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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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PaintTinJr

Member
The judge is likely to have a more favorable stance towards the FTC as a fellow government authority protesting a company, compared to a random group of civilians lodging a complaint. I do believe someone even pointed out that it's virtually in writing that this would be the likely case. The FTC is also certainly going to bring the judgements and reasoning of the CMA into the matter, as well. The FTC might even attempt to further vilify MS with its supposed push to close the deal regardless of the CMA and FTC. Which apparently just happened as I type this. Even further, the EC openly agreeing with the FTC and CMA over cloud concerns, even though they opted for behavioral remedies.
I was going on the thought process, that where the government could be making a mistake, and a judge blindly siding with them would make it their own mistake too, the Gamer's lawsuit gives corroboration that it is less likely that the FTC are making a mistake, than they are, giving the backdrop that when an independent herd mentality is against a direction of travel, they are correct 99.9% of the time.
 
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Varteras

Member
I was going on the thought process, that where the government could be making a mistake, and a judge blindly siding with them would make it their own mistake too, the Gamer's lawsuit gives corroboration that it is less likely that the FTC are making a mistake, than they are, giving the backdrop that when an independent herd mentality is against that direction, they are 99.9% correct.

I pretty much get what you're saying. When enough people tell you what the problem is, maybe that is the problem after all? When the EC, CMA, FTC, and even a group of civilians said they were concerned, maybe there is a good reason for it? In the case of this judge, wouldn't it be the third time she's hearing about this?
 
Increasingly desperate pressure tactics. I imagine preliminary talks about extending the deal is not going well.
It's extremely unlikely that there was ever a scenario where ABK would be willing to extend the deal, knowing they are facing this much resistance from regulators.
 
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They would take us back in a heartbeat IMO, with all the same benefits in light of us arguably being the biggest contributor of 28 nations to the block, when factoring in our defence spending that the US appreciated and attributed as an EU contribution IIRC.

Money talks, and that gravy train is expensive to run.
Doubtful. The UK was the only major EU nation that was able to keep their own currency. Attempting re-entry to the EU now would most likely result in the UK being forced to adopt the Euro. The UK will not accept those terms, and then they would spend the next 20 years fighting about it. There is no scenario where the UK could just waltz back into the EU exactly as they were when they left, as non-participants in the Euro and the Schengen Area.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Simply can not understand how you would defend the inclusion of a termination date in this contract. Neither company has at risk of any loss, MS is MS and ABK pumps billions every year. There’s no risk to either of these companies at the moment, so what if regulators only cleared it at the end of 2023?
 

ToadMan

Member
I'm not sure who between Microsoft and the FTC was asking for this kind of resolution from the judge here:



It was MS who made the request to expedite.

They wanted more court time because of the amount of expert testimony the FTC are bringing, they wanted the days added on so that all the expert testimony could be covered and they wanted to start tomorrow with Case Management.

So MS wanted hearing for 5 days from the 22nd. What they got is 4 split days ending June 29.

The judge is unavailable until next week so unless she’ll change plans that MS request was never gonna happen.

Now, how long will it take the judge to deliberate and give a ruling after the 29 June?
 
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Varteras

Member
Doubtful. The UK was the only major EU nation that was able to keep their own currency. Attempting re-entry to the EU now would most likely result in the UK being forced to adopt the Euro. The UK will not accept those terms, and then they would spend the next 20 years fighting about it. There is no scenario where the UK could just waltz back into the EU exactly as they were when they left, as non-participants in the Euro and the Schengen Area.

I also don't know that Germany, France, and Italy would be thrilled of the idea of a country that rivals their power and influence coming back in. Certainly not after they showed significant dissent towards the EU once before. To the point of leaving. The UK also showed quite a contrast in viewpoint with the war in Ukraine compared to those three.
 
From the NY Post article from last November, things didn't seem to be going all that well behind the scenes between Microsoft and Activision though ...

"Some insiders and analysts have said that Microsoft — which has enjoyed a better relationship with regulators in recent years compared to rivals like Meta and Google — likely did not expect this level of scrutiny from authorities. The increasing pressure has left the companies at odds behind the scenes, sources close to the situation said, even as Activision and Microsoft are publicly putting on brave faces and insisting the deal will go through." (Source)

And sure, we could just dismiss the NY Post article as just tabloid rumor mill, but guess who granted an interview with the NY Post just last month? Kotick interview with NY Post
Makes one wonder then, just who were the sources for the November article with the NY Post that leaked the alleged tensions between Microsoft and Activision?
From day -1, the point of acquiring ABK was to deny content to Playstation. The people arguing otherwise in this thread were lunatics. Everyone and their mother knew that's what it was about. The fact that MS was never willing to offer perpetual access to ABK content to Sony, even when faced with the possibility of this deal failing to close, is very telling. MS would rather fail to acquire than allow Playstation to have CoD and other ABK content in perpetuity. That's been the whole point since day -154.
 
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ToadMan

Member
From day -1, the point of acquiring ABK was to deny content to Playstation. The people arguing otherwise in this thread were lunatics. Everyone and their mother knew that's what it was about. The fact that MS was never willing to offer perpetual access to ABK content to Sony, even when faced with the possibility of this deal failing to close, is very telling. MS would rather fail to acquire than allow Playstation to have CoD and other ABK content in perpetuity. That's been the whole point since day -154.

It’s all about the cloud! The UK loves clouds as much as Tea - probably why it likes to keep so many of them overhead all the time.

But now, this injunction firmly puts console competition back on the table.

Will we get Jim making an appearance - where’s Lulu at? He needs his personal tweeter on hand.

And I can’t wait to see MS’s pie chart for the US market.
 

Astray

Member
Simply can not understand how you would defend the inclusion of a termination date in this contract. Neither company has at risk of any loss, MS is MS and ABK pumps billions every year. There’s no risk to either of these companies at the moment, so what if regulators only cleared it at the end of 2023?
Part of the merger agreement forbids Activision from striking any significant deals (meaning things like COD or Diablo marketing deals, deals with Nvidia etc).

This is an untenable position for Activision to be locked into for eternity, because it fucks with their ability to market their games properly and deliver value for shareholders (ex. Nintendo is gonna announce a switch successor any day now and are probably lining up their deals and launch slate for example, huge opportunity that Activision can't even get into talks for right now.).

Hence the reason why any merger agreement includes an expiration date and a break-up fee to compensate Activision for lost business opportunities. This deal has multiple set extension options, each with their own economic penalty in case the deal doesn't close.

If the FTC sinks this deal, it won't be because of the mere existence of the expiration date, it's gonna be because they foolishly thought they could finish up the rest of the regulators, and then just close over its objections.

Well that plan is kinda fucked and they will have to improvise a bit and see where they land.
 

mansoor1980

Gold Member
mansoor1980 mansoor1980
You know what to do now right?
phil-spencer.gif
 

NickFire

Member
Simply can not understand how you would defend the inclusion of a termination date in this contract. Neither company has at risk of any loss, MS is MS and ABK pumps billions every year. There’s no risk to either of these companies at the moment, so what if regulators only cleared it at the end of 2023?
Activision could never justify not having one. They have a lot of relationships and opportunities that can be impacted during these years. MS probably has business reasons too that I’m too tired to try thinking of.
 

feynoob

Banned
Simply can not understand how you would defend the inclusion of a termination date in this contract. Neither company has at risk of any loss, MS is MS and ABK pumps billions every year. There’s no risk to either of these companies at the moment, so what if regulators only cleared it at the end of 2023?
Everything has a deadline.
Incase of activision, they have a deadline for COD marketing with Sony. That marketing deal brings them alot of money.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
You all are right, I take the L. Closed would mean that activision is part of Microsoft, it's not the same as approved, you are right.

I don't think that Microsoft would close over the CMA..but I guess the FTC don't want to risk, which seems unfortunate because this might give Microsoft a better chance to win this.


Great gif lol
My quote is pre-CMA block. Where everyone was sure that the console SLC being dropped meant an easy pass.
 

Kilau

Member
Microsoft is right to ask for more than two days. Something this big with this much to go over shouldn't be decided in a mere two days. She granted them four. One less than they asked for.
I would like to know if this a standard thing or if this is something not normally or ever done for a preliminary injunction hearing.
 

IFireflyl

Gold Member
Judge granting what MS asked for and turning this hearing into a litigation of the deal and FTC overall case is a potential sign of which way she’s leaning.

I don't think that's fair. It's the whole "innocent until proven guilty" bit. The entity being sued should, realistically, always be sided with unless and until evidence is presented that proves their guilt or culpability.
 

Raven77

Member
Mate, the CMA has literally blocked MS and Activision from participating in any such deal for the next 10 years.

So why is MS still pushing this forward? Why did the EU approve it after the CMA rejected it? Basically what you're saying is these global companies and nation state organizations are just...wasting their time and money? Strange take.

Here's your answer: The CMA decision can be altered and/or challenged legally regarding it's effect on the merger.

Remind me: 364 days
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
I'm really behind this case now.

I'm spending way too much time day-dreaming about Final Fantasy XVI instead of catching up on the latest acquisition developments.

Every time I visit this thread, there's something new happening that I've no idea about 😞
Same, except instead of Final Fantasy, it's Starfield. I'm trying to wait for July 18th. Either we will see a renegotiation before then or we will see the parties walk away around that date.
 

Ronin_7

Member
It was MS who made the request to expedite.

They wanted more court time because of the amount of expert testimony the FTC are bringing, they wanted the days added on so that all the expert testimony could be covered and they wanted to start tomorrow with Case Management.

So MS wanted hearing for 5 days from the 22nd. What they got is 4 split days ending June 29.

The judge is unavailable until next week so unless she’ll change plans that MS request was never gonna happen.

Now, how long will it take the judge to deliberate and give a ruling after the 29 June?
I don't think anyone has a god damn ides 🤣
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Same, except instead of Final Fantasy, it's Starfield. I'm trying to wait for July 18th. Either we will see a renegotiation before then or we will see the parties walk away around that date.
I'm in the same zone right now. The thing has swung like a pendulum for almost one and a half years. It was fun, but now it has all come down to the renegotiation, as many of us expected.

I also think that FTC filed the injunction very timely because of that. July 18 is the last date for the renegotiation, so obviously, MS/ABK had to sit down before that -- which would be just about now. Hence, why the FTC filed the injunction, which would make the ongoing renegotiation more difficult for MS/ABK.
 

Helghan

Member
Judge granting what MS asked for and turning this hearing into a litigation of the deal and FTC overall case is a potential sign of which way she’s leaning.
Or she is just trying to be fair, which a judge should be. She analysed the request, and thought it was indeed necessary to give them some extra days. I don't think she's already leaning in a direction, although I at least hope that's not the case.
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
Era is on fire and take this deal as done. Or they are wrong or us.
I kindly remind everyone that the main roadblock for the deal is not FTC but CMA. A few changes in USA court due diligence won’t change the fact that CAT will make a decision only after the deadline and there’s a 99% chance that even if MS will somehow prove something to the CAT, CMA will end up with the same decision but with corrected arguments. And it will take many months.

Thing is, almost all key regulators scrutinized the deal, the difference being that EC accepted the remedies and FTC/CMA has not. And even if FTC loses in the initial hearings, I’m sure they will drag on with appeals for an eternity. Brits will block this deal regardless, thanks to the idiotic MS tactics to poke the CMA for the sake of poking.

Pure IMO, of course, but the deal was dead back in April and cheerleading around it runs on refined pure hopium ever since.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I kindly remind everyone that the main roadblock for the deal is not FTC but CMA. A few changes in USA court due diligence won’t change the fact that CAT will make a decision only after the deadline and there’s a 99% chance that even if MS will somehow prove something to the CAT, CMA will end up with the same decision but with corrected arguments. And it will take many months.

Thing is, almost all key regulators scrutinized the deal, the difference being that EC accepted the remedies and FTC/CMA has not. And even if FTC loses in the initial hearings, I’m sure they will drag on with appeals for an eternity. Brits will block this deal regardless, thanks to the idiotic MS tactics to poke the CMA for the sake of poking.

Pure IMO, of course, but the deal was dead back in April and cheerleading around it runs on refined pure hopium ever since.
True. The CMA decision has made it mandatory for MS and ABK to renegotiation if they want to continue - which is already a difficult thing to do. I think FTC just filed the injunction to make it even more difficult to have that renegotiation.
 

Helghan

Member
I kindly remind everyone that the main roadblock for the deal is not FTC but CMA. A few changes in USA court due diligence won’t change the fact that CAT will make a decision only after the deadline and there’s a 99% chance that even if MS will somehow prove something to the CAT, CMA will end up with the same decision but with corrected arguments. And it will take many months.

Thing is, almost all key regulators scrutinized the deal, the difference being that EC accepted the remedies and FTC/CMA has not. And even if FTC loses in the initial hearings, I’m sure they will drag on with appeals for an eternity. Brits will block this deal regardless, thanks to the idiotic MS tactics to poke the CMA for the sake of poking.

Pure IMO, of course, but the deal was dead back in April and cheerleading around it runs on refined pure hopium ever since.
If CMA is the only one blocking it, I'm pretty sure Microsoft will just circumvent it, in a way. How I don't know, that's for the lawyers, but they are not going to let a single market block it for the rest of the world.
 

Helghan

Member
Thing is, so does Microsoft. It won’t be the first and the last deal between two US entities that was effectively destroyed by CMA.
Depends on how important they find the UK market for whatever possible remedies there are to resolve this situation. There are solutions, none of them are beneficial to Microsoft, but maybe the upside of having ABK is more important.
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
Depends on how important they find the UK market
It’s literally the second biggest market for Xbox and a significant market for Activision. Not even talking about the fact that Rare and Playground are UK-based internal teams with crucial franchises. At this point, it’s not worth it for both parties and it’s cheaper to go their separate way after the deadline.
 
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