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Mini Mafia III |OT| An Amazing Alien Abduction Adventure
- Thread starter YesNOnoNOYes
- Start date
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
A voice croaks softly from the lump of flesh from yesterday:
Lone_Prodigy said:
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Okay, some consideration of the night kills.
Firstly, we clearly had MMM****. Possible scum distributions are:
(3.9% chance) TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
(19.5% chance) TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
(36.5%% chance) TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
(30.4% chance) T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer
(9.5% chance) no T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
Two definite conclusions: there are three scum, not two, and one is a roleblocker.
Secondly, we had two night kills. That means we have either a serial killer, or a vigilante, or both. Both could be MMMVTTT, for example, with the roleblocker hitting either the vig or serial killer. However, for the time being, I think it's relatively unlikely there were both, as that requires a successful prevention - I highlight it only for town doctors or roleblockers to give full consideration, as they are better placed to know.
If we have only one, which is it more likely we have? Well, I think Ourobolus is the more likely target for the mafia kill, by a large margin. He contributed almost no material in the first day, but has a reputation for being a good player. This means that he's dangerous - an unknown quantity with the potential to do a lot of damage. Additionally, the fact that he didn't generate any material in and of himself means that killing him doesn't really give us any additional information. We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone. There were early pushes on Haly and Kawl which didn't go further, and a latter push on Time and then Lone_Prodigy. We know that Ouro was wrong on Lone_Prodigy anyway, and I don't think the first two are really enough for us to look at. So Ouro's death doesn't give us any associations except possibly Time.
By contrast, batsnacks is less likely to be the mafia target. He's a known quantity. batsnacks was only on myself, Gorlak, and Lone_Prodigy. You all know he was wrong on Lone_Prodigy, and I obviously know he was wrong on me. No associations there except for Gorlak. For the time being, I townread Gorlak relatively strongly, so I can't see anyone with motive to make that kill. Additionally, batsnacks spent most of his time focusing on the same small group of players and generated a lot of material. That's the mark of a player relatively easy to slide by.
The above in itself I think gives a final clue, which is: mafia are relatively competent. I think a weaker mafia would have gone for CCS, or failing that someone like CzarTim or myself, aiming to get rid of the Innocent Child or town players with a reasonable track record.
So the question is: would a vig or an SK be more likely to go after batsnacks? Well, suppose there was a vigilante. They're almost certainly not going to kill someone at random - they'll have players they suspect, and have done for a while. If this is the case, they'd probably have tried getting them lynched on D1 - vigs often get tracked down by mafia this way, matching night kills to FoSes. So who was pushing on batsnacks? Well, nobody, really. Gorlak to an extent, and Timeaisis, neither of which pursued that option very vigilantly. So I think this is an SK kill.
So, my thoughts are that this is an SK setup, and we are in MMMTTT* or MMMT***, with the latter much more likely. I don't think we have many if any town PRs left, which is a big problem with so many killing roles around.
Final thought: mason. I don't think batsnack's partner should come forward yet, given that I suspect we do not have many PRs. There are not enough to keep two innos safe when they make tempting kills. However, I do think they need to pay very careful attention to LYLO. If they claim on LYLO, someone will *definitely* counter-claim, and so we go to 50/50 Thunderdome style shenanigans. But if the missing mason claims the day before LYLO, even if there is a counter-claim, and we lynch incorrectly, we go into LYLO with confirmed scum. So the missing mason needs to pay very careful attention to the number of players remaining and whether next day could be in LYLO or not, and always claim the day before LYLO (which is probably tomorrow, but hey we could hit the SK today).
That's my night analysis, in light of that I'll go back to yesterday's end-of-day result but that might have to wait til tomorrow.
Firstly, we clearly had MMM****. Possible scum distributions are:
(3.9% chance) TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
(19.5% chance) TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
(36.5%% chance) TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
(30.4% chance) T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer
(9.5% chance) no T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
Two definite conclusions: there are three scum, not two, and one is a roleblocker.
Secondly, we had two night kills. That means we have either a serial killer, or a vigilante, or both. Both could be MMMVTTT, for example, with the roleblocker hitting either the vig or serial killer. However, for the time being, I think it's relatively unlikely there were both, as that requires a successful prevention - I highlight it only for town doctors or roleblockers to give full consideration, as they are better placed to know.
If we have only one, which is it more likely we have? Well, I think Ourobolus is the more likely target for the mafia kill, by a large margin. He contributed almost no material in the first day, but has a reputation for being a good player. This means that he's dangerous - an unknown quantity with the potential to do a lot of damage. Additionally, the fact that he didn't generate any material in and of himself means that killing him doesn't really give us any additional information. We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone. There were early pushes on Haly and Kawl which didn't go further, and a latter push on Time and then Lone_Prodigy. We know that Ouro was wrong on Lone_Prodigy anyway, and I don't think the first two are really enough for us to look at. So Ouro's death doesn't give us any associations except possibly Time.
By contrast, batsnacks is less likely to be the mafia target. He's a known quantity. batsnacks was only on myself, Gorlak, and Lone_Prodigy. You all know he was wrong on Lone_Prodigy, and I obviously know he was wrong on me. No associations there except for Gorlak. For the time being, I townread Gorlak relatively strongly, so I can't see anyone with motive to make that kill. Additionally, batsnacks spent most of his time focusing on the same small group of players and generated a lot of material. That's the mark of a player relatively easy to slide by.
The above in itself I think gives a final clue, which is: mafia are relatively competent. I think a weaker mafia would have gone for CCS, or failing that someone like CzarTim or myself, aiming to get rid of the Innocent Child or town players with a reasonable track record.
So the question is: would a vig or an SK be more likely to go after batsnacks? Well, suppose there was a vigilante. They're almost certainly not going to kill someone at random - they'll have players they suspect, and have done for a while. If this is the case, they'd probably have tried getting them lynched on D1 - vigs often get tracked down by mafia this way, matching night kills to FoSes. So who was pushing on batsnacks? Well, nobody, really. Gorlak to an extent, and Timeaisis, neither of which pursued that option very vigilantly. So I think this is an SK kill.
So, my thoughts are that this is an SK setup, and we are in MMMTTT* or MMMT***, with the latter much more likely. I don't think we have many if any town PRs left, which is a big problem with so many killing roles around.
Final thought: mason. I don't think batsnack's partner should come forward yet, given that I suspect we do not have many PRs. There are not enough to keep two innos safe when they make tempting kills. However, I do think they need to pay very careful attention to LYLO. If they claim on LYLO, someone will *definitely* counter-claim, and so we go to 50/50 Thunderdome style shenanigans. But if the missing mason claims the day before LYLO, even if there is a counter-claim, and we lynch incorrectly, we go into LYLO with confirmed scum. So the missing mason needs to pay very careful attention to the number of players remaining and whether next day could be in LYLO or not, and always claim the day before LYLO (which is probably tomorrow, but hey we could hit the SK today).
That's my night analysis, in light of that I'll go back to yesterday's end-of-day result but that might have to wait til tomorrow.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's true, apologies. Doesn't change the maths much as the odds were so low, though. I'm pretty confident we're in either
(19.5% chance) TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
or
(30.4% chance) T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer
hmm.
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
The other case is, Crab is genuinely town. Led a wagon for LP because he was scummy D1. One or two mafia jump ship to LP to make it look like they're paying attention. The rest sit nice and tight on Ouro. They know they're not at risk so they do whatever.
But that just puts us back at square one second guessing ourselves on everyone and kyan your play is still scummy as heck fam.
But that just puts us back at square one second guessing ourselves on everyone and kyan your play is still scummy as heck fam.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Haly, what do you think about Time given how the day ended?
That question can also be answered by CCS, but Haly first plx.
That question can also be answered by CCS, but Haly first plx.
I was raiding in World of Cat Girls when it was Ouro/Time so I have to recheck.
Page 11
- Four way tie
- Ouro starts collecting votes from squid and haly
- Kawl votes Time
Page 12
- Leaders are Ouro and Time
- CCS starts the Crab train, Kawl switches to Crab, Ouro switches to Crab
- CCS flops to Ouro (if CCS wasn't already innocent child I'd have read this as a scum maneuver)
- Crab starts LP train, Ouro joins, Melon joins, Kawl joins, Tim joins, Kyan joins
Page 13
- LP countervotes Ouro to save himself
- Gorlak votes Ouro
- Batsnacks flubs
So by page 11 Time already checked out:
There were no posts or votes or thoughts between these two. He left his vote on Ouro and went AFK.
Yeah I can see it. This definitely reads letthemfight.gif from scum Time, although there's nothing there to tie him to anyone. If you, Crab, die today and flip Town I'll want to lynch Time.
Page 11
- Four way tie
- Ouro starts collecting votes from squid and haly
- Kawl votes Time
Page 12
- Leaders are Ouro and Time
- CCS starts the Crab train, Kawl switches to Crab, Ouro switches to Crab
- CCS flops to Ouro (if CCS wasn't already innocent child I'd have read this as a scum maneuver)
- Crab starts LP train, Ouro joins, Melon joins, Kawl joins, Tim joins, Kyan joins
Page 13
- LP countervotes Ouro to save himself
- Gorlak votes Ouro
- Batsnacks flubs
So by page 11 Time already checked out:
There were no posts or votes or thoughts between these two. He left his vote on Ouro and went AFK.
Yeah I can see it. This definitely reads letthemfight.gif from scum Time, although there's nothing there to tie him to anyone. If you, Crab, die today and flip Town I'll want to lynch Time.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
I'm o mobile but I have a larger post prepared focusing on bats on desktop, which is kind of obsolete now, will post it anyway (once I get home in 16 hours)
Regarding yesterday. Squid not answering me yesterday is setting off an alarm. Crab creating end day lynches (push for ouro and change to lp) is notable. Melons reasoning against lp feels wrong today even more.
Time and haly felt like easy followers without an opinion of their own.
Kawls reasoning against crab was very weak, I'm suspicious of him.
I have to reread again. Dont know how Czar acted.
Who am I missing? Kyan and ? Oh css...
____
So mostly suspicious of crab. Quick look at the votes tells me czar was on both lp and ouro and varied his vote often.
Haly and timeaisis get the being passive award from memory, but I have to reread.
Not feeling good about anyone :/
Will be back later today. First sleep then work see you at evening cet.
Regarding yesterday. Squid not answering me yesterday is setting off an alarm. Crab creating end day lynches (push for ouro and change to lp) is notable. Melons reasoning against lp feels wrong today even more.
Time and haly felt like easy followers without an opinion of their own.
Kawls reasoning against crab was very weak, I'm suspicious of him.
I have to reread again. Dont know how Czar acted.
Who am I missing? Kyan and ? Oh css...
____
So mostly suspicious of crab. Quick look at the votes tells me czar was on both lp and ouro and varied his vote often.
Haly and timeaisis get the being passive award from memory, but I have to reread.
Not feeling good about anyone :/
Will be back later today. First sleep then work see you at evening cet.
melonrabbit
Member
At work, busy day scheduled will post at after.
Alright, finally getting around to posting some thoughts on the events of yesterday and the (non) events of today.
Firstly, Crab.
Crab was obviously absent for a large part of the game last day phase, but then came back in full force, posting reads and really driving an Ouro lynch. Hell, he reasoned it so well I voted ouro and never looked back. I still believe that reasoning was sound, and it was a good lynch. However, somewhere around the day end there was a multiple-way tie forming between me, ouro, and Crab. It reached a breaking point when crab got 3 votes to ouro's 5. He saw a wagon forming, and he needed to do something. Ouro said he'd change his vote to LP (and take it off crab), and crab replies
And just like that, Crab switches over to LP and we have a magnificently quick wagon to LP's death.
Interesting how Crab was extremely adamant about an Ouro lynch, only to "fuck it" and go LP without a passing thought. Especially with posts like this just an hour earlier...
The late day crab manuevers were weird, to say the least. What was his game? Trying to divert a possible wagon from him to LP? Maybe he felt all the votes ouro was going to get had happened, and more votes for himself were possible so he needed a scapegoat. Feels very scummy to me.
Needless to say, I think crab is our #1 candidate for today. If anything, a crab flip will shine some more light on the day end from yesterday. So yeah.
Vote: Crab
The last thought I have is on the ouro death. I'm going to assume bats was the scum kill. He stirs up trouble for either side, he has a predictably unpredictable playstyle, and he's a solid n1 kill for mafia. Ouro, on the other hand, is troublesome but only to a few people (myself being one of them). But a good portion of heat was on him yesterday. Mafia might have felt that an ouro lynch was inevitable enough to not waste a night kill on him, unless the situation was dire and they needed ouro eliminated quick.
It's interesting that LP and Ouro were tied up yesterday, ouro won the coin flip, but ouro died anyway. Kind of leads me to believe we have a vig on our hands that was trying to save the town from lynching ouro d2 and who was on the side of ouro being scum.
Firstly, Crab.
Crab was obviously absent for a large part of the game last day phase, but then came back in full force, posting reads and really driving an Ouro lynch. Hell, he reasoned it so well I voted ouro and never looked back. I still believe that reasoning was sound, and it was a good lynch. However, somewhere around the day end there was a multiple-way tie forming between me, ouro, and Crab. It reached a breaking point when crab got 3 votes to ouro's 5. He saw a wagon forming, and he needed to do something. Ouro said he'd change his vote to LP (and take it off crab), and crab replies
And just like that, Crab switches over to LP and we have a magnificently quick wagon to LP's death.
Interesting how Crab was extremely adamant about an Ouro lynch, only to "fuck it" and go LP without a passing thought. Especially with posts like this just an hour earlier...
The late day crab manuevers were weird, to say the least. What was his game? Trying to divert a possible wagon from him to LP? Maybe he felt all the votes ouro was going to get had happened, and more votes for himself were possible so he needed a scapegoat. Feels very scummy to me.
Needless to say, I think crab is our #1 candidate for today. If anything, a crab flip will shine some more light on the day end from yesterday. So yeah.
Vote: Crab
The last thought I have is on the ouro death. I'm going to assume bats was the scum kill. He stirs up trouble for either side, he has a predictably unpredictable playstyle, and he's a solid n1 kill for mafia. Ouro, on the other hand, is troublesome but only to a few people (myself being one of them). But a good portion of heat was on him yesterday. Mafia might have felt that an ouro lynch was inevitable enough to not waste a night kill on him, unless the situation was dire and they needed ouro eliminated quick.
It's interesting that LP and Ouro were tied up yesterday, ouro won the coin flip, but ouro died anyway. Kind of leads me to believe we have a vig on our hands that was trying to save the town from lynching ouro d2 and who was on the side of ouro being scum.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Can't post properly as at work but I am one vote from hammer at this point, so can at least one person unvote until I get back?
? He was one of the main vote targets yesterday?
I'm wondering if scum!time has a pr and scum!crab tried to swing the vote to oreo. When it backfired he switched to lp.
Yet when he could've been voted out, the votes did not show up. Now the light is again being shone at him but the votes are landing on Crab. I guess I am looking at where people want to go after Crab or whomever.
My initial gut read of time was that he was town, but after he felt the need to defend lp twice that changed to a slight scum read. However I did not think he was w/w with lp and I was operating under the assumption lp was scum yesterday.
I'm extremely tired and lack energy right now. I only have a few minutes. The state of the game is depressing me, and unfortunately I can't invest the time I'd like to.
Will come back tomorrow morning and hopefully turn things on. For now I want everyone to post their top scum read and give a reason.
Personally I'll look into Crab and give my view tomorrow. I've not have had the time to read crab's longer post or all arguments. As mentioned earlier his lynch pushes were noted. Out of my memory he randomly switched to LP, which was indeed odd. Someone called it out (kawl?) back then.
Aside from him Squidyj raised the bar and is the next one I want to take a look at. Given that he was here and did nothing besides posting "hhhmmm".
Squidyj you're lacking any substantial input. You never explained your various reads on "certain" people in a more detailed way. What made you think about Kawl for example? What do you think of Kyan today? And please outline why you vote crab.
---
anyone interested in my post about bats?
Now as I said I wrote this at night, because my strongest suspicion lied with him and nobody seemed to see anything wrong with him.
I was wrong. Think of it what you will.
---
Please everyone, especially CCS, invest more into this game. We've barely reached 50 posts.
No one took a look who the dead had in their read lists. I think it's at least worth reading and keeping in mind no matter how much wifom there may be in it.
And bats obviously was seeing scum in me.
---
The matter at hand is crab though. Has everyone chimed in and gave their opinion? Will do first thing next morning.
Please be more active everyone.
Will come back tomorrow morning and hopefully turn things on. For now I want everyone to post their top scum read and give a reason.
Personally I'll look into Crab and give my view tomorrow. I've not have had the time to read crab's longer post or all arguments. As mentioned earlier his lynch pushes were noted. Out of my memory he randomly switched to LP, which was indeed odd. Someone called it out (kawl?) back then.
Aside from him Squidyj raised the bar and is the next one I want to take a look at. Given that he was here and did nothing besides posting "hhhmmm".
Squidyj you're lacking any substantial input. You never explained your various reads on "certain" people in a more detailed way. What made you think about Kawl for example? What do you think of Kyan today? And please outline why you vote crab.
---
anyone interested in my post about bats?
Now as I said I wrote this at night, because my strongest suspicion lied with him and nobody seemed to see anything wrong with him.
I was wrong. Think of it what you will.
---
Please everyone, especially CCS, invest more into this game. We've barely reached 50 posts.
No one took a look who the dead had in their read lists. I think it's at least worth reading and keeping in mind no matter how much wifom there may be in it.
And bats obviously was seeing scum in me.
---
The matter at hand is crab though. Has everyone chimed in and gave their opinion? Will do first thing next morning.
Please be more active everyone.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Genuine apologies, I'm not actually sure I'm going to be able to make any serious post tonight. Tomorrow morning, I promise - it is a Saturday after all. For the time being, I suggest talking about other stuff; you'll need to have considered alternative events if for whatever reason my case is especially compelling.
Crab put the spotlight on Time. It was a valid concern as Time was also scumread by many people on D1 but slipped beyond our notice once the Crab train started. Either way, it's the best place to look right now.
I'm also interested in you, melon, and gorlak for the record.
melonrabbit
Member
Kyan is the cop??
lol
lol
melonrabbit
Member
He doesn't really have any heat on him. Weird for him to run this gambit now.
melonrabbit
Member
Also Ouro "awful" gambit bagged two scum. So I'm not sure why you'd phrased that as a bad thing.
Why did you choose Haly?
melonrabbit
Member
Did Ouro mention Haly too? or was that Karl? I know I was somewhat suspecious of Haly but don't recall him discussed much.
It was a 1 in a million shot. The fact that it succeeded doesn't mean it was a good gambit, it was a bad gambit that just happened to work out that time.
Like if you win the lotto with a given set of numbers it doesn't follow that those numbers are special.