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[Topher]

Would it even matter though?
That law dude from Stanford even said that if Microsoft decided to close on Monday (which is likely if they strike a deal with CMA), Court of Appeal would not have enough time to grant an appeal.

But I'm not law expert to know ramifications. Just citing real law experts.

No idea. Seems like a futile effort to me regardless.

 

[Ginzeen]

I've been reading this a lot. New script.

It's fact. Khan is done and dusted. Time for her to pack it in. She shot and she missed. She clearly needs more practice.

 

[MidGenRefresh]

Being able to put up trailers/billboards for CoD with the Xbox logo will be huuuge for Microsoft. And of course if they own it then they can do what they want with it. It could be that Playstation owners need to wait longer, miss out on content, have to pay more....or don't get to play it at all. I know they agreed to not make it exclusive but if they own it... who knows what could happen in the future.

This can be the ad for next Call of Duty and people would still buy it:

 

[onnextflix5]

How many years before they start messing about and start giving Xbox users preference, like increasing the price to $90, me thinks a few years, Sony needs to focus on their own games, bring in high quality exclusives, and gamers will stay, problem is they seem to have decreased their investment in exclusives, so will see what happens.

 

[Bojanglez]

Some of the wording in the judgement read like it comes straight from Microsoft's PR.

Their techniques are clearly very infectious.

She used a very specifically configured version of chatGPT

 

[Ginzeen]

Hopefully the CMA and MS come to an agreement by the end of the week. End this saga and let's rock out

 

[Unknown Soldier]

There is certainly an argument that COD is too big to make exclusive.

But as I said, I still have my doubts because it all depends on how much Microsoft is willing to take a hit in short-term revenue for longer-term gains. And if any money can sacrifice short-term revenue, it's Microsoft.

That's why I think if COD stays on PS now, it is probably more likely because of how high-profile the case has become.

But let's see how it all plays out.

Microsoft has a tendency towards hubris and it's fairly likely they will take CoD exclusive as soon as the existing marketing contract with Sony end in 2024. They'll do this even though they want to do more acquisitions and it would be smart to wait until after they have acquired EA, T2, Ubisoft, Embracer, CDPR, and Rockstar before taking everything exclusive at once. But MS can't help themselves, they'll take CoD exclusive right away and torpedo their own attempts at future acquisitions. They can't help being that rapacious, it's monopolist thinking. They almost nuked the ABK acquisition by taking Bethesda exclusive the millisecond that one closed instead of waiting a bit to get ABK first.

 

[Ginzeen]

Microsoft has a tendency towards hubris and it's fairly likely they will take CoD exclusive as soon as the existing marketing contract with Sony end in 2024. They'll do this even though they want to do more acquisitions and it would be smart to wait until after they have acquired EA, T2, Ubisoft, Embracer, CDPR, and Rockstar before taking everything exclusive at once. But MS can't help themselves, they'll take CoD exclusive right away and torpedo their own attempts at future acquisitions. They can't help being that rapacious, it's monopolist thinking. They almost nuked the ABK acquisition by taking Bethesda exclusive the millisecond that one closed instead of waiting a bit to get ABK first.

Nah MS won't be able to get another publisher for a long time. Only studios for now. Publishers are off the table for them. for now

 

[ToadMan]

Sorry I guess maybe I'm confused. This was just for the injunction right? This is a bad outcome for them, but like the actual FTC trial hasn't happened yet has it? Or am I totally not understanding things.

The expectation is that the FTC will abandon its administrative court hearing if it can't get a federal court to agree to a PI.

Largely because once companies have merged its difficult to separate them again and getting a court to actually want to do that is an uphill struggle.

But in principle they could go ahead with their case and retroactively use that result to apply an injunction on the merged entity.

 

[KungFucius]

There is certainly an argument that COD is too big to make exclusive.

But as I said, I still have my doubts because it all depends on how much Microsoft is willing to take a hit in short-term revenue for longer-term gains. And if any money can sacrifice short-term revenue, it's Microsoft.

That's why I think if COD stays on PS now, it is probably more likely because of how high-profile the case has become.

But let's see how it all plays out.

Microsoft is a publicly traded company. They can't just decide to leave billions on the table for some strategy without getting the support of the shareholders. They don't have an obligation to look good because of this case, they have an obligation to make their shareholders money. Most would agree that the way to best do that is to keep selling copies of COD on as many platforms as they can.

 

[zapper]

Nah MS won't be able to get another publisher for a long time. Only studios for now. Publishers are off the table for them. for now

and why? they have already stated that they will continue. if they are able to take abk they can take all, just offer all catalogs on their own subscription and cloud

 

[FalsettoVibe]

So would you say bungie games will be defacto exclusives as well when they don't get xbox next gen info early? This mindset is ridiculous.

Nah.... what's more ridiculous is not reading what I actually said. First off, I did not mention that as the ONLY reason. Please re-read. Second, using Bungie in your example makes no sense seeing as MS never said that they are not divulging next gen info to a competitor. That was Sony who said that.

 

[Ginzeen]

The expectation is that the FTC will abandon its administrative court hearing if it can't get a federal court to agree to a PI.

Largely because once companies have merged its difficult to separate them again and getting a court to actually want to do that is an uphill struggle.

But in principle they could go ahead with their case and retroactively use that result to apply an injunction on the merged entity.

Very unlikely. FTC never does that after losing a pi. Khan needs to pack it in and moved on. Also the CMA is back to the table looking to settle. And if that happens which is very likely this show is over. time to pull the curtains .

 

[systemr123]

A shitload of games I don't play mixed with games I already own. And who the fuck would buy a sub for Overwatch when it's F2P?

Sssssst, let the misguided fans be happy with their redundant games on Indiepass.

 

[Ginzeen]

and why? they have already stated that they will continue. if they are able to take abk they can take all, just offer all catalogs on their own subscription and cloud

They said that after the Bethesda acquisition. Not the ABK. Regulators wouldn't allow them keep buying all the big publishers because they would then have a strangle hold on the market. ABK doesn't give Xbox a strangle hold on the market.

 

[Gone]

100% COD will remain on PlayStation. 100% Microsoft will use marketing tricks and time / content exclusivity to convince casuals that XBOX is the one and only place to play COD.

Or Sony can sign the deal that guarantees there is parity between the two versions for a set amount of time (years).

 

[tryDEATH]

Bloomberg saying FTC leaning towards appealing...

FTC Leaning Toward Appealing Microsoft-Activision Loss

The US Federal Trade Commission is leaning toward appealing a federal judge’s ruling against the agency’s bid to block Microsoft Corp.’s $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc., according to a person familiar with the case.

www.bloomberg.com

So you think Phil Spencer lied under oath?

No, but he also didn't commit to a lifetime contract either only that he wont cancel CoD on PS and that they will ship it even on the next generation too after this one ends.

"I'll even raise my hand. I'll do whatever is required of me. We don't have some kind of secret plan. Standing here, I'm making a commitment not to cancel the release of Call of Duty on the PlayStation. Obviously, Sony must allow us to continue releasing games on their platform. If that doesn't change, I promise that we will continue to release future Call of Duty games on Sony's PlayStation 5."

That was his original quote to which after the break he added the following generation (PS6) as well.

 

[zapper]

They said that after the Bethesda acquisition. Not the ABK. Regulators wouldn't allow them keep buying all the big publishers because they would then have a strangle hold on the market. ABK doesn't give Xbox a strangle hold on the market.

well, we've seen how much regulators matter, less than nothing. even with t2 and ea they don't strangle the market if we count mobile, pc, services, cloud, all together, and they always have the excuse that it's good for consumers. I really don't see any problems now and they would be stupid to stop

 

[Three]

so the future are the services and the cloud according to the judge? I missed something because I didn't read the whole thing, but this decision doesn't stand imo

I don't understand where this "reputational harm" nonsense comes from but she must have ate up Phils words about it. If anything the reputation is gained by withholding it. Just look at Zenimax. 'No incentive' , 'it's not about removing games' and they modelled removal of all games from there and gave it the OK. Where was the concern for 'reputational harm' when doing that?

 

[Ozriel]

Quite literally the only thing that matters is potential harm. EC and CMA along with US court has decided the best selling IP every year for 13 years would have little impact, and around 5% would maybe switch console. The later has has even argued that Switch and PC are the same market.

Yeah it means it's fair game, have you actually followed this case or what? You see if ABK would have little impact then Take Two or anybody else would have much less impact. Much less. That's how MS wins this whole thing, it's not because they are in third place, it's because they have successfully argued that foreclosing the biggest IP every year for 13 years on the largest userbase it has would have little impact on the market. It's the one true positive take away for Sony, the only positive.

There's not a single Publisher or dev that would be a problem. Maybe Nintendo.

The nature of COD makes foreclosure a difficult decision. It's a multiplayer game with a large community, and reducing platforms could significant damage the IP.

A massive (mainly) single player game is a different proposition.

Does it?
I mean, yeah. GTA V sold gangbusters. But 180 million sales came during 10 year period. Which means 18 million copies per year on average.
Meanwhile, COD is selling 20-30 million copies per year easily and is monetised in a way that that is raking few billion dollars per year in revenue for ABK. Not to mention COD Mobile.

That's not how it works, though.
There's a relatively stable subset of console owners that buy COD, and they consistently buy each year's flavor of COD. The 18 million per year average buyers of GTA that you've computed are unique buyers.

A much larger % of console owners have played GTA vs COD. Any estimate of 'harm' or 'potential switchers' from foreclosure would take that into consideration.

Unlikely that anyone would be allowed to buy Take Two without guaranteeing continued access

 

[Ozriel]

Ok last post from me tonight; I will be surprised if the FTC doesn't contest the Judge statement bolded below on the basis of "factual error".



Simply put, she f***d up. She either didn't understand or forgot during her write-up that other developers and publishers don't make console hardware (This explains why she was getting on the FTC about Sony). Sony is the only other console manufacturer under the supposition - agreed upon by both FTC and the court - that Gen 9 console market includes only Sony and Microsoft. Therefore, it IS merger-specific.


Ok, I've done my part in keeping this beautiful mess of a thread going. Goodnight!

How is it 'merger specific' when Sony needs to send the devkits for Minecraft anyway?

The devkit story was always a silly point, since at worst this would only impact the first, cross gen version of COD on PS6. And there'd be plenty of time post hardware reveal (when hardware is already set in stone) and the usual Q4 COD launch.

Edit: hey A arvfab keep those emojis coming. I suppose it's therapeutic

 

[Godot25]

There's a relatively stable subset of console owners that buy COD, and they consistently buy each year's flavor of COD. The 18 million per year average buyers of GTA that you've computed are unique buyers.

Yes and no.
GTA V had staggered release...PS3/360 version first, PC version second, PS4/Xbox One version third and Series/PS5 version fourth. It is very likely, that many people owns multiple version of same game to keep up with current version. They are counted as *more than one* copy sold but it is the same user...

 

[Topher]

No, but he also didn't commit to a lifetime contract either only that he wont cancel CoD on PS and that they will ship it even on the next generation too after this one ends.

"I'll even raise my hand. I'll do whatever is required of me. We don't have some kind of secret plan. Standing here, I'm making a commitment not to cancel the release of Call of Duty on the PlayStation. Obviously, Sony must allow us to continue releasing games on their platform. If that doesn't change, I promise that we will continue to release future Call of Duty games on Sony's PlayStation 5."

That was his original quote to which after the break he added the following generation (PS6) as well.

Right.....but previously you laid it out like there was, in fact, some "secret plan" to make the game exclusive. You can't have it both ways.

They will be using GP and an earlier release date/windows for maps, guns, modes, and do exclusive beta's to leech users of off PS in the next 3-5 years, which are all the things Sony/PS have been doing. Around that time period they'll look into making the game exclusive if they're able to grow CoD's player base on Xbox/PC so that they don't lose a ton of money from PS gamers.

 

[aliadiere25]

Snippets from the judge's ruling file. She did not find FTC's reliance on Ryan's testimony compelling.

Because she's an idiot and really biased. She probably made her decision before it started.

How the hell she can sit there and openly say it's good for future gamers if Xbox can potentially take it away from Nintendo and PlayStation players? She wants to protect the consumers, yet she's basically forcing Nintendo and Sony players to go out and spend a crap load of money so they can play their beloved franchise on Microsoft.

I've always felt that a franchise or a company that wasn't exclusive before should never be exclusive even after being sold.

 

[Ozriel]

Yes and no.
GTA V had staggered release...PS3/360 version first, PC version second, PS4/Xbox One version third and Series/PS5 version fourth. It is very likely, that many people owns multiple version of same game to keep up with current version. They are counted as *more than one* copy sold but it is the same user...

Series/PS5 version is an update over the last gen version. Not counted as a separate sale.

And while a substantial amount was sold in the PS3 / 360 gen, the game sold 140 million copies between 2015 and 2023. A staggering amount.

 

[Three]

How is it 'merger specific' when Sony needs to send the devkits for Minecraft anyway?

Sony doesn't send dev kits for minecraft. According to MS's favorite reporter MS doesn't even send devkits for 3rd parties for the same reason but people forget that. Somebody even went back and deleted a tweet . MS used the judge's ignorance of a competitive market there to good effect by making it seem like this was Sony's problem but competing on console hardware is all about this and MS do it too.

The devkit story was always a silly point, since at worst this would only impact the first, cross gen version of COD on PS6. And there'd be plenty of time post hardware reveal (when hardware is already set in stone) and the usual Q4 COD launch.

Edit: hey A arvfab keep those emojis coming. I suppose it's therapeutic

With Minecraft, 3 years later and PS5 devkits now public knowledge and they still haven't done a PS5 version.

 

[Thirty7ven]

The nature of COD makes foreclosure a difficult decision. It's a multiplayer game with a large community, and reducing platforms could significant damage the IP.

A massive (mainly) single player game is a different proposition.

Actually single player games have even less weight according to regulators, which is why of all Xbox acquired IP, only COD has become a sticking point.

You're better off arguing that Sony doesn't have the money, because after this they absolutely have open road to consolidate. Nintendo would be the only merger that would face severe scrutiny.

 

[KingT731]

You know who can do all that right now? An independent 3rd party Activision. Hell that's what they are doing right now today to Sony's benefit.

I find this to be a "not smart" statement. Having a successful platform attracts business partners....

 

[aliadiere25]

so the future are the services and the cloud according to the judge? I missed something because I didn't read the whole thing, but this decision doesn't stand imo

The judge has no clue what she's talking about. Has she not seen the sales of the Nintendo Switch, PS4 and the PS5. Heck, if weren't for shortages, the PS5 would have sold way more now.

 

[RoboFu]

The judge has no clue what she's talking about. Has she not seen the sales of the Nintendo Switch, PS4 and the PS5. Heck, if weren't for shortages, the PS5 would have sold way more now.

Nah in 20 years everything will just be service apps. It's basically already become the norm for media. All TVs are smart TVs now. Hardware is getting smaller and faster. The line of skill / budget / time vs graphics is hitting gaming hard now. The writing is in the wall for both dedicated console fans and physical media fans.

 

[Jigsaah]

I mean at this point, who is even left that will have an impact. Square seems like a waste of money for Sony but maybe to prevent Xbox from buying them and making them a multiplat studio for final fantasy again.

I've learned over the past day that Microsoft was on the cusp of buying Square, but then found out about Sony's dealings with Bethesda and pivoted on a dime to grab Bethesda. That's some cutthroat shit and I wouldn't be surprised if it basically seals any chance Microsoft will buy Square anytime soon. Golden opportunity for Sony.

 

[Godot25]

The judge has no clue what she's talking about. Has she not seen the sales of the Nintendo Switch, PS4 and the PS5. Heck, if weren't for shortages, the PS5 would have sold way more now.

Nah. She has a point.
Despite PS5 selling gangbusters, overall console market is not growing.

Even if you are only counting PlayStation and Xbox
Xbox+PS2 - 179+ million consoles
X360+PS3 - 172+ million consoles
XOne+PS4 - 172+ million consoles
Series X/S+PS5 - 58+ million consoles currently

If you also count Nintendo
PS2+Xbox+GameCube - 200+ million consoles
X360+PS3+Wii - 273+ million consoles
XOne+PS4+WiiU - 186+ million consoles

But people tend to forget that Switch is WiiU and 3DS replacement. So if you add 3DS to the overall numbers, console market is clearly not growing.
More like...shifting within.

It's funny to point to PS4 sales when talking about growth of console market when PS4 sold 117 million consoles while it's predecessor PS2 sold 155+ million consoles.

 

[Chiggs]

Golden opportunity for Sony.

They're pretty much friends with benefits, so if the price is right, why not?

 

[Bernardougf]

Really cant wait for this forum reactions when COD goes full exclusive next gen as a launch game for the next xbox ... IF not earlier.

Dont @ me since that its no point in discussing this, its all speculation and the same old arguments from both parts.

But they should open a bet in vegas about keeping all COD multiplat at least until the end of next gen and see if anyone here has the balls to put their life savings on Phils Spencer's and MS words/intentions.

 

[Edmund]

I think Sony is fucked whether COD remains on Playstation or not.

If COD remains on Playstation, every sale of COD will make MS stronger (30% of proceeds to Sony, and 70% to MS). MS will then have even more money and power to price Sony out of the industry.

If COD is taken away from Playstation, Sony will be severely damaged as they don't have the proceeds from MTX from Call of Duty to fund their 1st party exclusives. Also, I foresee a decline in sales and popularity in EA FC 24. Losing the Fifa license is a big deal and this will lead to a decline in sales and hence lower MTX profits from EA FC 24.

Sony is fucked either way. And honestly, I don't know which is worse.

 

[Jigsaah]

So if Sony bought take2 would they be required to keep bringing gta and red dead to competitors? GTA makes COD look tiny.

I think the yearly release vs decade release schedule would allow Sony to keep GTA if they wanted. Question is, would they want to? They could keep it, as it is a guaranteed system seller and lose out a bit on Xbox and PC revenue. They could time it out, wait for saturation to peak then release it on other platforms.

 

[adamsapple]

Because she's an idiot and really biased.

I've been reading this a lot. New script.

Agreed.

 

[Makoto-Yuki]

This can be the ad for next Call of Duty and people would still buy it:

ok? i didn't say nobody would buy it lol.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Nah in 20 years everything will just be service apps. It's basically already become the norm for media. All TVs are smart TVs now. Hardware is getting smaller and faster. The line of skill / budget / time vs graphics is hitting gaming hard now. The writing is in the wall for both dedicated console fans and physical media fans.

Interactive media is different from the rest of passive media, and the reason it is worth more than all the others combined.

While console priced hardware can show advantages to core gamers over other delivery methods, the market will continue to grow in absolute terms while gaming continues to grow with generational shifts.

 

[tryDEATH]

Right.....but previously you laid it out like there was, in fact, some "secret plan" to make the game exclusive. You can't have it both ways.

Well yeah, that's why I said it wasn't an infinite commitment.

There is nothing "secret" they'll re-evaluate their position at a later time as its their right, Sony could have avoided this scenario had they accepted the 10 year deal instead they have given MS wiggle room by not agreeing to a commitment and having Phil/Satya word under oath, which has no definitive number attached to it.

You can either believe everything Phil said under oath and trust him or call him a liar while he's under oath, but you can't pick and choose when it suits one narrative and ignore in the next.

 

[saintjules]

so the future are the services and the cloud according to the judge? I missed something because I didn't read the whole thing, but this decision doesn't stand imo

I am curious to know if the Judge is secretly a gamer to come up with that conclusion lol.

I think Consoles will be around for a few more generations before it all goes to cloud gaming. I wonder how much those subs to get on platforms are gonna cost if Consoles are no longer made.

 

[Mattyp]

I checked in two pages in when everyone doubted I check in 70,000 responses later for those that stayed solid

 

[Zathalus]

The judge has no clue what she's talking about. Has she not seen the sales of the Nintendo Switch, PS4 and the PS5. Heck, if weren't for shortages, the PS5 would have sold way more now.

Is it growing? During the 7th Gen, home consoles sold 270 million +, while handheld sold 236 million + for a total of over 506 million sold.

8th gen didn't do anywhere near those numbers. Home consoles are around 188 million sold, while handheld was around 90 million sold. That's a total of 278 million sold. Even if you include the Switch up to end of 2020, that only brings it up to 355 million sold (250 million home console only).

Console unit sales does not appear to be growing. Even if you only focus on home consoles growth does not appear to be occuring either. Revenue is increasing, but that is thanks to the rise of GaaS, subscriptions, and microtransactions.

 

[Clintizzle]

Am I remembering correctly that Sony may have to withold PS6 dev kits if this thing goes through?

Totally makes sense why Sony would need to do that but it also brings into question game quality at release.

 

[ToadMan]

I think Sony is fucked whether COD remains on Playstation or not.

If COD remains on Playstation, every sale of COD will make MS stronger (30% of proceeds to Sony, and 70% to MS). MS will then have even more money and power to price Sony out of the industry.

Wasn't the split for COD 80/20? Or was that just the Xbox split?

Sony is fucked either way. And honestly, I don't know which is worse.

 

[adamsapple]

Am I remembering correctly that Sony may have to withold PS6 dev kits if this thing goes through?

Totally makes sense why Sony would need to do that but it also brings into question game quality at release.

They said they won't be able to send them EARLY, they will still send them.

But, yes, it sounds the kind of thing that will have an impact on the first one or two games of a new generation because the devs don't have the kits early.

May force them to just be BC versions instead of native.

Sony will have created the "They will put out degraded versions" themselves in that scenario, if it happens.

 

[Jigsaah]

I think Sony is fucked whether COD remains on Playstation or not.

If COD remains on Playstation, every sale of COD will make MS stronger (30% of proceeds to Sony, and 70% to MS). MS will then have even more money and power to price Sony out of the industry.

If COD is taken away from Playstation, Sony will be severely damaged as they don't have the proceeds from MTX from Call of Duty to fund their 1st party exclusives. Also, I foresee a decline in sales and popularity in EA FC 24. Losing the Fifa license is a big deal and this will lead to a decline in sales and hence lower MTX profits from EA FC 24.

Sony is fucked either way. And honestly, I don't know which is worse.

If Microsoft can buy Sony out of business now, having more money doesn't really mean much. They don't need more money to do this. They already have it.

That being said, obviously Microsoft is in it to make more money. They are expected to put COD on gamepass which I believe will cannibalize sales. This is why they will keep releasing on Playstation and eventually Switch. Gamepass will not grow enough just because COD is there.

You're right that COD revenue seems to have been able to fund several AAA marquee games. However, COD is one game. 30% would actually be an INCREASE in their revenue as well if it is to be believed that Sony were getting strong armed like Bobby did Microsoft. I don't know the details, but I believe Bobby demanded an 80/20 split for Microsoft. If Sony had a similar deal, a 70/30 split would still be better than what Bobby was doing to Sony.

I dont know much about Fifa, but let's keep our fingers crossed on that.

 

[Makoto-Yuki]

Am I remembering correctly that Sony may have to withold PS6 dev kits if this thing goes through?

Totally makes sense why Sony would need to do that but it also brings into question game quality at release.

why would they need to do that? not trying to be funny but genuinely curious.

 

[Topher]

You can either believe everything Phil said under oath and trust him or call him a liar while he's under oath, but you can't pick and choose when it suits one narrative and ignore in the next.

So I shouldn't follow your example. Yeah, I agree.

 

[Jigsaah]

They're pretty much friends with benefits, so if the price is right, why not?

Yea I don't see honestly how this doesn't happen.