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[CygnusXS]

Replacing Paul Janish, a guy with 2 hits and hit a line drive out, with Tyler Pastornicky in 2-run game in the 8th.

Wat.

EDIT: And promptly GIDPs. And now the Braves have a defensive liability at SS. Great move.

First as tragedy, then as farce.

 

[The Frankman]

GO MEST

My bad, who the fuck are you?

AYYYYYYYYYYYYY

 

[Windu]

Replacing Paul Janish, a guy with 2 hits and hit a line drive out, with Tyler Pastornicky in 2-run game in the 8th.

Wat.

EDIT: And promptly GIDPs. And now the Braves have a defensive liability at SS. Great move.

should have PH Bourn and then put in Pastronicky at SS in the top half.

 

[yankeehater]

You are missing the fact that A) The Phillies have to drastically improve their team over what they have to be competitive this year, B) they don't really have a ton of money to work with to that end, especially after this Hamels extension, C) their farm is mediocre-to-okay, which will make trading for players to improve the team difficult, and D) Ruben Amaro is a complete idiot.

You couldnt be more wrong about this. A lot of next year will depend if Doc and Cliff rebound, but if they do they will need a 3rd baseman and 1 or 2 outfielders depending on how Dow looks the rest of this year. You say they wont have much to spend but they are taking Victorino, Pence, Blanton, Polanco, and Schinder off the books, their ownership has also said they are willing to go over the luxury tax threshold next year. I dont give a fuck about their farm system, the Phils are going to add through FA, but I have no doubt if it comes down to the deadline and they need something Amaro has some pieces he could move. Your last point is laughable, Amaro has traded for several big time players and also done a great job of signing FAs all while building a WS winner and 5 time divison champ.

 

[Enron]

Darkside never quit on any of his teams. Even with the Magic going through Hell with The Dwightmare and his favorite player gone, he's still a fan of the team. If that's not true fandom I don't know what is.

Where did I say I quit on the Rangers? I just said the Rangers are toast for the near future and the window for a WS is shut now. You have an odd definition of "quit"

Also, darkside quit the Mest.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

Where did I say I quit on the Rangers? I just said the Rangers are toast for the near future and the window for a WS is shut now. You have an odd definition of "quit"

Angels trading for Greinke pretty much sealed that window this year.

 

[CygnusXS]

Your last point is laughable, Amaro has traded for several big time players and also done a great job of signing FAs all while building a WS winner and 5 time divison champ.

Too good.

 

[yankeehater]

Too good.

This is the reply of someone who cant refute what was said.

 

[The Frankman]

Where did I say I quit on the Rangers? I just said the Rangers are toast for the near future and the window for a WS is shut now. You have an odd definition of "quit"

Also, darkside quit the Mest.

Darkside then said he was never a true fan if I am correct.

Too good.

no comment.

 

[CygnusXS]

This is the reply of someone who cant refute what was said.

A) I'm not even in this argument, just spectating.
B) The Howard Extension. I really don't need to say anything else. And if that doesn't convince you, then we're just speaking entirely different languages.

 

[Enron]

Angels trading for Greinke pretty much sealed that window this year.

Uhm, no. Look at the Rangers staff, and look at the all the injuries. THAT is what sealed the window.

 

[yankeehater]

A) I'm not even in this argument, just spectating.
B) The Howard Extension. I really don't need to say anything else. And if that doesn't convince you, then we're just speaking entirely different languages.

That was one move, just because that didnt work out it doesnt undo all the good moves he has made. Plus if he had let Howard become a FA he would have had to give him a 10 year deal like Albert got.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

Uhm, no. Look at the Rangers staff, and look at the all the injuries. THAT is what sealed the window.

Yea that too. Just saying though,what a starting 4 they have. Even if Texas guys were healthy, no match.

 

[Corran Horn]

God I hate Grateful dead night. Bill Walton is there -.-

 

[Macattk15]

That was one move, just because that didnt work out it doesnt undo all the good moves he has made. Plus if he had let Howard become a FA he would have had to give him a 10 year deal like Albert got.

Amauro traded Cliff Lee to us for straight trash.

 

[Windu]

That was one move, just because that didnt work out it doesnt undo all the good moves he has made. Plus if he had let Howard become a FA he would have had to give him a 10 year deal like Albert got.

Or he could have let him walk and got a better player.

 

[rando14]

Hooray for Beavan, >5 era

 

[Enron]

lol Ryan Howard

*doesn't feel so bad now*

 

[cashman]

Yea that too. Just saying though,what a starting 4 they have. Even if Texas guys were healthy, no match.

I don't see how greinke makes up a 5 game difference in two months.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

 

[Macattk15]

Hooray for Beavan, >5 era

Been decent since coming back from Tacoma. Around a 3 ERA.

Minus that pitch to Rasmus.

 

[Malo]

Has Howard's contract extension kicked in yet?

 

[rekameohs]

Yea that too. Just saying though,what a starting 4 they have. Even if Texas guys were healthy, no match.

I know Haren is a pretty good pitcher, but man oh man Corbin, Skaggs, and Saunders were one hell of a haul for him. I'd much rather have that trio.

 

[CygnusXS]

Plus if he had let Howard become a FA he would have had to give him a 10 year deal like Albert got.

Um, no. If he let Howard reach FA, and then gave him a Pujols contract, EVEN IF Howard hadn't destroyed his foot right before the end of the season, that would make Amaro a first class moron.

 

[Windu]

hey shitty team in Pennsylvania, please win.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Prado needs a day off tomorrow. He was awful in every area of the game tonight.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

I know Haren is a pretty good pitcher, but man oh man Corbin, Skaggs, and Saunders was one hell of a haul for him. I'd much rather have that trio.

Why was Corbin scratched from his last start?
Oh Shit, RUBEN TEJADA POWAH!!! first homer in 629 ABs.

 

[rando14]

Been decent since coming back from Tacoma. Around a 3 ERA.

Minus that pitch to Rasmus.

Yeah that's true, his last outings have been solid.

Hope villanueva craps the bed tonight

 

[Windu]

Prado needs a day off tomorrow. He was awful in every area of the game tonight.

he has been awful the entire month.

 

[rekameohs]

Why was Corbin scratched from his last start?

So he could pitch his gem in the majors today.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Has Howard's contract extension kicked in yet?

Yes. This was the first season. Runs through 2016.

 

[Malo]

I know Haren is a pretty good pitcher, but man oh man Corbin, Skaggs, and Saunders was one hell of a haul for him. I'd much rather have that trio.

I'm sure you're happy Cashman refused to include Joba in the trade proposal for Haren. What a crappy haul that would have been.

Yes. This was the first season. Runs through 2016.

lol good luck with that phillies

 

[yankeehater]

Or he could have let him walk and got a better player.

LOL at this. When he resigned he was one of the best power hitters in all of baseball and still young. No one would have let him walk and even if he did there is no chance he could have signed someone better. Look at the deal Albert and Prince got and they were both older then Howard when they signed.

 

[rekameohs]

Yeah Ruben Tejada!

 

[Windu]

LOL at this. When he resigned he was one of the best power hitters in all of baseball and still young. No one would have let him walk and even if he did there is no chance he could have signed someone better. Look at the deal Albert and Prince got and they were both older then Howard when they signed.

true he did sign before his decline (well right about the same time he turned shitty) but he was under contract already for two more years.

Even without the decline that contract is hilarious, he was a 3-4 win player when good, that is not worth 25 mil.

 

[cashman]

I still think Texas wins the division.

 

[JABEE]

WIN

 

[harSon]

Man, the Reds never freaking lose, it's ridiculous.

We can sweep them and we'll still only be tied for first :| Thank God both Votto and Phillips are going to be out for the series (I think?), I'm pretty confident about the series outside of McDonald pitching. Dude's an absolute chump lately.

Hopefully Ludwick feels sorry for shittin' the bed last season after being traded to the Pirates and decides to put down his hot bat. If he tears us up... I swear to God....

 

[Windu]

In the four seasons from 2006-2009, Ryan Howard has accumulated 16 wins, according to http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/h/howar001.htm . If we look at all players born since Babe Ruth, for the same age group as Ryan Howard, that puts him in the top 200 players, along with teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins.

Ryan Howard was already signed for the 2010 and 2011 seasons before he signed his latest extension. Therefore, we are looking to see what happens to the great player in the third through seventh seasons following his established performance level. Focusing on the 178 great players born between 1895 and 1971, the list is headed by Willie Mays at 37 wins, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, each at 36 wins. Here’s how these great players aged:

Age 27 to 30: 21 wins
Age 31 to 32: 9 wins
Age 33 to 37: 11 wins
Age 38 onwards: 2 wins

This does not look good for the Phillies. While a win costs about 4 to 5 million dollars today, each win in the 2012-2016 season will cost somewhere around 7 million dollars. Granting a five-year extension, two years out, to a typical star player should be worth around 77 million$, not 125 million dollars.

Perhaps Howard is a special case. We already gave him a special consideration, seeing that the group average was 21 wins at age 27 to 30, while he was at 16. We’ll give him the following two further considerations: let’s set the minimum win level for the previous four seasons at 20 (which brings us down to 87 players), and a minimum win level of 8 wins for the next two seasons (which implies that we expect Ryan Howard to be healthy and very productive for the next two seasons). That leaves us with 61 players, with the following results:

Age 27 to 30: 25 wins
Age 31 to 32: 12 wins
Age 33 to 37: 16 wins
Age 38 onwards: 4 wins

We are being extremely generous to Ryan Howard with our comparables. We’ve got the four prior seasons totalling 25 wins (compared to the 16 for Howard’s last four seasons) and 12 wins for the two upcoming seasons (of which Howard has played only one month so far). And under those very unrestrictive parameters, the expectation is to get 16 wins for the five years that Howard signed. And if we increase the cost of a win to 8 million dollars per win, that’s 128 million dollars for five years.

Therefore, in order to justify this contract, we have to take the most optimistic position we possibly can on every parameter we have considered in order to justify the extension as a fair deal. And when you are that optimistic, you probably have a big chance of it blowing up in your face.

Given that we’ve shown that, on average, this deal was not good, the question remains: what are the odds the deal will turn out to be good? It’s a bad deal to buy a lottery ticket… unless you are the winner. Looking at a more restrictive pool of players (minimum 16 wins in the previous four years, at least 4 wins in the next two years, paying 7 million dollars per win), we have a total of 161 players in our pool (who averaged 22 wins in the 4 previous seasons), of which 20% generated at least 18 wins in the five years that we are focused on. And generating at least 18 wins is worth at least 125 million dollars. The odds are therefore as follows:

50% chance of deal being worth at least 10 wins (for an average of 18 wins)
25% chance of deal being worth 4 to 9 wins (for an average of 7 wins, or a value of 50 million$)
25% chance of deal being worth 3 or fewer wins (losing over 100 million dollars in value)

This means the Phillies have a 50/50 shot of either breaking even or facing an albatross. Ideally, you want a 50/50 shot of having a good deal and 50/50 on a bad deal. And that’s presuming that Ryan Howard was a superstar who averaged 22 wins, not 16.

***

There’s 101 players born since Babe Ruth, limited by the following:
- 2400 or more PA in the 27-30 age group
- at least 16 wins in the 27-30 age group
- at least 4 wins in the 31-32 age group

The totals for these 101:
- 22 wins at age 27-30
- 10 wins at age 31-32
- 11 wins at age 33-37

Here’s everyone born since Mike Schmidt (29 of those 101 players), ordered by best to worst at age 33-37:

27-30   31-32   33-37   Player Name
32	17	34	Schmidt	Mike
27	19	22	Henderson	Rickey
20	10	21	Palmeiro	Rafael
20	11	21	Sosa	Sammy
35	11	20	Boggs	Wade
16	9	18	Butler	Brett
16	14	18	Thome	Jim
27	6	18	Yount	Robin
17	10	17	Gwynn	Tony

19	15	16	Biggio	Craig
21	14	16	Ripken	Cal
28	13	15	Bagwell	Jeff
24	6	12	Murray	Eddie
28	12	10	Giambi	Jason
21	11	10	Hernandez	Keith
22	8	10	Thomas	Frank
21	10	10	Williams	Bernie
22	10	9	Trammell	Alan
18	6	8	McGriff	Fred
16	8	8	White	Devon

17	6	7	Salmon	Tim
18	10	6	Puckett	Kirby
22	8	3	Belle	Albert
30	7	3	Griffey	Ken
19	8	2	Cirillo	Jeff
16	5	2	McReynolds	Kevin
19	10	1	Murphy	Dale
16	7	0	Vaughn	Mo
18	6	-1	Barfield	Jesse

So, you have a one-third chance of being Jim Thome, a one-third chance of being Frank Thomas, and a one-third chance of being Mo Vaughn.

Ryan Howard was paid like he had a 100% chance of being Jim Thome.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-howards-extension/

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

You couldnt be more wrong about this. A lot of next year will depend if Doc and Cliff rebound, but if they do they will need a 3rd baseman and 1 or 2 outfielders depending on how Dow looks the rest of this year. You say they wont have much to spend but they are taking Victorino, Pence, Blanton, Polanco, and Schinder off the books, their ownership has also said they are willing to go over the luxury tax threshold next year. I dont give a fuck about their farm system, the Phils are going to add through FA, but I have no doubt if it comes down to the deadline and they need something Amaro has some pieces he could move. Your last point is laughable, Amaro has traded for several big time players and also done a great job of signing FAs all while building a WS winner and 5 time divison champ.

1. yes, IF doc and Cliff Lee bounce back. maybe they don't. where are you then? oh, no farm system to rebuild from within.. woops. 1 or 2 outfielders? guess you'll have to give lots and lots of Money to someone like a Granderson or Hamilton. if you can match the Yankees that is. seeing as your team is now saddled with the Howard and Hammels contract, they are constrained.

 

[vas_a_morir]

Man, the Reds never freaking lose, it's ridiculous.

We can sweep them and we'll still only be tied for first :| Thank God both Votto and Phillips are going to be out for the series (I think?), I'm pretty confident about the series outside of McDonald pitching. Dude's an absolute chump lately.

Hopefully Ludwick feels sorry for shittin' the bed last season after being traded to the Pirates and decides to put down his hot bat. If he tears us up... I swear to God....

Unless I missed a big announcement today, If Phillips is still DTD, he will be ready to go for Friday. As for Votto, I think he's a week away if they feel like rushing him.

 

[Malo]

1. yes, IF doc and Cliff Lee bounce back. maybe they don't. where are you then? oh, no farm system to rebuild from within.. woops. 1 or 2 outfielders? guess you'll have to give lots and lots of Money to someone like a Granderson or Hamilton. if you can match the Yankees that is. seeing as your team is now saddled with the Howard and Hammels contract, they are constrained.

Granderson has a club option for next year that will definitely be picked up.

 

[clemenx]

Speaking of Howard...

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

Granderson has a club option for next year that will definitely be picked up.

oops, forgot that. so it's just Hamilton then right? who are the other premier FAs then?
fake edit: that chart says what we're all thinking.

 

[yankeehater]

1. yes, IF doc and Cliff Lee bounce back. maybe they don't. where are you then? oh, no farm system to rebuild from within.. woops. 1 or 2 outfielders? guess you'll have to give lots and lots of Money to someone like a Granderson or Hamilton. if you can match the Yankees that is. seeing as your team is now saddled with the Howard and Hammels contract, they are constrained.

If Doc and Cliff dont bounce back then the Phils are totally fucked and no amount of minor league players would help that. They are not going to be able to trade for 2 top pitchers, and no way could you ever count on 2 rookie pitchers leading a team to a WS.

 

[darkside31337]

Granderson has a club option for next year that will definitely be picked up.

Who would pay $13 million for a .245 hitter?

Spoiler

/sarc

 

[rekameohs]

oops, forgot that. so it's just Hamilton then right? who are the other premier FAs then?
fake edit: that chart says what we're all thinking.

BJ Upton's the next biggest OF name that I can think of. Next year looks pretty sparse after the huge past offseason.

 

[Dmncnby2k9]

Top of my head I know: Hamilton, Melky Cabrera, Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher and Bourn.

 

[Windu]

BJ Upton's the next biggest OF name that I can think of. Next year looks pretty sparse after the huge past offseason.

Bourn

 

[Little Green Yoda]

I think I miss TLR managing the Cards.