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Mini Mafia III |OT| An Amazing Alien Abduction Adventure
- Thread starter YesNOnoNOYes
- Start date
Do have to take into account chances of role blocker successfully stopping the kill as well. They know 3 members who aren't the sk, they presumably blocked last night so that's 4. They block another tonight covering 2 of the remaining 7 players. The longer it goes on the more likely that they find the sk. Just as words of wisdom for the sk. You gotta kill kyan tonight if haly flips town as scum will find you soon enough via their blocker. And if we have a town blocker it might be better to not move so as to not stop the sk s kill on scum!kyan
lol wat
There's no world in which I vote kyan over haly today.
OK so if we: lynch haly
1. Kyan is town cop, Haly is scum
- We lynch haly. woo.
2. Kyan is top cop, Haly is not scum and Kyan is lying
- I don't see any way this makes sense. We probably end up policy lynching kyan tomorrow.
3. Kyan is scum, lying about Haly
- We lynch haly and (just like 2) this leads to Kyan being killed more than likely next phase
4. Kyan is not a cop, making a gambit about (gut) Haly as scum
- We lynch Haly. If Kyan is right, we hit scum. If he's wrong, we lynch Kyan next day (probably) and town is kinda screwed.
Note the bad bad parts are 2 and 4. I don't see 2 as likely at all and I don't even think we should consider it as a possibility, unless kyan is a complete idiot. So that leaves 4.
Worst case scenario if we lynch haly is he's scum, kyan is town, and we policy lynch kyan the next day for lying. Now, if this truly is some weird ass gambit, he either is so sure that haly is scum he's willing to thoroughly sacrifice himself and possibly the whole game or he has a surefire way of securing his innocence tomorrow if haly flips town and we get out the pitchforks.
Not sure what to do...but it kind of seems like we might need to lynch haly.
How do you figure?
1. Kyan is town cop, Haly is scum
- We lynch haly. woo.
2. Kyan is top cop, Haly is not scum and Kyan is lying
- I don't see any way this makes sense. We probably end up policy lynching kyan tomorrow.
3. Kyan is scum, lying about Haly
- We lynch haly and (just like 2) this leads to Kyan being killed more than likely next phase
4. Kyan is not a cop, making a gambit about (gut) Haly as scum
- We lynch Haly. If Kyan is right, we hit scum. If he's wrong, we lynch Kyan next day (probably) and town is kinda screwed.
Note the bad bad parts are 2 and 4. I don't see 2 as likely at all and I don't even think we should consider it as a possibility, unless kyan is a complete idiot. So that leaves 4.
Worst case scenario if we lynch haly is he's scum, kyan is town, and we policy lynch kyan the next day for lying. Now, if this truly is some weird ass gambit, he either is so sure that haly is scum he's willing to thoroughly sacrifice himself and possibly the whole game or he has a surefire way of securing his innocence tomorrow if haly flips town and we get out the pitchforks.
Not sure what to do...but it kind of seems like we might need to lynch haly.
How do you figure?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You forgot 5.: mafia know their own roles, so they know how many Ts town rolled, so they are likely to be able to work out whether a claim is safe or not. It could be mafia know there can't be a cop, and are claiming a cop because it won't be counter-claimed. By bussing scum Haly as a claimed-cop with no counter-claim, Kyan would be given complete and total town confidence, all the way to end-game.
Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.
Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.
Why do this today unless you're scum too?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Do what today? You've lost me.
Ballsy, but not completely out of the possibilities.
So then we could lynch kyan, see his flip. If he's a cop, we lynch Haly. If he's scum, we wait on Haly. Kind of works no matter the scenario. Problem is, I think kyan is town and I lean haly as scum.
Hmmmm
Negative compadre. Just 3M gives 4T which is goon goon roleblockwr, but fails to exist in a case with 2 night kills. There is an open power role out and about that scum cannot know.
Pull this gambit. You looked like a sure lynch.
Not to mention scum would be betting that a sk would never hit kyan anyway.
how do I figure what?
How do you figure we can hit 2 scum by lynching kyan first? If kyan and haly are doing some scum bussing gambit thing?
Oh lynch haly and just don't 100% clear kyan regardless. Keep an eye on his play the rest of the game and play accordingly.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Hmm. Supposing MMMTTTT, but that has no SK... Could be MMMVTTT, but then SK and extra kills. Yeah, even in the situation where the scum have the most information, that'd be MMM*TTT with SK, so you're right. They'd be taking the 1 in 3 gamble the missing role is doc or blocker, not cop. I mean, I think I'd quite fancy those 1 in 3 odds, but that just adds to the balsiness. I wouldn't put it past some people in this game, but it's not as reasonable an option as I thought.
Actually 50/50 since cop is .15 doc is .1 and blocker is .05.
That's a coin flip. I don't take coin flip odds. Don't think a reasonable scum team does either.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm never a sure lynch, how dare you!
Yeah, it's true this doesn't account for how mafia plays around an SK. That doesn't mean this isn't a possibility, though - scum might have some other plan for the SK. The key point is that Haly being scum wouldn't clear Kyan in the way CCS is cleared or in the way an unCC'd mason claim would be clear.
crab was on the block, kyan is pushing another target, kyan is one of the people that could have been helping crab yesterday. If Kyan is scum I think it's incredibly likely that Crab is scum. I talked about crab and kyan in the post you quoted.
I could never describe a member of team hydro cannon as conservative scum
hey i was against it
Okay sure, so in this situation we lynch haly they come up town, kyan should get got by the sk, and then we would reassess and people would see these connections between crab and a confirmed scum kyan. We then lynch crab. That's not a good look for the scum team.
Well that's good to kno....wait a minute.
I dont think the SK would feel the need to kill mafia just yet. Especially not scum that is just going to get lynched. Each day phase where they lynch a mafia is a day they're not lynching you and the mafia number is going down leading to your win condition.
If they are a logical player they should be. The presence of the mafia role blocker means they have 2 chances every night of finding the SK. They already have 3 members cleared. Assuming they blocked someone who won't be dead before tonight that's 4 people already they know aren't the sk. That only leaves 6 people. 2 chances a night to hit. You need to be focusing scum right now. Town isn't the biggest threat with 3 members down and all town. That's mafia. Again unless they are overzealous, they need to kill scum tonight if town is lynched. Their margin of error is just way too small otherwise.
Town mislynch and 2 town deaths tonight leaves the game at 3v3v1 which is not even close to good for SK. Or any one who isn't town.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
whyyyyyyy
Zzzzzz
dont bait, just say your piece. Tired of melodramatic gambits from this community.
Because while content is good, I know town can be dumb. I might need time to convince you all that I am not the idiot you might think I am.
VOTE: Timeaisis
oh and karl why so mean you dont even know if there is a point to this
there might be
I want you to very clearly and in explicit terms say what your role actually is.
Hello everyone, I am Officer Kyaa and I hate my job. See Karl, I even wrote this instead of leaving you all hanging for the night.
1st, the tldr:
I did not check Haly, that was a #towngambit.
I checked Timeaisis instead.
And got antitown.
Da explanations:
1st, the actual red check on Time. Why did I pick him? It ended up being quite simple in the end. I was suspicious about Time and did not think he would die. He did not die and got a red back.
Then I started to think what should my moves be. I considered myself bit of a hazy read at best in towns eyes. I had my supporters, enemies, but most were on the fence. Secondly, I did not trust my ability to push a Timeaisis lynch without a claim. Finally, 1v1 trade is beneficial to town. The conclusion I reached was that I should claim, even if it meant that Id die on the following night.
but what if i could do more
I got an idea. What if I faked a check on someone, just to bait reactions. Scum would know what I hit with my fake check. If the fake was town, theyd know I was gambitting somehow and should be expected to be at least somewhat cautious with their reactions. If the fake was scum, not-that-good scum might attack me (unlikely though imo) or bus their mate easily. And then there was the fakes reaction too. I, everyone, could get a better read on them since theyd have to produce content. Content is good. Since not everyone was present when I started the gambit, I had to keep it up somewhat long so everyone would chime in.
So, what did I find out then? This would be a shitty post without this part, wouldnt it. Lets start with Haly. I picked Haly as the fake for the reasons I mentioned in #704, minus no. 5. I thought about using squidyj as the alternative but I was not confident at all that he and I would be online at the same time. So when Haly posted, I went with him in hopes that hed at least check the thread once or twice after his post before possibly going afk. The gambit achieves less if there is no opposing party to argue against me. I get the feeling Haly is town or a good scum player. Godfather ofc would be lols. To go that fast to the Kyan is gambitting-argument and getting the logic right, I think thatd be pretty hard for scum to think on the spot. So I feel I achieved the i gets better read on fake part of the gambit.
though someone do the godfather math pls
Then the compilation of others:
CCS is town.
Crab i dunno. #756 made me feel that he is setting up for a next day Kyan lynch with his theory. Alas, this feel tells me nothing about his alignment.
CzarTim looks for reasons for Haly to be scum. Finds some. Questions both me and Haly. Town lean.
Gorlak is sleeps zzz.
melonrabbit chooses to trust me and is 1st to vote for Haly after me. Scum if Haly is scum. Would scum who know I am gambitting go with my madness? I wouldnt.
Kawl_USC maths a bit and is fast to give me a chance. Scum if Haly is scum. Going along without committing and leaving me the chance to rescind my claim feels like a scum move but is it bit too obvious? and now he was mean so grr
squidyj does not trust me and wants to kill me. The Kyan-Haly order might be scum trying to distance themselves from town infighting or scum wanting to get the townie before their mate. Anyways, scum lean.
Timeaisis is scum.
1st, the tldr:
I did not check Haly, that was a #towngambit.
I checked Timeaisis instead.
And got antitown.
Da explanations:
1st, the actual red check on Time. Why did I pick him? It ended up being quite simple in the end. I was suspicious about Time and did not think he would die. He did not die and got a red back.
Then I started to think what should my moves be. I considered myself bit of a hazy read at best in towns eyes. I had my supporters, enemies, but most were on the fence. Secondly, I did not trust my ability to push a Timeaisis lynch without a claim. Finally, 1v1 trade is beneficial to town. The conclusion I reached was that I should claim, even if it meant that Id die on the following night.
but what if i could do more
I got an idea. What if I faked a check on someone, just to bait reactions. Scum would know what I hit with my fake check. If the fake was town, theyd know I was gambitting somehow and should be expected to be at least somewhat cautious with their reactions. If the fake was scum, not-that-good scum might attack me (unlikely though imo) or bus their mate easily. And then there was the fakes reaction too. I, everyone, could get a better read on them since theyd have to produce content. Content is good. Since not everyone was present when I started the gambit, I had to keep it up somewhat long so everyone would chime in.
So, what did I find out then? This would be a shitty post without this part, wouldnt it. Lets start with Haly. I picked Haly as the fake for the reasons I mentioned in #704, minus no. 5. I thought about using squidyj as the alternative but I was not confident at all that he and I would be online at the same time. So when Haly posted, I went with him in hopes that hed at least check the thread once or twice after his post before possibly going afk. The gambit achieves less if there is no opposing party to argue against me. I get the feeling Haly is town or a good scum player. Godfather ofc would be lols. To go that fast to the Kyan is gambitting-argument and getting the logic right, I think thatd be pretty hard for scum to think on the spot. So I feel I achieved the i gets better read on fake part of the gambit.
though someone do the godfather math pls
Then the compilation of others:
CCS is town.
Crab i dunno. #756 made me feel that he is setting up for a next day Kyan lynch with his theory. Alas, this feel tells me nothing about his alignment.
CzarTim looks for reasons for Haly to be scum. Finds some. Questions both me and Haly. Town lean.
Gorlak is sleeps zzz.
melonrabbit chooses to trust me and is 1st to vote for Haly after me. Scum if Haly is scum. Would scum who know I am gambitting go with my madness? I wouldnt.
Kawl_USC maths a bit and is fast to give me a chance. Scum if Haly is scum. Going along without committing and leaving me the chance to rescind my claim feels like a scum move but is it bit too obvious? and now he was mean so grr
squidyj does not trust me and wants to kill me. The Kyan-Haly order might be scum trying to distance themselves from town infighting or scum wanting to get the townie before their mate. Anyways, scum lean.
Timeaisis is scum.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
VOTE: Kyanrute
Explanation or death.
Explanation or death.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
fuck i start posting that before the explanation
now you've made me look dumb
UNVOTE
now you've made me look dumb
UNVOTE
I lied. Reaction bait. You are antitown.
Cop, C > 0. I checked Timeaisis and he is antitown.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You've got a few too many scums listed from the experiment there mate. The issue with the fake out is the only people who can know for sure that you are lying is haly if town, and scum if haly is town. So scum knows exactly what is going on and can act accordingly in at least some scenarios. Town are the ones left hanging in the breeze with no extra knowledge. I gave you a chance to rescind because if you do not rescind there is only one course of action for a logical towns person to make.
But I suppose the gambit falls into the area of peeking. It's dependent on guessing right. I'm not a fan of this, but I'm generally not a fan of unnecessarily flashy plays.
Vote: Timeaisis
Unless you're gonna change your story again kyan
Will go back and reread reactions now though.
But I suppose the gambit falls into the area of peeking. It's dependent on guessing right. I'm not a fan of this, but I'm generally not a fan of unnecessarily flashy plays.
Vote: Timeaisis
Unless you're gonna change your story again kyan
Will go back and reread reactions now though.
Wolf/wolf
Meaning both participants in a back and forth are wolf. Their interactions have to be manufactured so tend to read a bit off if they get sloppy.