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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

O

Opiate

Member
ESPN arguing Pujols is likely "just" an All Star now and not likely to be a competitor for MVP again.


I had said basically the same thing during last season, although I left room for the possibility that Pujols could have an MVP year again. I think his "baseline" for now is probably around 5-6 WAR, and any individual can have a flukey season where they end up 2-3 WAR ahead of their baseline. In other words, I can imagine a season where Pujols ends up with 8-9 WAR still, I just don't think it represents his "norm" any longer, that if it happened it wouldn't be repeatable, and generally is unlikely.

I will also say that the Angels have got to be thanking their stars that Trout worked out as well as he did. If he had been a bust, the Angels would look a lot more like a bloated mess Dodgers than they would a bloated-but-still-contending Yankees.
 
R

Red_taiyaki

Member
Fox318 said:
rowuG7xh.jpg


Map of ballparks if foul lines extended past the park
Click to expand...

:O

Amazing....also, poor midwest lol
 
L

Little Green Yoda

Member
Opiate said:
In other words, I can imagine a season where Pujols ends up with 8-9 WAR still, I just don't think it represents his "norm" any longer, that if it happened it wouldn't be repeatable, and generally is unlikely.
Click to expand...
Anybody expecting 8-9 WAR out of a post-prime Pujols was delusional. The question was always whether he could maintain 5-6 WAR for a good chunk of his contract so that the marketing aspect of having a superstar and the time value of money could soften the blow of such a ridiculous commitment. That's looking less and less likely at this point. There really aren't any more good excuses for his deteriorating plate discipline right now (no more contract talk distractions, no more adjustment period, etc.) so if his 2013 BB% is still well below his career average, he's probably toast.

I can't wait for the Angels to turn into the 2013 Yankees in 4-5 years.
 
V

vas_a_morir

Banned
Opiate said:
ESPN arguing Pujols is likely "just" an All Star now and not likely to be a competitor for MVP again.


I had said basically the same thing during last season, although I left room for the possibility that Pujols could have an MVP year again. I think his "baseline" for now is probably around 5-6 WAR, and any individual can have a flukey season where they end up 2-3 WAR ahead of their baseline. In other words, I can imagine a season where Pujols ends up with 8-9 WAR still, I just don't think it represents his "norm" any longer, that if it happened it wouldn't be repeatable, and generally is unlikely.

I will also say that the Angels have got to be thanking their stars that Trout worked out as well as he did. If he had been a bust, the Angels would look a lot more like a bloated mess Dodgers than they would a bloated-but-still-contending Yankees.
Click to expand...

Didn't ESPN (or somebody at ESPN) rank him as the best fantasy first baseman in MLB like two months ago?

EDIT:http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=2013_ranks_250
 
O

Opiate

Member
Little Green Yoda said:
Anybody expecting 8-9 WAR out of a post-prime Pujols was delusional. The question was always whether he could maintain 5-6 WAR for a good chunk of his contract so that the marketing aspect of having a superstar and the time value of money could soften the blow of such a ridiculous commitment. That's looking less and less likely at this point. There really aren't any more good excuses for his deteriorating plate discipline at this point (no more contract talk distractions, no more adjustment period, etc.) so if his BB% is still well below his career average, he's probably toast.

I can't wait for the Angels to turn into the 2013 Yankees in 4-5 years.
Click to expand...

If Pujols falls to even a 4 WAR player (which is still a very respectable total) he will not be worth his money based purely on WAR as soon as next year. As you say, though, his value extends beyond his actual playing abilities at this point, so calculating his "superstar intangibles" is effectively impossible.
 
O

Opiate

Member
vas_a_morir said:
Didn't ESPN (or somebody at ESPN) rank him as the best fantasy first baseman in MLB like two months ago?

EDIT:http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=2013_ranks_250
Click to expand...

Again, still totally possible he'll have a year or two left with MVP caliber numbers, in the same way that anyone with a 5 WAR baseline could have a 9 WAR year if the stars align.

I think this is now a combination of wishful thinking and relying too significantly on past precedent without considering context. Pujols has been so good for so long and done it so consistently that it will take years before many people recognize that he's taken a legitimate step backwards. It's very common, in my experience, for former superstars to still be treated like superstars for years after their superstar status has statistically faded.
 
E

evil solrac v3.0

Member
Opiate said:
Again, still totally possible he'll have a year or two left with MVP caliber numbers, in the same way that anyone with a 5 WAR baseline could have a 9 WAR year if the stars align.

I think this is now a combination of wishful thinking and relying too significantly on past precedent without considering context. Pujols has been so good for so long and done it so consistently that it will take years before many people recognize that he's taken a legitimate step backwards. It's very common, in my experience, for former superstars to still be treated like superstars for years after their superstar status has statistically faded.
Click to expand...

exactly. the Angels must be smart and know when to pull back on Albert.
 
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