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[shinra-bansho]

Where are my assumptions exactly? I laid out evidence for you. A) has facts, B) has facts and estimates from me and others, C) has facts.

They're all over the place. I don't really feel the need to point them out as most are self-evident. I will note one that may not be clear in that you can't directly compare shipments and sell-through to begin with. The only facts in there are the US NPD number, which is slightly (7K) off.

 

[Miles X]

About C: just because they sold X in NPD doesn't mean they shipped exactly X to US in that quarter. We have no idea to know how much MS is shipping to US.

Yes but we're seeing a trend, go back the previous year and you'll see the same thing. Over 1 or 2 Q's I agree, but if it's a long running trend it's pretty evident they're shipping them elsewhere, unless you think they're stockpiling them somewhere for the last 2 years?

They're all over the place. I don't really feel the need to point them out as most are self-evident. I will note one that may not be clear in that you can't directly compare shipments and sell-through to begin with.

Uh huh, another that failed to see my point. I was talking about a trend for the past 2 years.

Fact of the matter is over the last 2 years they have shipped 9m units (give or take a few hundred k from being unsure on the last 2 Q's) but have sold in the US 3.7m

 

[SwiftDeath]

CYQ1: -67.6%
CYQ2: -50.5%
CYQ3: -53.6%

It's hard to compare sell-through and shipments directly though, given sell-through is retrospective, but in some respects shipments are prospective i.e. shipments recorded on September 30th likely won't be sold-through in the quarter.

Sigh just got finished with my excel work on that and it's in the next post already. Thanks

CYQ1 is FYQ3 for MS which had less of a drop in shipments [-38.5%] compared to FYQ2 [-40.5%] but a much more severe drop in US sales of the 360 in that time span [-67.6% versus 50.5%] so clearly there is some lag time or something in effect.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YOY changes for 360 Shipments And US sales
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarter    |   FY13/14_Q1   |   FY13/14_Q2  |   FY13/14_Q3  |   FY13/14_Q4  | FY14/15_Q1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WW360Ship  |     -29.5%     |     -40.5%    |     -38.5%    |      ???      |     ???    |
NPDUSSales |     -42.6%     |     -50.3%    |     -67.6%    |     -50.5%    |    -53.5%  |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So I really don't think 60% drop YOY for 360 WW shipments seems likely personally as the correlation between US sales and WW shipments doesn't seem particularly strong

 

[ninjablade]

I'm a bit skeptical about this 60% drop for 360 estimates... I have the feeling it is doing better than most people expect here.

700k is my personal estimate but well I can be wrong

So how do you feel about the prediction you made about wiiu being in second place, I thought it was laughable.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Uh huh, another that failed to see my point. I was talking about a trend for the past 2 years.

My post wasn't at issue with speculation and inference based on any assumption, my post was directed at the presentation of numerical information as if based on more than assumption, leading to my being genuinely curious where these numbers were from.

The only factual numerical data we have access to is Xbox 360 shipments through June 9th 2013, Japanese Xbox 360 sell-through and US Xbox 360 sell-through through September tracking.
Shipments and sell-through shouldn't be compared directly in the first place, there's no information on what the drop has or hasn't been in the last two quarters and people's assumptions of what was shipped of each product line are just that.

Also, even based on these inferences, the conclusion drawn isn't necessarily valid - that the 360 is doing well outside of the US, unless by well you simply mean it's holding better comparatively as the generation dwindles.

 

[Welfare]

Welfare, suggesting 400k 360 shipped in Q4 FY13/14 [Apr-June] suggests a 60% YOY drop for that quarter while the largest drop YOY for the 3 previous quarters was 40%. I really don't see that as likely.



With Q1 FY14/15 360 shipments I'm not sure why that would then be a 50% drop YOY

You're suggesting the trend is something like 30% drop, 40% drop, 39% drop, 60% drop, 50% drop. Doesn't seem the most logical approach to the situation even if one was to assume the bottom was falling out of 360 sales as why would it go up to a 60% drop YOY and then drop back down?

I should really pull up calendar 2013 NPD 360 sales and compare them to calendar 2014 NPD sales to get a better idea of how consistent the YOY drop is from quarter to quarter

Well what would cause an uptick in sales during Quarter 4 to go from 150k per month to a higher number that would not equal a 60% drop? Didn't MS also say they would lower shipments so retailers could clear through current stock?

The quarters before the One came out shouldn't be taken that much into account here, as we would be assuming that even with lowered demand and a successor out, the 360 would follow a similar trend of lowered shipments.

Also that post was on a 30 minute rush to just post, so I didn't put as much thought into it as I would like.

 

[ethomaz]

So how do you feel about the prediction you made about wiiu being in second place, I thought it was laughable.

Why? I think Nintendo have chance yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Well what would cause an uptick in sales during Quarter 4 to go from 150k per month to a higher number that would not equal a 60% drop? Didn't MS also say they would lower shipments so retailers could clear through current stock?

Is the 150k per month based off of the 84M hit announcement? Because that would be the absolute minimum they were at when they announced it and most likely they were above it by some number, be it 100,000 or 200,000 more

The quarters before the One came out shouldn't be taken that much into account here, as we would be assuming that even with lowered demand and a successor out, the 360 would follow a similar trend of lowered shipments.

Unfortunately if we only allow quarterly data that includes the XB1, that gives us a whole 2 data points to use in that regard as the last two quarterly reports feature combined numbers

Also that post was on a 30 minute rush to just post, so I didn't put as much thought into it as I would like.

No worries, I just have a differing opinion based on the YOY declines for 360 shipments. Jumping from 40% to 60% seems extreme as the real world sales don't necessarily seem to suggest that should be the case, not that sell-through appears all that useful for shipment data mind you

 

[Miles X]

Why? I think Nintendo have chance yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

XB1 will end up shipped 11/12m (Which means 9.5/10.5m sell through in a year)

WiiU is going to be lucky to beat out Gamecube lifetime, you really expect XB1 to plummet in 2015 and beyond?

 

[ninjablade]

Why? I think Nintendo have change yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

You have to be insane to think that, xb1 is already out shipping the wiiu and the wiiu had a year head start, not to mention XB1 will have strong third party support and haven't even released there biggest franchise yet.

 

[Guevara]

So many Microsoft threads! Couple quotes from the investor call:

Now let’s talk gaming. As I previously said, gaming is an important category that will drive additive business value for Microsoft. It is a single biggest digital live category measured in both time and money spent across devices of all type. We launched Xbox One in 28 markets, increased console unit sales from a year ago, and grew users of Xbox LIVE apps by more than 20%. The acquisition of Mojang which we expect to close in November, extends our ecosystem and community across multiple platforms.

In computing and gaming, we expect revenue to be $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion (ed. Next Quarter). This range reflects growth in Xbox One consoles over the last year, but a mix shift to lower price SKUs announced last June. With the momentum we are seeing with Surface Pro 3, we expect units to grow sequentially.​

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

[Miles X]

So many Microsoft threads! Couple quotes from the investor call:

Now let’s talk gaming. As I previously said, gaming is an important category that will drive additive business value for Microsoft. It is a single biggest digital live category measured in both time and money spent across devices of all type. We launched Xbox One in 28 markets, increased console unit sales from a year ago, and grew users of Xbox LIVE apps by more than 20%. The acquisition of Mojang which we expect to close in November, extends our ecosystem and community across multiple platforms.

In computing and gaming, we expect revenue to be $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion (ed. Next Quarter). This range reflects growth in Xbox One consoles over the last year, but a mix shift to lower price SKUs announced last June. With the momentum we are seeing with Surface Pro 3, we expect units to grow sequentially.​

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

So even taking into account the lower priced skus they attribute anticipated higher XB1 sales picking up the flack, so they expect more than the 3.9m last holiday.

 

[Welfare]

Is the 150k per month based off of the 84M hit announcement? Because that would be the absolute minimum they were at when they announced it and most likely they were above it by some number, be it 100,000 or 200,000 more

Well, this Gamespot article makes it sound like they just got to 84 million units.

Unfortunately if we only allow quarterly data that includes the XB1, that gives us a whole 2 data points to use in that regard as the last two quarterly reports feature combined numbers

Yeah, the combined sales makes this so much harder to figure out.

No worries, I just have a differing opinion based on the YOY declines for 360 shipments. Jumping from 40% to 60% seems extreme as the real world sales don't necessarily seem to suggest that should be the case, not that sell-through appears all that useful for shipment data mind you

And that's fine with me.

Maybe at the end of the year we can get an update of each individually.

 

[SwiftDeath]

What exactly qualifies as a Xbox Live App? Like all the netflix, twitchs, youtube apps? And if so I guess rolling out the twitch app probably helped

Well, this Gamespot article makes it sound like they just got to 84 million units.

I've read that and while it uses "risen to" that's not exactly an exact statement in my mind. It would be nice if we got an update of each individually at some point but I don't think that's likely for a while

Do people think if the XB1 hit say 10M, MS would announce it? Like at what point are we to likely hear WW sales of it again?

 

[Guevara]

What exactly qualifies as a Xbox Live App? Like all the netflix, twitchs, youtube apps? And if so I guess rolling out the twitch app probably helped

Non-gaming console uses, is how I'm interpreting it?

 

[Welfare]

So even taking into account the lower priced skus they attribute anticipated higher XB1 sales picking up the flack, so they expect more than the 3.9m last holiday.

That would be crazy good for the One, and would definitely put it over 10 million shipped this year, maybe even 11 million depending just how much they sell.

What exactly qualifies as a Xbox Live App? Like all the netflix, twitchs, youtube apps? And if so I guess rolling out the twitch app probably helped

Yeah, any app that isn't gaming I guess.

 

[Miles X]

What exactly qualifies as a Xbox Live App? Like all the netflix, twitchs, youtube apps? And if so I guess rolling out the twitch app probably helped



I've read that and while it uses "risen to" that's not exactly an exact statement in my mind. It would be nice if we got an update of each individually at some point but I don't think that's likely for a while

Do people think if the XB1 hit say 10M, MS would announce it? Like at what point are we to likely hear WW sales of it again?

Wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get another LTD ever again :\ as time goes on they're just going to lag further and further behind PS4.

In a year or 2 tho 360 shipments will be so small that it'll be easy to work out ourselves anyway.

 

[Welfare]

Do people think if the XB1 hit say 10M, MS would announce it? Like at what point are we to likely hear WW sales of it again?

We will most likely see a 10 million announcement... if they reach it this year. If not, we aren't getting anything most likely.

 

[Mass Effect]

Wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get another LTD ever again :\ as time goes on they're just going to lag further and further behind PS4.

This is what I'm expecting too. I don't think we'll ever get another sold through LTD on the Xbone.

 

[Pathfinder]

I would say below average.
You know what's going on, when one of them (MS/Sony/Ninty) combines last&next gen numbers and only reveals "shipped" numbers.

Well, regarding Sony, at least we get "detailed" sales numbers (sold, not shipped) every 3 or 4 months. But last gen though....

Combining gen numbers, you mean like this?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-ps3-and-vita-combined-have-sold-over-100-milli/1100-6421018/

 

[JaggedSac]

So many Microsoft threads! Couple quotes from the investor call:

Now let’s talk gaming. As I previously said, gaming is an important category that will drive additive business value for Microsoft. It is a single biggest digital live category measured in both time and money spent across devices of all type. We launched Xbox One in 28 markets, increased console unit sales from a year ago, and grew users of Xbox LIVE apps by more than 20%. The acquisition of Mojang which we expect to close in November, extends our ecosystem and community across multiple platforms.

In computing and gaming, we expect revenue to be $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion (ed. Next Quarter). This range reflects growth in Xbox One consoles over the last year, but a mix shift to lower price SKUs announced last June. With the momentum we are seeing with Surface Pro 3, we expect units to grow sequentially.​

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

How many Bones did they sell last holiday quarter?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get another LTD ever again :\ as time goes on they're just going to lag further and further behind PS4.

In a year or 2 tho 360 shipments will be so small that it'll be easy to work out ourselves anyway.

Sony were super secret about their numbers and even they eventually gave some LTD's but you're probably right not to expect any from MS for a long long time :\

They'll always be quite a way behind Sony WW so it would be hard to announce them without looking bad

We will most likely see a 10 million announcement... if they reach it this year. If not, we aren't getting anything most likely.

Yeah that's kind of what I was hoping for. Some little announcement to show it's still growing at a healthy clip if not at PS4 rates.

 

[Miles X]

How many Bones did they sell last holiday quarter?

3.9m

Sony were super secret about their numbers and even they eventually gave some LTD's but you're probably right not to expect any from MS for a long long time :\

They'll always be quite a way behind Sony WW so it would be hard to announce them without looking bad



Yeah that's kind of what I was hoping for. Some little announcement to show it's still growing at a healthy clip if not at PS4 rates.

When it starts hitting its stride MS might be a bit more relaxed giving numbers. I mean we go them during the XBOX era, I just expect them to be few and far between (25m, 50m).

Also, I imagine if WiiU is under 7.5m~ they will want to say something about overtaking it and being #2 (even if they're not in actual sales, they speak the language of shipments).

 

[JaggedSac]

3.9m

Thanks

 

[Altered Juice]

Youch. Maybe it will just be Ninty and Sony by 2017...

...are you serious, brah?

 

[Miles X]

Thanks

If I had to predict I would say 6m combined (down 1.4m YOY) 1.7m 360's and 4.3m XB1's.

But that's without NPD results.

 

[theprodigy]

Why? I think Nintendo have chance yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

Why would the Wii U stay ahead when it's getting outsold easily nearly every month?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Why would the Wii U stay ahead when it's getting outsold easily nearly every month?

Be fair, it sells almost 20k - 25k more a month than XB1 in Japan. That's not nothing

Spoiler

lol

UK sales of XB1 likely almost completely counteract Wii U sales in France + Germany and then there's the US market where the XB1 is already ~725k ahead

 

[Friction]

Why? I think Nintendo have chance yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

Sony is killing it with sales. Xbox One is hitting expectations. WiiU on the other hand is still in struggling in sales.

 

[ethomaz]

Why would the Wii U stay ahead when it's getting outsold easily nearly every month?

I think you have a chance to stay ahead... the sales will be close in my opinion... 2015 will show how much the real Xbox sales are (I think it will decrease a lot in sales compared with this year).

 

[Miles X]

I think you have a chance to stay ahead... the sales will be close in my opinion... 2015 will show how much the real Xbox sales are (I think it will decrease a lot in sales compared with this year).

They're gonna drop 50%~ YOY on the basis of a price cut and a killer line up? Okay.

 

[Welfare]

Why? I think Nintendo have chance yet... I think the real battle will be Wii U vs Xbox One.

Why? The only battle right now between the 2 is when does the One outship/outsell it? This Quarter, next quarter?

Unless the Wii U somehow makes up the difference between it and the Gamecube this holiday and then some, there is no chance for the Wii U.

 

[ninjablade]

I think you have a chance to stay ahead... the sales will be close in my opinion... 2015 will show how much the real Xbox sales are (I think it will decrease a lot in sales compared with this year).

with no real big system sellers for wiiu next year and no third party support this is just insane. The Xbox1 will crush the wiiu cause of third party suppport and halo, if advertised right GtAv can be a huge system seller for both ps4 and xb1 as well, come on now let's try to be realistic.

 

[Zones]

Sony is releasing their numbers next week, see if that $23b you just claimed they did last quarter (can't find anything on $23b) reflects on the numbers.

Outside of the fact that I accidentally quoted their last Christmas revenue number in place of their last quarter's number (thanks for pointing out the correct number jcm), I am not sure how that's relevant to your first comment which said...

$23.20b revenue, thats more that Sony's market cap.

The facts still stand; Sony's revenue for their last fiscal year was above $75 billion, while Microsoft's was above $86 billion. So can you please point out to me how all those are in any shape or form relevant to Sony's market cap?

...

Okay I'll cut to the chase. This topic here is about Microsoft's quarterly income and more importantly, Xbox sales. Obviously, it's understandable for people to compare and analyse Xbox sales in comparison to PlayStation's. However, your comment was not only entirely irrelevant to this discussion here as you took a jab at Sony for no reason, but you did so ignorantly by using a mostly irrelevant number.

Well at least this whole discussion led to some genuinely funny responses.

 

[ethomaz]

with no real big system sellers for wiiu next year and no third party support this is just insane. The Xbox1 will crush the wiiu cause of third party suppport and halo, if advertised right GtAv can be a huge system seller for both ps4 and xb1 as well, come on now let's try to be realistic.

I agree X will sell more this holiday but I believe it will drop even more than this year in the next year... sales at the Wii U level.

They're gonna drop 50%~ YOY on the basis of a price cut and a killer line up? Okay.

Price cut? Killer app? Are you talking about the same 2015 than me? January for X will be even worst than this January in my opinion... I will be happy to be wrong because the industry needs to grow and it is impossible with two consoles doing meh sales.

 

[Brad Grenz]

We will most likely see a 10 million announcement... if they reach it this year. If not, we aren't getting anything most likely.

Honestly, I doubt they will be over 10m sold through until August of next year.

 

[ethomaz]

And about the 4.4m 360 shipped in the first anniversary guys... can XB1 top it? GTA and MCC are the games I think can boost it sales this year but I'm not sure about 4.4m... I guess it will be down yoy and won't match 360 performance.

 

[Chobel]

What exactly qualifies as a Xbox Live App? Like all the netflix, twitchs, youtube apps? And if so I guess rolling out the twitch app probably helped



I've read that and while it uses "risen to" that's not exactly an exact statement in my mind. It would be nice if we got an update of each individually at some point but I don't think that's likely for a while

Do people think if the XB1 hit say 10M, MS would announce it? Like at what point are we to likely hear WW sales of it again?

I think it depends on PS4 numbers, if it's anything around 2:1 when compared to PS4 (17.5M or more PS4) then we'll never going to hear it. If it's around 1:1.5 or less and it happened this year I think MS will announce 10 M milestone.

 

[Biker19]

Outside of the fact that I accidentally quoted their last Christmas revenue number in place of their last quarter's number (thanks for pointing out the correct number jcm), I am not sure how that's relevant to your first comment which said...

The facts still stand; Sony's revenue for their last fiscal year was above $75 billion, while Microsoft's was above $86 billion. So can you please point out to me how all those are in any shape or form relevant to Sony's market cap?

...

Okay I'll cut to the chase. This topic here is about Microsoft's quarterly income and more importantly, Xbox sales. Obviously, it's understandable for people to compare and analyse Xbox sales in comparison to PlayStation's. However, your comment was not only entirely irrelevant to this discussion here as you took a jab at Sony for no reason, but you did so ignorantly by using a mostly irrelevant number.

Well at least this whole discussion led to some genuinely funny responses.

I agree. HighResTomato's derailed the thread long enough.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

I agree X will sell more this holiday but I believe it will drop even more than this year in the next year... sales at the Wii U level.

It's very probable that they're already ahead of Nintendo and this holiday season will just widen the gap. Sales might drop to Wii U levels in mainland Europe, but US/UK will ensure that the X1 outsells the Wii U consistently.

Japan is not gonna buy enough Wii U's for them to be able to keep up

 

[SgtCobra]

Honestly, I doubt they will be over 10m sold through until August of next year.

That's a bit extreme isn't it?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Honestly, I doubt they will be over 10m sold through until August of next year.

If we assume they are a bit over 6 Million sold, then that would be an epic disaster with the holiday period coming up.

 

[SwiftDeath]

And about the 4.4m 360 shipped in the first anniversary guys... can XB1 top it? GTA and MCC are the games I think can boost it sales this year but I'm not sure about 4.4m... I guess it will be down yoy and won't match 360 performance.

I think it''s possible but I think it's just as likely it hits below that as the 360 likely performed better in the ROTW in that timeframe than the XB1 will. If I had to pick one I'd say XB1 will do less than 4.4M shipped in Q2 FY14/15

I think it depends on PS4 numbers, if it's anything around 2:1 when compared to PS4 (17.5M or more PS4) then we'll never going to hear it. If it's around 1:1.5 or less and it happened this year I think MS will announce 10 M milestone.

That seems a reasonable position on it. I'm almost certain that MS will hit 10M shipped this holiday season so if MS is willing to admit that much than maybe we'll get that at some point.

It's very probable that they're already ahead of Nintendo and this holiday season will just widen the gap. Sales might drop to Wii U levels in mainland Europe, but US/UK will ensure that the X1 outsells the Wii U consistently.

Japan is not gonna buy enough Wii U's for them to be able to keep up

XB1 mainland europe sales going to Wii U levels would probably be a rise in some countries, not a drop

 

[unknownstranger]

Honestly, I doubt they will be over 10m sold through until August of next year.

Seems like way too long. They should be able to sell another 1.5-2 million in the US this quarter. I think they could squeeze out another million to 1.5 million in the rest of the world this quarter and hit 10 million by Spring next year.

 

[Welfare]

Honestly, I doubt they will be over 10m sold through until August of next year.

Whoa whoa whoa... whoa.

The Xbox One is most likely at 5.7 million units sold to consumers as of October 4th, Assuming it sells the exact same numbers as last holiday (3 million), plus whatever they sell in October, then they only need to sell at most 1 million in 2015. The Xbox One sold that much in the US alone between January to June.

And that is not even counting baseline increases, the addition of more countries (they sell!) and more games coming in Q1 of 2015 compared to 2014.

If they don't hit 10 million this year, they will hit it as late as March 2015.

 

[Guevara]

I don't think Oct-Nov-Dec '14 can match Nov-Dec '13 for Xbox One.

As I like to point out, since January the Xbox One has been trailing 360 launch aligned.

 

[theprodigy]

Whoa whoa whoa... whoa.

The Xbox One is most likely at 5.7 million units sold to consumers as of October 4th, Assuming it sells the exact same numbers as last holiday (3 million), plus whatever they sell in October, then they only need to sell at most 1 million in 2015. The Xbox One sold that much in the US alone between January to June.

And that is not even counting baseline increases, the addition of more countries (they sell!) and more games coming in Q1 of 2015 compared to 2015.

If they don't hit 10 million this year, they will hit it as late as March 2015.

whoa I wanna know what kind of voodoo magic Microsoft has to pull that off

 

[blakep267]

I think well hear hardware and software numbers the next time the xbox wins NPD. So basically the last chances will be oct-december

For example, if they were to win November NPD, we'd get pr with x number of halo sold, shipped numbers, and stats on the bundles, number of new live users.

as for the poster that said next August they'll sell 10 mill, nah. I think They'll sell another 3-4 million by year end. ( I also think sony will do 4-5)

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Seems like way too long. They should be able to sell another 1.5-2 million in the US this quarter. I think they could squeeze out another million to 1.5 million in the rest of the world this quarter and hit 10 million by Spring next year.

Completely agree with the first part (I cannot imagine a scenario where less than 2 million Xbox1s ship this quarter in NA), but the US is the majority of the Xbox market now. I do not think the rest of the wworld is 50% or more of Xbox1s sold. US/UK sales are likely the Lions share of the holiday units moved.

 

[Welfare]

I don't think Oct-Nov-Dec '14 can match Nov-Dec '13 for Xbox One.

As I like to point out, since January the Xbox One has been trailing 360 launch aligned.

I wonder how the numbers would look if the 360 wasn't supply constrained at launch.

That graph between 360 and One sales in the US being thrown around GAF is moot in my opinion as it's comparing 2 consoles that had completely different launches, one supply constrained, and the other not.

whoa I wanna know what kind of voodoo magic Microsoft has to pull that off

Oh.