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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

Y

yankeehater

Member
CygnusXS said:
Yes. Yes they should.
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That is one possibility I guess, of course you could be completely fucking wrong also. Gee I wonder which one it is.

eznark said:
They are going to use Chapman in games where they are already the overwhelming favorites to win. Teams in a save situation going into the ninth inning win an overwhelming majority of games, even one run games. Using your best pitcher in those situations is like throwing gas on a napalm fire. What's the point? As a closer he will face what, 12 batters in an average week? Topping out at 15? A starting pitcher is going to get that in one bad start. He has two good outings and he's likely to face 40+ batters in that week. In innings where the outcome is far less certain.

The smart thing to do would be to use someone like Broxton or Andrusek if you think you need a "closer" in the ninth and use Chapman as a fireman. Then I would love the idea of him being in the bullpen.

To vas' point, I don't think there is any evidence to suggest that throwing 3-5 times a week at max effort 20 pitches each time is any less strenuous on the arm than throwing 110 pitches twice a week. There could be, I've just never seen it.
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So then you agree with me. I never said anything about him closing, and even mentioned the Phils 8th inning problems specifically. My only point was that a reliever can be more valuable then a starter.
 
J

JABEE

Member
eznark said:
I'm sure he will be the best closer in baseball. And his talents will have been completely wasted.
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So your contention is that he has a great arm, and that they should use him as a starter, because him being a one inning close would be a waste of his talents?

He would be much more valuable if he could prove that he can be effective as a starting pitcher. You think he should be given a chance to succeed in that position? I think they could allow him to do that, but it seems they are worried about his arm. They could put limits on his starts or use him as a hybrid closer/long reliever. He could be someone that eats two or three innings in relief to close out a game.

From the reports that I've read, he appears to be losing velocity and control when pitching longer outings, but it could be a risk worth taking in his development for a team like the Reds that should be a playoff team. If he pans out as a starter, they will be in great shape.

I just don't see anything right now that says he will be successful in that role. I can't hate the Reds for making this decision. They can still move him if their attitudes change.
 
B

bluemax

Banned
yankeehater said:
Plus out of the bullpen he can effect several games a week rather then just 1 as a starter. Just look at the Phils last year, they lost so many games in the 8th inning.
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JABEE said:
Do yo think Chapman can be valuable as a starting pitcher in the majors with his arm? He is much more valuable as a pitcher out of the bullpen than a starting pitcher. From everything I hear, his velocity and control drops severely after a couple innings. It's about using your resources to their full potential.
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A top end relief pitcher is worth around 3 WAR. Since 2000 only about 2 RPs per season reach that level.

That's the equivalent of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, etc. last year.

Top end starters like Felix Hernandez, Verlander, Kershaw are worth 5-6 WAR.

An ace starter is worth basically double of a top end closer.
 
V

vas_a_morir

Banned
I don't think Chapman can mentally handle the starter role. He tends to collapse when pitching from the stretch. He spirals out of control at the first sign of difficulty. Maybe mentally isn't the word.... more like 'emotionally.'

Once he said he wanted to close instead of start publicly, what can you do, really?
 
J

JABEE

Member
bluemax said:
A top end relief pitcher is worth around 3 WAR. Since 2000 only about 2 RPs per season reach that level.

That's the equivalent of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, etc. last year.

Top end starters like Felix Hernandez, Verlander, Kershaw are worth 5-6 WAR.

An ace starter is worth basically double of a top end closer.
Click to expand...
We don't know if he can be a top end starter. We know he is a top end closer. The Reds are worried he will collapse in the starting role.
 
Z

Zep

Banned
vas_a_morir said:
I don't think Chapman can mentally handle the starter role. He tends to collapse when pitching from the stretch. He spirals out of control at the first sign of difficulty. Maybe mentally isn't the word.... more like 'emotionally.'

Once he said he wanted to close instead of start publicly, what can you do, really?
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That is one possibility I guess, of course you could be completely fucking wrong also. Gee I wonder which one it is.
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Gonna go with that answer!
 
B

bluemax

Banned
Meh I don't buy that mental/emotional bull shit. That's stuff people on message boards talk up.

If you want to back it up with some data though...

JABEE said:
We don't know if he can be a top end starter. We know he is a top end closer. The Reds are worried he will collapse in the starting role.
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This is the kind of backwards thinking that lead the Mariners to dealing Brandon Morrow.
 
J

JABEE

Member
bluemax said:
Meh I don't buy that mental/emotional bull shit. That's stuff people on message boards talk up.

If you want to back it up with some data though...
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I think you can make an argument ignoring the emotional part. He has proven to be an excellent bullpen pitcher. I don't think you can infer that he will produce at the level of a top end starter if he is put in that role. I'm okay with the Reds decision to put him in a position to make a considerable impact on the team without the risk of a huge drop-off.
 
Z

Zep

Banned
bluemax said:
Meh I don't buy that mental/emotional bull shit. That's stuff people on message boards talk up.

If you want to back it up with some data though...



This is the kind of backwards thinking that lead the Mariners to dealing Brandon Morrow.
Click to expand...

But the guy came out publicly and said he's more comfortable closing...What else is there to argue? That tells me its something mental.
 
J

JABEE

Member
bluemax said:
This is the kind of backwards thinking that lead the Mariners to dealing Brandon Morrow.
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They cannot have to give up on him completely. He Is still young. They can still transition him to a starter down the road. I'm okay with the Reds' decision if they don't think he's ready yet.
 
B

bluemax

Banned
Zep said:
But the guy came out publicly and said he's more comfortable closing...What else is there to argue? That tells me its something mental.
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That doesn't mean its not a massive waste of resources.

And Brandon Morrow was more comfortable closing until he wasn't.
 
J

JABEE

Member
bluemax said:
That doesn't mean its not a massive waste of resources.

And Brandon Morrow was more comfortable closing until he wasn't.
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It doesn't have to happen this season though. If the Reds were giving up on Chapman ever becoming a starter, I would agree with you, but this season, I'm okay with the Reds' decision.
 
Z

Zep

Banned
bluemax said:
That doesn't mean its not a massive waste of resources.
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And you could avoid wasting those resources by not making him just the closer, like previously stated. I have a feeling he would be a lot more comfortable in that type of pitching 3-5x a week role, than to start, then see where it goes next season.

But then that opens him up to more Dusty abuse.
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Mr. Enigma said:
A member of Giants GAF should make the MLB OT.
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I nominate Corran!

It should also incorporate this image somehow:

IKh5Xl.jpg
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
None ever said that Chapman must be the closer and only pitch the 9th. Let Broxton do that and let Chapman come in in the 7th when things get dicey and pitch 2 innings. Does Dusty even use his closers to only pitch the 9th? I know that is what Charlie does and it can be frustrating as a fan some times.
 
E

eznark

Banned
bluemax said:
A top end relief pitcher is worth around 3 WAR. Since 2000 only about 2 RPs per season reach that level.

That's the equivalent of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, etc. last year.

Top end starters like Felix Hernandez, Verlander, Kershaw are worth 5-6 WAR.

An ace starter is worth basically double of a top end closer.
Click to expand...


You could make an argument based on Win Probability Added. It's what people point to when saying Rivera is the greatest post season pitcher in history.
 
J

jakncoke

Banned
The Bucs also converted first baseman Jared Lakind to pitching, which is (as we saw a couple years ago with Jesus Brito) a last-ditch effort to try to turn him into a prospect (and hey, Lakind is left-handed). The Pirates gave Lakind a $400,000 bonus out of high school when they picked him in the 2010 draft, but clearly, that didn't work at all -- he posted a .445 OPS for State College last year.
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Pirates havent seen much success from all these over slots over the past few seasons. Maybe I should be thankful Bud Selig changed the system. It seems we just were wasting tons of money trying to hit prospects
 
J

Jubs

Member
Is there anywhere i can go to check out spring training stats for players? Yes i know spring training doesnt mean anything, but i just wanted to see how some of the younger players are doing.
 
T

The Frankman

Banned
Rafael Montero looking good in his outing today, 4 IP, 0 runs. Another of the Mets' pitching prospects that have progressed from 2-3 years ago.

Also Zach Lutz sucks.
 
D

Dmncnby2k9

Banned
Jubs said:
Is there anywhere i can go to check out spring training stats for players? Yes i know spring training doesnt mean anything, but i just wanted to see how some of the younger players are doing.
Click to expand...
Baseball reference. They even have a rating on how good the opposition they r facing is.
 
D

Dmncnby2k9

Banned
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) tweeted at 0:54 PM on Sat, Mar 23, 2013:
Scout 1 on Wheeler: "He's got four pitches." Scout 2: "And they're all plus, plus, plus, plus." ... Definite No. 1. Ready now.

cantwait.gif
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Yeah, the Mets rotation is likely going to be deadly in a year or two. Honestly, you guys earned it. Sincerely hope these pitchers work out. Especially Wheeler.
 
B

bluemax

Banned
yankeehater said:
That is one possibility I guess, of course you could be completely fucking wrong also. Gee I wonder which one it is.



So then you agree with me. I never said anything about him closing, and even mentioned the Phils 8th inning problems specifically. My only point was that a reliever can be more valuable then a starter.
Click to expand...

A reliever can be more valuable than a starter sure. But Chapman would have to turn into a 4th or 5th caliber starter to lose value as a starter. If he turns into a 3 it's a wash. If he turns into a 2 or 1 it's a win.

Top end closers also tend to have shorter careers. Mariano Rivera is an exception, not the rule.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
CygnusXS said:
Yeah, the Mets rotation is likely going to be deadly in a year or two. Honestly, you guys earned it. Sincerely hope these pitchers work out. Especially Wheeler.
Click to expand...
Starting pitching hasn't been the issue. It's the bullpen and the offense going ice cold late in games. The best rotation in the world can't help that.
 
D

Doytch

Member
bluemax said:
A reliever can be more valuable than a starter sure. But Chapman would have to turn into a 4th or 5th caliber starter to lose value as a starter. If he turns into a 3 it's a wash. If he turns into a 2 or 1 it's a win.

Top end closers also tend to have shorter careers. Mariano Rivera is an exception, not the rule.
Click to expand...
This could be selection bias. Are relievers players who have something inherent in them that makes them prone to injury or is there something about the position that makes players prone to injury.

I mean, how many build-like-a-house relievers are there? Don't we frequently hear stuff like "he doesn't have the frame to handle 200 innings"? If you throw Felix into the bullpen, does he break down as easily as other relievers (WITH THAT ELBOW PROLLY!)?
lol @ these homer Jays announcers on Reyes' jock.
Click to expand...
Reyes-Dancing.gif
 
S

Syrinx

Member
Dmncnby2k9 said:
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) tweeted at 0:54 PM on Sat, Mar 23, 2013:
Scout 1 on Wheeler: "He's got four pitches." Scout 2: "And they're all plus, plus, plus, plus." ... Definite No. 1. Ready now.

cantwait.gif
Click to expand...

He's my primary interest going into this season. His first start will be the game I do everything I can to make absolute sure I watch.
 
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