Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Elios83 said:
It's a CAT thing to reschedule the appeal if there will be one in the future.
CMA has already spoken, they won't have an other verdict ready before July 18th.
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and I don't believe it's just for that. I don't know the law, I don't know if it's possible, but having that damn discussion the day ms wanted it seems absurd to me, it makes me think they've already won.

Kilau said:
I don't think the previous ruling from the CMA just goes away if they go back to negotiations. Maybe there is precedent here to tell us? They might get a waiver to close while negotiating if that's a possibility.
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I don't know either, but the timing seems absurdly positive for the deal.
 
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Banjo64 said:
Here's the idea:


YU2vJyw.jpg
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Dang bro, how is this real? The CMA are basically telling MS to drop Call of Duty from the deal and you're good to go. So if Phil said this deal is mainly about "KING" of ABK, then why is dropping COD a problem?
 
zapper said:
cod can be so decisive as to prevent other acquisitions? so far it seems to me that regulators / judges / public opinion have bought all the alleged benefits offered by ms with this deal, I don't see how they can be losers in a couple of months or years even with t2 or ea.
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No, COD makes Xbox/MS strong as it is now.
Add GTA, Assassin Creed or battlefield and you are looking for a monopoly.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Dang bro, how is this real? The CMA are basically telling MS to drop Call of Duty from the deal and you're good to go. So if Phil said this deal is mainly about "KING" of ABK, then why is dropping COD a problem?
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Because COD mobile makes insane money.

Plus who pays 67b for a lesser company.

It would have been better for them if they bought take 2, than doing that.
 
feynoob said:
Keep in mind that both company will see huge revenue if they merge together.
Part of the reason is the increase of GP and Xbox consoles.


If Sony loses COD, they are in series problems.
COD brings them alot of money. From PS+ subs, game sales and mtx. Losing that means huge hit on their revenue.
Keep in mind that PS also helps other Sony division.


Consoles sales doesn't mean much, if you get a hit on your software sales.
Sony needs to protect that software sales.
If MS owns activision, nothing stops them from putting those 3rd party games day1 on gamepass.


Also COD marketing rights is a big boost for any platform owner.
Xbox 360 benefited this massively from COD. You get in to a position of negotiation power.

Another thing that people are not paying attention to is the revenues that Xbox will get from Activision. Those money will go back to Xbox, which allows them to buy big AAA day1 games for gamepass. That is a massive boost for Xbox. Not only that, they can now afford to make games like cyberpunk 2077 timed exclusive to Xbox with that money.
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I think the people that like GP have signed up for it. It's not as if GP isn't know. Go anywhere on the internet and you'll hear the echos of the marketing line "Gamepass is the best deal in gaming"™ everywhere. I don't think they're going to double or triple their subs from COD.

They'd be smart to become a 3rd party publisher for some games but Phil exposed himself as a cynical little clown during his court time. He just wants to buy and keep the toys for himself.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Dang bro, how is this real? The CMA are basically telling MS to drop Call of Duty from the deal and you're good to go. So if Phil said this deal is mainly about "KING" of ABK, then why is dropping COD a problem?
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I hate to be the one to tell you but... Phil Spencer can at times be economical with the truth. I know it's a shock.
 
DryvBy said:
I think the people that like GP have signed up for it. It's not as if GP isn't know. Go anywhere on the internet and you'll hear the echos of the marketing line "Gamepass is the best deal in gaming"™ everywhere. I don't think they're going to double or triple their subs from COD.

They'd be smart to become a 3rd party publisher for some games but Phil exposed himself as a cynical little clown during his court time. He just wants to buy and keep the toys for himself.
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Phil is a CEO, just like Jim Ryan and Bobby kottick.
People are assuming that these people are their friends.
They have a duty to make business plan that benefits the company, not the consumer. They answer to people like Satya, who are their bosses.

It's a sad time that people think these people are friends to them. I like Todd Howard, but even I know that guy is grade A 🐍 oil man.
The adorations of CEO's is a dangerous game.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Dang bro, how is this real? The CMA are basically telling MS to drop Call of Duty from the deal and you're good to go. So if Phil said this deal is mainly about "KING" of ABK, then why is dropping COD a problem?
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No there is only one remedy that CMA gave in their FInal report, that is prohibition. That is from provisional findings.
 
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So if this goes through, PS owners all get the same content in CoD, correct?

So PS owners all get to wear the free Gamepass and Xbox themed skins too?
 
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People are putting too much faith in the CMA, I fully expect them to just block this shit again

Anyone remember when they dropped the console SLC and all the premature celebrations that followed?
 
woahwoahwoah said:
People are putting too much faith in the CMA, I fully expect them to just block this shit again

Anyone remember when they dropped the console SLC and all the premature celebrations that followed?
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I see no reason why they wouldn't be fair and if ms made legit concessions why it wouldnt pass?
 
woahwoahwoah said:
People are putting too much faith in the CMA, I fully expect them to just block this shit again

Anyone remember when they dropped the console SLC and all the premature celebrations that followed?
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My understanding is that they merely said that they are open to suggestions, but that those would require restarting the entire process of investigation.
They clarified that the block still stands
 
havoc00 said:
I see no reason why they wouldn't be fair and if ms made legit concessions why it wouldnt pass?
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They stablished the concessions they wanted.. MS said NO!... so if they do a about face and change those concessions they will look really stupid... not that hey wouldn't mind.. but lets see

Anyway the new deal will require new avaliation... so they would have to extend this shit anyway or change the contract that stipulated acceptance from the CMA as one if the 4 needed to close
 
havoc00 said:
I see no reason why they wouldn't be fair and if ms made legit concessions why it wouldnt pass?
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I'm pretty sure the CMA and MS have two very different things in mind when they think "legit concessions"

From their previous report, they were asking for MS divest the entirety of Activision and/or Blizzard
 
mckmas8808 said:
Dang bro, how is this real? The CMA are basically telling MS to drop Call of Duty from the deal and you're good to go. So if Phil said this deal is mainly about "KING" of ABK, then why is dropping COD a problem?
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Because it's a ridiculous demand.
Edit: isn't the cma block over cloud gaming? If so then the resolution should involve cloud gaming.
 
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Bernardougf said:
Shit if this deal goes through is better we already go all in ... in a few years green gamepass socks are going to be our only option.. hurray
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Man if Microsoft leave the ability to play on a local PC and buying games on the long term, I don't care they can buy everyone. But if the model will be renting and cloud only I will probably quit.
 
Solidus_T said:
My understanding is that they merely said that they are open to suggestions, but that those would require restarting the entire process of investigation.
They clarified that the block still stands
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you didnt read todays news.

"The statutory period for the CMA either to accept final Undertakings or make a final Order currently ends on 18 July 2023."

"The CMA considers that there is insufficient time remaining in the statutory period for full and proper consideration of Microsoft's submission on the proposed Order. As such, the Inquiry Group considers that there are special reasons to extend by six weeks under section 41A(2) of the Act the period for the discharge of its duty under section 41(2) of the Act. The revised period will therefore end on 29 August 2023. However, the Inquiry Group aims to discharge its duty as soon as possible and in advance of this date."
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If this deal goes through, it will be insane for Gamepass subscribers.

Do we expect MS to dial back the aggressive 3rd party Day 1 deals since they'll have their own games to fill in the gaps?
 
93xfan said:
If this deal goes through, it will be insane for Gamepass subscribers.

Do we expect MS to dial back the aggressive 3rd party Day 1 deals since they'll have their own games to fill in the gaps?
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That's been my worry. I have no interest in ABK games so this would actually make game pass a worse deal for me.
 
mckmas8808 said:
This explains SO MUCH to me now. I see why alot of the xbox media folks on podcasts and youtube "NEED" this deal to happen for MS now. I literally didn't know they feel like it's a life or death situation for the Xbox brand.
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I dont understand why they have a problem with Xbox becoming a publisher. Xbox should have done this years ago and make more profit than they ever made in their history. Look at EA, look at Activision. Xbox with the backing of Microsoft would be a top 3 publisher in gaming. Imagine Halo getting saved by the PlayStation and Nintendo base.
 
feynoob said:
GHG GHG
Is the market still expecting the deal to be closed soon?
I thought the CMA news would make the price go down little bit.
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What's being priced in at the moment is about an 85% chance of the deal going through. No significant change since the FTC failed with their PI.

adamsapple adamsapple only one out of those 2 options gambles that we discussed last week were successful. I'll run the numbers tomorrow so that everyone can get a clear picture of where they finished up (assuming they didn't close them out on tuesday when it was trading above 92 dollars a share - they really should have closed them out there).
 
GHG said:
What's being priced in at the moment is about an 85% chance of the deal going through. No significant change since the FTC failed with their PI.

adamsapple adamsapple only one out of those 2 options gambles that we discussed last week were successful. I'll run the numbers tomorrow so that everyone can get a clear picture of where they finished up (assuming they didn't close them out on tuesday when it was trading above 92 dollars a share - they really should have closed them out there).
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If someone in Congress buys yet another yacht, we'll know they cashed out in time.
 
zedinen said:
Sony is light years ahead

(Three months ended March 31, 2023)

PlayStation $8.11 bn
Microsoft $3.60 bn
ABK $1.76 bn
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Using a single quarter is highly misleading because much of Sony's revenue in this case comes from an opening of supply for PS5 and a lessening supply of Xbox and amounts to hardware revenue.

Services/Software is the more important metric to comapre, as Sony and Microsoft don't make money on hardware.
 
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