thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
ZehDon
DenchDeckard
particularly, since you two are having a difficult time understanding easy data and extrapolative estimates...If you want sources that have been used to ascertain where Series X & S have been tracking relative XBO, you don't have to turn that far. I can ignore the arguments for weight of US/UK/Europe/ROTW in share of system sales; since the question is just about if Series have been tracking behind XBO or not, we can stick with global.
Ampere put out a report in early 2016 stating Xbox One had sold around 19.5 million units (I'm having a REALLY difficult time finding the damn link because Google doesn't want to push any links more than a year old and Ampere's own archived pages seem like they aren't in the algorithm, but I have definitely read the report and verified that number in the same report). Similarly, we also have this report from the same time frame that 18 million Xbox Ones had been "activated" by January 2016. Assuming that Microsoft counts sell-in (to retailers) as sold systems, but that the units which were actually logged as "activated" were consumer systems in people's homes, then we can say the sold-in rate of Xbox Ones by January 2016 was 19.5 million, but the sold-through rate was closer to 18 million.
In other words, Ampere was most likely providing the sold-in rate, which is already helpful since Microsoft don't even do that themselves anymore. But sold-in is not sold-through, and the only indication of "sold-through" Xboxes at the January 2016 point is the "activated" metric since that falls in line with MS's MAUs that they began pushing around this time.
And now, we can turn to both the most recent Ampere Analysis report and Brad Smith's own presentation to EC regulators at the press conference a couple weeks ago, because the likely actual truth of Xbox Series sales numbers is somewhere between the numbers of these two. Again, and I mentioned this to
Heisenberg007
a while back, but I personally think Ampere's numbers in their recent report for Xbox are sold-in for Xbox Series by end of 2022; the reason I believe this is because of Brad Smith's own presentation to EC regulators but FWIW, Ampere's PS5 numbers in the report were sold-through. However as you'll see in a bit, I don't completely shut the idea of my own belief being wrong, though if so it could be indicative of something else....In his presentation to EC regulators, Microsoft President Brad Smith used charts sourcing IDG. Among these charts was one showing MS's claimed global deficit to PlayStation. In fact, here is Brad Smith's direct quote (keep in mind, this is based off his source, IDG, but keep the context of that and who he is speaking with/presenting to in mind):
*Note: The specific part stating the 69/31 seems to be a generalized summary by GI.biz about info presented by Microsoft at the conference. However, the 70/30 was in Brad Smith's charts as part of his presentation.
We can tell he is specifically referring to unit sales here, because he references Sony's supply chain problems. Well, Sony didn't have supply chain issues with software, did they? 3P publishers didn't, either. Any reference to things like "supply chain issues" in the console gaming market are almost always about hardware, so these numbers are about unit sales.
Also worth figuring out is if Brad Smith is alluding to "simply last year" for his last point or if that ratio is referring to a cumulative unit difference. Again, his wording suggests this is cumulative, otherwise there's no need to refer to the numbers being "remarkably steady" for two decades. The only thing up in the air is if they are factoring all Xbox and all PlayStation console generations in this; for sake of simplicity and since Microsoft's focus of the acquisition is to act as a repair on mistakes from the XBO generation, we're just going to assume he's referring to the past 10 years, or the 8th and 9th gen consoles from MS and Sony, respectively. Which is likely the only consoles in this discussion regulators care about, anyway.
By August 2022, PS4 officially reached 117.2 million. These are the last numbers Sony have provided; PS4 will still be selling more, but in very small amounts and only in specific markets like Japan. PS5 sold-through numbers reached 30 million by end of 2022. In total, PS4 & PS5 had an install base of 147.2 million units. Microsoft, via Brad Smith, effectively presented to EC regulators the argument that Sony had 69% of total console install base between it and Xbox, leaving Xbox with 31%, by end of 2022. Again, we have to make a few slight liberties and assume some things with most logical conclusions, but he did give those percentages.
This would mean that combined, Xbox One and Xbox Series by end of 2022 were at 66.13 million units. Also keep in mind, Brad Smith decided to use IDG's information for this presentation, so you have to consider the possibility of one of these scenarios being the most likely:
1: Brad Smith openly lied to regulators and present press at the EC presentation by sourcing numbers they knew were incorrect
2: Ampere Analysts' numbers for Xbox Series sold by end of 2022 are wrong (overly bullish) if referring to sold-through
Of those two, the 1st being true is a much more serious offense and could possibly be a criminal one, in all likelihood. Yes, the conference wasn't a courtroom, but the assumption is that companies are going to argue in good faith and use accurate data for something regulatory bodies are deciding on at this scale, which requires authenticity of data in order to work, at ALL stages. I do not think Brad Smith is neither this shady nor this stupid, though, so I would say his source was accurate for his data.
This then means that Ampere's Xbox numbers in their latest report are either just wrong (if referring to sold-through) or accurate if referring to sold-in. There IS another means where they can both be sold-through and correct, though, assuming IDG's numbers are true (since Brad Smith used their data): Xbox One sold-through sales are less than 50 million, which would refute quite a few of the analysis pieces put out on that subject the past year or so. Xbox One sales are always said to be "around" 50 million, but that could have always been
sold-in rates. If we go back to the Xbox One info I shared early on, the difference between the 19.5 million and 18 million was roughly around 7.7%.
If that were applied to Ampere's numbers in the latest sales analysis for the Xbox numbers, and assuming the 18.5 million was sold-in, then sold-through would be around 17.07 million units. There are reasons to find that figure believable, but I want to show an alternative, and this is just going with IDG's numbers and the assumption that XBO has done right around 50 million LTD. Removing XBO from that would leave 16.13 million for Xbox Series as of end of 2022. If you think that's too low, and want to believe something like 17.07 million (taken as a similar percentage difference of sold-through/sold-in as seemingly arrived at for Xbox One by its 26th month on the market), then you have to reduce XBO's sold-through amount by 1 million (or just about). If you then want to take Ampere's 18.5 million numbers as sold-through, again while ALSO keeping in mind Brad Smith's own EC presentation, the numbers provided there, and the likely context of them...then you have to reduce XBO's LTD down even further, by almost another 1.5 million, to make room for the 18.5 million to be sold-through.
Therefore, these are your choices:
1: XB Series @ 18.5 million sold-through EY 2022 = 47.63 million XBO LTD (favors Ampere results for sold-through, acknowledges Brad Smith presentation & IDG sources)
2: XB Series @ 17.07 million sold-through EY 2022 = 49.06 million XBO LTD (favors Ampere results for sold-in, acknowledges Brad Smith presentation & IDG sources)
3: XB Series @ 16.13 million sold-through EY 2022 = 50 million XBO LTD (favors Brad Smith presentation & IDG sources, acknowledges Ampere results for sold-in)
When you're trying to figure out certain data from a surprisingly cagey company, you don't get to pick & choose your sources. That much is true. But you also have to do your best to find a way for all otherwise seemingly valid sources to work together. That may involve some compromises in how you view select things, just as long as nothing veers off-course it should be fine.
I linked sources. I showed you methodology. I did what you were asking. If you want to continue this discussion, you're gonna have to put in some real effort and that means more than just throwing up a bunch of linked articles and having the articles talk for you. Because that's the easy part; the hard part's forming your own idea or theory and using other data to try verifying it, even challenging your own assumed points to see how well they hold up under scrutiny.
Don't go running to mods over numbers you don't like please, or trying to make a poorly-imitated copycat post. We're just talking console sales numbers, nothing to get that worked up over. Though I have more or less said what I have to say on this; maybe
Heisenberg007
or
Mibu no ookami
or someone else who does a lot in figuring out actual Xbox sales data have other things to chime in with. I'm otherwise trying to steer clear of too much discussion on the acquisition itself until some actual decision is made. It is hyper time-consuming 
