Dominican Power
Member
KC forever cellar dwellers.
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MLB Offseason '13-'14 |OT| Where the best fans live
- Thread starter Corran Horn
- Start date
Meh. It's 8mm a year. They can dump him 2-3 years down the way without blinking.
The concern is the lost roster spot which could have been given to a better pitcher. But even then, I don't know if they were comfortable committing more money in the next year or two to get someone better. It's not a terrible deal in a vacuum, it just probably doesn't make the royals better.
The concern is the lost roster spot which could have been given to a better pitcher. But even then, I don't know if they were comfortable committing more money in the next year or two to get someone better. It's not a terrible deal in a vacuum, it just probably doesn't make the royals better.
Maybe they can dump him or maybe he is so horrible that no one wants him. It just makes no sense to give a back end starter 4 years as guys like him can be picked up on 1-2 contracts.
I'm ambivalent enough about this contract that instead of typing an actual response I'll just link you to Dave Cameron's take on it, since I basically agree with everything there.
I would also add that the FA SPs still on the market are either riskier or going to cost a lot more per year than Vargas, and there's a good chance that Jason provides the best value/$ and consistency of any of the options that they can afford.
4 years sounds like a lot, but the risk is minimal and it provides certainty at a position where the Royals have struggled to develop their own players.
I'm pretty sure if the Indians signed this deal no one would care. I like to make fun of DM as much as anyone, but I'm not seeing it this time.
Dominican Power
Member
Yankees better not let Rangers/Tigers get a hold of Choo.
TheSadRanger
Banned
Holy crap, that old espn commercial at the bottom of the article is surreal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hixt2L-kou4&feature=player_embedded
He's going to make about as much as Ellsbury because he's still serviceable vs. lefties and like you said he crushes everything else. The only thing holding him back from being next to Cano is that he doesn't play CF well.
Dominican Power
Member
No one is paying him to play CF.
Mr. Enigma
Member
lol at the Royals giving Jason Vargas 4 years/$32 million. I mean, what the fuck.
Dominican Power
Member
Why not just pay Josh Johnson an extra year? I don't get it.
I posted this before but I will do it again.
Choo:
2008-2010: 1701 PA, .398 wOBA, 142 wRC+, 15.1 rWAR/13.8 fWAR
2011-2013: 1756 PA, .366 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 9.3 rWAR/9.0 fWAR
His numbers vs lefties has taken a serious hit and he has become horrible in the field. You may want to chalk that up to him playing CF which he is not very good at. However he was also horrible in RF the season before that.
This past season probably added another year and 30M+ to Choo's contract. Did anyone think he would hit 100M before the season started? He was a candidate to get a 5 year deal at 75M, better than Swisher because Swisher's 5th year is not guaranteed. Choo could have gotten a team option for a 6th year or perhaps he even lands a 5/80 deal.
Now I see 6/110 and 6/120 being thrown around for Choo. Does he keep on declining? Well he is 31 and OFs usually don't get better as they head into their mid 30's.
Also when you look at what Swisher did from 2009-2012, he is not that far removed from Choo's numbers over the same period:
Choo: .289/.382/.458, .368 wOBA/132 wRC+, 16.5 rWAR/14.5 fWAR
Swisher: .268/.367/.483, .370 wOBA/128 wRC+, 11.4 rWAR/14.4 fWAR
Steamer also predicts a 3.2 WAR for Choo next season and 2.9 for Swisher.
I like Choo, I think he is a good hitter who is declining but still good enough to produce some 3 WAR seasons. What I don't like is how much his contract could have ballooned because of 1 season.
Choo:
2008-2010: 1701 PA, .398 wOBA, 142 wRC+, 15.1 rWAR/13.8 fWAR
2011-2013: 1756 PA, .366 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 9.3 rWAR/9.0 fWAR
His numbers vs lefties has taken a serious hit and he has become horrible in the field. You may want to chalk that up to him playing CF which he is not very good at. However he was also horrible in RF the season before that.
This past season probably added another year and 30M+ to Choo's contract. Did anyone think he would hit 100M before the season started? He was a candidate to get a 5 year deal at 75M, better than Swisher because Swisher's 5th year is not guaranteed. Choo could have gotten a team option for a 6th year or perhaps he even lands a 5/80 deal.
Now I see 6/110 and 6/120 being thrown around for Choo. Does he keep on declining? Well he is 31 and OFs usually don't get better as they head into their mid 30's.
Also when you look at what Swisher did from 2009-2012, he is not that far removed from Choo's numbers over the same period:
Choo: .289/.382/.458, .368 wOBA/132 wRC+, 16.5 rWAR/14.5 fWAR
Swisher: .268/.367/.483, .370 wOBA/128 wRC+, 11.4 rWAR/14.4 fWAR
Steamer also predicts a 3.2 WAR for Choo next season and 2.9 for Swisher.
I like Choo, I think he is a good hitter who is declining but still good enough to produce some 3 WAR seasons. What I don't like is how much his contract could have ballooned because of 1 season.
Loved Flash.
Blackace
if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Me too! One of my favorite relivers of all time
Dmncnby2k9
Banned
Damn, Michael Weiner head of the Players Association. passed away at the age of 51. Damn that cancer.
Right that's the only reason he's not going to get mega bucks though. His OBP and batter's eye are the exact kind of "new-age" stats that GMs care about. I think they could care less about WAR and how he compares to Swisher in that department because a lot of GMs seem to care mostly about 2nd-tier stats (OPS/OBP/BB%) in this age. Maybe it's just me but I think his market price will be huge because people care about some of the proven "grit" or w/e at the plate. And yes he will play a corner OF spot for whoever signs him.
Ninja Scooter
Member
More teams have more money to spend. The market is going to get crazy inflated this offseason, which is going to be fun to watch because this isn't a particularly strong FA class. Watch Ricky Nolasco actually get that $80 million his agent was supposedly asking for lol
You think GMs dont care about WAR? Also my post was just my analysis not what GMs think.
I was responding more to Dominican Power than you, but I don't think some of these guys consider it, yes. Their scouting/research departments do I'm sure but I don't think everyone is getting paid based on the formula for how many million dollars a Win is worth and the projections from Steamer on what their WAR will be, no. Baseball is still not a numbers only game and Choo is a great example of that. He'll get paid near 150 million to be a slightly better Swisher because of his intangibles or whatever you want to call it.
Swisher was Mr. Intangibles. Clubhouse presence was through the roof and I like to give him 90% credit for the 09 WS.
His other son, Nick Gordon, will get drafted this year.
Little Green Yoda
Member
Pretty certain the successful front offices all have their own proprietary metrics that they go by instead of public sabr stats that we plebs debate over. GMs that rely on OPS/OBP/BB% solely are the ones left in the dust.
You don't know anything about a player without first knowing his LAR(Leadership above replacement) and GAR(Grit above replacement).
sf2fanatic
Member
So Dodgers eyeing on Haren?
Them So Cal kids want to come back home..
Them So Cal kids want to come back home..
Ninja Scooter
Member
He's still alive?
HarryDemeanor
Member
Please no. Don't do it Ned. DON'T DO IT.
Blackace
if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
oh shit! What position does he play?
Dmncnby2k9
Banned
Shortstop, with a better hit tool.
Blackace
if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Nice Gordon dynasty is ok by me!
Mr. Enigma
Member
Young's deal with the Mets is 1-year, $7.25 million.
$7.25 million for an 0.5 WAR player in 2013. Okay.
$7.25 million for an 0.5 WAR player in 2013. Okay.
Eh, it's one year. The dollars aren't nearly as much of an issue to me as the time commitment.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Considering the Mets have no money at all the dollars are a pretty big issue.
Dominican Power
Member
Mests doing with The Mests do.
Mr. Enigma
Member
Deal is now done. Peter Bourjos to the Cardinals. David Freese to the Angels.
I didn't know Freese could pitch. Cool.
I didn't know Freese could pitch. Cool.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Supposedly there are more players involved in the trade, will probably know the full details soon I guess
Sounds like Salas going to Angels
Little Green Yoda
Member
Freese and Salas gone? Wonder if Bourjos will push Jay into a bench role instead of a straight platoon.
Cards picking up Grichuk as well.
Cards picking up Grichuk as well.
BFIB
Member
Angels have the colors. They now have Pujols and Freese. Its 2011 all over again in Anaheim.
I'm sad to see Freese go, but it was time. Tremendous upside when healthy. Same with Bourjous. CF had to be addressed, and now it has been.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Freese will probably never have to pay for a meal again in his life if he retires and comes back to Saint Louis. Will never forget '11.
Interested in Grichuk, John Manuel puts him at #10 on Cards prospects which was way better than I would have expected
They need a 3B and they got one.
Little Green Yoda
Member
So now the depth chart at third is Marp/Descalso for the Cards? Eew. I imagine there aren't many options for a RH 3Bman with pop if Freese was drawing such interest
still eternally grateful for Oct 2011, however
Dominican Power
Member
Cardinals ripped The Angels off. I'm not surprised. That means that they're going to call Tavarez to play RF? Craig/Burjos/Tavarez and Adams to 1B.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
If Taveras is in RF, Craig will be at 1B (Holliday LF/Bourjos CF/Taveras RF). Don't know what will happen with Adams.
BFIB
Member
My guess is Taveras starts in AAA. Guy never really was able to get going last year due to the injuries. We have enough for our big league roster, I think he gets a year of seasoning, which also is another year where the Cards don't have to pay him.
What's interesting is what is done with Jay. Sugar Shane is a fine 4th OF option, so Jay may be expendable now.
Bourjos is right handed. That's not a Jon Jay replacement -- that's a platoon if I ever saw one. By their powers combined, a mediocre center field becomes a pretty good one. If one of them dramatically overperforms and takes the job full time, that's not a problem, either.
Add in that the Cardinals got a real prospect (albeit not a predestined all star) for a mediocre reliever the Cardinals don't need, and I'd strongly argue this is a solid trade for the Cardinals.
Add in that the Cardinals got a real prospect (albeit not a predestined all star) for a mediocre reliever the Cardinals don't need, and I'd strongly argue this is a solid trade for the Cardinals.