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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
Wowwwww great move by the Braves. Can't believe they got Upton so cheap. Dbacks management dug their own graves in terms of value by waiting so long to work out a deal.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
We recorded every game of the World Series this year, and that's the audio you're getting for the postseason. The first strike of a playoff game, the crowd goes absolutely nuts, and that's the kind of thing you'll get this year. They play the national anthem, you'll see the players without their ball caps, and you'll see tons on animations and scenes that you just won't see in a regular game. That's the whole focus of the postseason, to make it feel like a completely different experience.
Click to expand...
thank god. that annoyed me when the world series felt like a game in May.
 
R

rekameohs

Banned
Just read this little factoid.

2012 Stats from 3B/OF portions of this trade:
.280/32HR/133RBI/23SB from Johnson/Upton
.284/32HR/151RBI/19SB from Prado/Ross.

Obviously sabermatricians would hate using those numbers, but still it gets a point across.
 
Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
rekameohs said:
Just read this little factoid.

2012 Stats from 3B/OF portions of this trade:
.280/32HR/133RBI/23SB from Johnson/Upton
.284/32HR/151RBI/19SB from Prado/Ross.

Obviously sabermatricians would hate using those numbers, but still it gets a point across.
Click to expand...

Upton injured his thumb in April and wasn't feeling healthy enough to take off the brace while batting until August. Which coincidentally is when Upton started hitting bombs again. 9 of his 17 HR came in in Aug/Sept. You also fail to acknowledged that Upton is still young and has MVP potential while Prado is coming off what will probably be a career year.

And yea I hate the fact you used RBI to try to make a point. Kind of ironic tho.

*uses old school flawed stats to make Upton look worse than Prado*
*completely ignores the on field scouting that says he was playing hurt 2/3 of the season*
 
M

McNei1y

Member
How do online franchises work in The Show? Is it just a schedule and rosters with the ability to trade players? Or are there actually minor leagues and stuff?
 
R

rekameohs

Banned
ZackusMaximus said:
Upton injured his thumb in April and wasn't feeling healthy enough to take off the brace while batting until August. Which coincidentally is when Upton started hitting bombs again. 9 of his 17 HR came in in Aug/Sept. You also fail to acknowledged that Upton is still young and has MVP potential while Prado is coming off what will probably be a career year.

And yea I hate the fact you used RBI to try to make a point. Kind of ironic tho.

*uses old school flawed stats to make Upton look worse than Prado*
*completely ignores the on field scouting that says he was playing hurt 2/3 of the season*
Click to expand...

Did I ever say Upton was worse than Prado? I was one of the ones that hated this trade, if you would kindly look a few pages back.

Another thing to consider is Upton's rather humongous Home/Road splits. It'll be interesting to see how a less hitter friendly park fares for him.
 
Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
rekameohs said:
Did I ever say Upton was worse than Prado? I was one of the ones that hated this trade, if you would kindly look a few pages back.

Another thing to consider is Upton's rather humongous Home/Road splits. It'll be interesting to see how a less hitter friendly park fares for him.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I didn't mean you personally, I mean whoever originally cherry picked that factoid.

Good point about park effects.
 
R

rekameohs

Banned
ZackusMaximus said:
Sorry, I didn't mean you personally, I mean whoever originally cherry picked that factoid.

Good point about park effects.
Click to expand...

Ah. The point is that the two incoming people will likely produce a similar net output to last year (regression has a factor, as you mentioned, but 3B was the gritty* Ryan Roberts for most of last year). The team still managed to go .500

SS is improved, the bullpen is improved, and the rotation is improved, and the team underperformed horribly last year, so that might be where some wins are made up.

*aka terrible
 
Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
rekameohs said:
Ah. The point is that the two incoming people will likely produce a similar net output to last year (regression has a factor, as you mentioned, but 3B was the gritty* Ryan Roberts for most of the year). The team still managed to go .500

SS is improved, the bullpen is improved, and the rotation is improved, and the team underperformed horribly last year, so that might be where some wins are made up.

*aka terrible
Click to expand...

I wouldn't count on the rotation being improved. I'd bet Delgado pitching half his games in Arizona is going to be ugly unless he suddenly figures things out at age 23 and cuts his walk rate way down. Obviously the potential is there but YIKES! I'm curious if the DBacks choose Delgado over Teheran or if the Braves saw they had all the leverage and said take it or leave it.
 
Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that Carl Pavano will be sidelined 6-8 weeks after suffering a ruptured spleen when he slipped and fell while shoveling snow on his driveway.
Click to expand...

Is it just me or does baseball have more unrelated freak injuries than any other sport?
 
E

Enron

Banned
ZackusMaximus said:
I wouldn't count on the rotation being improved. I'd bet Delgado pitching half his games in Arizona is going to be ugly unless he suddenly figures things out at age 23 and cuts his walk rate way down. Obviously the potential is there but YIKES! I'm curious if the DBacks choose Delgado over Teheran or if the Braves saw they had all the leverage and said take it or leave it.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure it was the latter. I read that the D'Backs turned down a deal with Teheren in it, and the Braves countered with Prado and Delgado.
 
Z

ZackusMaximus

Banned
Lambtron said:
I went ahead and fixed that for you.
Click to expand...

I dunno man, I think I'm on to something.

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/holloman/020307.html

My favourites are:

Starting pitcher: John Smoltz (Braves)
Once burned his chest while ironing a shirt ... which he was still wearing.

Starting pitcher: Tom Glavine (Braves)
Redefining the phrase "star hurler," he broke a rib in 1992 after vomiting up airplane food.

Starting pitcher: Nolan Ryan (Astros)
Missed a start after being bitten on his hand ... by a coyote.

Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Athletics)
Broke his hand while punching a trash can just weeks after stabbing himself in the leg trying to open a package.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there are plenty of other ones not on that list. I remember a guitar hero injury, a hot tub injury, Milton Bradley, deer meat, treadmills, several other self stabbings, etc etc.
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
ZackusMaximus said:
I wouldn't count on the rotation being improved. I'd bet Delgado pitching half his games in Arizona is going to be ugly unless he suddenly figures things out at age 23 and cuts his walk rate way down. Obviously the potential is there but YIKES! I'm curious if the DBacks choose Delgado over Teheran or if the Braves saw they had all the leverage and said take it or leave it.
Click to expand...

The Braves were not offering Prado in a deal with Teheran. Towers declined a package that had Teheran in it but no Prado. Braves said Prado would only go with Delgado and that's what happened.
 
S

Syrinx

Member
ZackusMaximus said:
I dunno man, I think I'm on to something.

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/holloman/020307.html

My favourites are:



I'm sure there are plenty of other ones not on that list. I remember a guitar hero injury, a hot tub injury, Milton Bradley, deer meat, treadmills, several other self stabbings, etc etc.
Click to expand...

I remember the Mets once had to put Pedro Martinez on the DL because he fell and injured his hip while tucking in his shirt or something. Was kinda funny at the time...but it turned out to be an omen of things to come.
 
S

Sanjuro

Member
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
From BBWAA dinner in Boston: RT @PeteAbe: Francona: "Disappointed in the menu. Thought it would be fried chicken and beer." Got big laughs.

I sure hope Cleveland doesn't break his spirit.
 
R

RBH

Member
League-wide reaction to the Justin Upton trade:


We surveyed seven big-league executives and scouts Thursday. And while they had reservations, all but one of them would have made this deal without blinking.

"Great deal for Atlanta," said one AL exec.

"Love, love, love this for Atlanta," said an NL exec.

"Any time you can trade for a player like that," said another NL executive, "an All-Star-caliber player who's that young [25 years old], it has to improve your team."

By adding Justin Upton, the Braves got younger, added much-needed power, upgraded their outfield defense and set themselves up to have one of the most talented young outfields in baseball in place for at least the next three years. They have B.J. (age 28) signed through 2017, Justin (age 25) signed through 2015 and their mega-skilled right fielder, Jason Heyward (age 23), under control through 2015.

"It's a scout's dream," said one NL executive. "It's three five-tool players. That's what you've got in one outfield."

"If somebody had said three years ago that you could have those three guys in the same outfield," said one scout, "people would have been going nuts. Right?"

Uhhhh, right. And that's what's so interesting. None of those three has maxed out all the tools in his tool box, either. So there isn't just big talent here. There's upside.

If, that is, the Upton brothers can bring out the best in each other -- as opposed to the opposite.

But can they? Not an easy question to answer.

"It's a risk," said one executive who has some history with the Uptons.

"That's the $64,000 question," said another exec with similar history. "B.J.'s troubles in Tampa are well-documented. He's been a moody player. Did he grow out of it to some degree? Yes. But he frustrated a lot of people along the way. And the same with his brother in Arizona, because he's out the door, too. So now do they feed off each other and give each other something they didn't have in the two places that just set them free?"

That's an impossible question to answer, of course. Anyone who has ever spent time around the Upton brothers will tell you how likeable they are and how close they are. But will that closeness be a good thing or a precarious thing, now that they're playing side-by-side in the same outfield? Again, impossible question to answer -- yet.

"That's where the risk comes in," said one scout with a background in coaching. "To me, it's a maturity thing. Both these guys should be at a place in their lives where they understand what's going on. They've had their travails elsewhere. And now they've got a chance to support each other. …

"This can be a really good thing if they're able to feed off each other in a positive way. But if one of them is struggling or having problems with a coach or manager, then you could have two guys who aren't happy with what's going on instead of one."

Maybe on a previous incarnation of the Braves, that would be less of an issue. Chipper Jones would have handled it. John Smoltz would have handled it. Bobby Cox would have made sure somebody handled it.

But the Uptons arrive in Atlanta at a time when the faces are changing, the clubhouse is changing and the culture is changing. So more than one of the people we surveyed Thursday raised a pivotal question about this Braves team:

"Who's the real leader on that club now?" asked one longtime scout. "Losing Martin Prado is huge from an intangible standpoint."

"That's my question," said an NL executive. "Does this trade make them better talent-wise? No question. But team-wise? I don't think so. I'm not faulting them on the deal. I'm just asking: Who's been the heart and soul of the Atlanta Braves for the last 18 years? That's Chipper Jones. And who's been the player for the last two years who looked like he was sliding in to assume that responsibility? Martin Prado. So that's a big, big loss for that team."

Prado certainly wasn't the most famous name on this team's roster. But he was so beloved by his teammates and carried so much weight in everything he said and did that his exit in this deal will reverberate more than most people would think.

It was the biggest reason, in fact, the same NL exec was the only person we surveyed who gave a thumbs-down on this trade.

"I like the deal on paper because talent is talent," he said. "But you look at a team like the Marlins last year, and you say, 'Sometimes, things look good on paper but they don't look so good on the dirt.' The pieces have to fit together. And you've got to have guys at the front of the bus who know you don't have to be cool. Sometimes, you have to push buttons that need to be pushed to keep your team on the right track. And who does that now on this team?

"Maybe it's Tim Hudson, but he's a pitcher. Maybe it's Brian McCann. But as much as I love him and I think he's a winner, he's worried about his own future there, about whether he'll be the next guy out the door. So not everything about this deal is what it appears."

But when you weigh it all -- age and talent, short-term and long-term upside -- there doesn't seem much doubt: This was a trade the Braves had to make.

"What they gave up wasn't nearly what Arizona had on the table with Seattle," said an AL scout. "They [the Diamondbacks] had a much better chance of getting impact from that Seattle deal than what they got in this deal."

"They're getting a 25-year-old player who was an MVP candidate a year ago," another exec said of the Braves. "And they traded [expendable] parts for him … nothing that will hurt Atlanta at all."

Somewhere off in the distance, you can hear a chorus of voices in Arizona saying: Teams don't trade 25-year-old MVP candidates without a really good reason. And that may be true.

But all we know is, there are two extremely talented brothers heading for Turner Field with a chance for two much-needed fresh starts. "All they need to do now," said one scout, "is be 80 to 90 percent of what we've all projected them to be -- and the Atlanta Braves will have two All-Stars on their hands."
Click to expand...
http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8877481/braves-bring-justin-bj-upton-together
 
R

rekameohs

Banned
ZackusMaximus said:
I wouldn't count on the rotation being improved. I'd bet Delgado pitching half his games in Arizona is going to be ugly unless he suddenly figures things out at age 23 and cuts his walk rate way down. Obviously the potential is there but YIKES! I'm curious if the DBacks choose Delgado over Teheran or if the Braves saw they had all the leverage and said take it or leave it.
Click to expand...

I'm not referring to Delgado when I say the rotation's improved. I'm referring to adding McCarthy / losing Saunders..
 
R

RBH

Member
Tampa Bay Rays officials say that MLB has lost faith in the Tampa Bay area:




MLB issued this statement this afternoon:



“The Commissioner has had conversations with Stuart Sternberg and is disappointed with the current situation in the Tampa Bay market.

The status quo is simply not sustainable. The Rays have been a model organization, averaging nearly 92 wins per year since 2008 and participating in the Postseason three times, including their inaugural World Series in 2008.

Their .565 winning percentage over the last five years is second among all American League Clubs and third in all of Major League Baseball. Last year, the 30 Major League Clubs averaged nearly 2.5 million in total attendance; the Rays, who finished with a 90-72 record, drew 1,559,681, which ranked last in the game.

The Club is an eager contributor to worthy causes in the Tampa and St. Petersburg communities and takes pride in meeting the social responsibilities that come with being a Major League franchise. We are hopeful that the market will respond in kind to a Club that has done a marvelous job on and off the field.”
Click to expand...
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/mlb-statement-status-quo-not-sustainable



TAMPA — Tampa Bay Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, angling for a new stadium, said Thursday he wants to keep his team in the region, but "Major League Baseball at this point no longer believes in the Tampa Bay area.''

Five years of winning baseball, coupled with poor attendance, have taken a toll on his fellow owners, Sternberg said. Even with a healthy media market, the Rays still drain tens of millions of dollars a year from baseball's revenue-sharing pot.

"That gap is growing,'' Sternberg told the Hillsborough County Commission. "Put yourself in their place. They look at the success, we have an exciting team, and then they see where the gate is. They don't care whether it's Clearwater, St. Petersburg or Tampa. They just know this as Tampa Bay.''

Sternberg would not speculate about what action baseball officials might take, or when. He did soften his statements at times, suggesting that a new stadium in the right location could keep the team in Tampa Bay.

His underlying message — that time is running short — struck a chord.

Commission Chairman Ken Hagan contends that the team's stadium standoff with St. Petersburg jeopardizes baseball for the entire region. He invited the Rays to discuss their future Thursday despite a warning from St. Petersburg Mayor Bill Foster that the city might sue Hillsborough for meddling.

Tropicana Field "is not a sustainable long-term option,'' Hagan reiterated Thursday. "It's not a matter of whether the Rays ultimately relocate but when and where. To simply put our heads in the sand and take the position that the issue will mysteriously resolve is short-sighted.''

Apprised of these comments, Mayor Foster took a conciliatory tack. He praised commissioners for restraint because they didn't discuss specific stadium locations. He also praised Sternberg for candor, saying the Rays' owner privately told him about baseball's disenchantment with the entire region — and not just St. Petersburg — two years ago.

"That's why I have taken the position" of not letting the Rays look for stadium sites outside the city, Foster said. The Trop contract, which runs through 2027, binds the team to the entire region, he said.

In response to inquiries, Major League Baseball released a statement Thursday praising the Rays for success on the field and contributions to the community. Commissioner Bud Selig "is disappointed with the current situation in Tampa Bay,'' the statement said. "The status quo is simply not sustainable.''

Thursday's one-hour presentation was the team's first wide-ranging, public stadium discussion since June 2010, when Sternberg announced that he needed to explore stadium options outside of St. Petersburg. He would not say Thursday whether he prefers a downtown Tampa location, as many observers believe.

But fellow owners "will be looking to me to explain to them just why this market can work,'' he said. "They believe we need to be pitch perfect in getting it right the next time around.''

Team officials said about one-third of fans — including ticket buyers and television watchers — live in Hillsborough County and about one-quarter live in Pinellas. The balance comes mostly from five surrounding counties.

Only 600,000 people live within a 30 minute drive of the Trop, lowest among all major league teams and lower than eight minor league teams.

"We have some of the best fans in baseball, and we understand the impact of the economy for the last five years,'' said Michael Kalt, senior vice president for development and business affairs. "But when you strip all that away, we have a fundamental issue with the location in a market that is already challenging'' because of demographics and disposable income.

The failure of a proposed waterfront stadium in 2008 and ensuing poor attendance was "extremely deflating,'' Sternberg said. The Rays planned to "rebrand" and drop "Devil" from the team name. They had promising young players in the pipeline and figured attendance would improve with winning.

"You couldn't ask for more to get this new stadium built, but it really fell on deaf ears,'' he said. "We thought: What are we going to do now? We were winning games, and it was crickets out there as far as business leaders and others. I was quite shocked and taken aback.''

When then-Mayor Rick Baker set up a group of civic leaders to study stadium options, it angered city officials by recommending West Shore and downtown Tampa as possible locations, along with St. Petersburg's Gateway area.

"It was really shocking to me, so see the level and differences of provincial beliefs,'' Sternberg said. "A regional approach is so important . . . and a body of water should not be the defining point.''

In retrospect, he said, the team dodged a bullet by not building on the waterfront. Attendance that continued to drop for five years reinforced the need for a more central location.

By comparison, Kalt noted that both the Rays and Texas Rangers were near the league bottom in attendance until they both went on a five-year winning streak. Last year, the Rangers finished third in attendance.

Though Sternberg would not set any timetables, he did speak of longer, personal time horizons than he had in previous public statements.

"In 2027, I expect to be doing this. I expect my kids to be doing this, because baseball is going to be here another 7, 8 or 12 years.''

He worries, though, that his intentions won't carry the day with his colleagues if the team starts losing again and attendance drops further. "I will have an enormous amount of say about it,'' he said, "but there comes a point where the numbers just would not work out.''

Without offering any specifics, Commissioner Mark Sharpe promised that the commission would work with the Rays.

"Your cries are not falling on deaf ears,'' Sharpe said. "We know you put money and time and great risk into this project and we are not going to fail you.''

The Rays will continue their public discussions Tuesday at the Pinellas County Commission.
Click to expand...
http://www.tampabay.com/news/localg...longer-believes-in-the-tampa-bay-area/1272064
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Family Teammates

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/family/fam6.shtml
Sanjuro said:
All that means is the Braves outfield has fifteen tools.
Click to expand...
Eq4mGF2.jpg
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Tear down the One World Trade Center and build a new baseball stadium there. Rays to Manhattan! (that location would be amazing).
 
D

Dre3001

Member
How about the Rays actually move to Tampa instead of playing in St. Petersburg?

Rays could easily double there attendance and draw the Tampa/Orlando crowd if they moved to downtown
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
How would they re-do the divisions if the Rays were to move to Portland? They've wanted a baseball team forever.

I could see them moving the Rays to the AL West, the Astros to the AL Central, and the Indians to the AL East.
 
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