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[Heisenberg007]

At this point, the only way this case is going to surprise us if:

• Microsoft announces that they are closing over the CMA on July 17 (so we argue for about 100 pages on that)
• Then on July 16, Phil Spencer's and Judge Corley's sex tape gets leaked in which they are also talking about denying FTC the PI

 

[hlm666]

but I wouldn't know, because I live in Australia, where none of the cloud platforms actually function.

Geforce now and xcloud are here in Aus. I played around with both during the pandemic lockdowns on a 50/25mbps cable internet connection. I played completely through that ubisoft fenyx immortals game on xcloud last year, the biggest issue I had with that was it was basically a console level experience and I had to use a gamepad, latency wise it was all playable, I could parry and dodge and all easy enough. Geforce now was way better though, I played a few different things on that with a mouse and keyboard and cyberpunk via geforce now was really close to the local experience. I'm planning on playing the DLC at the end of the year via geforce now on the 4080 tier because my pc pulling 600+ watts in summer in qld will suck, will also help out the power bill if it's a long expansion like blood and wine.

 

[GHG]

Circus about to end this Monday I hope.

If they close the deal on Monday with matters still unresolved with the FTC and CMA then the circus is likely still go on regardless.

I've said it before, but I'd actually like to see them go ahead and ignore the regulators.

 

[Bungie]

I agree with them in some ways.
Positives for Xbox? COD etc in GP, maybe some exclusives when the studios arnt working on COD.
Other than that? King sucks. I don't like Blizzard games, and while I love COD, that's one IP.

Microsoft paid 110 million for Ninja Theory. They could have bought 60 Ninja Theory's for the same price as ABK. They paid 7 Billion for Zenimax. They could have bought 9 Zenimaxs for the same price.

I would take 60 Ninja Theory's or 9 Zenimaxs over ABK. They would be bringing out AAA exclusive game every couple of weeks.

But 69 of them don't exist I'd say it's well worth it, you disliking Blizzard might make it seem like it's not but the established fan-bases they have alone is a win for MS. To me this seems like a safe bet because all these studio has passed the ultimate tests which is a consistent cash flow, keeping huge player bases, & there's something here for everyone when acquiring ABK.

 

[Iced Arcade]

Like I Said... This rollercoaster has a few more loops lol

 

[Ronin_7]

If they close the deal on Monday with matters still unresolved with the FTC and CMA then the circus is likely still go on regardless.

I've said it before, but I'd actually like to see them go ahead and ignore the regulators.

Will Microsoft ignore the regulators? I mean it's Microsoft.

I work for a mb company & we do courses about regulation markets etc and how we need to comply this & that.

I'd be surprised if MS isn't trying to talk with the CMA to purpose a new deal or something.

 

[GHG]

Nasdaq-100 is a set of 100 companies that form a composite index.

This news is saying they're removing ATVI from that index and replacing it with another stock.

They're probably doing that in expectation ATVI will be acquired but that's not the only reason they may do this.

Anyway it's not that ATVI stock is being delisted from the exchange, just removed from an index because the index managers don't feel ATVI meets the criteria for the index anymore.

While all of this is going on it doesn't meet the criteria because of the disconnected nature of trade. As it stands Activision makes up 0.42% of the index.

For arguments sake let's say there are 1 billion dollars of inflows into the Nasdaq composite (via QQQ for example), that's roughly 4.2 million dollars that are supposed to be distributed towards ATVI. Understandably, any fund manager would be hesitant to execute on that at the moment and as evidenced by how the beta has tracked since the announcement of the deal they are not adhering to this. That will only get worse as we get closer to any crunch time.

Could they go ahead and attempt to close the deal on Monday regardless? Yes, however there are other reasons for ATVI to be removed from the index for now while this is all still in process.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Posted ?

Occurred to me listening again (at 4:43 onwards he bigs up Diablo 4, then Candy Crush and is a little more reserved about CoD, when pushing the free to play line, which felt like he was downplaying CoD because - other than maybe the mobile version - it might not be part of the merger anymore and doesn't want to over sell its importance in context of the merger.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Not good right now. I have a feeling I will pay $70 to buy the game. Then I will invest in ATVI stock to make some money and knowing my bad luck the deal will get blocked even though logic tells me the deal should be approved.

Lol peasant

 

[Heisenberg007]

If they close the deal on Monday with matters still unresolved with the FTC and CMA then the circus is likely still go on regardless.

I've said it before, but I'd actually like to see them go ahead and ignore the regulators.

I'm 99% sure they won't close before July 18 now.

Would be fun though. I'm exhausted now and just still in this for fun and giggles, so I'd really love to see them try and then the CMA to kick their butts That, or the Phil/Corley sex tape thing, which I'd really prefer over anything

 

[Edmund]

Don't buy it.

It's shit. And boring.

Dropped it before finishing the campaign, and I have thousands of hours in D2 and D3.

My main issue with diablo 4 is the level scaling. I'm still at act 1 since day 1 and have no motivation to continue. Rather play street fighter 6 and Final Fantasy 16.

 

[Heisenberg007]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

 

[Kenneth Haight]

Microsoft-Activision faces fresh blow to bid to buy Call of Duty maker

The Federal Trade Commission's request to block the Microsoft-Activision deal was rejected by a judge.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[0neAnd0nly]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

Well, certainly ain't happening that way, then.

 

[GHG]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

No call of duty for "free" then?

 

[skit_data]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

Does that even adress CMAs main reasons for blocking even the slightest?
Seems extremely unlikely, and that is before taking into account that it's Pachter saying this.

Edit: Feels like he somehow mixed up the FTCs issues with the CMAs issues.

 

[Heisenberg007]

No call of duty for "free" then?

Riky and other UK Xbox gamers:

 

[harry mason 1989]

 

[Heisenberg007]

That's not what it means though. It's getting removed from an index, not the stock exchange.

The deal may very well close on Monday, but this particular development has nothing to do with it.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

No call of duty for "free" then?

A bit offtopic, but your Florian Mueller profile picture creeps me the fuck out.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Damn, the journalists are back at it. Look at this disingenuous and factually incorrect reporting.

The title says "Stock Exchange" (which is incorrect). The subheading says "Stock index" (which is correct). And the Windows Central stupid writer thinks they are both the same.

Xbox deal could be closing soon, Activision Blizzard to leave Stock Exchange

The Call of Duty and Candy Crush publisher is expected to leave the NASDAQ-100 stock index on July 17.

www.windowscentral.com

 

[Kenneth Haight]

As someone who plays basically no activision/blizzard games I have no horse in this race. So funny seeing the amount of corporate love some have, borderline insanity

 

[Jigsaah]

Damn, the journalists are back at it. Look at this disingenuous and factually incorrect reporting.

The title says "Stock Exchange" (which is incorrect). The subheading says "Stock index" (which is correct). And the Windows Central stupid writer thinks they are both the same.

Xbox deal could be closing soon, Activision Blizzard to leave Stock Exchange

The Call of Duty and Candy Crush publisher is expected to leave the NASDAQ-100 stock index on July 17.

www.windowscentral.com

What the significance if they leavethe stock exchange vs the stock index. I don't understand why this is indicative of anything.

I assume it would mean that Activision plans on being bought, meaning the deal goes through, but according to your post, that would only be a valid conclusion if they were to leave the Stock Exchange, not the index?

So is there any significance to them leaving the index? Seeing as though that's what actually is happening.

 

[Heisenberg007]

What the significance if they leavethe stock exchange vs the stock index. I don't understand why this is indicative of anything.

I assume it would mean that Activision plans on being bought, meaning the deal goes through, but according to your post, that would only be a valid conclusion if they were to leave the Stock Exchange, not the index?

So is there any significance to them leaving the index? Seeing as though that's what actually is happening.

If they leave the Stock exchange (which will only happen after the acquisition is completed), that means ABK is no longer a publicly listed company. Which makes sense because, at that point, there won't be an ABK. It'll be acquired and merged with Microsoft.

The index is just that ... an index of fund.

And indexes are juggled all the time based on their performance and other criteria companies must meet to stay in a fund. Besides, NASDAQ also recently announced a reshuffling of this very 100 Index fund.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/nas...ecause-a-few-tech-stocks-are-now-too-big.html

Everybody, including "journalists", is ignoring all the objective facts and just being blindsided by all the acquisition hype.

 

[Negotiator101]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

Sounds a feasible solution, obviously Pachter isn't particularly respected around here but he's certainly well educated and knowledgeable about this.

 

[PaintTinJr]

By the way, this is what our modern-day Oracle, Michael Pachter is saying:

"We believe Microsoft can carve out Game Pass UK PLC as a separate operating subsidiary with an independent board charged with keeping Activision content off the Game Pass platform pending the conclusion of Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision. This would likely satisfy the CMA, and the deal should close by next Tuesday."

He is clearly getting his talking points direct from the Microsoft, so even reading their own SEC filing why would anyone think that would appease the CMA's Cloud gaming SLC?

Any solution for the CMA, as minimum will have to be structural and a true competitor, and apply to all 4 of the main regions of the SEC filing. This will just be a UK only solution that does nothing, different and only has an independence for show.

As much as I said the deal is closing, if Microsoft are misreading the room that badly with such idiotic thoughts, then the CMA are blocking this, even if the appeal by the FTC doesn't succeed from US judges failing to follow the text of their own laws.

 

[Yoboman]

This party will never die

 

[Gudji]

Close without the CMA permition please.

 

[Alex Scott]

He is clearly getting his talking points direct from the Microsoft, so even reading their own SEC filing why would anyone think that would appease the CMA's Cloud gaming SLC?

Any solution for the CMA, as minimum will have to be structural and a competitor a true competitor, and apply to all 4 of the main regions of the SEC filing. This will just be a UK only solution that does nothing, different and only has an independence for show.

As much as I said the deal is closing, if Microsoft are misreading the room that badly with such idiotic thoughts, then the CMA are blocking this, even if the appeal by the FTC doesn't succeed from US judges failing to follow the text of their own laws.

Doesn't he work a hedge fund that bought ABK shares? So he will say whatever to make sure it looks like it is going to go through.

 

[Snake29]

As someone who plays basically no activision/blizzard games I have no horse in this race. So funny seeing the amount of corporate love some have, borderline insanity

CoD is their only public high value game. Nothing else ABK has is interesting atm. Even Bethesda has way more interesting high value IP's. MS want all these numbers, they don't care about newly created games...because they won't change ABK.

 

[GHG]

Close without the CMA permition please.

 

[Gudji]

Just wasking for 500 more pages.

 

[Alex Scott]

Close without the CMA permition please.

Yup.
I want CMA to stand their ground.
And MS to close before th 18th just to see how it will end up,

 

[PaintTinJr]

Yup.
I want CMA to stand their ground.
And MS to close before th 18th just to see how it will end up,

The irony of that would be that as an illegal merger Microsoft would have invalidated the contract PlayStation has to market CoD and would then be liable for unknown damages to PlayStation for breach of contract too I would imagine.

 

[MasterCornholio]

That's not what it means though. It's getting removed from an index, not the stock exchange.

The deal may very well close on Monday, but this particular development has nothing to do with it.

As of this moment the CMA is still blocking it right?

Just wondering if I missed anything.

 

[Heisenberg007]

As of this moment the CMA is still blocking it right?

Just wondering if I missed anything.

It is blocking, yes.

 

[MasterCornholio]

It is blocking, yes.

Doesn't sound like Microsoft can get the CMA to approve this before Monday. Unless I'm missing something that is.

 

[Astray]

Doesn't sound like Microsoft can get the CMA to approve this before Monday. Unless I'm missing something that is.

We're all missing a lot of things in this deal because we are not privy to a lot of private conversations and redacted filings between the various players and regulators.

Even the ResetEra people probably didn't anticipate the CAT appeal stay happening.

 

[Lucifers Beard]

Scrolling YouTube and Cunt Eastwood is his usual moronic self shouting about console wars and how MS have 'won'. Proper wanker.

I'm really interested to see how this deal impacts the industry in the next few years. Even more interested to see the impact in 2034 once Microsoft are no longer contractually required to put CoD on PlayStation. I reckon they'll still release the game there, easy money for them.

 

[PaintTinJr]

We're all missing a lot of things in this deal because we are not privy to a lot of private conversations and redacted filings between the various players and regulators.

Even the ResetEra people probably didn't anticipate the CAT appeal stay happening.

Is that true though? The CMA process is well documented and has had public consultation throughout. Nothing changes from their final report, and they aren't changing market definitions, because they would have defended their substance in court, had Microsoft not backed down on legal proceedings.

Most of the stuff behind close doors we don't need to hear because it is idiot ramblings from Microsoft not appeasing the SLC in the CMA report.

 

[Ginzeen]

Is that true though? The CMA process is well documented and has had public consultation throughout. Nothing changes from their final report, and they aren't changing market definitions, because they would have defended their substance in court, had Microsoft not backed down on legal proceedings.

Most of the stuff behind close doors we don't need to hear because it is idiot ramblings from Microsoft not appeasing the SLC in the CMA report.

CAT getting paused is extremely unusual. That's why im confident this deal is getting done, without that i wouldn't be confident at all. As soon as the FTC lost in court that announcement came out. Thats not a coincidence. I think MS and CMA worked something out, if they hadn't, the CAT wouldn't be paused. Maybe they can close in the meantime while the CMA get another look at the remedy?

 

[In Cold Blood]

But 69 of them don't exist I'd say it's well worth it, you disliking Blizzard might make it seem like it's not but the established fan-bases they have alone is a win for MS. To me this seems like a safe bet because all these studio has passed the ultimate tests which is a consistent cash flow, keeping huge player bases, & there's something here for everyone when acquiring ABK.

While I think there is little in it for me, and I would prefer to have 600 Ninja Theorys, or 250 Insomniacs for the same money, for MS it makes way more sense.
They hit all three areas that they need. More top line Console IPs like COD, Crash etc.
They get to have a big stake in mobile with King.
The fastest growing area for Gamepass on PC, so Blizzard really pushes that further.

But, imagine if you had 250 Insomniacs releasing console games.
Imagine a AAA exclusive every week like Spiderman, Sunset Overdrive, Ratchet etc.
It would end the console war.

 

[Astray]

Most of the stuff behind close doors we don't need to hear because it is idiot ramblings from Microsoft not appeasing the SLC in the CMA report.

I don't know man, those ramblings seem to have created an opening with the CMA that just wasn't there before.

I think in general that if one is against the deal happening, then it's time to start thinking of the CMA in pessimistic tones rather than optimistic.

 

[Alex Scott]

Is that true though? The CMA process is well documented and has had public consultation throughout. Nothing changes from their final report, and they aren't changing market definitions, because they would have defended their substance in court, had Microsoft not backed down on legal proceedings.

Most of the stuff behind close doors we don't need to hear because it is idiot ramblings from Microsoft not appeasing the SLC in the CMA report.

Yesterday CMA said they still stand behind their decision and are still blocking it. So what could MS offer that would appease the CMA concern in the final report in just three days? Any guess or anyone?

 

[Ar¢tos]

Yesterday CMA said they still stand behind their decision and are still blocking it. So what could MS offer that would appease the CMA concern in the final report in just three days? Any guess or anyone?

 

[freefornow]

Riky and other UK Xbox gamers:

Region switching? VPN? Turkey subscription to GP works out well with currency conversion.

 

[PaintTinJr]

CAT getting paused is extremely unusual. That's why im confident this deal is getting done, without that i wouldn't be confident at all. As soon as the FTC lost in court that announcement came out. Thats not a coincidence. I think MS and CMA worked something out, if they hadn't, the CAT wouldn't be paused. Maybe they can close in the meantime while the CMA get another look at the remedy?

No, the CMA are a public body that have to be transparent. The timing of the news was just more PR theatrics from a bad faith actor trying to silence the real opposition to the deal - the bulk of gamers and lead by gamers that gamed long before it was mainstream.

There is nothing unusual about the CMA trying to appease everyone while protecting competition (for consumers/business) and by giving Microsoft another attempt they are saving tax payers in the UK money and saving our legal system any unnecessary duress.

This deal currently only goes through legally on the 18th if Microsoft divest Activision like the CMA wanted. It is take it or leave it time - without some amazing solution that doesn't allow Microsoft to unfairly use Activision content internationally to monopolise the cloud game market before it starts.

 

[Jumeira]

Yesterday CMA said they still stand behind their decision and are still blocking it. So what could MS offer that would appease the CMA concern in the final report in just three days? Any guess or anyone?

Platitudes. They've got to save face and are saying that due to the rest of the battles brewing beyond ABK merger.

MS are closing by Monday and have got the ok from CMA to remove their worldwide block. CMA will release a statement saying something to that effect that UK is still under review. CMA have retreated from their position multiple times that has shocked M&A lawyers in UK, they know they have no argument and they have no one backing their concerns.

Deal is done.

 

[Forsythia]

This shit just keeps going. Madness!

 

[Jumeira]

No, the CMA are a public body that have to be transparent. The timing of the news was just more PR theatrics from a bad faith actor trying to silence the real opposition to the deal - the bulk of gamers and lead by gamers that gamed long before it was mainstream.

There is nothing unusual about the CMA trying to appease everyone while protecting competition (for consumers/business) and by giving Microsoft another attempt they are saving tax payers in the UK money and saving our legal system any unnecessary duress.

This deal currently only goes through legally on the 18th if Microsoft divest Activision like the CMA wanted. It is take it or leave it time - without some amazing solution that doesn't allow Microsoft to unfairly use Activision content internationally to monopolise the cloud game market before it starts.

Read todays Financial Times. They said complete opposite of this, ex-CMA lawyer saying they're saving face and this is an unprecedented move by CMA. They're in a bad spot.

Here an excerpt thanks to Idas:

After the initial shock of Tuesday's news that Microsoft and the UK's antitrust watchdog are back at the negotiating table on the software giant's $75bn takeover of Activision Blizzard, everyone is trying to figure out what sort of deal they can reach.

Crucial will be an off-ramp for the UK's Competition and Markets Authority to save face after it blocked the mega-deal in April, drawing the ire of Activision chief executive Bobby Kotick, who said the initial CMA decision meant the UK was "closed for business".

There are no easy answers for what comes next as the clock ticks down on Microsoft's attempt to push further into the gaming market.

The CMA's new posture — which came just hours after a judge in California rejected the US Federal Trade Commission's request to block the deal — was seen by some critics as a way to save face. "Competition lawyers were just astounded," said one lawyer. "The fact that it followed so fast on the heels of the US [ruling] . . . feels like the CMA had the courage of its convictions until yesterday."

UK regulators may now be incentivised to take what they can get given that Brussels cleared the deal in May.

Allies of UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and Hunt insisted that no pressure was applied on the CMA to shift its stance on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.

"The CMA needs to tread a very careful line here between seeming reasonable and seeming weak," said Tom Smith, a former CMA lawyer now at Geradin Partners.