Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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This also confirms the FTC were categorically stupid in bringing forward their PI considering they were scheduled to start the court process in August.


I firmly believe FTC single handed made this deals completion more possible. They rushed it, they lost, it caused CMA to officially announce their reconsideration of the new proposal they had been sitting on since June yada yada and now we're here.
 
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Kinda funny seeing people working themselves into a frenzy at this point. Bobby must be really bending Microsoft over for them to not announce an extension.
Seeing that $5b fee, this is how I imagine it went between Bobby and Phil at the negotiating table:

 
Looks like they haven't extended long enough to defend a full length appeal by Sony to the CMA's final report in 6 weeks time, assuming the adjournment is granted by Friday.
Lol. Sony agreed to COD deal. They won't appeal anything anymore. Not to mention that only thing barring completion is CMA and their only worry is about cloud. They don't care about Sony anymore.
 
The FTC now has time to determine what they will do. The deal closing was the whole reason they went with the PI. They can go to administrative court, win there, and then go back to Federal court with that win. Maybe in a different venue.

This extension is definitely not risk free.
 
David Tennant No GIF by Doctor Who

We were so close to the first ever all-out war between a corporation and a country…

But ok I guess the extension works too, looks like this is in the bag sooner or later.
 
They got played again by believing rumors. Hell MS/AB walked into court and kept preaching how the 18th was killer.

Yep, amateur hour.

Lina Khan also alluded to the fact that it was her staffs decision to bring forward the PI, she should be firing everyone while also asking herself how and why she decided to let that happen.

However this deadline extension now affords her some time to put something new together, albeit into already muddied waters.
 
oh. A little clue what is coming in the UK...

"
· Parent will continue to use its best efforts to consummate the Merger, and Parent may seek to pursue an agreement with the Competition and
Markets Authority of the United Kingdom to hold separate the Company or certain assets of the Company or to implement other lawful
alternatives to consummate the Merger, and the Company will continue to cooperate with Parent and use its best efforts to take all actions and do
all things necessary, proper or advisable and consented to by Parent in furtherance of such efforts, in each case, subject to the terms and conditions
of the Merger Agreement
"
 
oh. A little clue what is coming in the UK...

"
· Parent will continue to use its best efforts to consummate the Merger, and Parent may seek to pursue an agreement with the Competition and
Markets Authority of the United Kingdom to hold separate the Company or certain assets of the Company or to implement other lawful
alternatives to consummate the Merger, and the Company will continue to cooperate with Parent and use its best efforts to take all actions and do
all things necessary, proper or advisable and consented to by Parent in furtherance of such efforts, in each case, subject to the terms and conditions
of the Merger Agreement
"


Ah, so this confirms divestiture of service to a third party then ?

Can you link this document you're copying this from please ?
 
No one is doing that deal - you'd make a loss after brokerage fees and taxes.



Prior to that $95 price being set, ATVI had been trading in the $90s range just a few months before the merge was announced with a price base in the $60 range.

Without the $95 handcuffs, ATVI will be above $100 as soon as they announce earnings - August 2.

They may even have been above $100 now just on Nasdaq rally and the press releases surrounding the D4 launch (and resolution of harassment cases against Bobby at the beginning of the year of course).



If that happens the decision has already been made and the deal has been cancelled. That is the sign of insiders buying in before the wider market knows that the $95 MS price cap has been removed.
The 94 price was an just an example for simple math not a tax lesson. See Buffet buying in at 77 or whatever and recently selling on the ftc news as an example.

The merger was announced ages ago so that price doesn't mean much. It's been in the 70s and 80s mostly since.

The smart money is on this being the top, at least in the short term.

In a month or two maybe it goes higher, maybe diablo begins to crater, maybe old cod games sales flaten, and maybe Kotick problems come back. Who knows. That's why you rake the $95. Imo anyway. If I knew for sure I'd have a lot more money
 
oh. A little clue what is coming in the UK...

"
· Parent will continue to use its best efforts to consummate the Merger, and Parent may seek to pursue an agreement with the Competition and
Markets Authority of the United Kingdom to hold separate the Company or certain assets of the Company or to implement other lawful
alternatives to consummate the Merger, and the Company will continue to cooperate with Parent and use its best efforts to take all actions and do
all things necessary, proper or advisable and consented to by Parent in furtherance of such efforts, in each case, subject to the terms and conditions
of the Merger Agreement
"

Interesting, so the idea that it's Xcloud that will be divested doesn't seem to be what they're planning in first place.
It's the Company (aka Activision) or certain assets of the Company that could be kept separate in the UK.

Anyway it's all about the CMA. I wonder if the FTC will drop their case that was supposed to start on August 2nd. Given that Sony has signed a deal their case would be even weaker than it was during the PI.
 
Interesting, so the idea that it's Xcloud that will be divested doesn't seem to be what they're planning in first place.
It's the Company (aka Activision) or certain assets of the Company that could be kept separate in the UK.

Anyway it's all about the CMA. I wonder if the FTC will drop their case that was supposed to start on August 2nd. Given that Sony has signed a deal their case would be even weaker than it was during the PI.
Why? Sony can just say that based on the information at hand they had to protect their brand. The agreement is for CoD, not universal approval of anything Microsoft does.
 
look at the wording.
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is this guy a fucking robot or what? i hope so.
Repugnant isnt it.

The whole irony for me. Is that with all of this saga, the mask slipping, the transparency given to us of the real motivations and continual lying. Unprofessional audacious and arrogant out bursts from the likes of Brad. Supporting spin narrative by all of these shills. Has only served to push me away from the Xbox brand, not draw me in. So well done Xbox!
 
Let them eat crow along with the analysts who were convinced Bobby will take the 3bn and walk away.
There's no eating crow. One is easier than the other. Why do you all think CMA just flipped their stance overnight? This outcome is easier for MS and for CMA than the alternative. What do you think the alternative is? According to you all the CMA blocked the deal, and then just magically changed their mind for no reason.
 
Activision has also agreed to potentially "hold separate the Company or certain assets of the Company or to implement other lawful alternatives to consummate the Merger" with UK regulators. This is a key part, as it may allow the merger to go ahead with restrictions from the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).
So basically if CMA and Microsoft won't work something out they will probably go around CMA by separating UK part of ABK into separate entity?
 
one site reported that the price of the deal has been raised, now ms will have to pay 96 billion for abk. It is true? if so, at least the regulators made ms spend more, at least they achieved something
 
Interesting, so the idea that it's Xcloud that will be divested doesn't seem to be what they're planning in first place.
It's the Company (aka Activision) or certain assets of the Company that could be kept separate in the UK.

I'm not so sure. I think this implies they'll ask the CMA to let them close but "hold ABK separate" - ie ABK remain independent and no integration with MS is allowed.

And then while in that state, they can work out in slow time what to divest and to whom.

A similar situation occurred with Meta-Giphy and Illumina-Grail although they were both enforced after the mergers took place whereas here MS is saying they'll collaborate with the CMA to do it.

Anyway it's all about the CMA. I wonder if the FTC will drop their case that was supposed to start on August 2nd. Given that Sony has signed a deal their case would be even weaker than it was during the PI.

Yeah this is a good question now. The FTC may press on but it's difficult to see what angle they would argue over and even if (when) they won, what would the FTC do with that judgement?

They'd need to go to federal court again if they want to enforce any orders on MS. Their last effort in Federal court didn't go so well…
 
Hold separate is fine. It would mean ATVI is effectively independent still while in that status.

It's MS who wouldn't want that to be the situation for long.

Wouldn't doing so would leave Microsoft in a vulnerable position?
 
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October deadline doesn't mean they wait that long i suppose. Guess they have plenty of time for the CMA now.
" termination fee, payable if Microsoft or Activision walks away from the deal, is now set at $3.5 billion if the deal doesn't close by August 29th, and it jumps to $4.5 billion if September 15th passes without a finalization."

They expect to close prior to August 29th. And it couldn't have been any easier to predict. CMA literally tweeted this out 1 hour after the FTC. All people had to do was just listen to what they're saying.
 
Let them eat crow along with the analysts who were convinced Bobby will take the 3bn and walk away.
If you think the changed financials for the extension was just given out of the kindness of Microsoft's heart I don't know what to tell you. Bobby didn't walk away but he certainly reminded them that the pot needed to be sweetened.
 
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So, what're the odds the CMA still doesn't accept whatever solution Microsoft puts forward? I don't buy for a second that the CMA has NO IDEA what it is Microsoft will suggest, nor do I think Microsoft would have agreed to an adjournment if they didn't have some assurances, but assuming both those counts are wrong then what's the over-under?

I'm fairly sure the CAT judge read some document or another that wasn't read aloud in the room that ultimately convinced him to grant the conditional adjournment, any guesses to what that would be?
 
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