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Microsoft / Activision deal prevented to protect innovation and choice in cloud gaming

MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
GHG said:
He's about to go on a rampage.

It's just a shame that sage is banned and the mage has been decommissioned.
Click to expand...

DarkMage619 DarkMage619 can always join us again.

Join Us Mystery Science Theater 3000 GIF by MOODMAN
 
Sony

Sony

Nintendo
GHG said:
You know, it's a shame that in this instace you've decided to get your talking points from resetera (which is where a google of your quoted text led me, and that was the only result) rather than reading through the report for yourself. The reason I say this is because context is important.

What you quoted is what Microsoft claimed to the CMA as noted by the references:

dTyZvPq.png



And again here:

54owYLZ.png



However this was the CMA's assessment of the claims above (points 8.153-4 are key):

eFQVqoL.png


Yc8bv5B.png


And for the sake of completeness, these were the views from third parties regarding Microsoft's current position while taking Azure into consideration:

FVnfS19.png




And this was the CMA's final assessment regarding Azure:

deZRdIm.png



-------

So in summary:

Microsoft said one thing to the CMA regarding Azure and its relationship to cloud gaming (which is what you've decided to go with), however the evidence out there from their marketing, website and own internal documents proves otherwise. There is too much contradictory evidence out there to ignore.

And as a bonus here's one last nugget for you to chew on (page 247 of the final report):

K6AcUhb.png


I hope you can spot the recurring theme here - Microsoft's own internal documents. Funny that.
Click to expand...
That's a very fair point and I'm happy to be corrected. I still don't agree with CMA's extrapolation of market share though. They're going against their own survey data, just like they did with console SLC.
 
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Banjo64

Banjo64

cumsessed
GHG said:
You know, it's a shame that in this instace you've decided to get your talking points from resetera (which is where a google of your quoted text led me, and that was the only result) rather than reading through the report for yourself. The reason I say this is because context is important.

What you quoted is what Microsoft claimed to the CMA as noted by the references:

dTyZvPq.png



And again here:

54owYLZ.png



However this was the CMA's assessment of the claims above (points 8.153-4 are key):

eFQVqoL.png


Yc8bv5B.png


And for the sake of completeness, these were the views from third parties regarding Microsoft's current position while taking Azure into consideration:

FVnfS19.png




And this was the CMA's final assessment regarding Azure:

deZRdIm.png



-------

So in summary:

Microsoft said one thing to the CMA regarding Azure and its relationship to cloud gaming (which is what you've decided to go with), however the evidence out there from their marketing, website and own internal documents proves otherwise. There is too much contradictory evidence out there to ignore.

And as a bonus here's one last nugget for you to chew on (page 247 of the final report):

K6AcUhb.png


I hope you can spot the recurring theme here - Microsoft's own internal documents. Funny that.
Click to expand...
Thank you for absolutely torpedoing that ridiculous notion put forward by MS.
 
Banjo64

Banjo64

cumsessed
Unknown Soldier said:
I still think it's hilarious that $MSFT literally canceled his GAF Gold the day the CMA blocked the acquisition and just vanished into the ether, never to be seen again
Click to expand...
You’re joking? :messenger_tears_of_joy:

At least Sage went out in a blaze of shilling glory.

If Mage is simply cowering, and nothing serious has happened to him or family IRL, then this is probably the most embarrassing and cowardly retreat I’ve ever witnessed online.
 
Astray

Astray

Member


The revenue growth projections for xCloud are insane, MSFT is expecting it to grow from under $50m (2021) to $450 in 2026.

This is insane growth, and makes it basically impossible to dismiss cloud gaming as a potential direction for the industry. And thus, a market that needs to be protected.
 
feynoob

feynoob

Banned
Astray said:


The revenue growth projections for xCloud are insane, MSFT is expecting it to grow from under $50m (2021) to $450 in 2026.

This is insane growth, and makes it basically impossible to dismiss cloud gaming as a potential direction for the industry. And thus, a market that needs to be protected.
Click to expand...

That is because xcloud is tied to gamepass ultimate.
But the problem is how the hell does it make 50m?
Is there another revenue that xcloud is making? Is there like people who use gamepass exclusively for xcloud?

There is a lot of problems here.

My theory would be, due to xcloud being available to the public in June 2021. This means the service had 280k-4m (1month-1year) at that time.
By 2022, it grow up to 10m userbase. But then there is the fortnite Xcloud, which can affect these numbers, so revenue isn't going to be close to 150m, but at least higher than 50m.

as for the 450m revenue, MS is expecting higher gamepass ultimate users who exclusively use xcloud (through smart TV or streaming).
they can achieve that by having stable 3m-5m gamepass ultimate users for entire year. Or 30m gamepass ultimate users paying it for 1 month for 1 year(little bit difficult, due to resubbing).

if MS can make Xbox cloud gaming console and work on their smart TV app, then they can attract more people to their service. One advantage they have over psnow, and the vast library which is different than GeForce and luna.
 
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Astray

Astray

Member
feynoob said:
That is because xcloud is tied to gamepass ultimate.
But the problem is how the hell does it make 50m?
Is there another revenue that xcloud is making? Is there like people who use gamepass exclusively for xcloud?

There is a lot of problems here.

My theory would be, due to xcloud being available to the public in June 2021. This means the service had 280k-4m (1month-1year) at that time.
By 2022, it grow up to 10m userbase. But then there is the fortnite Xcloud, which can affect these numbers, so revenue isn't going to be close to 150m, but at least higher than 50m.

as for the 450m revenue, MS is expecting higher gamepass ultimate users who exclusively use xcloud (through smart TV or streaming).
they can achieve that by having stable 3m-5m gamepass ultimate users for entire year. Or 30m gamepass ultimate users paying it for 1 month for 1 year(little bit difficult, due to resubbing).

if MS can make Xbox cloud gaming console and work on their smart TV app, then they can attract more people to their service. One advantage they have over psnow, and the vast library which is different than GeForce and luna.
Click to expand...
What you should be looking at isn't revenue, it's marketshare.

Right now, Xbox is already in a leading position (up to %70 of the market) because they are bundling xCloud to GP Ultimate, thus, while they are making less money than Sony, they have a far higher penetration in terms of user count. Xbox can take this financial hit because they are getting Azure services at cost, and because they have a $1.8 trillion machine propping up their otherwise deeply loss-making gaming business. Playstation doesn't have those advantages, they have to rent Azure or AWS for real money on terms that are favorable to the vendor AND they don't have the cash buffer to keep losing money, their pricing needs to make them money in order to sustain the service.

Additionally, when it comes to cloud streaming, network effects have paramount importance, maybe even more than in the consoles segment, because your switching costs are minimal, if I have a PS5 when all my friends have Xboxes, and I want to play say, Sea of Thieves with them, that means I have to shell out $350-$500 at a minimum, plus the cost of either GP or buying the game, now change this to PS Now vs xCloud: The switching costs is almost zero in comparison, all I have to do is start a sub for like $15-$25 a month, and if I don't like Sea of Thieves I can just cancel the sub. This means that cloud platforms can generate a far bigger swing over time, and it can be "sticky" if the must-have games keep flowing.

CMA is absolutely correct to block this deal for Cloud markets, and we might have to thank them in a decade's time too.
 
feynoob

feynoob

Banned
Astray said:
What you should be looking at isn't revenue, it's marketshare.

Right now, Xbox is already in a leading position (up to %70 of the market) because they are bundling xCloud to GP Ultimate, thus, while they are making less money than Sony, they have a far higher penetration in terms of user count. Xbox can take this financial hit because they are getting Azure services at cost, and because they have a $1.8 trillion machine propping up their otherwise deeply loss-making gaming business. Playstation doesn't have those advantages, they have to rent Azure or AWS for real money on terms that are favorable to the vendor AND they don't have the cash buffer to keep losing money, their pricing needs to make them money in order to sustain the service.

Additionally, when it comes to cloud streaming, network effects have paramount importance, maybe even more than in the consoles segment, because your switching costs are minimal, if I have a PS5 when all my friends have Xboxes, and I want to play say, Sea of Thieves with them, that means I have to shell out $350-$500 at a minimum, plus the cost of either GP or buying the game, now change this to PS Now vs xCloud: The switching costs is almost zero in comparison, all I have to do is start a sub for like $15-$25 a month, and if I don't like Sea of Thieves I can just cancel the sub. This means that cloud platforms can generate a far bigger swing over time, and it can be "sticky" if the must-have games keep flowing.

CMA is absolutely correct to block this deal for Cloud markets, and we might have to thank them in a decade's time too.
Click to expand...
The real kicker is browser streaming and TV streaming.
Xcloud has both of these advantages against luna and GeForce.

Let's say you don't have smart TV, but have a computer. All you need is a working browser and you can access the service easily. That is big advantage over GeForce, as you can use xcloud from computer to computer without having to download the app.

You can see why CMA doesn't want MS to have total control.
 
Bernardougf

Bernardougf

Member
Banjo64 said:
You’re joking? :messenger_tears_of_joy:

At least Sage went out in a blaze of shilling glory.

If Mage is simply cowering, and nothing serious has happened to him or family IRL, then this is probably the most embarrassing and cowardly retreat I’ve ever witnessed online.
Click to expand...
The difference between a paid "professional" shill and just a blind fanboy screaming nonsense... one knows when to shut up and comeback to defend/promote the company another time. The other is in full tweeter conspiracy mode
 
ChuckeRearmed

ChuckeRearmed

Member
Astray said:
This is insane growth, and makes it basically impossible to dismiss cloud gaming as a potential direction for the industry. And thus, a market that needs to be protected.
Click to expand...
Insane growth? From 400m to 1b in 200b market? Like going from 0.25% to around 0.6% (assuming gaming market remains static). That's certainly one way to call it insane lol
 
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Astray

Astray

Member
ChuckeRearmed said:
Insane growth? From 400m to 1b in 200b market? Like going from 0.25% to around 0.6% (assuming gaming market remains static). That's certainly one way to call it insane lol
Click to expand...
Yes, this is a huge rate of growth, averaging over %80-100 every year. Not all growth is linear, and if this grows in a logarithmic manner then it will gather critical mass surprisingly quickly.
 
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