Good god, every time I come back, there's a few more pages.
Serious discussion, though: I don't know whether Microsoft will or won't do this, but I'm having a difficult time understand why they would do it.
The only two reasons I can think of to require a console to be always online are 1) to fight piracy, and 2) to stop used game sales. As far as I know, piracy hasn't been much of a problem for the 360, so I assume they wouldn't require a system to be online for that. Which leaves used games. Theoretically, used games hurt both the people making the games and the console manufacturer (I don't necessarily agree - hence "theoretically"), so the reasoning would be that stopping used sales would earn Microsoft more money and would keep publishers happier, and they'd be more likely to do more exclusives for Microsoft.
The problem, though, is that publishers go where the largest audience is - look at the Vita and WiiU. By requiring an online connection, Microsoft would be immediately excluding a significant portion of the population from buying the system. Maybe they wouldn't have bought one anyway, but now you're ensuring they won't. Also, you're excluding people who won't buy the console on principle, which may or may not be a significant portion of the population. Lastly, if your console doesn't allow used games and Sony's does, that will definitely be a selling point for Sony, and while Sony probably wouldn't brag about it out of fear of angering publishers, the word would get out in social media, so people that purchase a lot of used games would be excluded. Also GameStop would probably advertise the hell out of the PS4 and not the Durango.
So, I come back to my original question: why would Microsoft do it? Are they really willing to gamble on publishers backing them exclusively and on people feeling loyalty to Xbox as a gaming platform?