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MLB 2014-2015 Offseason |OT| Playoff Dreaming

J

jbug617

Banned
Panda in Boston.
B2rLT3lCUAAYPYc.jpg
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H

harSon

Banned
That Russell Martin contract is ridiculous Lol. I like the man, but that's an insane contract for an aging catcher. Good for him for making out like a bandit.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
Mo on local radio here in St. Louis. He stated that obviously w/ Taveras death, it created a long lasting effect. He knows that trading for a guy in his walk year is risky, but to him, Heyward is one of a very select few players that he'd be willing to take the risk on.
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fascinating-jason-heywardshelby-miller-swap/

Because of how quickly he got to the big leagues, Heyward is in line to hit free agency after his age-25 season, and he’s going to have roughly +25 career WAR when he reaches the open market. Barring a disastrous 2015 season, he’s going to get paid, and you can be certain that his agents will be pointing to the 13 year, $325 million deal that Giancarlo Stanton has agreed to as the new precedent. Sure, Heyward isn’t going to get 13/$325M, given the massive differences in power, but it seems likely that he’ll demand a deal that starts at 10 years and goes north of $200 million.

Robinson Cano got $240 million as a similarly valuable player entering his age-31 season; Heyward might not have Cano’s offensive track record, but he’s going to be selling his prime years, and the deal won’t extend into the period of his career where you’d expect him to essentially be worthless. If the Cardinals want to lock up Heyward before he gets to free agency, it’s probably going to take something like the contract they refused to give Albert Pujols. Maybe they might be able get him to take a slight pre-free agent discount and get him for 9/$200M or something in that range, but let’s dispel the notion that the Cardinals are going to be able to sign Heyward for anything other than a mountain of cash.

The team definitely has the means to take on a contract like that. They only have $73 million in committed contracts for next season, and Matt Holliday‘s contract expires at the end of the 2016 season, so they have the flexibility to make Heyward a franchise-player type offer. And they do have a history of acquiring players on the cusp of free agency, only to convince them to stick around instead, but stretching for a single player the way Heyward will require would be something new for this front office.

For now, this has to be viewed as a rental. A rental with a chance to purchase, perhaps, but this isn’t a trade-and-sign deal like we’ve seen with the R.A. Dickey or Martin Prado trades the last few years. The Cardinals are getting a great right fielder, but they’re only guaranteed to get him for one year, and then it’s either a really large long-term commitment or settling for the compensation pick that comes from letting a premium free agent walk away at year’s end. There’s a non-zero chance that the long-term return on this deal for St. Louis will be minimal.

But the short-term upgrade is huge, especially if they flip Peter Bourjos for a starting pitcher to replace Miller, which shouldn’t be too terribly difficult.
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The long-term cost will essentially boil down to what you believe Shelby Miller is. Is he a top-flight young pitcher, the guy who has produced +6 WAR by runs allowed in 370 big league innings, and just turned 24? Or is he a two-pitch tease, overrated by run prevention, heading for a short-term crash when his mediocre peripherals catch up with him? A strong case could be made for both outcomes.

Miller throws a lot of fastballs up in the zone, and as Eno noted through multiple conversations with pitchers this year, high fastballs can produce some terrific results, often inducing a lot of useless contact that isn’t captured in FIP-type metrics. If Miller’s approach to pitching up with a good fastball makes him a guy who can sustain a BABIP in the .270-.280 range, the underwhelming strikeout rates become a lot less problematic. If you’re a Braves fan who wants to be excited about this deal, here’s the first ~400 IP comparison you want to use: Matt Cain.

Cain was always better at home run prevention than Miller, but the template is similar, and it’s certainly possible that Miller is a (somewhat worse) new version of the Cain skillset. If Miller’s FIP-beating ways prove sustainable to a significant degree, picking up four discounted years of a quality young arm is a very solid return for a single year of Heyward, especially if the Braves don’t see themselves as strong contenders in 2015.

But Cain is notable because most pitchers can’t do what he’s done, and not every young hurler who posts a low BABIP for 400 innings is definitely going to follow in his footsteps. Here’s another, less-rosy comparison for Miller, again with career performance through the equivalent of two full seasons: Jeremy Hellickson

A couple of years ago, the arguments for Hellickson were the same as they are for Miller today. Maybe he’s just good at inducing a lot of popups, and because he’s a flyball guy, he’s always going to run lower than average BABIPs, so he’s underrated by metrics that focus only on walks, strikeouts, and home runs or ground balls. Hellickson managed to keep things going through age-25, and then promptly fell apart, pitching poorly and getting injured. The Rays just shipped him to Arizona for two lower level prospects rather than bet on him returning to prior form.

More often than not, guys who post big gaps between their ERAs and their FIPs regress towards the latter, which is why FIP and xFIP work for most pitchers. It doesn’t mean Miller is definitely not an outlier, but he probably isn’t at outlier to the degree that he’s been so far, and he’s probably more of an okay pitcher than a very good one.

But even four years of an okay young arm is pretty valuable. After all, we’re looking at league average starters making $10-$12 million per year in free agency, and Miller will a little more than the league minimum this year, with three below-market arbitration years to follow. Even if Miller is more of a solid arm than a future ace, the Braves are getting a lot more quantity of value here, and they’re allocating it into the years where they think they might be more able to contend.

And Miller isn’t the only thing they’re getting. Tyrell Jenkins was a first round pick a couple of years ago, and while he’s battled arm problems since, Kiley McDaniel remains somewhat intrigued by his potential.
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M

Malvingt2

Member
To: MY ATLANTA, GEORGIA

Braves fans, coaches, teammates, #BravesCountry

While it may not have worked out long term I’m very blessed to have played at HOME for the same Organization I was invested in as kid growing up in McDonough, Ga. Played for The Great Bobby Cox, said farewell to a first ballot Hall Of Famer Chipper Jones after an unbelievable career. I made many great friends and became as close as family with most. Thank you for that. Thank you for applauding my effort and passion for the game of baseball. Thank you for acknowledging my love for rockin The “A” on my work hat. Been a pleasure to have called HOME my workplace. As we part ways know that the memories will be carried with me for the rest. Reaching out to say that I won’t forget where I’m from and you’ll always see me playing the game I love with passion and heart. Knowing and appreciating the fact I had the pleasure of creating heartfelt memories with so many people the past 5 years. Thank you again for your heart, thank you for the motivation and excitement.

THANK YOU for the LOVE

22
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:(
 
K

KidA Seven

Member
Doesn't Otani pitch in the next exhibition match? Heard he wears #16 because Nomo wore that for the Dodgers.


He's destined for the Dodgers.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
It begins. First it was Gammons saying the Yanks were watching the Lester situation and now Heyman.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...ir-low-key-winter-plan-and-shoot-for-scherzer

So it shouldn't surprise anyone that there's a chance that the Yankees and Scherzer may start becoming tied together, at least in terms of talk. It's a match that may make sense.

Nothing has been decided yet, but it seems the Yankees may revisit their initial instinct to largely sit this winter out, at least when it comes to baseball's biggest free agents. They still may do that, but if there's one name that seems to intrigue them it's very likely Scherzer, baseball's leader in wins (55) and strikeouts (723) among all pitchers over the past three seasons.

But at this point, a week after the general manager meetings, it is somewhat unusual how little is known about Scherzer's market. You've heard of the mystery team. This is the mystery market.
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Article goes on to say that Yanks touched base with Boras in regards to Scherzer.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
I want to see the Yankees trade for Brian Wilson just so he has to shave that beard.


I do wonder how Sox fans will react if Lester goes to NY. Will he be a "trader" like Damon and Jacoby, ignoring the fact that they sent him packing in exchange for an OF that can barely even OBP .300.
 
S

Sanjuro

Member
Ninja Scooter said:
I want to see the Yankees trade for Brian Wilson just so he has to shave that beard.


I do wonder how Sox fans will react if Lester goes to NY. Will he be a "trader" like Damon and Jacoby, ignoring the fact that they sent him packing in exchange for an OF that can barely even OBP .300.
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Someone would wish for his cancer to come back I'm sure.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Braves meeting with Lester this week. Lester lives in Georgia in the offseason.

Lester timeline so far:

Meeting with Boston first
Meeting with Cubs today
Meeting with Braves later this week.
 
O

Opiate

Member
I like the Heyward trade from the perspective of the cardinals. It accomplishes multiple things at once: fills the right field hole and makes room for Carlos Martinez to join the rotation. It also puts the cardinals in the position that the only possible big piece they'll want for the rest of the off season would be another pitcher, and the market for pitchers is much better than the market for right fielders. The cardinals position players at this point are all above average for their position -- the only position we want to fill is a power bat off the bench, which certainly matters but isn't nearly as difficult or important as having a good starting shortstop or right fielder.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
More details on Stanton's deal.

It is heavily backloaded, which in turn, gives the Marlins more flexibility to add to the roster and spend (lol). Essentially, in the first six years of the deal, he'll make $107 mil. After, its $218 left (after the opt out).
 
S

Syrinx

Member
nemss said:
More details on Stanton's deal.

It is heavily backloaded, which in turn, gives the Marlins more flexibility to add to the roster and spend (lol). Essentially, in the first six years of the deal, he'll make $107 mil. After, its $218 left (after the opt out).
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So after six years, he could choose to opt out and hit the open market, or just choose the $218 million the Marlins would pay him and stay in his contract?

Marlins better hope he rakes over the next six years. I wouldn't want to be stuck with that contract should he choose to not opt out.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
nemss said:
More details on Stanton's deal.

It is heavily backloaded, which in turn, gives the Marlins more flexibility to add to the roster and spend (lol). Essentially, in the first six years of the deal, he'll make $107 mil. After, its $218 left (after the opt out).
Click to expand...
Sooo basically the marlins will try to trade him after about 5 yrs or he will opt out.
 
L

Little Green Yoda

Member
nemss said:
More details on Stanton's deal.

It is heavily backloaded, which in turn, gives the Marlins more flexibility to add to the roster and spend (lol). Essentially, in the first six years of the deal, he'll make $107 mil. After, its $218 left (after the opt out).
Click to expand...
So about $18M a year before the opt out, about $31M a year afterwards.

What are the odds that he wouldn't be able to land something better than a 7/218 contract as a FA in his early 30s? There's a non-zero chance he gets hurt, he declines early, or the market changes in the next 6 years. Probably still worth having him at a below market rate during the start of his prime.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
Windu said:
Sooo basically the marlins will try to trade him after about 5 yrs or he will opt out.
Click to expand...

I believe it has a NTC, but yeah. I expect Loria at some point over the next 6 years to "go all in" on one year, then if it doesn't work, we'll see Stanton basically be pushed to use his opt out.

Some more break down on the deal:

Stanton will earn just $6.5MM in 2015, $9MM in 2016 and $14.5MM in 2017 before earning $77MM total over the following three seasons. In other words, should he opt out of his deal, he’ll have received $107MM over six years (an AAV of $17.83MM) and be walking away from seven years and $218MM (an AAV of $31.14MM).
 
P

Purple Cheeto

Member
harSon said:
That Russell Martin contract is ridiculous Lol. I like the man, but that's an insane contract for an aging catcher. Good for him for making out like a bandit.
Click to expand...

Based on market rates, for $82 million, the Jays are paying Martin to be worth something on the order of 10 – 11 wins. Historically, for catchers between the ages of 29 – 31, Martin’s been around the 85th percentile. For those catchers over the next five years, through age 36, the 85th percentile has been worth about 10 – 11 wins. It’s simple, but it works. If you prefer something Martin-specific, let’s begin with his 3.8-WAR projection for next season. Dock him six-tenths of a win each year, and in the end he’d have been worth 13 wins. Dock him 0.75 wins each year, and in the end he’d have been worth 11.5 wins. Pitch-framing value isn’t included, here. It appears the Jays have committed to a reasonable contract. No reason to think this is a huge mistake; no reason to think this is a huge awesome deal for the team. It falls within 10% or so of a good idea for both sides, and that’s the most that can be said about that.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-commit-to-playoff-race-sign-russell-martin/

I don't think I'd call that making out like a bandit.
 
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