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[James Sawyer Ford]

The question is, is Activision guaranteed to stay at this price tag?

Current stock trading is 92.62 right now. It might as low 82.
Is it guaranteed that they will stay in 80s and not drop down? Because that premium tag will evaporate, if they can't maintain that price range.

Based on options market pricing and comparative valuations to other companies, the answer is yes

 

[Topher]

What if they're the same person?

Those are some damn good alts, I have to say.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Ok but Activision is, they did not exercise the right to walk away from the merger and instead opted to extend it.

So that's that, I guess.

They could not exercise that right because they receive no termination fee if there's pending regulator approval

 

[feynoob]

Based on options market pricing and comparative valuations to other companies, the answer is yes

So you are assuming that nothing happens to them right?

What about kottick leaving the company? Wouldn't that have an affect on the company?
Guy is 60 years old right now.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Huh, where did you get that from?

When made it a requirement that Microsoft explain how they changed their mind, and he mentioned being worried about what he read in the media over the weekend.

A new Phase 1 analysis is already going to be started for the new RMS

I meant a full phase 1 do-over

"Major dissenting voices" don't get representation in the room during a CAT appeal. Only the CMA and the merging parties.

It is a CAT appeal. An argument, the dissent should be on both sides filling the room.

Are you seriously telling me you don't think the judge couldn't see the massive pink elephant in the room the second he got angry with everyone?

The CMA are supposed to be protecting the public interest, not getting giddy around $2.7b company barristers then caving in to carve outs that don't protect the UK business startups wanting to innovate and be the next amazon worldwide sized success story. No premia facia is needed by the 140m PlayStation owners in the world, the deal will be bad long term regardless, and the CMA head of legal providing evidence otherwise is failing the public and should resign if he does that IMO, it is an embarrassing conclusion.

 

[MarkMe2525]

Investors don't all want to sell unless there's a large premium to market

There's not.

Did you make a bet with someone regarding how many times you could repeat this in a 24 hour time period? You need to step it up because you're falling behind yesterday's pace.

 

[X-Wing]

Republicans:

Republican members of Congress urge FTC to drop case against Microsoft-Activision

Sign up for the GI Daily here to get the biggest news straight to your inbox

www.gamesindustry.biz

Democrats:

FTC rewrites rules on Big Tech mergers with aim to ease monopoly-busting

Merger rules currently stacked in favor of monopolists, critics say.

arstechnica.com

Now guess with whom Era is aligning with?

 

[GHG]

The question is, is Activision guaranteed to stay at this price tag?

Current stock trading is 92.62 right now. It might go as low as 82 if it fails.
Is it guaranteed that they will stay in 80s and not drop down? Because that premium tag will evaporate, if they can't maintain that price range.

Did you not just see their earnings report?

Barring an economic disaster or another scandal, this thing isn't going back below 80 any time soon.

It wasn't at the time they made the deal of course, but as it stands today Microsoft have a deal at a discounted price. Average acquisition premiums are typically ~30%, it might even be more for tech specifically.

 

[adamsapple]

They could not exercise that right because they receive no termination fee if there's pending regulator approval

If the deal was that bad they wouldn't sign an extension period and would wait out the regulatory approval and once it came out, walk away.

They did not sign an extension under duress.

I don't think anything anyone says will change your mind at this point, however.

Those are some damn good alts, I have to say.

 

[Aguero9320]

They could not exercise that right because they receive no termination fee if there's pending regulator approval

Not sure what you're trying to say with this particular line of negativity? The extension is done, whether that's because they wanted it or because Microsoft was smart with their contract language and they had no choice doesn't really matter does it?

 

[GHG]

Those are some damn good alts, I have to say.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Did you make a bet with someone regarding how many times you could repeat this in a 24 hour time period? You need to step it up because you're falling behind yesterday's pace.

Certainly less than the amount of times someone makes the moronic take that companies just want cash all the time and it doesn't matter what the offer is as long as it's more than the current share price

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Not sure what you're trying to say with this particular line of negativity? The extension is done, whether that's because they wanted it or because Microsoft was smart with their contract language and they had no choice doesn't really matter does it?

I'm only claiming that

1. The deal today is not good for Activision
2. They would walk away if they could still retain the termination fee

It's a great deal for Microsoft and the stipulations of the agreement

 

[GHG]

Republicans:

Republican members of Congress urge FTC to drop case against Microsoft-Activision

Sign up for the GI Daily here to get the biggest news straight to your inbox

www.gamesindustry.biz

Democrats:

FTC rewrites rules on Big Tech mergers with aim to ease monopoly-busting

Merger rules currently stacked in favor of monopolists, critics say.

arstechnica.com

Now guess with whom Era is aligning with?

They would gladly vote for "bad orange man" if it meant getting this deal over the line.

 

[gametimedecision]

They could not exercise that right because they receive no termination fee if there's pending regulator approval

Honestly I thought what you wrote out yesterday was interesting but you were clearly wrong, and that's not a big deal. It's okay to be wrong sometimes man.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Honestly I thought what you wrote out yesterday was interesting but you were clearly wrong, and that's not a big deal. It's okay to be wrong sometimes man.

What was I wrong about?

 

[feynoob]

So this is the equivalent of one more match please.
I am supposed to stop posting, yet I keep getting engaged with this thread.
Geez, need to put the phone down.

 

[gametimedecision]

What was I wrong about?

If they could have been bought for 120 a share or walked away and been better off then they would have done that, you don't know more than them dude. Now you are changing the argument to "they aren't allowed by contract….that's….that's why they didn't leave!!!" In an attempt to still somehow take a W and not deal with the fact that maybe you just weren't correct in your assessment of the situation.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

If they could have been bought for 120 a share or walked away and been better off them they would have done that, you don't know more than them dude. Now you are changing the argument to "they aren't allowed by contract….that's….that's why they didn't leave!!!" In an attempt to still somehow take a W and not deal with the fact that maybe you just weren't correct in your assessment of the situation.

The terms of the contract became known, Activision couldn't walk away with the term fee.

I was speculating various scenarios based on unknown information at the time, I even stated that extension was the most likely outcome

 

[gametimedecision]

The terms of the contract became known, Activision couldn't walk away with the term fee.

I was speculating various scenarios based on unknown information at the time, I even stated that extension was the most likely outcome

Maybe I missed something in the thread, my bad.

 

[GHG]

I'm only claiming that

1. The deal today is not good for Activision
2. They would walk away if they could still retain the termination fee

It's a great deal for Microsoft and the stipulations of the agreement

I wouldn't say it's a bad deal for Activision as a bsuiness (their C-Suite all want it to go through), and in Bobby's specific case it's a great deal considering everything that's gone on.

It's just not so great a deal for their shareholders anymore.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I wouldn't say it's a bad deal for Activision as a bsuiness (their C-Suite all want it to go through), and in Bobby's specific case it's a great deal considering everything that's gone on.

I just find it hard to believe Bobby wanted to sell out now, 18 months later

Maybe he does, but he doesn't seem like that kind of guy

 

[GHG]

I just find it hard to believe Bobby wanted to sell out now, 18 months later

Maybe he does, but he doesn't seem like that kind of guy

Nah I truly believe he just wants to wash his hands of this now.

If he didn't then the extension negotiations would still be ongoing and he would be making it very difficult for them to come to an agreement, then he would simply walk at some point this or next week.

 

[havoc00]

Everything after this thread will be a let down and seem boring

 

[Vox Machina]

Are you seriously telling me you don't think the judge couldn't see the massive pink elephant in the room the second he got angry with everyone?

The CMA are supposed to be protecting the public interest, not getting giddy around $2.7b company barristers then caving in to carve outs that don't protect the UK business startups wanting to innovate and be the next amazon worldwide sized success story. No premia facia is needed by the 140m PlayStation owners in the world, the deal will be bad long term regardless, and the CMA head of legal providing evidence otherwise is failing the public and should resign if he does that IMO, it is an embarrassing conclusion.

The CMA didn't "cave in". They're being realistic. Their case now has no chance on the basis of both proportionality and comity. If, instead, MSFT can offer structural remedies that satisfy the SLC then they are, by law, required to entertain that. The Judge was just a little frustrated that they just now (in actuality it was a month ago) came to this conclusion, and that he had to walk them through what making the changes necessary to the current processes would look like.

The CMA's deadline for entering evidence is tomorrow. After that point they can write and file the Final Order that allows MSFT/ABK to close, so we could see a closing as early as this week.

 

[GHG]

If you think gamers are toxic don't go on finance forums:

We have it good here.

 

[ChiefDada]

Deal

Any of you guys ever have it happen where you are about to put an emoji on a post and then someone else posts and shifts everything up and you put the emoji on the wrong post?

For instance, above I was about to put the "Praise the Sun" emoji on @Iced Arcade's post and that that jackass GHG posts and shifts everything up and makes me put the emoji on adamsapple 's post.

So then I go back and take off the "Praise the Sun" from adamsapple but then realize that makes me look like a dick so I leave it on.

All of this because GHG is a jackass.

love ya bro

This fucking post! Lol!

 

[havoc00]

If you think gamers are toxic don't go on finance forums:

Lol @ the shots at Bobby

 

[splattered]

I'm starting to wonder if Bobby is actually in line to join Xbox studios now? I mean he seems to be perfectly fine selling Activision... Maybe he's just been promised he can stay there? Would that be good enough for him? Or is he viewing a more interesting challenge of turning around Xbox studios?

 

[havoc00]

I'm starting to wonder if Bobby is actually in line to join Xbox studios now? I mean he seems to be perfectly fine selling Activision... Maybe he's just been promised he can stay there? Would that be good enough for him? Or is he viewing a more interesting challenge of turning around Xbox studios?

He would be an asset to ms tbh

 

[GHG]

Lol @ the shots at Bobby

Seriously unhinged. If they've been invested for a while then he will have made them plenty of money but yet they are lashing out.

There's one greedy fucker moaning about how this delay means he has to put back the extension on his house because the extra $2 will make all the difference to him. It's like... Stop being lazy, take your profits and move on to something else. He could have made that extra 2% in an index fund over the last week ffs.

When there's money involved there's always extreme amounts of toxicity.

 

[Varteras]

Any of you guys ever have it happen where you are about to put an emoji on a post and then someone else posts and shifts everything up and you put the emoji on the wrong post?

For instance, above I was about to put the "Praise the Sun" emoji on @Iced Arcade's post and that that jackass GHG posts and shifts everything up and makes me put the emoji on adamsapple 's post.

So then I go back and take off the "Praise the Sun" from adamsapple but then realize that makes me look like a dick so I leave it on.

All of this because GHG is a jackass.

love ya bro

You get what you pay for. Get on my level. My shit is free, GHG can't fuck up my rep (anymore than I have), and I see ads with big titty girls. Which has absolutely nothing to do with my browser history.

 

[havoc00]

MS already helping Activision games without even the deal final yet, imagine how much more they will do when it's signed ???!!!

 

[Timberwolf25]

You get what you pay for. Get on my level. My shit is free, GHG can't fuck up my rep (anymore than I have), and I see ads with big titty girls. Which has absolutely nothing to do with my browser history.

Sure sure...about them ads not having anything to do with your browser history.

 

[Varteras]

MS already helping Activision games without even the deal final yet, imagine how much more they will do when it's signed ???!!!

Well hopefully they do more than they did for Arkane.

 

[havoc00]

Well hopefully they do more than they did for Arkane.

Redfall what a tragedy. It went from most hated to being forgotten about

 

[GHG]

Sure sure...about them ads not having anything to do with your browser history.

When I have gold I miss them.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Everything after this thread will be a let down and seem boring

There will be other big acquisitions. Don't worry.

 

[Varteras]

Sure sure...about them ads not having anything to do with your browser history.

Sorry. Not now. Busy.

 

[Bernardougf]

I wouldn't say it's a bad deal for Activision as a bsuiness (their C-Suite all want it to go through), and in Bobby's specific case it's a great deal considering everything that's gone on.

It's just not so great a deal for their shareholders anymore.

Especially now that they have three months of a ceiling in their stocks... in case this thing isn't resolved until October

 

[Varteras]

When I have gold I miss them.

Where have I seen those lips before?

Spoiler: OH YEAH!

 

[Bernardougf]

Sorry. Not now. Busy.

now... did you ever think what the fuck he is saying in the end ?

 

[Varteras]

now... did you ever think what the fuck he is saying in the end ?

I'm cumming, Gonzo!

 

[MarkMe2525]

Redfall what a tragedy. It went from most hated to being forgotten about

I uninstalled it last night. I think I played for like 30 minutes on launch day. I had started to see some of the review scores and talk about the game, but I really tried to give it a fair shot. It didn't take long for me to realize I was wasting my time.

 

[PaintTinJr]

The CMA didn't "cave in". They're being realistic. Their case now has no chance on the basis of both proportionality and comity. If, instead, MSFT can offer structural remedies that satisfy the SLC then they are, by law, required to entertain that. The Judge was just a little frustrated that they just now (in actuality it was a month ago) came to this conclusion, and that he had to walk them through what making the changes necessary to the current processes would look like.

The CMA's deadline for entering evidence is tomorrow. After that point they can write and file the Final Order that allows MSFT/ABK to close, so we could see a closing as early as this week.

And yet they seem like issues that would get argued by experts, and the judge has already stated in the first CMC that the CMA wins on expert opinion, every time.

Nascent markets lack evidence for proportionality, so how do you argue about a regulator defending an undeveloped market with all the data they can get, when the person trying to monopolise is the 2nd largest corporation in the world, with a leading cloud service that is already on ofcom's radar for a market competition issues - with all the other- and has the dominant paid licensed computer operating system in the world - a monopoly they've had for 3 decades - with a proprietary graphics API that was born out of foreclosing the competition in the PC GPU api market and is the OS for 95% of all the world's PC gaming, giving the OS and API pre gaming cloud market monopoly from operability.

The abandoned console SLC was also proved valid and evidenced by the FTC PI case evidence and everyone has missed the esports SLC because CoD has 110m active players a month.

The idea that the market protection argument would be defeated on technicalities when only those unfamiliar with gaming can't see the obvious SLCs is a joke. The judge knows what he's looking at and wouldn't be convinced by theoretical benefits versus measurable consumer and market harm.

 

[FoxMcChief]

now... did you ever think what the fuck he is saying in the end ?

I'm kurming, oh my god I'm kurming.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

And yet they seem like issues that would get argued by experts, and the judge has already stated in the first CMC that the CMA wins on expert opinion, every time.

Nascent markets lack evidence for proportionality, so how do you argue about a regulator defending an undeveloped market with all the data they can get, when the person trying to monopolise is the 2nd largest corporation in the world, with a leading cloud service that is already on ofcom's radar for a market competition issues - with all the other- and has the dominant paid licensed computer operating system in the world - a monopoly they've had for 3 decades - with a proprietary graphics API that was born out of foreclosing the competition in the PC GPU api market and is the OS for 95% of all the world's PC gaming, giving the OS and API pre gaming cloud market monopoly from operability.

The abandoned console SLC was also proved valid and evidenced by the FTC PI case evidence and everyone has missed the esports SLC because CoD has 110m active players a month.

The idea that the market protection argument would be defeated on technicalities when only those unfamiliar with gaming can't see the obvious SLCs is a joke. The judge knows what he's looking at and wouldn't be convinced by theoretical benefits versus measurable consumer and market harm.

You sure focus a lot on what MS does as a corporation.

At the end of the day, it's Call of Duty being bounced around as the lynchpin of gaming. You can relax.

 

[Varteras]

Sorry if posted already.

 

[Three]

Lol @ the shots at Bobby

Johnnywvw54 really seems to hate that guy.

 

[FrankWza]

What if they're the same person?

My bad GHG you weren't supposed to be included. We all know your alt