Why the Braves could win their arbitration case against Craig Kimbrel and trade him mid-season
The last time the Atlanta Braves went to an arbitration hearing, it was with closer John Rocker before the 2001 season. The loud-mouthed, probably-bigoted, bad boy closer thought he deserved $2.98 million in 2001 for his 2.89 ERA and 24 saves in the 2000 season. The Braves thought he was worth $1.9 million. In the end, arbitrators Jack Clarke, Jerome Ross, and Elliot Shriftman agreed with the Braves and set Rocker's salary at $1.9 million for 2001.
The Braves traded Rocker, in the midst of a 3.08 ERA, 19-save campaign, to the Cleveland Indians mid-season on June 22, 2001 along with Troy Cameron for Steve Karsay and Steve Reed.
Unless a multiyear agreement can be reached sooner rather than later, the Braves look to be headed back to the arbitration room for the first time in 13 years, ironically with another closer: Craig Kimbrel.
Kimbrel and the Braves are much farther apart than Rocker's $1.08 million disparity. In his first year of arbitration and recognized as perhaps the best closer in baseball now that Mariano Rivera has retired, Kimbrel requested a whopping $9 million. The Braves countered with far less comparitively, suggesting a $6.5 million 2014 salary.
The Braves looked to be headed for hearings with Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman as well until they agreed on multiyear extensions with both. The Braves locked up Heyward for his remaining arbitration years with a 2-year, $13.3 million pact. The big one was Freeman, who received the richest contract in Braves history with an 8-year, $135 million deal.
Following the Jeff Francoeur episode in 2009, the Braves installed a team policy of ceasing arbitration talks with players once figures have been exchanged. They reached a deal with Francoeur just hours before both sides were to fly to Phoenix, AZ for a hearing. As with Rocker, Francoeur was traded mid-season (on July 10, 2009 to the Mets for Ryan Church).
GM Frank Wren recently clarified that they will continue talking to players as long as it's regarding multiyear extensions. Last year, the Braves had exchanged figures with Martin Prado, who was in his final year of arbitration before free agency, but continued discussing an extension with him until he was traded to the Diamondbacks in the blockbuster Justin Upton deal. The D-Backs immediately signed Prado to a 4-year, $40 million extension.
Yes, on the surface, Kimbrel may look like a slam dunk to win his case against the Braves and get paid $9 million in 2014. But there are a few facts on the Braves' side. He regressed in a few areas in 2013 compared to 2012. What arbitrators will have to decide is whether his regressed stats are still good enough to make $9 million in 2014. They might be. But let's look at some of the evidence the Braves may use.
Opposing batting average: In 2012, Kimbrel limited opponents to an amazing .122 average. In 2013, they hit slightly better, hitting .166.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA): In 2012, opponent's wOBA against Kimbrel was .170. In 2013, it increased to .222.
Strikeout-to-walk ratio: In 2012, for every batter Kimbrel walked, he struck out 8.29 batters in response. In 2013, this decreased almost in half, only striking out 4.9 hitters for every walk.
Zone%: In 2012, 52.9% of Kimbrel's pitches were in the strike zone. In 2013, this number slightly declined to 50.5%.
Swing-and-miss%: In 2012, 41.6% of Kimbrel's pitches missed the opposing batter's bat when it was swung. In 2013, hitters made better contact against Kimbrel, missing only 32.5% of his pitches.
Chase%: In 2012, 34.1% of Kimbrel's pitches outside the strike zone illicted a swing-and-a-miss. In 2013, this decreased to 30.7%, indicating that Kimbrel's slider may have lost a little deception and that hitters are seeing him better.
Called Strike%: In 2012, 40.9% of Kimbrel's pitches that were watched by opposing batters were called strikes. In 2013, this decreased to 34%, again indicating that he may have lost a little control and that hitters are seeing him better.
In-Play%: In 2012, only 21% of Kimbrel's pitches that opponents swung at were put in play. In 2013, this number rose to 28.7%, again indicating that batters are seeing him better.
These numbers do show evidence that Kimbrel's consistency is down and that batters are seeing his stuff better. However, his fastball velocity can't be used against him. The average velocity of his fastball stayed on par in 2013, going up to 96.9 from 96.8 in 2012.
It was silly to think that Kimbrel (or anyone) would be able to replicate his numbers from 2012; numbers that you'd think would only be possible in a video game. There is compelling evidence that 2013 Kimbrel was a little more hittable and wild than 2012 Kimbrel. But even with his "recessed" 2013 stats, Kimbrel still made his third-straight All-Star team, recorded a minute 1.23 ERA, 0.881 WHIP, and led all of MLB with 50 saves (tied with Jim Johnson). He finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting and 11th in the NL MVP voting. His 2013 stats are still ridiculously good enough to peg him as the best closer in baseball.
Will a panel of arbitrators agree with that or agree with the Braves that he shouldn't be paid like his 2012 version because his 2013 version was a downgrade in some areas?
Perhaps the real question is, no matter what happens with his salary, will Kimbrel be wearing a different uniform on August 1 like Rocker and Francoeur before him?