Gonna end up thinking this post was stupid, but gonna get it off my chest right now
He says his biggest fear is again concerning the doctor not knowing who to protect and that peeking will somehow muddy this water. First, it's not a sure thing we have a doctor (50% less likely than a cop). Secondly, He then paints a scenario where only 4 people peek and is worried that this will lead to the cop being more likely to die/made useless. However, that same situation also increases the chance of a doctor guessing the same as scum. A successful doctor protect with out a hard claim is very rare any how, but his two protest seem to run kind of counter current to me here. If you consider the implications of this 4 peek hypothetical you might also realize the additional benefits of setting up peeks by the by.
Hadn't realized everyone was supposed to peek, as you had asked for ordinaries to do it earlier.
Not a lie
Ends with a one liner that we most likely only have a one shot cop, which has since been addressed in the addendums to the peeking plan.
Yet you still seem to want to throw shade by mentioning this, even though you noted yourself that this was an addendum
One shot was addressed later, no reason to call this into question
Shows him warming up to the idea after having it clarified again. Name calling the SK here jumps out to me a bit here (only a 50% probability versus the ~70ish% of scum role blocker). I take issue with the last sentence as it's just a fact that everyone peeking increases the odds of hiding the cop as well as any other method while providing more concrete data. (Scum has a good idea that if anyone lists scum as a top town they probably aren't cop unless they see another breadcrumb hidden throughout the day, much like an incorrect peek).
Simple, I didn't understand that everyone in this scenario is supposed to peek, otherwise I wouldn't have even brought up a 4 players peeking scenario earlier
Still true. Didn't realize it at the time. Brought up SK because I hadn't looked into the chances of a roleblocker at that point. 50% still seemed pretty high tbh.
He brings up cop immediately claiming when finding town which I agree with. It is notable for being different from what he calls optimal cop start in an earlier post, but I believe this is in a scenario where everyone is peeking in which case his perceived optimal start is different.
Brings up a valid concern on how to give legitimacy to a 1 shot cops check on day 2. Which I like.
Actually read back the context of the thread and that had already been addressed by Ty. So I don't really give him much credit for this.
But continues to throw shade on peeking by decrying its value in the late game.
Which I don't like. As I feel in the late game if the cop is still alive then great peeking didn't need to come into play. Typically by the time peeking is no longer viable the cop can safely come forward and should do so to provide a cleared town list (minus god father or investigative immune SK)
I brought up my issues with the 1-shot cop claim later and then realized why it worked, that's just another case of me suddenly understanding something.
Throwing shade is not saying "of course that will happen" with regards to the cop getting found near the late game. "Of course that will happen" is sort of meant to tell everyone, HEY, cop will get found near the end anyways
Still initially disregarded ty4ons post, then understood later and posted as I was figuring it out. Sue me for typing as I think, it's easier to understand things that way
And yeah, throwing shade isn't saying of course cop will be found late game. I was saying that yeah, sure peeking isn't gonna work late game, that's not really an issue
And throwing shade on a plan isn't really much of an issue
Defends me from a vote. Says that he thinks peeking is beneficial to town (which seems a bit different from his most recent post where he says he thinks he is coming around to it and in fact he will go back and forth a few more times still I believe).
Notes that active people aren't necessarily scum. Just look at these two examples where he took an aggressive stance....and wait a minute both of those were anti town roles.
I read this as a sly post that both defends me, champions peeking, and also throws some subliminal shade at me by linking my behavior and activity with his as two non town roles. That association will remain in people's minds regardless of his defense of me up above.
A. I brought up the two examples of myself because they come to mind pretty quickly. If it helps soothe your worries over everyone suddenly thinking you're scum, I was trying to play for town's benefit in Bar, and actively trying to keep town engaged.
B. Am I supposed to just assume you're town now, and that the reason you've been acting this way is because you are only working for town's benefit? Players trying to control the conversation as scum is NOTHING new.
C. My slam on Terra for that post was because although the question of you being scum or not is there, and it brings up a WIFOM possibility, he has, or had not shown, any real evidence to give reason why he thinks you would be scum. So yes, you may very well be scum, he just doesn't have the proof to act on it. Same thing with me in HP and Bar.
In fact, say for example at Bar, the main reason I actually thought Gorlak was full of shit (even knowing he was right about me not being town) is because his reason was asinine, and everything beyond that was "I
FEEL his reactions are scummy", even though at that point he probably would've taken any reaction of mine to be scummy
Same in HP. I leave, making a split second decision where there was something really wrong in Crab's claim and bus him, and come back to see myself lynched over a reason that really didn't make alot of sense.
So yeah, shoot me if I think you think I should just assume you're town. If you've been attempting to control the conversation as scum, you've done a pretty great job so far
Started that post about to full on slam terra for a vote that couldn't mean much, gave those examples because they come to mind quickly, and how should I know of you aren't the SK? Or scum? Halfway through post, I decided that his concern is legitimate, because it happens, but there isn't anything to gain from it day 1
This posts doesn't sit right worth me. Trying to organize something like this would inherently mess it up even more wrt his concerns in accidently outing the cop or screwing up when the 1 shot cop was used. Organizing details usually only helps scum and is something scum does in their little scum chat. Town plans should be generally outlined with specifics left unsaid so that scum can't disrupt them effectively.
Again, was confused to how things would work. The idea of organizing it all was brought up as an absurd possibility to counter it, meant to weaken the idea, not be taken seriously.
Was still confused about 1-shots, organizing it was my answer at that point, and I brought it up to highlight how tidiculous it is (why organize it?!)
Also, the last line is the start of these posts where hyper writes in his flip flopping mid posts. These read like a superficial attempt at showing a conflicted townie/transparency into his thought process. I don't buy it and think it's him further refusing to take a hard stance so he can back out of peeking if it seems enough of town will go that way.
Yeah, this is bullshit. Tried to find the easiest to read example.
http://outergafia.com/thread/18/mgs-mafia-name-means-battlefield?filters[]=post_created_by%3Aeq%3A8&page=3
That's MGS MAfia. I was town. Want to read through the posts (pages 3 and 4 will probably help the most), look for that same sort of "I'm putting my entire thought process into the thread sort of style?
And I've done this as scum too. And as a neutral. And every game I've been reasonably active.
I don't even know how you fake a style. Is your idea that I don't actually believe what I'm saying, that I'm secretly exaggerating my wish-washiness?
Still bs. Still something I do in every game I'm in. Still was my actual thought process at that point. And it's still REALLY REALLY hard to fake a style that isn't coming naturally to you
"That's the beauty of it"
"Well except for maybe this one thing...."
"J/K guys I know in two post before this I said it was pro town and started with that idea here, but I just think the chance of people screwing up with peeks is just too high"
"I'm not sure, is anyone else not sure? Can i manage to back out of this peeking thing without looking scummy? Please, anyone?"
Wow, it's almost like people's feeling and thoughts change, and like I suddenly thought up something, sat on it for a bit, and decided I wasn't so sure
Starting post off thinking peeking is a good idea. While trying to explain why, I come yo with a scenario and want to say how peeking helps. Then I sit, think, and decide, wait, peeking isn't helpful, it's sorta detrimental in that way
Is there anything else peeking is crappy at? Hmm, I guess this too.
Same way I became pro-peeking in the first place. I was about to respond to a post, then thought about what I was typing, and it didn't really make sense, because that situation was already addressed. Don't delete all of what I was saying, because showing my thought process shows how I got to a conclusion, so it doesn't appear sudden, and might help others thinking through things
But because peeking is such a good plan, anyone that changes from understanding it can't be thinking straight.
And yeah, waiting for another player because that's how I was originally convinced, maybe if I wait my cornerback would be addressed
Is back to arguing that he thinks bread crumbs are most effective. Except wait for the next post...
Database, database trapped inside the database...
So says as scum he usually misses breadcrumbs so what can the harm possibly be.
And wait also admits that typically it requires more than just breadcrumbs for cops to be believed/their reads to be pieced together.
So kind of seems to be arguing against himself here with respect to bread crumbs being optimal play.
Yeah, that's exactly what I did, and was doing. No sarcasm there btw. Most GAFIA cops typically survive until reveal, until they get to the late game. I was trying to think of example of cops breadcrumbing, didn't see too many.
I think saying "so what can the harm possibly be" is exaggerating what was intended in that statement. I was saying that I don't think the threat of scum catching onto breadcrumbs is as high as you think, based on total anecdotal evidence. I never meant to use it as some sort of definitive proof that breadcrumbing works, otherwise I wouldn't go on to weaken my point.
Start post off arguing one way, decide halfway through that some of my arguments don't work too well, so I address it. it's not scummy to contradict in that way, it would be scummy for me to realize a hole in my argument and go quiet about it
And sue me for again for using the most immediately available example (myself) to get my point across.
Last post as of now, back to throwing shade on both peeking "IF we decide to not go through with it (please town help me not appear scummy)" and on me personally. Insinuates that I would move forward with a suboptimal strategy out of spite. No dice compadre.
The inconsistency in logic and arguments here as well as the continual foot dragging against what I think is a pro town strategy is enough for me.
Sorry Lord Kawl for not immediately agreeing to your strategy because I'm fairly certain one of scum or the SK (if we have one notice I said if this time, not discounting the 50% chance that we don't and also somewhat underestimating the chance that we do) have probably done a good job disguising themselves as people's top town based on previous experiences and because the whole point of the plan is to keep cops safe and we might just be helping scum in that way. Sorry for not immediately taking a side, and instead waiting for the chance someone comes by and brings up something that changes my mind towards being pro-peeking, even though that's exactly how I became pro-peeking the first time. Your plan is flawless, all that disagree are scum.
Yet somehow I would want to move forward with a suboptimal strategy out of spite. And also set myself against town's prevailing opinion for no actual reason. Still not lying here.
Yeah, this vote was all about peeking
Don't like what I see.
Vote: Hyperactivity
Ok.
So Kawl, quick question, if this is such standard fare from other communities, why is it ever not used? Or is it literally in every single game of mafia in every community, and its been unanimously decided to go through with peeking at all times?
And no answer was ever received
Silence isn't really alarming
And you barely added anything, just sorta tagged along onto whatever Kawl said
Yup, I posted some, stayed up doing stuff, slept in till 1:00, and then got to the thread, because I wasn't really feeling like mafia before and approaching deadlines tend to motivate me.
???
Mind actually backing what you say up? How am I "style over substance"? Any posts to back it up?
Still no clue what this means.
Yeah, no. For one, there wasn't much to talk about early game, of course we're going to discuss the idea Kawl brought up. And afterwards I was gone
What Ty4on said here is correct. You actually saying something, or is this just some bs "gut read" you'll never act on
This was a reply to melon, tried to separate us more here lol, but again, still said what I meant. There wasn't much to talk about, and Kawl brought something up that had my attention at that point, because that was the topic at hand.
It's like playing Love Boat and complaining that people are discussing Kawl and Blarg's miller tracker claim in the first few hours. It's what has people's attention at that point. That's what's gonna happen. When people haven't posted bullshit to get called on, you won't see that much bullshit calling.
How is it a whole lot of nothing?
The first one was me working through why I thought my understanding of the peek plan would fail, and me working through the situation
For the second one, there is the whole rest of the post, you know.
Except it's not speculation. If I just went in and said "so we have a 75%+ chance of having a roleblocker, what do you guys think?", THAT'S useless role speculation.
I instead showed why I thought that was significant: when you take in that very likely scenario, Kawl's plan as I thought of it was really faulty. We were discussing kawl's plan, and his plan as I understood it had a 75%+ chance of being crap
Speaking of roleblockers, Kawl, how does your peek system account for the night where the cop is blocked?
Still not useless role speculation to look at likely scenarios and try and decide if a plan relating to our cop and everyone is worth doing.
Responses to everything but the last in the quote. Sorry would take forever to label and make it clear what was responding to what otherwise. Mobile ftl.
For the last part, peekings use I feel is maximized when the set up skews basic and a cop is likely. Unlike matrix games scum doesn't have too much additional knowledge on town power roles over vanilla towns, so I think peeking is better in this set up than a standard one. I can't speak for other communities but I know seeing the idea it carries a lot of logic I like and I wanted to take this game as an example to push it on to the gafia meta hard.
Didn't even see this post, the replies in bold to what I said made it such that I never actually got to see this
Right, and that was an evolution over the course of the discussion so I don't hold that against you at all.
Actually at this point I was just going pretty much line by line over your posts but decided to abandon that approach as it would have taken far too long.
My issue is that your earlier complaint about making the doctors job harder doesn't make sense, and is in fact pretty much incorrect in this other 4 player peek scenario. It increases the chance of a successful block not lowers. That inconsistent internal logic is what bothered me.
Already had mentioned I didn't understand the scenario
And logical errors in that way don't mean crap. It means you screwed up when thinking through something. Why would scum want to have "inconsistent internal logic"?
The answer to the one shot cop issue had already been brought up though.
I also don't recall you phrasing it that way but more of a late game peeking becomes problematic but it's a bit of a pain for me to see the quote of you inside my quote so eh. Mobile sucks.
I read over the answer, was preparing a rebuttal to show why it didn't work, then looked at the post again, thought over my argument again, and decided what I was going to say doesn't make much sense.
Typing things out helps me work through it, so yeah, I basically typed the same thing, I don't think I ever really took credit for Ty4on's post.
Although again, I guess you have to have the same reaction to a what a post says, can't initially dismiss it but then go back and be all "OOOOOOHHHHH"
Nah I don't think you should assume I'm town. In fact I've said I'm trying to strongly not town read people without justification. At this point in the ISO I already hadn't liked what I saw and so was looking at this from the perspective of scum hyper. But I mean this whole spiel is something though.
Because it's easy to fake rant. And that whole point was because you were complaining that I compared you to scum and neutral incarnations of myself, when the way that post had been phrased was "You don't have any solid reason to think Kawl is scum, he's probably town, although I guess I did try to do this in X and Y, so I guess I can see it"
Yeah, again, try putting a fake thought process. It isn't too easy.
The amount of times you went back and forth seemed abnormal to me. It's what jumped out in just 13 posts.
Guess ignoring me doing it a bunch before helped here
Or you did that to set up this move to show that you had never planned to set up.... Yea I guess if that's your style of doing thought vomit onto the page and going back and forth it makes more sense. The lack of internal consistency in some instances still
feels like scum forgetting the case they are arguing to me though.
"I guess you do that thought vomit thing, and you do go back and forth, but no, I got a "FEEL" about this". 0 way to prove it though
This is cute though. I said I'd find it scummy if they didn't have a good argument for why it was bad. Your argument had failed to even convince yourself several times so it surely wasn't strong enough for me.
Insinuates that I would move forward with a suboptimal strategy out of spite. No dice compadre
as well as the continual foot dragging against what I think is a pro town strategy is enough for me.
My argument, at that point, consisted of me bringing up issues in the peeking idea, but seeing some issues in the alternative, so just be iffy on the whole thing.
And, oh hey, so much for lack of internal consistency, I guess I was being truthful about being doubtful about my own arguments and iffy on them, but definitely not about everything else. Talk about lack of internal consistency.
I n fact, you just explained why my stance at that point was the why it is. Congrats. I wasn't anti-peek because I couldn't come up with a strong enough argument for its alternative at the time, and I wasn't pro-peek because there was a bunch of dumb stuff about it (and I knew that, as scum, I sorta wanted it). So I was waiting to see if anyone would come in and explain stuff so I would get it.
Sorry for lying about that.
One thing to note is that by bringing up peeking, Kawl has found himself a really convenient place to focus on discussing the mechanics of his plan, and easily cast reads based on whether people are fine or not fine with it.
It's an easy place to be if you're the scum or SK for day 1
Again, not bs'ing about this.
Dude gave himself the privelige of discussing, defending, and attacking all around the peek system for day 1
Thatd be pretty miserable bad luck, but is a fair criticism. Would depend on how the real cop wanted to play it. Throw out a fake peek on your top town to try to throw scum off your case, depending on the day come forward, or some other action.
So much for peeking issues holding no water
Damn, sorry for using the main topic of the day to form my reads. You got me.
.
Whoopsie daisy, didn't know we were allowed to mainly discuss mechanics again
I can't seem to get that to work.... and I have to ask, what relevance does MGS have to this game?
I'm interested in hearing your arguments, not your "style" or alignment in another game entirely. I understand that the statement that Kawl brought up is hard to refute, but surely there's something in this game you can use instead...?
Kawl said I was faking a transparent, hmm I'm putting my thought process into words in the thread, I'm going for an artificial indecisive look
I pointed out I've done that in every single game I've been in, regardless of alignment. MGS was useful because it's easy to find my posts all lined up next to each other, and that's an example of me doing it while I'm town. Had Cthulhu or Harry Potter been on OG, I would've chosen those examples
It doesn't really say I'm town, but trying to use it and say I'm scum is bs
If the initial argument is bs, and something that is impossible to know, then I'm allowed to use the only proof I have (other games where I can point to his argument being bs)
Saying "I'm town, I know that, you'll have to trust I'm not doing this" would be a terrible argument