Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Astray said:

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I feel like the FTC is just engaging in performance theater at this point. If they were ever serious about a possible appeal in the event they lost, then I would have expected them to object to a trial judge whose son works for a party. And having seen a lack of a few hundred posts debating an objection, my guess is they never objected and waived the argument as a result. Which makes me believe they never intended to appeal an unfavorable outcome.
 
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Varteras said:
If they would stop hiding their numbers this wouldn't be an issue. Based on what we've seen of their e-mails versus their public talking points, there is more than enough reason to doubt them.
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We will have to agree to disagree. If that were the case, and with the emails that we have seen from Sony, that would mean we would have to doubt all the numbers any game corporation provides. That said, the poster needs to provide proof of their claim. They have not. However, there is proof that Game Pass is profitable.
 
ChorizoPicozo said:
Constant delays and when the games finally come out....boom! games are still broken, unfinished or unoptimized .

the heavy reliance of a couple of IPs which are milked to oblivion with MTXs or/and sequels/remakes/remasters.

basically all third party publishers are able to exists because the insidious game design that is GaaS.

MS is going to spend 70B to acquire what exactly?

Basically ongoing/live games that are so demanding that is the only thing this company is able to make; three of these IPs are PC centric anyway.

and if MS destroys them due to their incompetence at Game Production/management so be it. is the chaos and disruption this industry needs
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Your first two paragraphs. There is no bigger culprit in gaming since GamePass launched than MGS with that kind of stuff. They've had basically zero non Forza successful huge game launches since they went day and date on Gamepass. So I just don't think this is some amazing move that will be great for everyone. You saying this is what the industry needs right now, well. I just disagree. Give all the IPs to Nintendo and really shake things up? Sure. I'd consider it a success if Mircrosoft could just tread water with these franchises, and it's not like Activision was doing an amazing job in the first place. Halo Infinite isn't exactly a hopeful example of how to do GaaS.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
That's the way most digital products work.

No different than movies and music. Tv/movie/music sub plans are huge. Only reason why lots of people have piles of DVDs and CDs in boxes in their basement is because that's how it was done at the time. You had to buy physical.

In reality, most people dont give a shit. If they can pay a modest monthly fee and get tons of access to content that's good enough for them. Most people arent even going to replay old games anyway. At least with tv/movies/music people will rewatch classics or listen to old albums from 50 years ago. Most oldie games die. Why pay $70 US when you can wait it out for sub plans. Not everyone is so itching to play day one at full price.
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Yet another acknowledgement that devs will make less money going forward now that MS is allowed to buy the majority of the industry.
 
I don't think MS expects either Xbox or Gamepass to be profitable, per the email leaks their strategic goal is to spend their way to the top and remove Sony. So they probably expect to stay in the red for the foreseeable future, Netflix was in the red for years too.
 
NickFire said:
I feel like the FTC is just engaging in performance theater at this point. If they were ever serious about a possible appeal in the event they lost, then I would have expected them to object to a trial judge whose son works for a party. And having seen a lack of a few hundred posts debating an objection, my guess is they never objected and waived the argument as a result. Which makes me believe they never intended to appeal an unfavorable outcome.



We all knew that when the trial occurred. But unless the FTC requested recusal, which I do not recall them doing, it is probably a waived argument.
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The judge was believed to be favorable for the FTC. Microsoft was even called out for not wanting the judge on the case.

They had no reason to find fault in her. It was their best chance.
 



How the hell would carving out gamepass in the UK work?

Pachter was right for once but yet he's still determined to be wrong.
 
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Kvally said:
We will have to agree to disagree. If that were the case, and with the emails that we have seen from Sony, that would mean we would have to doubt all the numbers any game corporation provides. That said, the poster needs to provide proof of their claim. They have not. However, there is proof that Game Pass is profitable.
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I don't trust jack shit that comes from them. Stop hiding numbers and obfuscating by rolling Xbox into other divisions on your financial reports. They could dispel any doubts easily. Instead they say "trust us". Like they said right before Zenimax went full exclusive.
 
NickFire said:
:messenger_tears_of_joy:

I don't think it was you. But I absolutely had people suggest Cloud, anything can be ported, etc.
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They commented that it will be a native port as early as last year, the Switch thing was peoples guess when this announcement was first announced.

We know they will ai to make a native version relative to the hardware for almost 8, 10 months now.

GHG said:



How the hell would carving out gamepass in the UK work?
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Have a tier of GP in UK without xcloud ?
 
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Red5 said:
I don't think MS expects either Xbox or Gamepass to be profitable, per the email leaks their strategic goal is to spend their way to the top and remove Sony. So they probably expect to stay in the red for the foreseeable future, Netflix was in the red for years too.
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basically, because they're a $2 trillion corporation they can play the long game
 
mckmas8808 said:
Yet another acknowledgement that devs will make less money going forward now that MS is allowed to buy the majority of the industry.
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How is MS buying the majority of the industry. Activision's annual revenue from all games and platforms is about $8B. Thats it. And that even includes the shit loads of money they make off WOW and King mobile games.

So let's not get emotional overexaggerating magnitude.
 
Varteras said:
I don't trust jack shit that comes from them. Stop hiding numbers and obfuscating by rolling Xbox into other divisions on your financial reports. They could dispel any doubts easily. Instead they say "trust us". Like they said right before Zenimax went full exclusive.
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I don't lose sleep over what MS, Sony or any other company spouts out. Just like the corporation that I work for.
 
Jigsaah said:
My guess. Almost all of the ones who only own a Playstation.

What will be telling is to see what happens to the PC purchases and Xbox purchases, where they've had to buy it for years and now simply don't anymore.

Also consider that most people play COD for Warzone and Multiplayer. How many people are ok, just going the free route and playing Warzone or whatever the next iteration is.
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The bolded is important too. I wonder if COD in a few years will stop selling 10+ million a year. Could we see a day where it "ONLY" sells 5 million units a year?
 
Kvally said:
Correct, I said what MS has announced to the gamers and shareholders. I personally am not making the claim they are profitable with Game Pass, I don't work there.
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There's a way to lie without lying, after that trial i know for a fact they lie by misconstruing things - they lie to the public all the time.

Without actual figures where they can't manipulate them, nobody can say its profitable.
 
Corrik said:
The judge was believed to be favorable for the FTC. Microsoft was even called out for not wanting the judge on the case.

They had no reason to find fault in her. It was their best chance.
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Hard disagreement on that one. In my view you should request recusal 100% of the time if you are plaintiff, and the judge's son works for a defendant. But that is just one man's opinion, and if the FTC did not ask for it then its water under the bridge regardless.
 
Kvally said:
I don't lose sleep over what MS, Sony or any other company spouts out. Just like the corporation that I work for.
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Yup.

I care more about what my shares are worth than what happens game wise. If the deal fell through, but Activision got a $3B pay off from MS for a dead deal, plus what others project saying Activision is undervalued since the markets have rebounded, I'd take a big share pop with zero deal too.
 
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mckmas8808 said:
The bolded is important too. I wonder if COD in a few years will stop selling 10+ million a year. Could we see a day where it "ONLY" sells 5 million units a year?
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If nothing else it will put to rest the question as to whether Gamepass cannibalizes sales. It's gonna be one helluva November.
 
GHG said:



How the hell would carving out gamepass in the UK work?

Pachter was right for once but yet he's still determined to be wrong.
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It's not unusual for subscription services to have region-locked content. That's standard operating procedure at Netflix, Hulu, etc.
 
Jigsaah said:
There are plenty of games I've "rented" on Gamepass that I would never consider buying otherwise. For the games I want to own, I still have the option to buy....at a discount, no less.

This argument is not really valid.
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I'm not making an argument if you read the post I was responding to, I'm explaining why people are cheering on the acqusition of the largest 3rd party developer by one of the largest companies in the world.
Interesting that you call it an "argument."
 
Kvally said:
I don't lose sleep over what MS, Sony or any other company spouts out. Just like the corporation that I work for.
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That's fine. But that doesn't change that they hide numbers and have clearly deceived. So when they say "trust us", only a fool accepts their word.
 
I didn't feel that the FTC did enough to prove what it needed to for this judge. America doesn't really do a whole lot to stop bigger corporations from buying and consolidating their way.

A lot of dirty laundry was laid out for what Microsoft's intentions are(and Sony as well). I have long said that Microsoft could just buy whomever the hell they want(I thought that in 2001 when they showed up) and it's clear the FTC doesn't really have any teeth(look how powerful Amazon has become, etc.)

I still maintain that this decision will be the beginning of an acquisition war.

Yes, Sony doesn't have the same war chest as Microsoft, but I'm reasonably sure there will be a constant consolidation over the next couple of years.

I don't think anyone wins from this. Maybe PC gamers?

You'll probably see a lot more ports, but the era of "acquisitions" and "exclusivity" and "timed exclusivity" is about to get a whole lot worse on both sides.
 
at this point, everything is valid, there is no possibility that other acquisitions will be prevented after this one.
so the question is when ms will announce the next acquisition
xiskza said:
A subscription based future seems more likely now and it terrifies me
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why? It scares me too, either 90% of existing publishers end up being taken over by a major (no good) capable of supporting those services or they blow up.
 
adamsapple said:
They commented that it will be a native port as early as last year, the Switch thing was peoples guess when this announcement was first announced.

We know they will ai to make a native version relative to the hardware for almost 8, 10 months now.
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I still don't see it happening with COD traditional. Warzone - ok, maybe, heck even probably. But I just don't see Switch 2 being likely to compare enough with S/X, PS5, and gaming PC's for the same iteration of COD traditional.
 
aliadiere25 said:
You literally have no clue, do you? We're not talking about a couple of dollars increase here or there, we're talking about a 100% increase in the space of 2 years or so (or maybe this year for Game Pass after this deal goes through)

It isn't just the price increase, it's also the fact that this gives the go-ahead for companies to do whatever they want, charge whatever they want, and make games exclusives that weren't exclusive before. This is why we have court hearings to try and stop companies from monopolizing things... so they can't do whatever they want to the customer.
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Companies have always been able to do what they want within the confines of the law nothing new. They went to court about this deal. The FTC didn't prove their case and a lot of us that followed it knew the possibility of this deal being blocked was minimal. We questioned it when this all started. As far as your theory this is going to increase 100 percent in two years……okay guess people can decide to a new hobby or stick with it 🤷🏾‍♂️
 
tmlDan said:
There's a way to lie without lying, after that trial i know for a fact they lie by misconstruing things - they lie to the public all the time.

Without actual figures where they can't manipulate them, nobody can say its profitable.
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Still waiting for the poster to post proof that Game Pass is a loss leader. The onus is on him. MS said Game Pass is profitable. Whether or not you believe it has nothing to do with facts that have been stated. I am not saying I disagree with you, but one thing that must be done here at is people backing up their claims. He claimed Game Pass is a loss leader.

For my back up, from last month:

www.tweaktown.com

Game Pass and Xbox are profitable, Phil Spencer reiterates

Microsoft gaming CEO Phil Spencer reiterates that the value-oriented Xbox Game Pass subscription service and the Xbox business as a whole are profitable.
www.tweaktown.com www.tweaktown.com

In a recent Giant Bomb at Nite stream, Spencer talks more about the Game Pass model and Microsoft's overall business ethos with the subscription service.

"Game Pass is profitable, Xbox is profitable. I've said it's sustainable, but people ask me what I mean by that," Spencer said.
"For this...I'm going to take it back to console, the olden days, when we just did games on console. Every time we shipped a console, we pretended that Sony and Nintendo didn't exist. So any time you looked at a game, you said 'hey, you're not shipping this game on the full console base, you're excluding...let's just call it 2/3rds of the market.'

"Let's just say we're going to ship Halo 2 and we're not shipping it on Nintendo or Sony. Nobody every asked me 'hey, how does the P&L for this game work when you're not selling it everywhere you can sell it."

"But now with Game Pass...people kind of get stuck. They say 'well wait a minute, you're not selling every copy you can sell, how can you afford to go do these games?

"The math is actually very similar for us. What you did on old-school console is you said, 'okay, how many consoles are you going to sell because Halo 2 launches, how long will those players stay on the platform and how many games will they buy, and is that more cost-effective to keep the game exclusive to your platform?'

"And let's be clear, we could have sold Halo 2 on PlayStation and we probably would have sold a couple copies. We probably could have done the same thing on Nintendo's platform.

"So when I look at Game Pass, we absolutely are going to make money on Starfield--touch wood, that's the plan--and we will go grow Game Pass and Xbox will be a better platform both on PC and console where people play.

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/9184...profitable-phil-spencer-reiterates/index.html
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