Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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HoofHearted said:
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Full House 90S Tv GIF
 
jm89 said:
So any more information on the divestiture MS offered?

Last i read was from the bloomberg article about cloud marketing rights. Has there been any more information that's come out since then?
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There are two divestitures that would be structural in nature that the CMA can reasonably accept and still remain in line with their May report, if they require it:

1. MSFT fully divests the xCloud business in the UK, this would theoretically remove MSFTs ability to foreclose access to ATVI games to only their cloud gaming offering, but this is a bit heavy-handed and definitely would present UK gamers with a definitively worse situation than the rest of the world. In my mind the better solution is

2. MSFT divests the publishing rights to ATVI games for Cloud Gaming services that serve the UK. This is a structural remedy under the CMA Act and it would fully remove MSFTs ability to foreclose access to Cloud Gaming services that don't already have an access deal in place (although they could just seek one of those through the EU remedy package). From a UK consumer perspective the only thing that could be worse here is prices for them to access cloud gaming services could possibly be higher (because services would have to buy licensing rights to ATVI games for UK consumers as opposed to getting them for free through the EU remedy package).

This is all under the assumption that the CMA would require a structural remedy. There's nothing in their mandate which forces them to only accept structural remedies, they apparently just find behavior remedies harder to monitor and enforce, but in this case the EU has already set all that up for them. They did all the hard work for the CMA already. Moreover, both of these divestitures, while nominally acceptable to the CMA, would present UK consumers with a worse situation than the entire rest of the planet Earth. That's why I personally think, once they step through it logically, they'll come to the conclusion that no structural remedies are needed and just move ahead with the approval.

The CMA could just be like "yeah we fucked up, the behavior remedies already in place will work, and we don't even have to worry about monitoring/enforcing!" and enter a Final Decision that derogates from their Final Report (through the use of an MCC [Material Change of Circumstances]) and approve the merger.

HoofHearted said:
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I believe
 
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Vox Machina said:
There are two divestitures that would be structural in nature that the CMA can reasonably accept and still remain in line with their May report, if they require it:

1. MSFT fully divests the xCloud business in the UK, this would theoretically remove MSFTs ability to foreclose access to ATVI games to only their cloud gaming offering, but this is a bit heavy-handed and definitely would present UK gamers with a definitively worse situation than the rest of the world. In my mind the better solution is

2. MSFT divests the publishing rights to ATVI games for Cloud Gaming services that serve the UK. This is a structural remedy under the CMA Act and it would fully remove MSFTs ability to foreclose access to Cloud Gaming services that don't already have an access deal in place (although they could just seek one of those through the EU remedy package). From a UK consumer perspective the only thing that could be worse here is prices for them to access cloud gaming services could possibly be higher (because services would have to buy licensing rights to ATVI games for UK consumers as opposed to getting them for free through the EU remedy package).
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Neither of these are acceptable outcomes to Microsoft. They have bigger implications for MSFT as a whole. If CMA maintains this view, I wouldn't be surprised for MS to walk away or pay the rolling, significant, fines that come with closing over the CMA/UK.

Additionally, if they were willing to use either of these options, the deal would have closed long ago.
 
Pelta88 said:
Neither of these are acceptable outcomes to Microsoft. They have bigger implications for MSFT as a whole. If CMA maintains this view, I wouldn't be surprised for MS to walk away or pay the rolling, significant, fines that come with closing over the CMA/UK.

Additionally, if they were willing to use either of these options, the deal would have closed long ago.
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Both of these are probably more than acceptable to MSFT. They get to consummate their merger and in exchange they make a concession in a vanishingly small market that hasn't grown, basically, _at all_ in over a decade.

Sony bought Gaikai in 2012. Since then the cloud gaming market has likely SHRUNK as a percentage of the overall gaming market (it's 1% as of today). It's a garbage business that basically nobody actually wants to pay for.

If you're MSFT would you rather own ATVI and its bajillion devs and legendary IP orrrrrrr not have to run a shit business in the UK? The answer seems simple to me.

If anything it's the CMA that would have to answer for why UK customers are getting a worse deal that the rest of the world when the rest of the world has either implicitly or explicitly decided this transaction (with the EU Remedies in place) poses no harm to competition. That's why I think it's taking longer than expected, because I think they're debating whether to use the MCC to just approve vs requiring a divestiture that could conceivably give UK gamers a raw deal.
 
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Pelta88 said:
Neither of these are acceptable outcomes to Microsoft. They have bigger implications for MSFT as a whole. If CMA maintains this view, I wouldn't be surprised for MS to walk away or pay the rolling, significant, fines that come with closing over the CMA/UK.

Additionally, if they were willing to use either of these options, the deal would have closed long ago.
Click to expand...
This whole time you had inside sources at MS and didn't tell us?
 
Vox Machina said:
Both of these are probably more than acceptable to MSFT. They get to consummate their merger and in exchange they make a concession in a vanishingly small market that hasn't grown, basically, _at all_ in over a decade.

Sony bought Gaikai in 2012. Since then the cloud gaming market has likely SHRUNK as a percentage of the overall gaming market (it's 1% as of today). It's a garbage business that basically nobody actually wants to pay for.

If you're MSFT would you rather own ATVI and its bajillion devs and legendary IP orrrrrrr not have to run a shit business in the UK? The answer seems simple to me.

If anything it's the CMA that would have to answer for why UK customers are getting a worse deal that the rest of the world when the rest of the world has either implicitly or explicitly decided this transaction (with the EU Remedies in place) poses no harm to competition. That's why I think it's taking longer than expected, because I think they're debating whether to use the MCC to just approve vs requiring a divestiture that could conceivably give UK gamers a raw deal.
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Makes me laugh at this kind of take. Assuming the CMA block it and MS ignore it then the implications are on MS as a whole in the UK. MS is more than Xbox and MS makes more money in the UK from you know MS products not Xbox.

Also the pathetic attempt to equate UK market to some.3rd world country. Xbox has zero presence outside of the US other than the UK and for MS as whole it's one of their biggest markets.

Or we pretending the EU is one country now.
 
Slicker than your average said:
Makes me laugh at this kind of take. Assuming the CMA block it and MS ignore it then the implications are on MS as a whole in the UK. MS is more than Xbox and MS makes more money in the UK from you know MS products not Xbox.

Also the pathetic attempt to equate UK market to some.3rd world country. Xbox has zero presence outside of the US other than the UK and for MS as whole it's one of their biggest markets.

Or we pretending the EU is one country now.
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3rd world country? I not seeing attempt to insinuate such a thing in that posters post.
 
bitbydeath said:
If CMA blocks, the UK won't get a worse deal, the merger would simply be dead for the umpteenth time.
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The merger will close with or without UK. this deal is done. just try to accept that and be done with it please.

This whole CMA delay thing is just to save face for the CMA. period....... ..
 
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//DEVIL// said:
The merger will close with or without UK. this deal is done. just try to accept that and be done with it please.

This whole CMA delay thing is just to save face for the CMA. period.
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That's not how mergers work, but good luck with that thinking.

Edit: Apologies if that was a joke post, too early. 😅
 
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Slicker than your average said:
Makes me laugh at this kind of take. Assuming the CMA block it and MS ignore it then the implications are on MS as a whole in the UK. MS is more than Xbox and MS makes more money in the UK from you know MS products not Xbox.

Also the pathetic attempt to equate UK market to some.3rd world country. Xbox has zero presence outside of the US other than the UK and for MS as whole it's one of their biggest markets.

Or we pretending the EU is one country now.
Click to expand...

I... didn't do that at all?

bitbydeath said:
If CMA blocks, the UK won't get a worse deal, the merger would simply be dead for the umpteenth time.
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I think MSFT has a good chance at the CAT should the CMA commit to their stance, but hypothetically, should the block stand, then the CMA will have all but killed the "nascent market" they purportedly are trying to protect. I'm that case any cloud gaming provider would have to pay astronomical licensing fees for the ActiBlizz catalog of games, all but guaranteeing that only the deep-pocketed cloud and traditional-gaming incumbents would be able to compete. If the CMA truly believes ActiBlizz content is critical to the success of a cloud-gaming business (it isn't) and wants to engender dynamicity of said market then the logical route to choose is to accept the EU remedies, as they _fundamentally_ provide for the content a prospective non-incumbent cloud-gaming provider would need to jumpstart a new competitive business in the ecosystem.

Blocking what the EU considers a procompetitive deal would have the complete opposite effect. In effect the CMA would be causing a worse deal for the entire rest of the world due to the loss of the procompetitive effects for everyone. This is why comity is a big deal.
 
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Vox Machina said:
I think MSFT has a good chance at the CAT should the CMA commit to their stance, but hypothetically, should the block stand, then the CMA will have all but killed the "nascent market" they purportedly are trying to protect. I'm that case any cloud gaming provider would have to pay astronomical licensing fees for the ActiBlizz catalog of games, all but guaranteeing that only the deep-pocketed cloud and traditional-gaming incumbents would be able to compete. If the CMA truly believes ActiBlizz content is critical to the success of a cloud-gaming business (it isn't) and wants to engender dynamicity of said market then the logical route to choose is to accept the EU remedies, as they _fundamentally_ provide for the content a prospective non-incumbent cloud-gaming provider would need to jumpstart a new competitive business in the ecosystem.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised that if in future (once streaming becomes popular) that owners of cloud infrastructure won't be allowed to stream their own games.

It'll take a while to get to that point but once they start severely undercutting others due to owning the hardware they'll likely get pushed out.
 
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Vox Machina said:
I... didn't do that at all?



I think MSFT has a good chance at the CAT should the CMA commit to their stance, but hypothetically, should the block stand, then the CMA will have all but killed the "nascent market" they purportedly are trying to protect. I'm that case any cloud gaming provider would have to pay astronomical licensing fees for the ActiBlizz catalog of games, all but guaranteeing that only the deep-pocketed cloud and traditional-gaming incumbents would be able to compete. If the CMA truly believes ActiBlizz content is critical to the success of a cloud-gaming business (it isn't) and wants to engender dynamicity of said market then the logical route to choose is to accept the EU remedies, as they _fundamentally_ provide for the content a prospective non-incumbent cloud-gaming provider would need to jumpstart a new competitive business in the ecosystem.

Blocking what the EU considers a procompetitive deal would have the complete opposite effect. In effect the CMA would be causing a worse deal for the entire rest of the world due to the loss of the procompetitive effects for everyone. This is why comity is a big deal.
Click to expand...
Instead of focusing on my post that exaggerated the 3rd world claim. How about you respond to the rest of it ? Downplaying xboxs biggest market outside the US and one of MS biggest markets and one of the biggest markets in the world. Because it doesn't suit the fan boy narrative.

"Blocking what the EU considers a procompetitive deal would have the complete opposite effect. In effect the CMA would be causing a worse deal for the entire rest of the world due to the loss of the procompetitive effects for everyone. This is why comity is a big deal."

What the hell is this drivel? Blocking a deal that benefits MS, is some how a worse Deal worldwide, or specially gamers worldwide? #MSFT indeed
 
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Slicker than your average said:
Instead of focusing on my post that exaggerated the 3rd world claim. How about you respond to the rest of it ? Downplaying xboxs biggest market outside the US and one of MS biggest markets and one of the biggest markets in the world. Because it doesn't suit the fan boy narrative.
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I didn't do that either. To be honest I was pretty confused by your reply in general because you seem to be crusading against a message I didn't even write.

Slicker than your average said:
"Blocking what the EU considers a procompetitive deal would have the complete opposite effect. In effect the CMA would be causing a worse deal for the entire rest of the world due to the loss of the procompetitive effects for everyone. This is why comity is a big deal."

What the hell is this drivel? Blocking a deal that benefits MS, is some how a worse Deal worldwide, or specially gamers worldwide? #MSFT indeed
Click to expand...

What exactly do you think "procompetitive" means? It means absent the merger competition is weaker, which means blocking it results in a worse proposition than approving it (with the EU remedies).

bitbydeath said:
I wouldn't be surprised that if in future (once streaming becomes popular) that owners of cloud infrastructure won't be allowed to stream their own games.

It'll take a while to get to that point but once they start severely undercutting others due to owning the hardware they'll likely get pushed out.
Click to expand...

Could happen. DMCC (The proposed UK Digital Markets bill) does grant the CMA the power to make a "pro-competitive intervention" (Chapter 4, Page 45): https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-03/0350/220350.pdf
 
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Goalus said:
If I were the CMA, I would force MS to bring the entire Heretic/Hexen series to consoles. Also Mageslayer, Take No Prisoners and Soldier of Fortune. If they comply, they can have Activision.
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That's small time. If I were the cma, I'd give all the sierra franchises back to Ken and Roberta Williams along with a billion dollars and see where they go. The way sierra got fucked in the late 90s because of merger bullshit sucked. I'd like to think we'd have more riftwar saga games. Betrayal at Krondor was a far better game then anything Bethesda made. I wonder what could be made of that with modern tech.
 
Vox Machina said:
I... didn't do that at all?



I think MSFT has a good chance at the CAT should the CMA commit to their stance, but hypothetically, should the block stand, then the CMA will have all but killed the "nascent market" they purportedly are trying to protect. I'm that case any cloud gaming provider would have to pay astronomical licensing fees for the ActiBlizz catalog of games, all but guaranteeing that only the deep-pocketed cloud and traditional-gaming incumbents would be able to compete. If the CMA truly believes ActiBlizz content is critical to the success of a cloud-gaming business (it isn't) and wants to engender dynamicity of said market then the logical route to choose is to accept the EU remedies, as they _fundamentally_ provide for the content a prospective non-incumbent cloud-gaming provider would need to jumpstart a new competitive business in the ecosystem.

Blocking what the EU considers a procompetitive deal would have the complete opposite effect. In effect the CMA would be causing a worse deal for the entire rest of the world due to the loss of the procompetitive effects for everyone. This is why comity is a big deal.
Click to expand...
OR, MS could not acquire ABK and leave us without concerns with regards a huge tech giant becoming even larger and pushing forward an out spend strategy. Leaving us where we were with no need for any remedies to appease. Are you seriously of the delusional belief that MS are a white knight here coming to bring happiness to all of its competitors of today and tomorrow?
 
bitbydeath said:
I wouldn't be surprised that if in future (once streaming becomes popular) that owners of cloud infrastructure won't be allowed to stream their own games.
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You mean like how the boys can't be streamed on prime because amazon own the infrastructure and create the series? Your homelander avatar is the perfect expression for this take.
 
King Dazzar said:
OR, MS could not acquire ABK and leave us without concerns with regards a huge tech giant becoming even larger and pushing forward an out spend strategy. Leaving us where we were with no need for any remedies to appease. Are you seriously of the delusional belief that MS are a white knight here coming to bring happiness to all of its competitors of today and tomorrow?
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Big = bad huh?

If you care about the health of Microsofts competitors (lmao), then you should be for the transaction as it as been deemed procompetitive (with the EU remedies in place).
 
Vox Machina said:
Big = bad huh?

If you care about the health of Microsofts competitors (lmao), then you should be for the transaction as it as been deemed procompetitive (with the EU remedies in place).
Click to expand...

EU can deem it to be whatever they want, but that doesn't mean it is true or that anyone has to agree with that interpretation.
 
Vox Machina said:
Big = bad huh?

If you care about the health of Microsofts competitors (lmao), then you should be for the transaction as it as been deemed procompetitive (with the EU remedies in place).
Click to expand...

Yea the EU also thought it was a great idea to rely on a dictator for their energy needs. Even after being warned multiple times not to do that. The EU isn't immune to being wrong and making bad decisions.
 
mayham2199 said:
Yea the EU also thought it was a great idea to rely on a dictator for their energy needs. Even after being warned multiple times not to do that. The EU isn't immune to being wrong and making bad decisions.
Click to expand...

The UK was top 5 richest nations on the planet and our fuel poverty death spiked.

www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk

Over 1,000 dead in December 2022 due to cold homes

Over 1,000 people died in England as a result of living in cold damp homes in December 2022. [1] Based on new analysis by the End Fuel Poverty Coalition of official data for December 2022,
www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk

So yeah, our reliance on Russia fuel, despite the warnings is proof we make mistakes too. The only good thing is that the EU as a whole has started to pivot to solar/wind/hydrogen and less at the oil companies who are making trillions in profit while looking at the tax man like...

200w.gif
 
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