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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Three

Member
I think that in the interests of compassion and empathy, we need to stop spot-lighting this guy.

He clearly has a mental illness, and it's cruel to keep laughing at him like this when he's literally having a psychological break down in real-time on the internet.
I just hate the guy's hypocrisy for companies who aren't his clients. He cheers on regulation when it's the likes of Apple on the receiving end of it. I don't think he has a mental illness but he does come across as a narcissist calling others insane or crazy when things don't go his way. Personally, I hope the UK upholds the block and he can wallow in his own self pity.
 
Finally. MS is playing their favorite game. Corrupting government bodies to get what they want.
The genie's out of that bottle. Microsoft has to learn that money doesn't always work for getting what you and it's no method of winning a tough fight. It might work on their own in the Americas, but the UK has been taking measures to guard against bribery for years now. Their money and flexing won't work with the UK. This might also be another situation, where Florian has gotten so blind, he cannot even read properly, let alone see the forest from the goddamned trees. This mental breakdown of his is slowly getting unravelled on twitter in real time.
 
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feynoob

Banned
The genie's out of that bottle. Microsoft has to learn that money doesn't always work for getting what you and it's no method of winning a tough fight. It might work on their own in the Americas, but the UK has been taking measures to guard against bribery for years now. Their money and flexing won't work with the UK.
Money works 100% of the time.
MS failed because they talked too much.
They were like that annoying rich kid, who keeps talking non-stop.
 
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Money works 100% if the time.
MS failed because they talked too much.
They were like that annoying rich kid, who keeps talking non-stop.
Well, yes, money does indeed talk. But only when you play things cleverly and not jeopardize your plans by acting like that spoiled rich kid who has everything, but has no idea when to stop and gets humiliated by the poorer kids in class for acting like an idiot. Microsoft throughout this entire deal process have become a prime example of this. And now, they'll be made into an example for teaching new law students of how not to act during a process revolving around a deal as big as this one.
 
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supernova8

Banned
I'm just calling out the hypocrisy demonstrated by some people on twitter, who have misunderstood Sunak's statements and twisted them into something else to fit their narrative and feed their hopium addiction.
Well yeah he's literally a paid consultant for Microsoft. It says as much on his blogspot profile.
 
Well, yes, money does indeed talk. But only when you play things cleverly and not jeopardize your plans by acting like that spoiled rich kid who has everything, but has no idea when to stop and gets humiliated by the poorer kids in class for acting like an idiot. Microsoft throughout this entire deal process have become a prime example of this. And now, they'll be made into an example for teaching new law students of how not to act during a process revolving around a deal as big as this one.

When it comes to this deal it's the bare minimum effort that Microsoft made with regulators that messed it up. They acted like it was going to be extremely easy but now are panicking after underestimating the situation. Microsoft is trying to take a shortcut here but it's not an easy path to follow. Something the longer and safer way is the right choice.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Post by CeeCee the last part explains why EC is so easily influenced by PR
Right - y'all made me dig out my login for the first time in three years so you better all appreciate this.

First up, I have a professional background related to this issue.

Second, There are at least 4 major errors of fact or understanding which are running endemic in the thread:
That the CMA is in any way subject to government intervention/"just take them to court". The appeal process goes to a tribunal, which can only intervene if their action was illegal, had incorrect process or was irrational. There is no other route to appeal to the courts and the UK Government cannot intervene even if they want to. The CMA is not run or controlled by the Government - attacking the CMA means you are attacking an independent organisation, not the UK Government or the Conservative Party.
That irrational carries a colloquial meaning. Just because you think a conclusion is wrong does not make it irrational. Irrational, in this context means that it is so unreasonable that no rational person could reasonably have reached this conclusion.
That the probability of the appeal succeeding is anything other than very low. Success rate at the CAT is not high, and a success would just mean that the CMA has to remake the decision having fixed whatever the issue in their process was.
That the CMA is a political body, "overpaid", "idiots", or any other ad-hominem attack. The CMA is an independent body, staffed by people with deep and extensive knowledge and experience of competition law and issues, who are paid less than they could earn in the private sector (even quite senior staff are generally paid less than £100k). From professional experience, I can confidently say that the quality of the CMA's work and people is highly-regarded by professionals in the field.


Also, please stop bringing up Brexit. In fact, as a fun bonus, EU competition policy is exactly what most people in this thread seem to not want - a heavily political process. EU decisions are made by the Commission - a body heavily subject to political influence. UK decisions are made by a politically independent body. To be explicitly clear: if you prefer the EU process, you prefer a political process.
 

azertydu91

Hard to Kill
Retardation has no limits. Now it seems they cranked it all the way to 11. I wonder which stage of grief this could fall in. Denial, maybe?
go to 11 spinal tap GIF
 

Pelta88

Member
We're posting UK politics now?

Like, the deal got killed a while back and now Sunak is the saviour? In a round about way and if you think about?

To my US cousins, let me give you some UK perspective. The UK just had our version of the midterms. The Conservatives (Government in power) lost a gargantuan amount of elected officials. Literally, a defeat of Historic proportions. And they're projected to lose the general election that could threaten the party's actual existence. Yes. They might be wiped out and sink to the third largest political party.

This idea that Rishi Sunak or some made up authority people like FOSS are pushing, will potentially have an impact on the CMA's decision is categorically false. It is a made up lie being sold to you for nefarious reasons or in desperation. Rishi is a lame duck politically. The idea that he has sway over any UK independent regulatory body is false.

For me, anyone posting FOSS's false info about the UK will get blocked from this point onwards. Nothing personal. I just refuse to live in or discuss the alternate reality that clown is pushing. Especially when every single piece of false info dude promotes can be fact checked with obvious ease.
 
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Astray

Member
I might have missed that. Just seems weird how some "experts " are trying to tell people there's 0% chance of this failing. Like Florian for example.
Whenever someone just cites something like a SeekingAlpha article I just laugh and roll my eyes.

Why would anyone do quality due diligence on their investment thesis and just.. give it away?

If it's like a Bloomberg or Barron's or whatever then at least there are codes of conduct where reporters can't own stocks or something. But these free-for-all kind of sites just don't have anything like that, it's just sharks getting exit liquidity for the cost of a few intern hours.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
That Foss guy is only an expert at being a corporate shill.

I'm amazed he actually gets corporations to pay him to spout this shit. I look at some of the idiots on twitter who somehow buy into his drivel and I'm left wondering how influencing these people will benefit any company. I mean.....we are talking about a lot folks like senshit-jujubean-brain who will amend facts and logic entirely to fit their own corporation worship. What is it? Some sort of warped corporation God complex? I don't get it.
 

Astray

Member
I'm amazed he actually gets corporations to pay him to spout this shit. I look at some of the idiots on twitter who somehow buy into his drivel and I'm left wondering how influencing these people will benefit any company. I mean.....we are talking about a lot folks like senshit-jujubean-brain who will amend facts and logic entirely to fit their own corporation worship. What is it? Some sort of warped corporation God complex? I don't get it.
Getting paid does that to a person, they're not in this to add to the conversation or learn something, they're in it to shill and shill hard.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
We're posting UK politics now?

Like, the deal got killed a while back and now Sunak is the saviour? In a round about way and if you think about?

To my US cousins, let me give you some UK perspective. The UK just had our version of the midterms. The Conservatives (Government in power) lost a gargantuan amount of elected officials. Literally, a defeat of Historic proportions. And they're projected to lose the general election that could threaten the party's actual existence. Yes. They might be wiped out and sink to the third largest political party.

This idea that Rishi Sunak or some made up authority people like FOSS are pushing, will potentially have an impact on the CMA's decision is categorically false. It is a made up lie being sold to you for nefarious reasons or in desperation. Rishi is a lame duck politically. The idea that he has sway over any UK independent regulatory body is false.

For me, anyone posting FOSS's false info about the UK will get blocked from this point onwards. Nothing personal. I just refuse to live in or discuss the alternate reality that clown is pushing. Especially when every single piece of false info dude promotes can be fact checked with obvious ease.
The only part I would question here is whether we know if Rishi is a lame duck PM - given that local elections are frequently used against an incumbent governing party as a protest vote and are frequently inconsistent with a general election result that follows.

I would also say our local elections aren't quite the same a midterms in the US, I know that's probably being a bit pedantic, but because there is no measurable power shift in parliament - as a result of the elections - the government still has the same makeup before and after, with the same authority. Local policies being changed by newly appointed local councillors to work against the incumbent government strategy (at a county level) can be overridden in parliament by the incumbent party.

However, I do fully agree with you on all the other points, and still like the parallel being drawn between midterms and local elections for your point.
 
I'm amazed he actually gets corporations to pay him to spout this shit. I look at some of the idiots on twitter who somehow buy into his drivel and I'm left wondering how influencing these people will benefit any company. I mean.....we are talking about a lot folks like senshit-jujubean-brain who will amend facts and logic entirely to fit their own corporation worship. What is it? Some sort of warped corporation God complex? I don't get it.
Just corporate dickriding. He's there to do damage control and feed the hopium addiction of fanboys, nothing else.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Paid to have what effect though?

Thats what I struggle to see because he's definitely not going to change the regulators minds about this. I doubt he has any influence at all.
They did change the EC mind with their PR stunt
That's why he also tags all the people involved all the time to put pressure and so the fanboys spam the regulators accounts on Twitter
 

Pelta88

Member
The only part I would question here is whether we know if Rishi is a lame duck PM - given that local elections are frequently used against an incumbent governing party as a protest vote and are frequently inconsistent with a general election result that follows.

I would also say our local elections aren't quite the same a midterms in the US, I know that's probably being a bit pedantic, but because there is no measurable power shift in parliament - as a result of the elections - the government still has the same makeup before and after, with the same authority. Local policies being changed by newly appointed local councillors to work against the incumbent government strategy (at a county level) can be overridden in parliament by the incumbent party.

However, I do fully agree with you on all the other points, and still like the parallel being drawn between midterms and local elections for your point.

I made the comparison because this is a US based board and many seem unfamiliar with our political processes. It's weird. Damn near outright ludicrous to see some takes.

1. Microsoft should just leave the UK... For COD :messenger_tears_of_joy:
2. Pay off the government
3. After slandering the CMA, Microsoft will get the CMA to reverse the decision via appeals
4. Get Nadella to Persuade the CMA

None of these apply to the UK because the UK is not a Banana Republic. None of the above is even an option.
 
Idas posted this.....


FwAjVvhWYAAsCiK


FwAjV5FWwAEGFDD


QUICK! LOCK THE THREAD!
The point where he mentions the ad hominem attacks, is essentially, exactly what I've been echoing in this thread in the last few pages. CMA are not boyscouts, they're experts and veterans in a variety of fields, not some incompetent, lazy fucks, who make decisions and conclusions without extensive research and in a hurry.

This sentiment some have that the CMA are incompetent fools, who can be easily influenced by bags of cash is nothing more than fanboy drivel. It comes from folks who don't understand how regulators in the UK function or act, and they attempt to call them out by undermining them to feed the hopium and copium addiction of those in deep denial of the situation. The CMA already made their decision, fanboys either have to take it or leave it, there's no workaround or middle ground to sway them around
 

Topher

Identifies as young
I looked up their appeal process in the past and I think I even posted a question in regard to point 2. With the FTC already suing to block, wouldn't that already disprove that the CMA acted irrational? Of course, there are those that will argue the FTC is irrational but...

Believe this is talking specifics within the findings rather than just an overall decision to block. For example, many people have called the CMAs calculation of current market share as "irrational". Even if the CAT agrees with that, however, the CMA can simply adjust the calculation and come to exact same decision.

A key point in those posts, however, is the statement that the CMA is not affected by politics. Effectively saying Folian Mueller is full of shit when he says the UK government will overrule the CMA. They cannot.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
He’s wrong that era don’t want a political process, they absolutely do because of how easily it can be influenced. They just want the “correct” kind of politics to do it.

I think that's what he is actually saying, particularly with that very last sentence. He is criticizing those who are calling the CMA "political" and pointing out that the EU is actually exactly what they think the CMA is (wrongly).
 
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Believe this is talking specifics within the findings rather than just an overall decision to block. For example, many people have called the CMAs calculation of current market share as "irrational". Even if the CAT agrees with that, however, the CMA can simply adjust the calculation and come to exact same decision.

A key point in those posts, however, is the statement that the CMA is not affected by politics. Effectively saying Folian Mueller is full of shit when he says the UK government will overrule the CMA. They cannot.
Florian's brain is a bag full of weed, and it constantly smokes, clouding his mind and thought process. Just a paid, corporate bootlicking pimp showing people the various stages of a mental breakdown in real time. The salt is overflowing from all the crevices on his body, and can turn any water into salt water in the blink of an eye.
 

reinking

Gold Member
Believe this is talking specifics within the findings rather than just an overall decision to block. For example, many people have called the CMAs calculation of current market share as "irrational". Even if the CAT agrees with that, however, the CMA can simply adjust the calculation and come to exact same decision.

A key point in those posts, however, is the statement that the CMA is not affected by politics. Effectively saying Folian Mueller is full of shit when he says the UK government will overrule the CMA. They cannot.
Canadian Agree GIF by CBC
 
Idas posted this.....


FwAjVvhWYAAsCiK


FwAjV5FWwAEGFDD


QUICK! LOCK THE THREAD!

So basically.

Life Smash GIF


That's what this is sounding like to me. Sure they can appeal and complain but they will probably not get the results they want. If anything the CMA will just request them to make further concessions (ex divestments) to allow the merger to happen. I seriously doubt Microsoft will do that since they made it clear they want all of ABK.
 

Pelta88

Member
He’s wrong that era don’t want a political process, they absolutely do because of how easily it can be influenced. They just want the “correct” kind of politics to do it.

Era were following idas and Hoe Law who for close to 18 months. Those individuals were assuring them that this deal was in the bag. Nothing less than a sure thing. I think that point is crucial as it explains why they can't let it go and behave as if the UK institutions are frivolous and easily swayed.

But what is most important when it comes to the narrative that someone can intervene is to remember that Microsoft and Activision came out and disrespected (for want of a better word) the CMA. Called them incompetent and questioned our institutions and even our economy. This is essential because it means the decision can't be reversed. If the CMA considered doing so this deal would enter the public sphere and point to government and institutional weakness. Put simply, it'd be political suicide.

It'd be like Biden hosting a Crude Oil and Pro abortion themed party at the White House. Featuring the Alt Right and Oil execs. It is not going to happen.
 
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Kilau

Member
I think that's what he is actually saying, particularly with that very last sentence. He is criticizing those who are calling the CMA "political" and pointing out that the EU is actually exactly what they think the CMA is (wrongly).
Then he’s just wrong that they have the self reflection to recognize their hypocrisy lol.
 
Seems like the best case for them is the EC to approve the merger. But even then they still have to deal with the CMAs and FTCs decision. While the FTC can certainly be fought the CMA seems like a lost cause.

That's how i understand this situation. No amount of tears is going to solve this.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
If they block the deal on Monday, I’m gonna have second best day of my life.

First one being the first time I titty-fucked my girl friend.

Reuters has a pretty good track record of calling these. They clearly have quality sources, so I expect Monday the deal will be greenlit by the EC and that many people will be confused to think that this now means the deal is actually going through. The CMA has still blocked the deal and the FTC is still positioned to fight the deal.

The EC would have been a nail in the coffin, but it isn't some green light changing the dynamics of the current situation. We'll certainly get some tweets from Lulu out of it and Microsoft will start some more PR spin that the EC did the right thing here, but it doesn't change the end game.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Era were following idas and Hoe Law who for close to 18 months. Those individuals were assuring them that this deal was in the bag. Nothing less than a sure thing. I think that point is crucial as it explains why they can't let it go and behave as if the UK institutions are frivolous and easily swayed.

But what is most important when it comes to the narrative that someone can intervene is to remember that Microsoft and Activision came out and disrespected (for want of a better word) the CMA. Called them incompetent and questioned our institutions and even our economy. This is essential because it means the decision can't be reversed. If the CMA considered doing so this deal would enter the public sphere and point to government and institutional weakness. Put simply, it'd be political suicide.

It'd be like Biden hosting a Crude Oil and Pro abortion themed party at the White House. Featuring the Alt Right and Oil execs. It is not going to happen.

Notice how he (Hoeg's Law) still hasn't put a video out about the CMA blocking this. I know he is recovering from his stroke but that didn't stop him from putting out series of stroke recovery videos as well as an Apple v Epic video. He doesn't want to lose his audience.
 

X-Wing

Member
I just don't know how the EC could justify passing this when Microsoft has at least two other antitrust cases against them being looked at in the European Union.
But... I won't be surprised if they pass it.


 

Topher

Identifies as young
Notice how he (Hoeg's Law) still hasn't put a video out about the CMA blocking this. I know he is recovering from his stroke but that didn't stop him from putting out series of stroke recovery videos as well as an Apple v Epic video. He doesn't want to lose his audience.

To be fair, Hoeg has been making videos about his experiences having a stroke and really hasn't made any videos about anything save for the one Apple/Epic video.
 
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Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
To be fair, Hoeg has been making videos about his experiences having a stroke and really hasn't made any videos about anything save for the one Apple/Epic video.

That's literally what I said, but the choice to make the apple epic video instead of this one is particularly telling. He knows he is going to lose a lot of viewers when this is over. He's just pushing that back as long as he can.

He had been hoping to make a whole series of successful video about FTC vs Microsoft and now those videos aren't going to do well.
 

Elios83

Member
I just don't know how the EC could justify passing this when Microsoft has at least two other antitrust cases against them being looked at in the European Union.
But... I won't be surprised if they pass it.

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We can only wait until monday (if the decision is actually announced on monday). No one was expecting the CMA to block as well after they dropped the console SLC.
Regardless of the outcome Microsoft and Activision will be forced to continue with the posturing until July. Then they will have to decide if it's worth to drag this for years with no certainty of a positive outcome and with their hands tied and the answer will be no.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
I just don't know how the EC could justify passing this when Microsoft has at least two other antitrust cases against them being looked at in the European Union.
But... I won't be surprised if they pass it.



Remember that time when folks were saying the EC was biased because one guy who worked for EC said he owned a PlayStation?

artworks-000120720438-op7cln-t500x500.jpg
 
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