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Mini Mafia III |OT| An Amazing Alien Abduction Adventure
- Thread starter YesNOnoNOYes
- Start date
This is a great point that the majority of gafia just ignores lol. You can make the right decision and it have a bad outcome and vice versa. Evaluating decisions in hindsight based on the ultimate outcome versus what was best play at the the time with the information present is just poor analysis.
Was going to say I'm not sure if I could see haly crab as w/w, but these posts read like scum distancing themselves from a teammate while excusing not voting.
1. I was not able to get a good read on Haly on day one.
2. I was not familiar with Haly's play style, what made me worry that 1. would continue.
3. Haly had some posts defending LP in a way that I felt looked like scum distancing themselves from a town lynch.
4. I felt that the LP lynch was the "better" lynch on day one and gave a bit of a priority on the ones on Ouro lynch when picking a target.
5. I tried to think about who would survive the night and Haly did not make it into my personal top night lynch candidates.
melonrabbit
Member
I don't think we will agree on what to categorize it. Regardless I don't think it's very relevant to Kyan's claim. So I'm a bit surprised you bring that out of the blue. Wouldnt ynny's gambit in mini1 be a better fit?
Also, I don't remember it being entirely baseless. Ouro went after someone a lot of doubt and suspicion on them prior day.
oh yeah, and there was him sheeping me twice
I didn't read mini1.
melonrabbit
Member
Don't let ynny find that out.
Also, I rather believe Kyan. I find myself sorta trusting Kyan and having to 100% trust CCS. This game is gives me a headache.
Also, assuming that C claim is true:
We are confirmed to be in a 3M set up.
1 C would fit into a legit set up.
2 C would require another power role, equally likely to be a D or a V, but 2CV3M give a sk meaning vig had to not use shot or in a 0T game. So 2CD3M is probably likely if its 2C.
1C is roughly twice as likely as 2C though (59.3% vs 31.4%).
If its 1C, no additional power roles is slightly more likely than having additional roles (3T is 54.7%, 2T is 32.8, 1T is 10.9, 0T is just 1.5%)
I do feel its better if you don't confirm one way or the other on whether you are a 1 C or 2C kyan, allow scum to enjoy a bit of wifom in case there is another power role out there.
I believe kyan at the moment. Worst case scenario for town is we are dealing with 3 scum (confirmed) and SK. So 4 baddies. We have 10 people left after the 2 NKs and a mislynch. We lynch Haly, he flips town, we sit at 9 total, 5 town, 3 scum, 1 SK. In this case SK knows that he has to kill scum to keep the game close and prevent a scum win. So any logical SK will target kyan, the obvious scum. That's still a one for one.
If it was a Vig kill instead of an SK, then there will only be one kill tonight, we have one more towns person that the above scenario gaining us an extra day which we use to lynch Kyan the liar.
So since it won't put us in an end game scenario as long as the SK plays to their win con, we should move forward with a Haly lynch.
We are confirmed to be in a 3M set up.
1 C would fit into a legit set up.
2 C would require another power role, equally likely to be a D or a V, but 2CV3M give a sk meaning vig had to not use shot or in a 0T game. So 2CD3M is probably likely if its 2C.
1C is roughly twice as likely as 2C though (59.3% vs 31.4%).
If its 1C, no additional power roles is slightly more likely than having additional roles (3T is 54.7%, 2T is 32.8, 1T is 10.9, 0T is just 1.5%)
I do feel its better if you don't confirm one way or the other on whether you are a 1 C or 2C kyan, allow scum to enjoy a bit of wifom in case there is another power role out there.
I believe kyan at the moment. Worst case scenario for town is we are dealing with 3 scum (confirmed) and SK. So 4 baddies. We have 10 people left after the 2 NKs and a mislynch. We lynch Haly, he flips town, we sit at 9 total, 5 town, 3 scum, 1 SK. In this case SK knows that he has to kill scum to keep the game close and prevent a scum win. So any logical SK will target kyan, the obvious scum. That's still a one for one.
If it was a Vig kill instead of an SK, then there will only be one kill tonight, we have one more towns person that the above scenario gaining us an extra day which we use to lynch Kyan the liar.
So since it won't put us in an end game scenario as long as the SK plays to their win con, we should move forward with a Haly lynch.
melonrabbit
Member
melonrabbit
Member
But this is also just a weird response. Feels posturing without taking a stand. guy is claiming a red check on you and you still think he's town
if you're both town and we have 2 kills again, tomorrow is lylo as well as international yell at kyan day
Cop counterclaim inc?
How do you know?
melonrabbit
Member
I believe him more than you, Mr. Buzzkill.
![url]](http://[url]https://media2.giphy.com/media/FbK2h97rStSAo/giphy.gif[/url])
Vote: Haly
Vote: Haly
I know my own alignment?
But now that I think about it there's a possibility Kyan is still cop and is... lying about my being "red". This would make even Ouro's gambit look reasonable and well thought out.
No, not necessarily. I thought so too and when I ran the scenario and SK can still maintain the town-scum ratio if they survive the lynch, NK, Roleblock, and manage to kill a scum.
Let's say, I'm lynched today, Kyan is killed, and CCS. Kyan flips town.
That ends up as 3 town, 1 SK, 3 scum. This would be LyLo EXCEPT, SK can still kill Mafia. So:
2 town, 1 SK, 2 scum.
And basically from this point forward SK has to kill Scum every night (or town, in the event of a successful scum lynch, without getting lynched or block or killed, in order to win. They really have their work cut out for them, but all hope is not lost as long as the SK is serious about winning.
That ends up as 3 town, 1 SK, 3 scum. This would be LyLo EXCEPT, SK can still kill Mafia. So:
2 town, 1 SK, 2 scum.
And basically from this point forward SK has to kill Scum every night (or town, in the event of a successful scum lynch, without getting lynched or block or killed, in order to win. They really have their work cut out for them, but all hope is not lost as long as the SK is serious about winning.
So, Kyan, the logic's on the table. I need you to be really honest here and answer two questions:
1) Are you really cop or some other power role?
2) Why would you lie about my false positive if you really were a cop?
Because if we go through with this then it's possibly game losing. When I flip town, town will want to lynch you for the claim. And if you're also town, then the two mislynches hands Mafia the victory unless the SK comes through for us.
1) Are you really cop or some other power role?
2) Why would you lie about my false positive if you really were a cop?
Because if we go through with this then it's possibly game losing. When I flip town, town will want to lynch you for the claim. And if you're also town, then the two mislynches hands Mafia the victory unless the SK comes through for us.
I think relying on them to hit a lying scum kyan tonight if haly flips town is fine. Depending on them to hit scum several times and shit is not.
Which begs the question why scum!kyan would pull this gambit today? It doesn't win scum the game. Why go after Haly?
Seems like a great way for scum kyan to kill themselves off the next day...doesn't really make much sense to lie.
I agree which is why I'm believing kyan. But they could always have miscounted or hope for a Bronx esque serial killer.
Non scum hitting SK leading to their loss at the hands of a scum victory
Okay, did you get Antitown or No Result? Because I'm thinking you could've been blocked and mistook it for a positive.
Your accusation caught me so off guard I had to look at my PM to make sure I wasn't actually on scum and just never noticed.
Your accusation caught me so off guard I had to look at my PM to make sure I wasn't actually on scum and just never noticed.
melonrabbit
Member
?
I said I had to reread my own PM because I might've misread it horribly. I'm just trying to convey how unexpected Kyan's claim was.
melonrabbit
Member
Didn't you question if Kyan knew the difference between a no result and a red check?
What happened to 'he's town pulling a gambit'?
You bolded the second part so I assume that's what you took issue with.
But otherwise, yes, because it's unfathomable otherwise. I don't understand Kyan's play at all and I'm looking for any and all possibilities why he made it.
I showed him how dangerous his play is to town. He didn't back off. Thus, I can only assume he's scum. I'm willing to lynch crab though?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
.
So my vote for crab was in part because of yesterday's shenanigans but also because I felt like kyan was pulling towards trying to distract attention away from a scum partner.
I feel like with lynching haly first we're likely to either hit 2 scum or hit a scum and confirm a town whereas lynching kyan first we can hit 2 scum without mislynching or kill our confirmed town before lynching one scum.
Lynching Haly is more even, but lynching Kyan has the best possible result which we may need.
The last consideration is that under this logic Kyan and Crab would have to be mafia and Haly is just scum which means lynching haly would have a chance of getting an SK and reducing KP giving us a longer game where we have more mislynches.
I feel like with lynching haly first we're likely to either hit 2 scum or hit a scum and confirm a town whereas lynching kyan first we can hit 2 scum without mislynching or kill our confirmed town before lynching one scum.
Lynching Haly is more even, but lynching Kyan has the best possible result which we may need.
The last consideration is that under this logic Kyan and Crab would have to be mafia and Haly is just scum which means lynching haly would have a chance of getting an SK and reducing KP giving us a longer game where we have more mislynches.