Support NeoGAF

[Y2Kev]

Catchers always fall apart anyways. Look at Mauer.

 

[Link]

And he's been in the league since 2001. So yes, its a short track record.

Not exactly a fair evaluation, since he wasn't a knuckleballer for a lot of that.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

And he's been in the league since 2001. So yes, its a short track record.

But he didn't really become a pure knuckleballer until the mid-2000s, and he didn't get much time in the majors after the switch until 2008 onward.

I get what you're saying, in that he's a veteran player that suddenly "got it," but there's an obvious reason for that. After he figured out how to effectively pitch the knuckleball, he's been nails. Because there's an explanation for his massive increase in performance, I think it's justifiable to think that his recent success is at least somewhat sustainable.

 

[MC Safety]

But he didn't really become a pure knuckleballer until the mid-2000s, and he didn't get much time in the majors after the switch until 2008 onward.

I get what you're saying, in that he's a veteran player that suddenly "got it," but there's an obvious reason for that. After he figured out how to effectively pitch the knuckleball, he's been nails. Because there's an explanation for his massive increase in performance, I think it's justifiable to think that his recent success is at least somewhat sustainable.

Yeah. If I had to bet, I would bet on Dickey being one of those players who will play until he's 45 or 46, and with a reasonable bit of success.

 

[rando14]

Yeah. If I had to bet, I would bet on Dickey being one of those players who will play until he's 45 or 46, and with a reasonable bit of success.

45 to 46? Ok I've heard enough

 

[Link]

45 to 46? Ok I've heard enough

He's a knuckleballer with no UCL. I can believe it.

 

[Syrinx]

45 to 46? Ok I've heard enough

It really isn't at all out of the realm of possibility for a knuckleballer. I doubt he'll be a Cy Young pitcher at that age, but knucklers have done it before.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

45 to 46? Ok I've heard enough

Jamie disagrees.

 

[rando14]

Lol maybe I'm biased because he threw 4 WP in an inning for the M's back in 08

Jamie disagrees.

Different kind of pitcher, plus he lost most of it after he turned like 40 or 41

Also, what you have to consider is that RA Dickey won 20 games with the New York Mets playing behind him.

On a good team, he'd easily have won four or five more games and lost one or two less.

WL record is worthless.

 

[MC Safety]

Also, what you have to consider is that RA Dickey won 20 games with the New York Mets playing behind him.

On a good team, he'd easily have won four or five more games and lost one or two less.

 

[Windu]

45 to 46? Ok I've heard enough

Phil Neikro played till age 48 (1987)
Tim Wakefield age 44 (2011)
Jesse Haines age 43 (1937)
Hoyt Williams age 49 (1972)
Joe Niekro age 43 (1988)
Charlie Hough age 46 (1994)

among others.

45-46 is very realistic.

Dickey also throws pretty damn hard for a Knuckleballer.

 

[MC Safety]

WL record is worthless.

Not on The New York Mets it isn't.

 

[CygnusXS]

I know everyone here thinks I'm crazy, but if the reports are true, the prospects are pitchers. But the thing is, the Mets need position players, not pitchers.

It's not like there's anything stopping the Mets from flipping part of their excess of pitching to a team with more desirable position prospects than what the Blue Jays have to offer.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Different kind of pitcher, plus he lost most of it after he turned like 40 or 41

Don't disagree, but he was in the majors for quite awhile after turning 40. And he was even further behind the 8-ball because he wasn't a knuckler. Moyer did it on pure moxie.

 

[Syrinx]

It's not like there's anything stopping the Mets from flipping part of their excess of pitching to a team with more desirable position prospects than what the Blue Jays have to offer.

Problem is that there really isn't such a thing as "excess of pitching".

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Not on The New York Mets it isn't.

on every team it is.

 

[Link]

Problem is that there really isn't such a thing as "excess of pitching".

There is when you've got absolutely no depth elsewhere.

 

[rando14]

Phil Neikro played till age 48 (1987)
Tim Wakefield age 44 (2011)
Jesse Haines age 43 (1937)
Hoyt Williams age 49 (1972)
Joe Niekro age 43 (1988)
Charlie Hough age 46 (1994)

among others.

45-46 is very realistic.

Realistic? Sure. Good? Very unlikely. Phil's the only one on that list that really did that well in their 40s. Hough was alright, still above 4

Wakefield? lol
Don't know much about Haines
Never heard of Hoyt Williams, do you mean Hoyt Wilhelm?
Joe Neikro lost it after like 40.

 

[MC Safety]

on every team it is.

I don't buy that. I know there are higher level statistics that bear out a pitcher's worth, but if you win 20 games with the New York Mets behind you, you have accomplished something, and that number is of some value.

 

[rando14]

I don't buy that. I know there are higher level statistics that bear out a pitcher's worth, but if you win 20 games with the New York Mets behind you, you have accomplished something, and that number is of some value.

Jason Vargas had more wins than Felix Hernandez.

WL doesn't mean anything.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Realistic? Sure. Good? Very unlikely. Phil's the only one on that list that really did that well in their 40s. Hough was alright, still above 4

Wakefield? lol
Don't know much about Haines
Never heard of Hoyt Williams, do you mean Hoyt Wilhelm?
Joe Neikro lost it after like 40.

The sample size is far too small anyway, it's hard to know how long a knuckleballer should be able to pitch. And the fact that Dickey's knuckleball is thrown harder than pretty much every other knuckleballer, and that he was born without a UCL, makes it a total toss-up.

I think most people hope he'll pitch into his mid-40s simply because he's such a likable guy.

 

[Windu]

Never heard of Hoyt Williams, do you mean Hoyt Wilhelm?.

heh yeah typo.

 

[CygnusXS]

Problem is that there really isn't such a thing as "excess of pitching".

Excessive in the sense of an increasingly marginal valuation. The more quality pitching a roster has access to, the less valuable further additional pitching is to that roster. For the Mets, more pitching assets have less additive value than new position player assets. There's no harm in acquiring more pitching for them, but there is also more good in trading what pitching assets they can get for position player ones instead.

 

[Windu]

yep you always want to create depth at a position so you can use it for injuries and trades.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Excessive in the sense of an increasingly marginal valuation. The more quality pitching a roster has access to, the less valuable further additional pitching is to that roster. For the Mets, more pitching assets have less additive value than new position player assets. There's no harm in acquiring more pitching for them, but there is also more good in trading what pitching assets they can get for position player ones instead.

I'd agree, if you knew that all of the pitching prospects would turn out to be quality major leaguers, but you don't know that. And since it is more difficult to predict pitching prospects than it is to predict hitting prospects, it's not an outrageous strategy to stockpile pitching prospects due to the likely attrition from flaming out or suffering injuries.

 

[Link]

Excessive in the sense of an increasingly marginal valuation. The more quality pitching a roster has access to, the less valuable further additional pitching is to that roster. For the Mets, more pitching assets have less additive value than new position player assets. There's no harm in acquiring more pitching for them, but there is also more good in trading what pitching assets they can get for position player ones instead.

Thank you.

 

[Syrinx]

Excessive in the sense of an increasingly marginal valuation. The more quality pitching a roster has access to, the less valuable further additional pitching is to that roster. For the Mets, more pitching assets have less additive value than new position player assets. There's no harm in acquiring more pitching for them, but there is also more good in trading what pitching assets they can get for position player ones instead.

I expressed my concern for the depth of the Mets farm in terms of position players about a page ago. I suppose my concern is just my great skepticism that most of the abundance of pitchers the Mets have won't work out. I'm VERY excited to see how Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler play out, but other than that, I guess I'm just skeptical that guys like Familia will amount to anything. Granted I don't pay very close attention to these guys, so I'm admittedly not basing this on much other than the Mets' .... less than sterling history with guys like these.

I'll say that if I had my choice, the Mets would trade Dickey, Thole, and maybe a guy like Duda for d'Arnaud and Syndergaard. That's probably a bit laughably optimistic, but I'd like to see the Mets improve both areas. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not particularly confident in our "excess" of pitching.

 

[CygnusXS]

I'd agree, if you knew that all of the pitching prospects would turn out to be quality major leaguers, but you don't know that. And since it is more difficult to predict pitching prospects than it is to predict hitting prospects, it's not an outrageous strategy to stockpile pitching prospects due to the likely attrition from flaming out or suffering injuries.

If anything, the TINSTAAPP theory is exactly why you should want to trade the pitching prospects you have for hitters as much as possible.

 

[Dominican Power]

Dickey in The AL Beast? That's a sad sight. The porch will giveth.

 

[cashman]

I do like Dickey a lot, but I understand that the Mets need to rebuild and his value will never be higher. I just don't like the pieces they are getting back around d'Arnaud. Maybe my expectations were too high.

You sound like the Phillies fans who wanted Profar + Ogando for Cliff Lee last year.

 

[The Frankman]

This whole saga has been quite a ride.

On one hand, I'd love to get another big arm like Syndergaard or (or and, if some of these rumors are true) Sanchez for the Mets to build around. Young, deep pitching staffs seem to be an absolute must nowadays, and since the Mets are in rebuilding mode, it seems even more critical.

But on the other hand, the Mets are pretty shallow in their farm as far as position players go. If that chart from BA earlier in the thread is accurate, Gavin Cecchini is the highest ranked position player in the farm, and though I admittedly don't know much about him, I'm not sure it's a good thing he's at the top of our farm as far as bats go. So, getting a guy like Gose or d'Arnaud would be big for the Mets to build the team around. The problem comes if they have to trade Davis for one of these guys, which almost seems self-defeating, though catchers of d'Arnaud's quality are pretty rare.

Hopefully it all works out. Excited to see what the Mets will make of this.

By the way, as a welcome to MLB Thread and Mets-GAF ... an obligatory WHO THE FUCK ARE YOU?

I know everyone here thinks I'm crazy, but if the reports are true, the prospects are pitchers. But the thing is, the Mets need position players, not pitchers.

The Mets can trade for that or sign a few bodies, we've seen him wait until after winter meetings to get the ball rolling more than one year.

There is when you've got absolutely no depth elsewhere.

...

 

[MC Safety]

Jason Vargas had more wins than Felix Hernandez.

WL doesn't mean anything.

I see you've adopted NeoGaf's all or nothing sensibilities.

Certainly the win-loss record of RA Dickey meant something to RA Dickey, the New York Mets, and the sportswriters who voted for him to win a Cy Young award.

 

[Maxim726X]

I feel the same way from the Mets' end. I've really soured on this deal. The more details that come out, the less appealing it sounds.

What the hell are you thinking.

I'm a Mets fan and this is absolutely a ridiculous deal. Thole is hot garbage, Dickey doesn't play into the team's future plans one bit.

In return, the Mets are getting their TWO top prospects. You're nuts if you don't think this is a fleecing. I was floundering, but I am now back in the pro-SA camp.

 

[CygnusXS]

I see you've adopted NeoGaf's all or nothing sensibilities.

Certainly the win-loss record of RA Dickey meant something to RA Dickey, the New York Mets, and the sportswriters who voted for him to win a Cy Young award.

That is a completely different argument than the one you made originally.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

I see you've adopted NeoGaf's all or nothing sensibilities.

Certainly the win-loss record of RA Dickey meant something to RA Dickey, the New York Mets, and the sportswriters who voted for him to win a Cy Young award.

dude, who's the better pitcher?

the guy who pitched 8 innings gives up one run and strikes out 15 no walks two hits and gets the loss

or

the guy who pitched 5 innings and gave up five runs and four walks and got the win?

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

I liliek the deal as it stand now. If it does go down like, im certain Sandy will then have another trade for an OF going. There are just too many RHP pitching in the system. We can afford to trade some for some cheap position help. However, if we somehow get Gose in the deal, that would be totally awesome.

 

[Sharp]

Excessive in the sense of an increasingly marginal valuation. The more quality pitching a roster has access to, the less valuable further additional pitching is to that roster. For the Mets, more pitching assets have less additive value than new position player assets. There's no harm in acquiring more pitching for them, but there is also more good in trading what pitching assets they can get for position player ones instead.

I don't really think this is true, unless you have so much pitching that you have five starters above replacement level. Until you get to that point, every single (starting) pitcher you acquire has the potential to give you 30+ starts, so investing in more net pitching is pure net gain with no diminishing returns at all. I don't think the Mets are at that point. In fact, I think there are very few teams in the league, if any, which are at that point.

 

[yankeehater]

You sound like the Phillies fans who wanted Profar + Ogando for Cliff Lee last year.

What Phillies fans wanted that? I havent seen of heard even one Phils fan that wanted them to trade Lee.

 

[aFIGurANT]

dude, who's the better pitcher?

the guy who pitched 8 innings gives up one run and strikes out 15 no walks two hits and gets the loss

or

the guy who pitched 5 innings and gave up five runs and four walks and got the win?

The guy who pitches complete game shutouts against teams like STL in September, letting the one-man offense and shite bullpen off the hook and salvaging some self-respect for his team's city? I vote for that guy regardless of his x-factor-future.

 

[Sanjuro]

The Mets long term plan is about twenty years in the making, so any of these prospects will be meaningless or dealt prior.

 

[cashman]

What Phillies fans wanted that? I havent seen of heard even one Phils fan that wanted them to trade Lee.

It was around last years trade deadline. There were a few of them that were acting like Link is right now, they only wanted them to trade Lee if they got a huge unrealistic overpay in prospects.

 

[Link]

It was around last years trade deadline. There were a few of them that were acting like Link is right now, they only wanted them to trade Lee if they got a huge unrealistic overpay in prospects.

You think d'Arnaud/Gose for Dickey/Flores/Familia is an unrealistic overpay? I just want to see the Mets get pieces they need while giving pieces they don't. With the current deal, they're giving away their major league lefty catcher and not getting any outfield help.

 

[Schattenjäger]

If they get Travis and Gose, it will be a nice fuck you Philly moment as they both came up in the Philly system

 

[Bauer Action Hour]

You think d'Arnaud/Gose for Dickey/Flores/Familia is an unrealistic overpay? I just want to see the Mets get pieces they need while giving pieces they don't. With the current deal, they're giving away their major league lefty catcher and not getting any outfield help.

Why are you so hung up on Josh Thole? He's not much of a defender and his offense cratered last year. Being a LHB doesn't mean anything when you can't hit.

 

[Link]

Why are you so hung up on Josh Thole? He's not much of a defender and his offense cratered last year. Being a LHB doesn't mean anything when you can't hit.

I'm more upset about not getting any outfielders back, but it just seems counterproductive to also give up a guy at the other position you need. Yes, I know we're getting d'Arnaud. I just feel they could have filled in more holes than this.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

I rather have Gose than the pitcher in the trade. Mets have no OF worth a dam in minors. Nimmo still too young

 

[Link]

I rather have Gose than the pitcher in the trade. Mets have no OF worth a dam in minors. Nimmo still too young

Exactly. Plus Buck will be 33 and has just one year left on his deal, which means we'll be right back to looking for a catcher and outfielders again next winter.

 

[Fenix]

Exactly. Plus Buck will be 33 and has just one year left on his deal, which means we'll be right back to looking for a catcher and outfielders again next winter.

Because backup catchers are so important and hard to find.

 

[Link]

Because backup catchers are so important and hard to find.

Might as well keep the cheap, young lefty that's still under team control for several years if it's a position of need. The devil you know, after all.

 

[Maxim726X]

I rather have Gose than the pitcher in the trade. Mets have no OF worth a dam in minors. Nimmo still too young

You take pitching every time... Especially someone with Syndegaard's ceiling. I love the deal, absolute steal IMO.

Might as well keep the cheap, young lefty that's still under team control for several years if it's a position of need. The devil you know, after all.

Thole is literally useless. A (low average) slap hitter with average defense. I don't even know why the Jays would ask for him in return considering the fact that he's so easily replaceable.