Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
supernova8 said:
Did you even read what ToadMan said lol
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Reading and comprehension don't always come as a pair 🤷‍♂️🤣

GHG said:
While all of this is going on it doesn't meet the criteria because of the disconnected nature of trade. As it stands Activision makes up 0.42% of the index.

For arguments sake let's say there are 1 billion dollars of inflows into the Nasdaq composite (via QQQ for example), that's roughly 4.2 million dollars that are supposed to be distributed towards ATVI. Understandably, any fund manager would be hesitant to execute on that at the moment and as evidenced by how the beta has tracked since the announcement of the deal they are not adhering to this. That will only get worse as we get closer to any crunch time.

Could they go ahead and attempt to close the deal on Monday regardless? Yes, however there are other reasons for ATVI to be removed from the index for now while this is all still in process.
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That was my feeling too - regardless of what is about to happen with ATVI, it's clearly not a free moving stock at the moment and not reflective of the overall Nasdaq performance this last 6 months.

It doesn't make much sense to keep ATVI in when its capped on price and not trending with everything else.
 
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PaintTinJr said:
No, the CMA are a public body that have to be transparent. The timing of the news was just more PR theatrics from a bad faith actor trying to silence the real opposition to the deal - the bulk of gamers and lead by gamers that gamed long before it was mainstream.

There is nothing unusual about the CMA trying to appease everyone while protecting competition (for consumers/business) and by giving Microsoft another attempt they are saving tax payers in the UK money and saving our legal system any unnecessary duress.

This deal currently only goes through legally on the 18th if Microsoft divest Activision like the CMA wanted. It is take it or leave it time - without some amazing solution that doesn't allow Microsoft to unfairly use Activision content internationally to monopolise the cloud game market before it starts.
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disagree. The time for negations and discussions were over. No need to pause the CAT, if they wanted to kill the deal no matter what. Try to kill the deal at the CAT. Theirs no world where MS divest Activision. MS have already said this numerous times. Its not practical. And they told that to the CMA months ago. So if that was the only way forward, the CAT would still be on.
 
I woke up to a lot of weapons grade hopium today. They say it's always pride before the fall.

OxS0FHG.gif
 
Mythoclast said:
So how many appeals can either side do in the American legal system? Can both sides just appeal every decision infinitely?
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No it's not infinite.

Basically there're 2 levels of federal appeal as I understand it. The FTC is appealing to the circuit court of appeals - that's the first level. Above that is the supreme court and that would be the final appeal.

However, the supreme court doesn't usually accept trial cases as such, they get involved in cases where there is a fundamental constitutional or overriding legal challenge to governmental systems.

So for the FTC this appeal is basically it - if they lose their federal court forays are over until they complete the August trial (or withdraw altogether - this is more likely).

If the FTC won this appeal, MS would have to try and go to the Supreme court to get it overturned - and for that they'd have to argue the FTC is an unconstitutional body. It means that trial is no longer about ATVI, MS would have to fight about the very way decisions are made.

I don't for a moment think it goes that far though. The FTC appeal is almost certainly going to fail (if it gets that far) - what the FTC can do is push the time past the 18th forcing MS-ATVI to renegotiate, or not.
 
So what are we expecting? Microsoft trying to force their hand and close even with FTC appealing and CMA stating their block won't be changed in a matter of days and remedies cannot be submitted at this stage?
Or they're going to extend the deal for a small window at the same conditions just to close these issues?
Or Bobby will laugh to the bank with 3b because there is no plan to extend the deal?
 
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Closing over the CMA would be devastating for Microsoft's long term ambitions. They would get shorted (on the stock exchange) into the ether.

I know that they're desperate. Their internal communications point to that level of turmoil and desperation. But closing over the CMA is a long term self inflicted wound.
 
Pelta88 said:
You must not understand the fine structure or the yearly costs involved with such a fine. Or the fact that sometime in the not too distant future Microsoft might want to purchase some other entity...

But then again, we've moved from "MS will just close over the uk once the FTC injunction is rejected." To this.
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Lol. What I understand is that MS fully explored closing over the UK and it was largely reported. Why would they look into that, and plan on pulling ABK from the NasDaq on Monday without CMA approval if that wasn't an option? They can eat 3Billion in fines at least as they will lose that if the deal doesn't close anyways.
 
Elios83 said:
So what are we expecting? Microsoft trying to force their hand and close even with FTC appealing and CMA stating their block won't be changed in a matter of days and remedies cannot be submitted at this stage?
Or they're going to extend the deal for a small window at the same conditions just to close these issues?
Or Bobby will laugh to the bank with 3b because there is no plan to extend the deal?
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FTC appeal will be rejected, and I'm assuming CMA and MS have come to an agreement whereby they can close everywhere but UK. It'll all be done soon, dont worry child.
 
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Ginzeen said:
disagree. The time for negations and discussions were over. No need to pause the CAT, if they wanted to kill the deal no matter what. Try to kill the deal at the CAT. Theirs no world where MS divest Activision. MS have already said this numerous times. Its not practical. And they told that to the CMA months ago. So if that was the only way forward, the CAT would still be on.
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You keep saying that, but this is how it has played out so far:
  • CMA showed concerns.
  • Microsoft proposed behavioral remedies.
  • CMA rejected behavioral remedies and blocked the acquisition and asked Microsoft to divest Activision.
  • Microsoft rejected the idea of divestment. That was months ago.
  • Now Microsoft said that we will restructure the deal and are open to a small divestment.
  • CMA said "okay, if you do that, we can look at it again and let you know what we think."
  • Microsoft said, "while we are working on this restructured deal, can we pause the CAT appeal?"
  • CMA said, "Sure. We will wait for your new proposal then. But as of now, our decision to block is still intact."
This is Microsoft backing from their original stance (that we won't divest), not necessarily the CMA.

Now it is yet to be seen what Microsoft decides to divest. If it is less than Activision, the CMA may or may not accept it.
 
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I still believe that the cma has dropped its pants and will accept the ms's conditions by the 18th, immediately after the ftc's appeal is rejected. continuing this farce or showing up to the cat like the ftc did would be embarrassing. if these regulators have any restraint theys should disappear completely, they are just a waste of time and money
 
Heisenberg007 said:
If they leave the Stock exchange (which will only happen after the acquisition is completed), that means ABK is no longer a publicly listed company. Which makes sense because, at that point, there won't be an ABK. It'll be acquired and merged with Microsoft.

The index is just that ... an index of fund.

And indexes are juggled all the time based on their performance and other criteria companies must meet to stay in a fund. Besides, NASDAQ also recently announced a reshuffling of this very 100 Index fund.

Xz5kBNq.jpg

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/nas...ecause-a-few-tech-stocks-are-now-too-big.html

Everybody, including "journalists", is ignoring all the objective facts and just being blindsided by all the acquisition hype.
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Out of interest, why would ABK be replaced on the index for reasons other than the acquisition? That's a genuine question, I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of market listings.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
You keep saying that, but this is how it has played out so far:
  • CMA showed concerns.
  • Microsoft proposed behavioral remedies.
  • CMA rejected behavioral remedies and blocked the acquisition and asked Microsoft to divest Activision.
  • Microsoft rejected the idea of divestment. That was months ago.
  • Now Microsoft said that we will restructure the deal and are open to a small divestment.
  • CMA said "okay, if you do that, we can look at it again and let you know what we think."
  • Microsoft said, "while we are working on this restructured deal, can we pause the CAT appeal?"
  • CMA said, "Sure. We will wait for your new proposal then. But as of now, our decision to block is still intact."
This is Microsoft backing from their original stance (that we won't divest), not necessarily the CMA.

Now it is yet to be seen what Microsoft decides to divest. If it is less than Activision, the CMA may or may not accept it.
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Lol, CMA went to CAT to pause and were slammed for for being "indefensibly late" and we're told to get lost, coming across as being ridiculous.

MS started negotiations but it's in CMA interest to pause as the CAT response spells out , they are not prepared for a fast tracked trial and MS would've used that as leverage to get some sort of agreement. Externally they're saying the original order stands until it doesn't (most likely tomorrow), it's just mood music.

MS didn't initiate the pause, CAT tried on their own and failed an needed MS to request it . CMA are obviously shook by EU and now US allowing the deal to happen and are trying to put on a show of strength to save face. They botched their report and MS are placating them for the UK only under the condition they can close elsewhere. Lulu tweet and Brad's tweet from yesterday implies nothing stops this train.
 
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Can't believe how close we are to a full nuclear option with the UK regulator (and pretty much the entire UK).

This shit is more gripping than any recent movie, can't wait for the Netflix documentary about it in a few years.
 
Jumeira said:
Lol, CMA went to CAT to pause and were slammed for for being "indefensibly late" and we're told to get lost, coming across as being ridiculous.

MS started negotiations but it's in CMA interest to pause as the CAT response spells out , they are not prepared for a fast tracked trial and MS would've used that as leverage to get some sort of agreement. Externally they're saying the original order stands until it doesn't (most likely tomorrow), it's just mood music.

MS didn't initiate the pause, CAT tried on their own and failed an needed MS to request it .
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Things that never happened.

CMA did ask to reschedule the appeal because their main lawyer (who worked on this acquisition) isn't available and busy with other cases. CAT rejected their request.

But CMA never went to CAT for a pause or was slammed.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Things that never happened.

CMA did ask to reschedule the appeal because their main lawyer (who worked on this acquisition) isn't available and busy with other cases. CAT rejected their request.

But CMA never went to CAT for a pause or was slammed.
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If anything, the former CMA head thinks this may even be an attempt by the CMA to get the time they wanted. Their grounds would be that they were still blocking the deal as is, but that a new deal would change things so that they were "willing" to look at it. Which, conveniently, would give them the months they wanted.
 
I don't get this, how will MS close this deal when (and I realise we are not privy to what is going on in the background) the CMA still hasn't approved the deal.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Things that never happened.

CMA did ask to reschedule the appeal because their main lawyer (who worked on this acquisition) isn't available and busy with other cases. CAT rejected their request.

But CMA never went to CAT for a pause or was slammed.
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CAT wouldn't be using incendiary language like I mentioned. They wrote a 15 page denial telling them they had many esteemed King Counsel Barristers available and that they were being needlessly difficult and could easily meet for the deadline for a ruling THEY WROTE. The rest of the world isn't beholden to their timeline. They had since the final decision (May) to prepare which, if they exercised some competence would've enacted straight away given MS is appeal everywhere. It was a complete destruction of the CMA. Every reason CMA used was broken down and thrown back at them. All 3 Judgea denied them and told them to fuck off.

2 hrs after the FTC verdict they then get MS to stop proceedings, MS would only have done that if it benefits them. CMA are about to allow things to go through WW apart from UK (so they can claim some small victory).
 
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Varteras said:
If anything, the former CMA head thinks this may even be an attempt by the CMA to get the time they wanted. Their grounds would be that they were still blocking the deal as is, but that a new deal would change things so that they were "willing" to look at it. Which, conveniently, would give them the months they wanted.
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True. I mentioned it in one of the 3 scenarios earlier.

Conveniently, "3 months" from now, looking at a restructured deal will put the timeline to October -- exactly when the CMA wanted the appeal to be heard.
 
Schmick said:
I don't get this, how will MS close this deal when (and I realise we are not privy to what is going on in the background) the CMA still hasn't approved the deal.
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Unless the CMA has given them a backdoor approval (which it legally can't just yet), Microsoft cannot legally close the acquisition.

It is possible that the CMA and MS have come to a conclusion, and the CMA is only saving face now. In that case, Microsoft will "propose a new deal" which the CMA will accept within the next 2-3 days. Then the CMA can lift the block and allow the acquisition to close.

Until that happens, there is no legal way for Microsoft to close the acquisition before the July 18 deadline.
 
Jumeira said:
CAT wouldn't be using incendiary language like I mentioned. They wrote a 15 page denial telling them they had many esteemed King Counsel Barristers available and that they were being needlessly difficult and could easily meet for the deadline for a ruling THEY WROTE. The rest of the world isn't beholden to their timeline. They had since the final decision (May) to prepare which, if they exercised some competence would've enacted straight away given MS is appeal everywhere. It was a complete destruction of the CMA. Every reason CMA used was broken down and thrown back at them. All 3 Judgea denied them and told them to fuck off.

2 hrs after the FTC verdict they then get MS to stop proceedings, MS would only have done that if it benefits them. CMA are about to allow things to go through WW apart from UK (so they can claim some small victory).
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Imagine ending a 6 year hiatus just to come back squawking like an inpatient at a mental facility.
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
How?

The CMA requires a new evaluation of the divestment. That's not going to happen that quickly
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With their Interim Order, they can agree to allow you to close with written permission from the CMA. You cannot with a Final Order which hasn't gone into effect yet.

They could have given permission to close everywhere but the UK.

The FTC heard this and filed the Preliminary Injunction because they knew Microsoft was about to close in the US.

Why else would the FTC file the injunction if the CMA already blocked them from closing in all markets? They had no reason to otherwise.
 
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Ogbert said:
Thanks.

But from the reasons listed, 'sometimes because they merge with or are acquired by another company' seems like more than a coincidence?
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In case of acquisitions, companies are delisted/removed (1) after the acquisition is complete and (2) because they are removed from the Stock exchange.

So when a company is not listed on the Stock exchange, it cannot be a part of a stock fund.

In this case, ABK is still listed on the Stock exchange. They just won't be a part of this particular Index Fund anymore. They are/will still be a part of other Index Funds, e.g., S&P 500. If ABK was being removed because of this acquisition, they'd also be removed from all other funds (which is what happens in case of acquisitions).
 
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RGB'D said:
Lol. What I understand is that MS fully explored closing over the UK and it was largely reported. Why would they look into that, and plan on pulling ABK from the NasDaq on Monday without CMA approval if that wasn't an option? They can eat 3Billion in fines at least as they will lose that if the deal doesn't close anyways.
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All of your info is wrong...

1. If Microsoft could close over the UK without severe repercussions, they would.

2. Microsoft doesn't control what is on the Nasdaq. No disrespect intended, because while I could explain what is going on with the stock on the NASDAQ, your belief in point 1, leads me to believe the explanation would be futile.
 
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Heisenberg007 said:
In case of acquisitions, companies are delisted/removed (1) after the acquisition is complete and (2) because they are removed from the Stock exchange.

So when a company is not listed on the Stock exchange, it cannot be a part of a stock fund.

In this case, ABK is still listed on the Stock exchange. They just won't be a part of this particular Index Fund anymore. They are/will still be a part of other Index Funds, e.g., S&P 500. If ABK was being removed because of this acquisition, they'd also be removed from all other funds (which is what happens in case of acquisitions).
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I appreciate that.

It was more whether they are sometimes removed from the index, as opposed to the underlying market, as a preparatory step before a merger.

Just seems like peculiar timing. But I understand it might just be scheduled maintenance on the index.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
It is possible that the CMA and MS have come to a conclusion, and the CMA is only saving face now. In that case, Microsoft will "propose a new deal" which the CMA will accept within the next 2-3 days. Then the CMA can lift the block and allow the acquisition to close.
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That's where I was with this after the initial response to the FTC ruling. But the communications since, I dont think support that theory as much. I'm also not convinced in the need for the CMA to be saving face as much as just the wish to have fair optics i.e revisit with MS whilst also potentially posturing for time. But hey, one thing the past 48hrs has shown me, anything is possible.... and what do I know? Nothing!
 
Snake29 said:
People can hate this guy, but he is spot on:

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And that is the point what MS wants to enforce with consolidation: the not buying model(renting)

Now they have a small base that are satisfied with only renting. But what they want is to make that mandatory for consumers, pubs and studios. Because who will not be on gamepass will have a hard time to sell their games.

And that is the problem in a market consumers only play what is on a subscription service makes a lot of studios to bankrupt and stop innovation, new studios and new games.

What they want is to enforce a monopoly and without hi budget sp only games(sony ips).
 
So options currently are
A: They will close as soon as possible to prevent FTC from chance to obtain PI or another TRO, they will make a deal with CMA and it will pass with flying colors
B: They will close as soon as possible to prevent FTC from chance to obtain PI or another TRO, despite the fact that they have no deal with CMA. There will be probably fines but I doubt they will be higher than potential breakup fee. And after that they will make a deal with CMA
C: They will close as soon as possible to prevent FTC from chance to obtain PI or another TRO, with some kind of tomfuckery to close around CMA (pulling ABK from UK and distributing their games with third-party on that market?)
D: They will try to negotiate extension of merger agreement to cover negotiations with CMA but they are also risking PI from judge with FTC
E: They will walk away with 3 billion fine to ABK
F: FTC will manage to get another TRO and whole deal is dead

Since NASDAQ is delisting ABK on Monday I think Microsoft will close during weekend. Question is what about CMA. I don't think that FTC will have another TRO by friday. There is just too little time left.
Exciting....
 
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Spitballing here but I believe the nuclear option for MS is if they are prepared to divest the A in ABK (i.e. some of the studios) but keep the IPs that they licence out to A. Not sure if this would happen though.

Danwan224 said:
Wasn't that because of MS being late with the documents they needed
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Yes, they left it to the last minute to file an appeal and rushed the courts to try and get it done before the 18th of July and this guy has the cheek to suggest that "The rest of the world isn't beholden to their (the CMAs) timeline" .
 
Danwan224 said:
Wasn't that because of MS being late with the documents they needed
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Nope. It happened during FTC hearings. CMA wanted to defer hearing to august (if I remember correctly) but Judge told them that they are just trying to stall everything and denied their request.
 
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Heisenberg007 said:
You keep saying that, but this is how it has played out so far:
  • CMA showed concerns.
  • Microsoft proposed behavioral remedies.
  • CMA rejected behavioral remedies and blocked the acquisition and asked Microsoft to divest Activision.
  • Microsoft rejected the idea of divestment. That was months ago.
  • Now Microsoft said that we will restructure the deal and are open to a small divestment.
  • CMA said "okay, if you do that, we can look at it again and let you know what we think."
  • Microsoft said, "while we are working on this restructured deal, can we pause the CAT appeal?"
  • CMA said, "Sure. We will wait for your new proposal then. But as of now, our decision to block is still intact."
This is Microsoft backing from their original stance (that we won't divest), not necessarily the CMA.

Now it is yet to be seen what Microsoft decides to divest. If it is less than Activision, the CMA may or may not accept it.
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Their is no world where MS sells COD. The deal won't happen. CMA would not have paused the CAT if that is what they wanted, because MS said their not selling COD. Not practical.
 
Godot25 said:
Nope. It happened during FTC hearings. CMA wanted to defer hearing to august (if I remember correctly) but Judge told them that they are just trying to stall everything and denied their request.
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He's referring to why they asked for the delay and didn't have enough time to prepare for MS' stated grounds of appeal.
 
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Jumeira said:
Things have progressed since then.

Deal is done, Sony going to start contributing towards Xbox profits for future game funding from Monday.
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Or you could look at it through the lens of Phil Spencer who stated in court that Sony were taking 30% of a cut from their games and weaponising it to make exclusive deals with rivals. Forgetting to mention the 70% that they make and just piss away.
 
Godot25 said:
So options currently are

B: They will close as soon as possible to prevent FTC from chance to obtain PI or another TRO, despite the fact that they have no deal with CMA. There will be probably fines but I doubt they will be higher than potential breakup fee. And after
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Maybe I don't fully understand the US judicial system. But isn't the legal process... The legal process? Isn't filing an appeal a legal procedure that isn't subject to speed as implied above. Since Microsoft engaged in said legal process, wouldn't they be fully aware of what comes next?

I understand they're up against a deadline but it is a deadline that Microsoft signed up to. What you're suggesting is actually illegal, here in the UK.
 
Jumeira said:
Read todays Financial Times. They said complete opposite of this, ex-CMA lawyer saying they're saving face and this is an unprecedented move by CMA. They're in a bad spot.

Here an excerpt thanks to Idas:
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What type of shame article is that?

That's from the same rag that ran PR adverts with false "bringing ATVI games to more gamers" for Microsoft for weeks making millions in advert revenue in the process, and the entire article quote says nothing of what you've claimed, it is just more Microsoft PR from the article writer projecting a false narrative, and even if it wasn't, it is from a "ex-" staff member - probably working in the city on M&A's for self gain, now and that has no more knowledge of the merger's panel position that anyone else reading their final report.

Comeback when the CMA themselves are giving the same narrative.
 
Pelta88 said:
Maybe I don't fully understand the US judicial system. But isn't the legal process... The legal process? Isn't filing an appeal a legal procedure that isn't subject to speed as implied above. Since Microsoft engaged in said legal process, wouldn't they be fully aware of what comes next?

I understand they're up against a deadline but it is a deadline that Microsoft signed up to. What you're suggesting is actually illegal, here in the UK.
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But it's also a deadline FTC "signed up to." Nobody told them to request a PI one month before merger agreement will ran out. They could have requested PI in December and they would have enough time for hearing and potential appeal. They brought it on themselves.
...from what I understand....If appeal judge won't grant any decision and TRO will expire (currently 14th July), Microsoft can close in US and FTC can go f*** themselves. They can keep this deal in their administrative court but that's everything they can legally do.
 
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PaintTinJr said:
What type of shame article is that?

That's from the same rag that ran PR adverts with false "bringing ATVI games to more gamers" for Microsoft for weeks making millions in advert revenue in the process, and the entire article quote says nothing of what you've claimed, it is just more Microsoft PR from the article writer projecting a false narrative, and even if it wasn't, it is from a "ex-" staff member - probably working in the city on M&A's for self gain, now and that has no more knowledge of the merger's panel position that anyone else reading their final report.

Comeback when the CMA themselves are giving the same narrative.
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CMA didn't have to pause the CAT. That move is highly unusual, no matter how you slice it. The time for talking was over. Deal was blocked.
 
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