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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
I have no idea why the Phillies didn't do Brown for Soriano + lotta cash (basically the whole contract).

Brown is a failed prospect that nobody in the organization actually wants playing on the field. Soriano had a great season last year.
 

Zep

Banned
Failed prospect? Slow down, hes 25. He has some improving to do in both areas, but he has the skillsets to be a full-time player.
 
I really despise that trades are supposed to be evaluated after the prospects have panned out (or fizzled). It's an obvious failure of logic and a misunderstanding of how to evaluate probability.
It all comes down to what the known variables are vs the unknown variables. If the players in question suffer some sort of freak injury afterwards and are never the same, that's something that clearly nobody would've foreseen and using a results-based analysis is foolhardy.

But it's nearly impossible for fans to use a process-based evaluation of these sort of things because there are a lot of factors unknown to us outsiders that are clearly impacting the decision making of each front office. Even with the amount of scouting around, you'd think a team knows more about its prospects than any other organization. Perhaps they picked up on something recently about the prospect in question that tells them to unload him to another team before the perceived value of said prospect drops. Just because how a prospect turns out seems like an unknown to fans, it doesn't mean the team didn't have a detailed evaluation of him prior to the trade.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
FYI, d'Arnaud blew out his knee last season and has had issues with bulging disks. Not to say that will affect his future performance, but it's not comforting to hear.
 

Fenix

Member
FYI, d'Arnaud blew out his knee last season and has had issues with bulging disks. Not to say that will affect his future performance, but it's not comforting to hear.
The knee injury was because a second baseman came down on him while he was sliding. He was expected to be ready to play in the AFL but the club didn't want to start him up again. Not that he hasn't had injuries, but they've all been unrelated so far.
 

Fenix

Member
Per Richard Griffin:
Sources report they likely will not need the deadline.

As reflected in his hands-on style, Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos prefers to meet players face-to-face whenever an important crossroads arrives. Anthopoulos is believed to have met with Dickey at his home. Reportedly, the Jays have been able to agree on the extension with Dickey, likely for more than the $26 million, two years, he had been seeking from the Mets, but still a bargain for three years compared to recent free agents Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke and, assuming Dickey's higher expected return, than Ryan Dempster.
 

anthopoulos_alex_jays_640.jpg


AA beating the clock?
 
I guess we'll have a Cy Young celebration in Toronto at the opener?

Thanks Mets


Edit - Yea, its strange, considering how many of us in Toronto called Reyes, Johnson, Melky all not worth it at all when we thought there was no chance of the Jays ever getting them
 
Our dollar is better and from what I understand he'll pay less tax than living in NY!

You get like 2 cents on the dollar currently, and that number fluctuates. Just 5 years ago, you never saw the Canadian dollar on par with the U.S. dollar.

I'm not sure how Dickey would be paying less tax, either. Canadian taxes are generally considered much higher than those in the U.S. But I suppose it's possible that Dickey and other Americans who play abroad might be in some kind of special situation whereby they are excluded from paying certain Canadian/U.S. taxes.
 
Thanks for your 2 best prospects.

John Sickels of SB Nation Minor League Ball Top 10 Mets prospects. can see Top 20 at his site: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/16/3775304/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2013.
They gave us our number 1 and 3 prospect in the list.

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Should be acquired from Jays in the R.A. Dickey trade. He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he's the complete package. Don't expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It's possible.

3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Acquired in Dickey trade. He's ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him.

4) Wilmer Flores, 3B-2B, Grade B+: Borderline B. I am impressed with the progress he made last year developing his power, and he's still just 21. There are still significant questions about his defense and how his bat will fit into a lineup, but progress is progress.

5) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-: Strong performance in Low-A, impressive fastball/slider combination. Development of changeup, command, and durability concerns over cross-body mechanics lead to some questions about future role, but he could be a mid-rotation guy eventually. Another guy I'm laying a bet on. Maybe a bad idea when it comes to pitchers, but I'm operating on very little sleep tonight.

6) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Another hard-thrower with command issues and question about his role. I've been in the starter camp but am now leaning towards the bullpen. Even slight command improvement could make him significant contributor in 2013.

7) Luis Mateo, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Love the arm and he blew away the NY-P, however, he is in the age cohort of a college senior at age 22 so take the raw stats (2.45 ERA, 85/9 K/BB in 73 innings) with a grain of salt. That said, he throws quite hard and if his changeup comes around he is another mid-rotation arm for the future. If he repeats this at higher levels, he'll zoom up the lists quickly in '13 and this grade could look too low.

8) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B-: Very patient, showed some pop in the New York-Penn League, but his athleticism and speed weren't as good as advertised. Will need more power if he has to move to an outfield corner.

9) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B-: Baseball rat type, 2012 first rounder, good polish on defense, but hitting in rookie ball wasn't as good as I was led to expect when he was in high school. Young enough to get a lot better, of course.

10) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B-: Another product of the Mets pitching pipeline in Latin America, thrived in Low-A and High-A. Good command of low-90s fastball, and has a solid slider and improving changeup, throws strikes. Another potential mid-rotation starter.]
 

Fenix

Member
You get like 2 cents on the dollar currently, and that number fluctuates. Just 5 years ago, you never saw the Canadian dollar on par with the U.S. dollar.

I'm not sure how Dickey would be paying less tax, either. Canadian taxes are generally considered much higher than those in the U.S. But I suppose it's possible that Dickey and other Americans who play abroad might be in some kind of special situation whereby they are excluded from paying certain Canadian/U.S. taxes.
That's what I read, you don't have to pay certain federal/provincial taxes if you haven't been a resident for a certain amount of time. The combination of taxes was marginally less than paying the going rates living in NYC.

The dollar being better was just a loving jab.
 
Now we need everyone to stay healthy

lol

The Score ‏@theScore

In 2005 Jays sign AJ Burnett to a 5-year, $55M deal, 2012 Jays acquire Cy Young winner RA Dickey. Will cost team $30M over 3 years #Progress


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these days Burnett would have gotten at least 18 mil a year =/
 
Went to see Sabathia vs. Dickey at Citi this past season. I was really excited to see Dickey pitch. I'm crazy excited that he's a Jay now.
 
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