Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Dang S Sneakysnake , are you really popping emojis on posts in April? You've got a lot of catching up to do, my friend.


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Matthew Broderick GIF
 
Dick Jones said:
Because when it finally goes to CAT, the CMA can claim that they were reasonable in giving MS another opportunity. Civil Service logic with an appeal, meet the appellant and go through the motions to show you tried. It becomes part of the report.
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But they don't need to do that.

They've already listened to MS and reached their conclusion. They are under absolutely no obligation to earn bonus points by talking to MS again. That makes zero sense.

Something material *has* to have changed. And it's a change that has lead the CMA to think there is an opportunity to resolve their concerns. No one knows what that is. It might be a significant cloud concession on MS' part. It could be a structural remedy for ABK in the UK. No one knows.

But it has to be something.

The big giveaway was their using the term 'public interest' in the statement.
 
Ogbert said:
But they don't need to do that.

They've already listened to MS and reached their conclusion. They are under absolutely no obligation to earn bonus points by talking to MS again. That makes zero sense.

Something material *has* to have changed. And it's a change that has lead the CMA to think there is an opportunity to resolve their concerns. No one knows what that is. It might be a significant cloud concession on MS' part. It could be a structural remedy for ABK in the UK. No one knows.

But it has to be something.

The big giveaway was their using the term 'public interest' in the statement.
Click to expand...
Maybe they want to copperfasten their win, or they could look to keeping MS ABK separate (post acquisition) while the process runs on so its easier to untangle them when the CMA win.
 
jm89 said:
Having a read over all of todays events.

Microsoft has basically inadvertently admitted they didn't stand a chance with the appeal.

Essentially handing some insane confidence boost to the CMA right now.

CMA basically can kill the deal right after the new probe, and MS probably won't have the appetite to fight this and certainly not abk.

If a new probe takes what 3-4 months, then add in another possibly lets say 2-3 months to get an appeal going, and if it gets sent back to the CMA add in another few months we are looking at all the way to 2024.

Basically microsoft are at the mercy of the CMA right now to get this done quick and in their favour.
Click to expand...
This is some world class confirmation bias, right here...
 
Topher said:
That isn't a divestiture.
Click to expand...

Well like I said, we don't know what kind of divestiture they've offered, but I'm using that example as something that will definitively take away the cloud concern in the UK market.
 
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NickFire said:
Regarding your last point - I agree that non-UK nations do not automatically have to review the original deal if MS cuts a deal directly with UK about post-merger operations. But if it is the actual MS and AB deal being modified, I would disagree with you. Might just be the modification that needs reviewing, but I just don't see how you can change the terms of something that was approved by a sovereign government without them reviewing the change as well.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I did say 'could' lead to having to go back to
every regulator.

Obviously, if the restructure involves a completely new framework for delivering Gamepass globally then it's back to square one. But it would be crazy for them to consider that.

My assumption is a cloud specific restructure that addresses CMA concerns and can then be accepted with the already provided remedies.
 
Ogbert said:
But they don't need to do that.

They've already listened to MS and reached their conclusion. They are under absolutely no obligation to earn bonus points by talking to MS again. That makes zero sense.

Something material *has* to have changed. And it's a change that has lead the CMA to think there is an opportunity to resolve their concerns. No one knows what that is. It might be a significant cloud concession on MS' part. It could be a structural remedy for ABK in the UK. No one knows.

But it has to be something.

The big giveaway was their using the term 'public interest' in the statement.
Click to expand...
This isn't the first time the CMA has been open to structural remedies post Phase 2 decision.
globalcompetitionreview.com

CMA considers structural remedy in foam deal after first-ever Phase II concession

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority is considering a divestiture proposal from two foam products manufacturers after the pair became the first-ever merging parties to concede during a Phase II probe that their deal significantly harmed competition.
globalcompetitionreview.com globalcompetitionreview.com
 
XesqueVara said:
Smaller Fish? Bro thats now how it works every deal is a case, If you choose to fight a case without the ammo to back it you are just wasting time.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by "ammo"? Are you referring to legal facts/circumstances/precedent that support their position, or satisfactory personnel, expertise, skill level, etc. to match private sector?
 
Pelta88 said:
The problem with this statement is that they're not renegotiating.

They've publicly reiterated that their decision still stands. Microsoft has submitted a new proposal and asked for the CAT appeal process to be paused. Fanboys have turned that Microsoft request into "The CMA has to renegotiate." Like they give a fuck about events beyond their own sovereign borders.
Click to expand...
That's complete bullshit though.
"We note that the CMA (Competition and Markets Authority) and Microsoft have today put a joint submission to the Competition Appeal Tribunal to pause the litigation in the UK, to prioritise work on proposals from Microsoft to seek to address the CMA's competition concerns," a government spokesperson said.
Click to expand...
 
adamsapple said:
Well like I said, we don't know what kind of divestiture they've offered, but I'm using that example as something that will definitively take away the cloud concern in the UK market.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't your example actually be a divestiture though? A divestiture is literally the sale of a product line, division, etc. of the corporation. Removing xcloud from UK isn't that at all.
 
Chukhopops said:
That's complete bullshit though.
Click to expand...
"Whilst merging parties don't have the opportunity to put forward new remedies once a final report has been issued, they can choose to restructure a deal, which can lead to a new merger investigation," a spokesperson said.

"Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis. These discussions remain at an early stage and the nature and timing of next steps will be determined in due course.

"While both parties have requested a pause in Microsoft's appeal to allow these discussions to take place, the CMA decision set out in its final report still stands."
Click to expand...
From the CMA themselves:
www.ign.com

CMA Warns Microsoft's Activision Blizzard Renegotiation Would Require Whole New Investigation - IGN

A new statement from the CMA warns Microsoft that a new proposal could result in the regulator launching "a new merger investigation".
www.ign.com www.ign.com
 
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Topher said:
Shouldn't your example actually be a divestiture though? A divestiture is literally the sale of a product line, division, etc. of the corporation. Removing xcloud from UK isn't that at all.
Click to expand...

A divestiture of service then, not a department. Cause we know they're not going to be divestituring Activision, and that wouldn't qualify as a "small" divestiture either.

James Sawyer Ford said:
Divest means to sell a part of ATVI

Unless they are being way too cavalier with their use of the term "divest"
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Maybe, maybe they don't mean it in a literal sense. I guess we won't find out what was offered until CMA makes an announcement on it or something.
 
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Dick Jones said:
Maybe they want to copperfasten their win, or they could look to keeping MS ABK separate (post acquisition) while the process runs on so its easier to untangle them when the CMA win.
Click to expand...
Yes, I did read somewhere that this was being mooted. Allow them to preemptively ringfence ABK UK so, should CMA concerns linger, it could be easily sold off.

That's a pretty huge operation though. Would likely boil MS' piss.
 
Ogbert said:
Agreed. I did say 'could' lead to having to go back to
every regulator.

Obviously, if the restructure involves a completely new framework for delivering Gamepass globally then it's back to square one. But it would be crazy for them to consider that.

My assumption is a cloud specific restructure that addresses CMA concerns and can then be accepted with the already provided remedies.
Click to expand...
Do you think CMA would soften their stance on behavioral remedies? Perhaps say something like they were initially hesitant, but the EU's joint oversight satisfies their concerns about having to monitor / enforce? That might be an easy save facing measure I would think. Maybe not with some of us that are against the deal, but probably enough for London's papers.

As an aside, perhaps the CMA thinks this case just died because they think AB walks after 7/18?
 
Chukhopops said:
That's complete bullshit though.
Click to expand...

Reading is fundamental.

"We note that the CMA (Competition and Markets Authority) and Microsoft have today put a joint submission to the Competition Appeal Tribunal to pause the litigation in the UK, to prioritise work on proposals from Microsoft to seek to address the CMA's competition concerns," a government spokesperson said.
Click to expand...
 
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adamsapple said:
A divestiture of service then, not a department. Cause we know they're not going to be divestituring Activision, and that wouldn't qualify as a "small" divestiture either.
Click to expand...
That's a remedy. MS submitted a remedy and it was denied. The CMA is open for a new restructure, however.
 
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adamsapple said:
A divestiture of service then, not a department. Cause we know they're not going to be divestituring Activision, and that wouldn't qualify as a "small" divestiture either.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't either. Frankly I'm having a hard time thinking of what it is that could be sold off that is "small, discrete".

Of course, we have no reason to think that was accurate considering CNBC goofed up its "status" of it all.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
From the CMA themselves:
www.ign.com

CMA Warns Microsoft's Activision Blizzard Renegotiation Would Require Whole New Investigation - IGN

A new statement from the CMA warns Microsoft that a new proposal could result in the regulator launching "a new merger investigation".
www.ign.com www.ign.com
Click to expand...
Reading these quotes, it seems like Microsoft is changing the deal they made with Activision. Microsoft does not seem to be changing the delivery system (xCloud/Game Pass).

And if it is a "new" deal, then the CMA will look at it from scratch. Makes sense.

Is there a possibility that Microsoft may only be buying Blizzard and King as per this new deal? Would be in-line with their goals of mobile expansion. And divesting Activision will also be approvable by the CMA; they have clearly listed it. And MS expects CMA to accept their new "suggestion."

But leaving COD behind is such a huge thing, I can't imagine MS doing it.
 
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Heisenberg007 said:
Reading these quotes, it seems like Microsoft is changing the deal they made with Activision. Microsoft does not seem to be changing the delivery system (xCloud/Game Pass).

And if it is a "new" deal, then the CMA will look at it from scratch. Makes sense.

Is there a possibility that Microsoft may only be buying Blizzard and King as per this new deal? Would be in-line with their goals of mobile expansion. And divesting Activision will also be approvable by the CMA; they have clearly listed it. And MS expects CMA to accept their new "suggestion."

But leaving COD behind is such a huge thing, I can't imagine MS doing it.
Click to expand...
That's not happening. I would be shocked, if so. But, nah.
 
Pelta88 said:
Reading is fundamental.
Click to expand...
Yeah it is fundamental indeed cause it doesn't change the fact that the pausing of the litigation isn't a one-sided thing from MS but a joint decision that both parties had to agree on.

Obviously the goal of the negotiation is to address the CMA's concerns, what else would it be about?
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Reading these quotes, it seems like Microsoft is changing the deal they made with Activision. Microsoft does not seem to be changing the delivery system (xCloud/Game Pass).

And if it is a "new" deal, then the CMA will look at it from scratch. Makes sense.

Is there a possibility that Microsoft may only be buying Blizzard and King as per this new deal? Would be in-line with their goals of mobile expansion. And divesting Activision will also be approvable by the CMA; they have clearly listed it. And MS expects CMA to accept their new "suggestion."

But leaving COD behind is such a huge thing, I can't imagine MS doing it.
Click to expand...

We've seen their behind the scenes receipts. Despite their public comments, this deal is about COD. There is no way they leave that ip behind.
 
NickFire said:
Do you think CMA would soften their stance on behavioral remedies?
Click to expand...
I don't know. I don't *think* so.

They've been quite clear about the fact that this next round of discussions does not involve new remedies. Of course, lawyers being lawyers, where does a 'restructure' end and a 'remedy' begin.

Using the term restructure suggests a fundamental revision that is ongoing rather than temporary. So Phil saying 15 years licensing isn't going to cut it. But separating cloud provision from Gamepass might. I'm sure MS would look to add in clauses that suggest this applies until the market has matured and competition has matured, but CMA might stick to their guns and tell them they can't bundle the two.

So this restructure could still really sting MS.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
From the CMA themselves:
www.ign.com

CMA Warns Microsoft's Activision Blizzard Renegotiation Would Require Whole New Investigation - IGN

A new statement from the CMA warns Microsoft that a new proposal could result in the regulator launching "a new merger investigation".
www.ign.com www.ign.com
Click to expand...
Same as above - obviously the goal of the negotiation is to alter parts of the deal until an agreement is found.

Doesn't change the fact that pausing the litigation isn't something that started only from MS, as was implied in the post I responded to.
 
Ogbert said:
But they don't need to do that.

They've already listened to MS and reached their conclusion. They are under absolutely no obligation to earn bonus points by talking to MS again. That makes zero sense.

Something material *has* to have changed. And it's a change that has lead the CMA to think there is an opportunity to resolve their concerns. No one knows what that is. It might be a significant cloud concession on MS' part. It could be a structural remedy for ABK in the UK. No one knows.

But it has to be something.

The big giveaway was their using the term 'public interest' in the statement.
Click to expand...
Exactly. That "public interest" is telling.Im unconvinced CMA is stopping it. Deal is getting closed.
 
Chukhopops said:
Same as above - obviously the goal of the negotiation is to alter parts of the deal until an agreement is found.

Doesn't change the fact that pausing the litigation isn't something that started only from MS, as was implied in the post I responded to.
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Never said it was. Yesterday's narrative was that the CMA got cold feet and were the ones to open up the dialogue.

It seems MS approached them with a remedy, the remedy was denied since you can't restructure a current deal after their decision has been made, but, they are open to a new deal restructure which both agreed to pause the CAT litigation to do so.
 
adamsapple said:
Well like I said, we don't know what kind of divestiture they've offered, but I'm using that example as something that will definitively take away the cloud concern in the UK market.
Click to expand...

But that also doesn't help keep competition in the UK. If Microsoft just pulls xCloud in the UK, this means that consumers have less choice. This is still proof that Microsoft acquiring Activision leads to less options for the consumer, at least when it comes to cloud. Microsoft isn't going to pull out of the cloud market in the UK and then allow Activision content to be on Amazon Luna (just as an example).
 
Is there a scenario where rotw gets activision games on GPU whilst the UK gets fuck all?

And is there also a scenario where the cost of GPU increases to pay for it (including UK) while we get fuck all from it?
 
Ogbert said:
Yes, I did read somewhere that this was being mooted. Allow them to preemptively ringfence ABK UK so, should CMA concerns linger, it could be easily sold off.

That's a pretty huge operation though. Would likely boil MS' piss.
Click to expand...
I think more keep ABK fully separate from MS until the CAT decision. Worldwide not just UK
 
Nitty_Grimes said:
Is there a scenario where rotw gets activision games on GPU whilst the UK gets fuck all?

And is there also a scenario where the cost of GPU increases to pay for it (including UK) while we get fuck all from it?
Click to expand...
IFireflyl said:
But that also doesn't help keep competition in the UK. If Microsoft just pulls xCloud in the UK, this means that consumers have less choice. This is still proof that Microsoft acquiring Activision leads to less options for the consumer, at least when it comes to cloud. Microsoft isn't going to pull out of the cloud market in the UK and then allow Activision content to be on Amazon Luna (just as an example).
Click to expand...
 
IFireflyl said:
But that also doesn't help keep competition in the UK. If Microsoft just pulls xCloud in the UK, this means that consumers have less choice. This is still proof that Microsoft acquiring Activision leads to less options for the consumer, at least when it comes to cloud. Microsoft isn't going to pull out of the cloud market in the UK and then allow Activision content to be on Amazon Luna (just as an example).
Click to expand...
The restructure wouldn't mean MS leaving the UK. It would mean MS' cloud services not being bundled with Gamepass. Presumably it would have to be accessed separately.

But that's very likely the exact argument MS will make. How does this help your consumers?

It's the balance between fair competition and consumer access. It's why we're all absolutely outraged by the Amazon monopoly that brings us exceedingly cheap products to our door.
 
keep holding out hope for the cma I guess. This is over to me. Deal will close. CMA could of did nothing, yet they chose to pause the CAT. It's all worked out already. Time to end this.
 
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