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MLB Off-season Thread 2015-2016 IOTI Back to the Future was a lie

W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
jakncoke said:
Yeah but how many people drafted never even made it to AAA level. I would curious to see the fail rate of nfl and mlb. Both seem pretty difficult to get to and also stay. If i remember the average career of a nfl player is something like 4.5 years or something, does anyone have the numbers on mlb once they made it to the big leagues?
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Baseball lore is littered with one-game wonders, from Moonlight Graham, whose brief stint in the outfield for the New York Giants in 1905 was immortalized in “Field of Dreams,” to Larry Yount, whose major league career amounted to warming up as the announced relief pitcher for the Houston Astros in 1971 when his elbow popped.

Then there are baseball’s Iron Men, like Pete Rose, who played in 3,562 games; Lou Gehrig, who filled in for Wally Pipp at first base and went on to play 2,130 consecutive games; Nolan Ryan, who played in 27 seasons; Eddie Collins and Rickey Henderson, who celebrated silver anniversaries; and Minnie Minoso and Nick Altrock, whose careers spanned portions of five decades.

But while no player would ever admit to being merely average, how long a career can the average major leaguer expect to have?

After studying the 5,989 position players who began their careers between 1902 and 1993 and who played 33,272 years of major league baseball, three demographers have come up with an answer: On average, a rookie can expect to play major league baseball for 5.6 years.

Their study, which is being published in the August issue of Population Research and Policy Review, also found that one in five position players would play only a single season.

Fewer than half of all rookies remain long enough to play a fifth year. And only about 1 percent of players last 20 seasons or more.


Cognizant that pitchers are more prone to injuries and have volatile careers, the authors, William Witnauer of the State University of New York at Buffalo and Richard Rogers and Jarron Saint Onge of the University of Colorado, excluded them from the study. They also excluded 618 players who made their debut after Sept. 1 and played only that season.

The authors found advantages in starting a major league career early. The probability of ending a career after one year is 10 percent for players starting at age 20, but rises to 13 percent for players who start at 21, and 36 percent for players who start at 28.

The probability of leaving the league is 20 percent in the first year, but drops to 11 percent or greater in every subsequent year. While a rookie can expect to play 5.6 years, a player in his third season can expect to play six additional years.

“Whereas a normal work career typically involves a gradual ascent followed by a slow decline, baseball careers are characterized by rapid ascent followed by rapid decline, or more accurately as an inevitably short time on a very slippery slope,” the study said. “The explanation lies in baseball’s extremely high selectivity.”

The study said careers had been lengthened by free agency and league expansion.

A rookie could expect to play 4.3 years in what the authors call the Early Era, between 1902 and 1945, 6.47 years in the Golden Age (1946-68) and 6.85 years in the Modern Era. The study does not include players whose careers began later than 1993, because many are still playing.

“One- and two-year careers were more common in the earlier parts of the century,” Rogers said, but gains in longevity have not been significant — from a median of three years in the Early Era to six years in the Modern Era.

“We can speculate that career length has increased because of better overall health, longer life expectancies, better sports training and medicine, better scouting and recruitment, higher salaries, higher prestige, league expansions, and fewer social and economic disruptions,” Rogers said.

Moreover, the authors wrote, the length of a career can be affected by other factors, including the willingness of teams to pay for better players; a player’s personal attributes, which might compensate for lackluster performance; and injuries, scandal and other personal problems.

Unlike most other careers, professional players “know (but do not necessarily accept) that the role is temporary, exit is often involuntary, and the elite status conferred by the role is difficult to achieve after,” the authors said
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html?referer=&_r=0
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
XiaNaphryz said:
If you want that in a US game, you'll have to go with the new Power Pros coming!

http://www.operationsports.com/news...ps4ps3vita-pro-yakyuu-spirits-ace-iosandroid/

1443288391-media.jpg


Pretty sure the US releases back in 07 and 08 had some.
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Best baseball game of last gen. No doubt.

256px-MLB_Power_Pros_resized.jpg
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
It's a shame the history Cueto and the Cardinals have. He'd be a good fit for them (especially with Brayan Pena as backup catcher, who Cueto likes a lot)

I'll settle for Mike Leake and/or Mark Buehrle I guess :lol
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
Carpe Libertatem said:
It's a shame the history Cueto and the Cardinals have. He'd be a good fit for them (especially with Brayan Pena as backup catcher, who Cueto likes a lot)

I'll settle for Mike Leake and/or Mark Buehrle I guess :lol
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Never say never. I'd be shocked, but I also never expected the Cards to sign Peralta when they did.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
D-Backs are Leake favs. D-Backs need to find the money to fit him in.

#DBacks hold advantage on Leake if they can find room in their budget. Lives in Phoenix area, wants to stay at home, sources say.
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C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
nemss said:
Never say never. I'd be shocked, but I also never expected the Cards to sign Peralta when they did.
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This is true, and LaRue has said that he doesn't harbor any bad feelings towards Cueto. But can you imagine the fan reaction to Cueto? Short of trading for Ryan Braun or Brandon Phillips, I can't think of a worse reaction :lol

Mo was on the radio saying that they're comfortable going with Cooney, Lyons, or Marco at the beginning of the year. I'm... somewhat okay with that, given the cost of starting pitching on the market. Mostly just unsure of innings for those guys (and our rotation has pretty serious injury risk)
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
Carpe Libertatem said:
This is true, and LaRue has said that he doesn't harbor any bad feelings towards Cueto. But can you imagine the fan reaction to Cueto? Short of trading for Ryan Braun or Brandon Phillips, I can't think of a worse reaction :lol

Mo was on the radio saying that they're comfortable going with Cooney, Lyons, or Marco at the beginning of the year. I'm... somewhat okay with that, given the cost of starting pitching on the market. Mostly just unsure of innings for those guys (and our rotation has pretty serious injury risk)
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Since the Cards missed on Price, and from the way it sounds, weren't interested in Grienke, or Shark, I think their plan B is Heyward and Davis. Then package in a deal for an innings eater pitcher.

Going to be interesting over the winter meetings, especially with almost all the big pitching pieces off the table.

Speaking of which, predict your crazy trades. Here's mine:

Cards land Longoria and Drew Smyly for Adams, Wong.

Angels trade for Cargo.

Yankees acquire Shelby Miller
 
L

Little Green Yoda

Member
nemss said:
Since the Cards missed on Price, and from the way it sounds, weren't interested in Grienke, or Shark, I think their plan B is Heyward and Davis. Then package in a deal for an innings eater pitcher.

Going to be interesting over the winter meetings, especially with almost all the big pitching pieces off the table.
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Hopefully. It's going to be so disappointing if no major moves are made at all.

The Shelby for Heyward trade looks worse by the day.
 
R

rando14

Member
Ninja Scooter said:
In this market, selling high on Felix would be the smart thing to do.
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Compared to other aces his contract is pretty great

I don't know if we'd even be able to if we wanted to, he freakin loves it here and he has a NTC iirc

EDIT:

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 43s43 seconds ago
Dodgers are working on iwakuma


STOP IT, GO AWAY DOYERS
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
jbug617 said:
Red Sox getting hit on Kelly and Miley. Sox are looking for bullpen arms.
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Joe Kelly would be a great bullpen arm.

Maybe the Red Sox find someone who values him as a starter, but if I were them I'd just move him to the bullpen permanently. Always pitched better in the pen when he was with the Cards
 
Z

zroid

Banned
DoctorWho said:
There is something seriously wrong with the fact that they didn't even make the effort. This plus AA saying he would have given it a shot makes it all the more frustrating.


The effort alone would have meant something.
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I get how you feel, but personally I'm not a fan of those kinds of hollow acts. To me, a low ball offer is more an example of a bumbling front office that doesn't understand the market realities than anything else.

Rather than draw up all the paperwork required for a contract offer, perhaps the effort is better spent elsewhere.
 
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