Support NeoGAF

[Sanepar]

Why the hell will most Xbox or PC gamers buy COD for $70 if it's on GP? Come on bro, be honest.

Because most who play cod. Only play cod and don't care? A console sells average of 8 games per cycle. 5% of this market is hardcore gamers who plays everything. Most play casual or 1-2 franchises they love.

 

[mckmas8808]

How is MS buying the majority of the industry. Activision's annual revenue from all games and platforms is about $8B. Thats it. And that even includes the shit loads of money they make off WOW and King mobile games.

So let's not get emotional overexaggerating magnitude.

Not just revenue, but also the number of devs. And why act as if $8 Billion a year is small money? The point is......Bethesda/Zenimax was the beginning. This is MS continuing. They won't stop here.

 

[Kvally]

That's fine. But that doesn't change that they hide numbers and have clearly deceived. So when they say "trust us", only a fool accepts their word.

Which is why I don't trust Sony or MS. But unless the poster can provide a source that confirms Game Pass is a loss leader, we have to go with what was given to us.

 

[SportsFan581]

holy shit, this news resurrected fey !

Just joking there @feynoob, welcome back if you'd really been on sabbatical.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Which is why I don't trust Sony or MS. But unless the poster can provide a source that confirms Game Pass is a loss leader, we have to go with what was given to us.

 

[Kvally]

Losing all of Activision's MTX money is going to be a devastating hit to Sony

Nah, Sony won't be bothered short term. They just need to come out with a better competing product that prints money for them. They can build a COD killer. Look at all the great games they have given us already.

 

[Red5]

How is MS buying the majority of the industry. Activision's annual revenue from all games and platforms is about $8B. Thats it. And that even includes the shit loads of money they make off WOW and King mobile games.

So let's not get emotional overexaggerating magnitude.

Let's be honest, the majority of the industry is comprised of mobile gacha games and browser games, what matters to us is the traditional AA and AAA console and PC games. But in the eyes of the law there's no such distinction, they're all part of the same market.

 

[bitbydeath]

I mean, there was some urgency posturing involved there lol, but I guess Corley wasn't joking when she said it shouldn't take her months to reach this decision.

bitbydeath , see.

I'm surprised they got it through on time.
Has anything been mentioned about the renegotiations yet?

 

[mckmas8808]

Losing all of Activision's MTX money is going to be a devastating hit to Sony

 

[Varteras]

Which is why I don't trust Sony or MS. But unless the poster can provide a source that confirms Game Pass is a loss leader, we have to go with what was given to us.

Which is my point. They've really given us nothing. Your stance is "trust us" is enough because that's all they've said on the matter. That may work for you, but that's not going to work for most and it really shouldn't because it's extraordinarily weak. Like, that wouldn't hold up anywhere else but an enthusiast forum.

 

[Ownage]

I'm very happy with this decision.

A great day for Backwards Compatibility and Forwards Compatibility. With MS heavily invested in the console space and with good competition in that space, we all win in some ways.

Unless you work at AB and are made redundant by the M$ purchase. These folks won't win, and it'll be tough for a lot of them.

 

[Banjo64]

I imagine you as Akuma

Lmao

 

[Jigsaah]

I'm not making an argument if you read the post I was responding to, I'm explaining why people are cheering on the acqusition of the largest 3rd party developer by one of the largest companies in the world.
Interesting that you call it an "argument."

Ok my bad, it's not a valid explanation then. For the same reasons I mentioned in my last response.

 

[GHG]

It's not unusual for subscription services to have region-locked content. That's standard operating procedure at Netflix, Hulu, etc.

Region locked content tends to be for licensing issues though, not because of regulatory oversight.

 

[Ogbert]

Doesn't make any sense considering "play anywhere" is such a strong part of the offering and mission statement.

No chance anything to do with gamepass gets carved out.

Yes, the carve out makes no sense, in terms of CoD.

The carve out does makes sense as a structural remedy, where ABK sets up a subsidiary in the UK and MS can then say to the CMA 'guys, if this doesn't work out, we've ringfenced ABK UK as a separate entity and it's far easier to divest'.

But for CoD, you don't need a carve out. Just regulatory commitments to fair access on an ongoing basis.

 

[Aguero9320]

Disclosure, British but don't live there any more.

How would UK Xbox gamers feel about the CMA if that (seemingly ludicrous) suggestion pans out, and COD is on Game Pass around the world but not in the UK? Or PlayStation gamers if it's on Plus everywhere but there? Turkeys voting for Christmas it would seem? No winners there...

 

[Vox Machina]

Without actual figures where they can't manipulate them, nobody can say its profitable.

Didn't stop them from claiming it's profitable multiple times.

That's not proof, he can leave out important info and say its profitable, we did this at every marketing agency i worked for to make things look great.

Give me figures, actual dollar amounts of spend/investments into GP and show revenue vs profits.

Default stance is that Game Pass is profitable and until we have more information that's the stance I'm going to take because that's all we know at this point. I doubt any company, Microsoft included, is going to give you the information you're asking for because why would they?

 

[mckmas8808]

Nah, Sony won't be bothered short term. They just need to come out with a better competing product that prints money for them. They can build a COD killer. Look at all the great games they have given us already.

Funny how some companies don't need to compete at all. Just spend $80 billion to get what you want. Almost sounds anti-competitive.

 

[adamsapple]

Doesn't make any sense considering "play anywhere" is such a strong part of the offering and mission statement.

No chance anything to do with gamepass gets carved out.

Well, they're either gonna have to make some changes to alleviate the cloud concern, or the CMA will do a 180* and just pass it through after blocking it originally.

All signs point to this being approved now, again unless something else major breaks.

I'm surprised they got it through on time.
Has anything been mentioned about the renegotiations yet?

FTC has the next 3 (?) days to file appeal and no word on what CMA and MS's new negotiations involve yet.

 

[blacktout]

Region locked content tends to be for licensing issues though, not because of regulatory oversight.

Oh yeah, totally. Might still be a feasible solution though if the end goal is simply keeping CoD off GamePass in the UK.

 

[Fabieter]

Game Pass is profitable and they're already experimenting with ways to improve the profit margin with paid Early Access upgrades to the base game that comes included with Game Pass.



Game Pass is profitable.

Without ms showing us how they came to that "profit" how would you know? I don't think they necessarily lied but iam 100% sure they twisted some numbers to get "profitable"

 

[graywolf323]

Funny how some companies don't need to compete at all. Just spend $80 billion to get what you want. Almost sounds anti-competitive.

yeah I've never understood the logic of that argument, why is the onus on Sony to build a COD competitor just because Microsoft can afford to buy the largest 3rd party publisher? given how flush with cash MS is why doesn't Xbox just build it's own instead?

Without ms showing us how they came to that "profit" how would you know? I don't think they necessarily lied but iam 100% sure they twisted some numbers to get "profitable"

as Mark Twain popularized; there are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies, and statistics

 

[Kvally]

Funny how some companies don't need to compete at all. Just spend $80 billion to get what you want. Almost sounds anti-competitive.

True....and it seems like multiple game companies are just spending money to get what they want.

 

[docchicken]

Nah, Sony won't be bothered short term. They just need to come out with a better competing product that prints money for them. They can build a COD killer. Look at all the great games they have given us already.

They would lose up to 1.5 billion in revenue; it absolutely is slated to hurt them, and that's what one of the primary goals of this M&A was as laid out in the emails we all read in the discovery process.

Also, no one is going to build a "COD killer." If it was possible, it would have been done by now. The massive infrastructure built around COD in Activision is part of the reason it is valued so highly.

 

[bitbydeath]

Well, they're either gonna have to make some changes to alleviate the cloud concern, or the CMA will do a 180* and just pass it through after blocking it originally.

All signs point to this being approved now, again unless something else major breaks.





FTC has the next 3 (?) days to file appeal and no word on what CMA and MS's new negotiations involve yet.

I meant the Activision and Microsoft negotiations. Should be talk soon on that? Still catching up.

 

[RickMasters]

And people think payin $10 a month to all those games will be profitable for Microsoft.....

Well one things for sure they will be collecting the money from sales of those games on other platforms plus theirs MTXd on top of whatever gamepass and it's customers MTX transactions pay. I'd say they stand to make a lot of money either way.

 

[zapper]

what came out today on the cma really makes it believable to me that these really were puppets in the hands of lina khan. from global regulator to global joke in one year

 

[graywolf323]

True....and it seems like multiple game companies are just spending money to get what they want.

so why are you seemingly blindly supporting the only one spending more than some of their competitors are even worth? MS has spent more on acquisitions in the past few years than Nintendo's net worth and nearly as much as Sony's entire net worth

 

[SportsFan581]

I missed that one

Same.

Can't win them all.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well one things for sure they will be collecting the money from sales of those games on other platforms plus theirs MTXd on top of whatever gamepass and it's customers MTX transactions pay. I'd say they stand to make a lot of money either way.

And what about when they remove those games for Playstation consoles?

 

[Vox Machina]

FTC has the next 3 (?) days to file appeal and no word on what CMA and MS's new negotiations involve yet.

FTC has to appeal AND win in 3 days. Extremely, extremely unlikely.

 

[graywolf323]

FTC has to appeal AND win in 3 days. Extremely, extremely unlikely.

they don't need to win, they just need the appeals court to extend a temporary injunction until the case is heard

Same.

Can't win them all.

to be fair, absolutely no one is surprised you voted that way

 

[Kvally]

They would lose up to 1.5 billion in revenue; it absolutely is slated to hurt them

That is what you would call putting all your eggs in one basket. And yes, Sony is talented enough to come up with a COD killer, and will react accordingly. There is a reason they are one of the most successful gaming companies. Quality games is what sells PlayStation.

 

[Banjo64]

Oh yeah, totally. Might still be a feasible solution though if the end goal is simply keeping CoD off GamePass in the UK.

The end goal is to promote competition within the market. I don't see how allowing Microsoft to acquire the content and become the gatekeeper, but not allowing Game Pass to have CoD in the UK go hand in hand and I'm not sure who has connected those dots or what they've consumed.

 

[mckmas8808]

So starting in 2024 is there any reason as to why Xbox Series consoles can't sell close to or around the same amount Nintendo Switch and the PS5 sells? If they can't, what will be their excuse next time?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Because most who play cod. Only play cod and don't care? A console sells average of 8 games per cycle. 5% of this market is hardcore gamers who plays everything. Most play casual or 1-2 franchises they love.

Exactly.

And not everyone is on sub plan either. There's so many whiners saying games should be bought out than sub planned. Then fine, pay $70 US so you dont get held to digital licenses. No different than all the EA games that come to EA Play later. Yet FIFA consistently sells 20M copies a year.

A lot of sore people out there.

IMO it's not even about the fear mongering about MS shutting down games on completing platforms. They'll get their day one games like every other platform. They just like they'll be paying $70 while GP subbers might be getting Activision games at no additional cost if they're already a subber. So they feel ripped off they arent getting the same bargain priced deal.

Too bad. Like Costco, a private country club, or subbing to Spotify for dirt cheap listening to unlimited music of buying their discs or digiital albums. If you want the good stuff you can have it. You just got to be a member.

 

[graywolf323]

So starting in 2024 is there any reason as to why Xbox Series consoles can't sell close to or around the same amount Nintendo Switch and the PS5 sells? If they can't, what will be their excuse next time?

well you see they just need to be allowed to buy another publisher in order to compete

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

Wild. The only predictable thing was that the unpredictable would happen.

FTC suing to block despite reports that it was gonna pass. The CMA dropping the console SLC. The CMA then blocking based on the cloud. FTC being denied it's PI and the TRO made shorter. Then the CMA coming back to the negotiating table.

The overwhelming sentiment now is that this deal is going to happen. Wouldn't surprise me if something came out of left field to stop the deal.

 

[GHG]

Also, no one is going to build a "COD killer." If it was possible, it would have been done by now. The massive infrastructure built around COD in Activision is part of the reason it is valued so highly.

Yep the only way COD dies is if it kills itself. Much like how Battlefield and Halo have.

There needs to be a gap in that area of the market for there to be a desire for people to invest the necessary amount to build something that can serve as an alternative. Right now there isn't, anyone who is pumping money into trying to compete with current COD will just be wasting time and money.

 

[SportsFan581]

For the fools who LOL'd at my last post pointing out that the FTC may opt to continue opposing the deal, here's a CNBC article outlining the process of what's actually happened and what might happen next.

As the title of the article states, today's decision moves the deal closer, but suggesting its done is quite a leap legally speaking.

I'd stress that people might want to consider the politics as to why the FTC under Lina Khan might decide to press onward. This is a symbolic bloody nose in their stated aim to rein in big-tech.

The deal is technically done after today, MS will close it regardless of the future FTC litigation. However, the FTC could push to unwind the deal after the fact. Though they will need considerably better arguments than anything they brought forward so far.

 

[Kvally]

so why are you seemingly blindly supporting the only one spending more than some of their competitors are even worth? MS has spent more on acquisitions in the past few years than Nintendo's net worth and nearly as much as Sony's entire net worth

I don't care about the value (look at the value based on size if you must). If Sony was buying it for $80 billion (if they could have afforded it), I wouldn't have a feeling one way or the other. And I am not supporting the merger at all. In fact, as a gamer, I prefer LESS consolidation. I prefer LESS exclusives. I prefer more games for consumers. I prefer better quality games for consumers. I prefer more competition in the gaming industry to lower pricing, improving game quality and benefit us, the consumer most.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Wild. The only predictable thing was that the unpredictable would happen.

FTC suing to block despite reports that it was gonna pass. The CMA dropping the console SLC. The CMA then blocking based on the cloud. FTC being denied it's PI and the TRO made shorter. Then the CMA coming back to the negotiating table.

The overwhelming sentiment now is that this deal is going to happen. Wouldn't surprise me if something came out of left field to stop the deal.

I didn't follow this case closely aside from knowing CMA and FTC were the only ones really going after the deal.

But if what you recapped is true, it basically means firstly they had no idea what they were doing. Secondly, the CMA faked their position the whole time. Their true stance hinged on what the FTC did, so it was one giant facade waiting for the US ruling the whole time.

 

[ToadMan]

It's not unusual for subscription services to have region-locked content. That's standard operating procedure at Netflix, Hulu, etc.

Not region locked first party content though...

 

[Banjo64]

Wild. The only predictable thing was that the unpredictable would happen.

FTC suing to block despite reports that it was gonna pass. The CMA dropping the console SLC. The CMA then blocking based on the cloud. FTC being denied it's PI and the TRO made shorter. Then the CMA coming back to the negotiating table.

The overwhelming sentiment now is that this deal is going to happen. Wouldn't surprise me if something came out of left field to stop the deal.

It'll simply depend on how serious Microsoft are here in terms of acquiescing to the CMA.

They will not agree to divest CoD or King.

That much is as close to certain as you can get.

The CMA have made it clear that the initial proposal by Microsoft was insufficient pretty much on every level.

So we're all going to see what the middle ground is.

Microsoft have had months to plan this approach so you have to assume they have some serious concessions in mind.

 

[Fabieter]

So starting in 2024 is there any reason as to why Xbox Series consoles can't sell close to or around the same amount Nintendo Switch and the PS5 sells? If they can't, what will be their excuse next time?

Ea and t2 could still need a new owner tho.

 

[Solidus_T]

Yep the only way COD dies is if it kills itself. Much like how Battlefield and Halo have.

There needs to be a gap in that area of the market for there to be a desire for people to invest the necessary amount to build something that can serve as an alternative. Right now there isn't, anyone who is pumping money into trying to compete with current COD will just be wasting time and money.

Right, and given how much money COD and similar games make, even when compared to much, much better games like Elden Ring (which sold well) and other passion projects, its clear that great games are not all that is needed in this industry. If Sony gets pushed out by MS, there won't be another major player investing as much into gaming as them, and gaming could possibly be dominated by low-effort mobile model games.

 

[NickFire]

Also, no one is going to build a "COD killer." If it was possible, it would have been done by now. The massive infrastructure built around COD in Activision is part of the reason it is valued so highly.

I have no confidence in EA / Dice anymore. They seem far too obsessed with trends than making the best possible shooter these days.

Bungie has potential for a legit competitor though. Not in terms of annual releases, but as a live service game.

1) Destiny's bones (basic gunplay);
2) Modern earth based military shooter; and
3) New expansions / maps every few months,

could definitely compete if they fire on most cylinders. And if they got creative / bold on who the factions represent, you just never know what could happen.

 

[GHG]

The deal is technically done after today, MS will close it regardless of the future FTC litigation. However, the FTC could push to unwind the deal after the fact. Though they will need considerably better arguments than anything they brought forward so far.

If all they are going to do is bring the same people they brought to the table for the PI case then it will be nothing but a grand waste of time.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Fact is regulators have given the go ahead.

It's up to Sony to show just how committed they are now. They were willing to buy 20th Century Fox, before Disney outbid everyone. So if they wanna play bean counter and let MS have free license to eat their lunch then that in itself also shows how much they value PlayStation.

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

@Ass of Can Whooping melt so hard he switch side