead the similar architecture of 3DS and Wii made the port of MH3G so easy.

Edit2: 3rd HD isn't an update. It's basically emulated, with minimal porting effort.

 

[Laguna]

You are talking about a console that was announced before 2 weeks.You and i either dont know anything about it's games.We dont even know all the things about the system let alone it's games.Unless you are coming from the future you cant be sounding so sure.

Lets first wait for it to pass FFXIII.

I don´t think you need specific announcement to make an educated guess about the probability of million-selling games on PS4 in Japan, most games that reached that benchmark on PS2 decreased by a very big margin on PS3 and in my opinion it is very unlikely that it will change on PS4. Of course you can hope that a new IP becomes very popular but this remindsme of the hopes and dreams that PSV fans had last year when the system lost MH.

Of course it will take some time for NSMBU but that has more to do with the current software situation and delays because right now it´s the only game available that can be considered a system seller in Japan and that is actually holding back its potential. Looking back at its predecessors these games had always sales spikes on Golden Week and other holiday periods, there is no reason to think that this one will be an exception.

Taking a look at the data, we see that no game other than FF13 sold more than 1milion on PS3 and that´s why I´m convinced that by the end of the year NSMBU likely will be already around the 900k mark, which means it will already or at the very least close to have outsold any PS3 game that was released in its 7 years, with the exception of FF13 and to be honest it´s only a matter of time that also this game will be surpassed. Regarding PS4 in my opinion there is no already established IP that could reach 1m in PS4 first 3 years, besides FF which also seems to have declined a lot in the past years. So it´s a sure bet imo that NSMBU won´t have a real problem selling more.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

double post (>.<)

 

[extralite]

I think PS4 can have an excellent launch in Japan if

1) the price is under 30k
2) is able to have these games in the launch window (6 months):

Versus may be a cross gen bit do not think the former titles will be.
Sony need to make sure the Third parties are ready for next gen transition as their first party cannot carry the system by itself.

Maybe we will get those titles in the first year but then we might have another WiiU situation.
Its hard to speculate though because the system has not even been full revealed.

I actually agree with this but it is just wishful thinking. It is more likely that it will be 40000 yen (already confirmed by the Japanese press to cost at least as much) and have to compete with a cheaper Wii U (maybe with price cut) and several titles for Wii U that have better sales potential than anything the PS4 will ever get outside of maybe FF. None of which they'll have for the launch.

 

[metalslimer]

On NSMBU, isn't there the chance the game doesn't see a major increase with other big software releases as it will actually have competition? I've made the comparison before, but NSMB2 just outsold FF13 with the 3DS having an install base of 10 million, and there is no real sign right now that the Wii U has any chance of reaching 10 million as that would be the most amazing recovery in history. Then again, there is the chance that no PS4 game comes close to FF13's sales, and there is also the chance of bundling as donny said.

 

[BriBri]

On NSMBU, isn't there the chance the game doesn't see a major increase with other big software releases as it will actually have competition? I've made the comparison before, but NSMB2 just outsold FF13 with the 3DS having an install base of 10 million, and there is no real sign right now that the Wii U has any chance of reaching 10 million as that would be the most amazing recovery in history. Then again, there is the chance that no PS4 game comes close to FF13's sales, and there is also the chance of bundling as donny said.

How will the bundled copies be counted if the games pre-loaded onto the system (which I believe they should do with NSMBU this Christmas along with a price-cut)?

 

[Alrus]

How will the bundled copies be counted if the games pre-loaded onto the system (which I believe they should do with NSMBU this Christmas along with a price-cut)?

I believe Famitsu tracks pre-loaded software, but mc doesn't. As shown by the MH3G 3DS XL bundle iirc.

 

[shinra-bansho]

On NSMBU, isn't there the chance the game doesn't see a major increase with other big software releases as it will actually have competition? I've made the comparison before, but NSMB2 just outsold FF13 with the 3DS having an install base of 10 million, and there is no real sign right now that the Wii U has any chance of reaching 10 million as that would be the most amazing recovery in history. Then again, there is the chance that no PS4 game comes close to FF13's sales, and there is also the chance of bundling as donny said.

Setting aside bundling for the moment, if hardware sales do increase later due to other software I don't really see why that tide would also necessarily lift NSMBU to the same degree. I'd imagine its attach rate would actually fall if other drivers were moving hardware more.

Here are the multipliers for the top eight best selling games on the Wii (known LTD/first 10 weeks):

• New Super Mario Bros Wii - 1.38
• Wii Sports - 3.84
• Mario Kart Wii - 2.40
• Wii Fit - 2.71
• Wii Sports Resort - 2.94
• Wii Play - 3.40
• Wii Party - 2.65
• Wii Fit Plus - 2.35
• Super Smash Bros Brawl - 1.33
• Mario Party 8 - 1.69

New Super Mario Bros U, ten weeks = 469K
Final Fantasy XIII, LTD = 1904K
Multiplier to reach = 4.06

Again, I really can't see a title selling over 4x more than its first ten weeks, because it would as far as I can find be largely unprecedented. It would essentially have to match, and perhaps exceed, Wii Sports.

EDIT: Unless they ultimately just give it away with the system at least.

 

[grimshawish]

NSMBU could be bundled soon and its a game people will pick up over time. We'll see how it does but selling 5k mkst of tthe time strikes ne as rather unlikely.

 

[schuelma]

It will cross streams with the GCN in a few weeks, and the PS3 a few weeks after.

Presumably a turnaround would entail outselling both in the long term.

I'm just not sure why the Wii U would do what the PS3 didn't despite the latter's larger "million seller pedigree" on the PS2. Price, I suppose.Between 4M and 7M after 5 years is a pretty large margin.

So I assume you are predicting the Wii U to sell less than 4 million in Japan?

 

[Road]

Setting aside bundling for the moment, if hardware sales do increase later due to other software I don't really see why that tide would also necessarily lift NSMBU to the same degree. I'd imagine its attach rate would actually fall if other drivers were moving hardware more.

Here are the multipliers for the top eight best selling games on the Wii (known LTD/first 10 weeks):

• New Super Mario Bros Wii - 1.38
• Wii Sports - 3.84
• Mario Kart Wii - 2.40
• Wii Fit - 2.71
• Wii Sports Resort - 2.94
• Wii Play - 3.40
• Wii Party - 2.65
• Wii Fit Plus - 2.35
• Super Smash Bros Brawl - 1.33
• Mario Party 8 - 1.69

New Super Mario Bros U, ten weeks = 469K
Final Fantasy XIII, LTD = 1904K
Multiplier to reach = 4.06

Again, I really can't see a title selling over 4x more than its first ten weeks, because it would as far as I can find be largely unprecedented. It would essentially have to match, and perhaps exceed, Wii Sports.

EDIT: Unless they ultimately just give it away with the system at least.

At this point it isn't even keeping the pace of SM64 anymore:

We have to consider the first weeks are likely higher too, considering what Famitsu published for the 1996 total later on.

SM64 went on to sell 1.64m according to Famitsu. Nintendo says they shipped 1.92 million copies of the game and 5.54 million units of the N64, which gives an attach rate of ~35%. MK64 was even more impressive with 2.24m shipped, or ~40%.

NSMBWii was not a lunch game but still managed to achieve a similar attach rate of ~36%.

I've said in the past that I think Wii U is headed in the N64 direction rather than GC. It is not a big difference in absolute numbers 1.5 million units, but it is 37% better in hardware and 44% better in software sales. It would also be the difference between NSMBU outselling FFXIII or not (assuming it keeps the 35~40% attach rate). =P

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Man reading this thread can be depressing. Some people sound sure that console gaming is done.

 

[Aostia]

Man reading this thread can be depressing. Some people sound sure that console gaming is done.

nah, primarly Nintendo console gaming is done. Sony one will be healthier than this/last gen (PS3), imho.
on the portable side, probably the opposite (with the DS peak impossible to be repeated, but you know what I mean)

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

nah, primarly Nintendo console gaming is done. Sony one will be healthier than this/last gen (PS3), imho.
on the portable side, probably the opposite (with the DS peak impossible to be repeated, but you know what I mean)

Actually I have a theory that 10 year's from now we may have a vita like device that packs enough tech and power that it leterally allows you to play games anywhere, and at home there is a dock for it that will charge it and output video to your tv. That could be the future of "home" consoles. Provided they can get the power and performance components to decrease in size.

 

[metalslimer]

Actually I have a theory that 10 year's from now we may have a vita like device that packs enough tech and power that it leterally allows you to play games anywhere, and at home there is a dock for it that will charge it and output video to your tv. That could be the future of "home" consoles. Provided they can get the power and performance components to decrease in size.

This all depends on what your definition of powerful enough is. Some people think Vita's power is perfectly acceptable so they could literally add an HDMI out and it would be that. No matter how powerful the device is though it will still lag non portable hardware, so you have to make a decision as to what is good enough for customers.

People aren't willing to accept the idea that this is an issue affecting primarily Nintendo, that's what it comes down to. For some Nintendo can do no wrong so it has to be an industry wide issue.

In the west, it primarily seems be a Nintendo issue as to why Wii U is failing so hard, but there's really nothing to suggest Japan is going to completely change course and embrace the PS4 more than the PS3.

 

[airmangataosenai]

nah, primarly Nintendo console gaming is done. Sony one will be healthier than this/last gen (PS3), imho.
on the portable side, probably the opposite (with the DS peak impossible to be repeated, but you know what I mean)

People aren't willing to accept the idea that this is an issue affecting primarily Nintendo, that's what it comes down to. For some Nintendo can do no wrong so it has to be an industry wide issue.

If it was something all companies had to face then Wii U would still have lower than Wii sales, but those sales would be above the PS3.