Even days after the conclusion of the fight, the debates remain. Who won between Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz?
According to the judges, Condit won a unanimous decision to become the UFC interim welterweight champion on 2/4 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. The decision was close, and there is guaranteed outrage over any big main event where it could have gone either way.
The facts are this. Condit backed up most of the five rounds and Diaz moved forward. Condit outlanded Diaz in four of the five rounds. Condit came in with a game plan that was not meant to be entertaining, but meant to throw Diaz off his game. He did so. Diaz was befuddled for most of the fight to find an answer to Condit's backing up, moving in, landing something and moving away. That doesn't necessarily mean Diaz lost, since people were split and if anything, the appearance is more felt Diaz won. But this was not the Shogun Rua vs. Lyoto Machida decision where virtually everyone was on the other side. This was a battle of interpretations and what means more, being the aggressor, landing more, head shots vs. leg shots, being more comfortable and fighting your fight. And there was the caveat that almost everyone wanted to see Diaz win because the fight everyone wanted was Georges St. Pierre vs. Diaz, even people who don't like Diaz. The thing is, with Diaz, everyone has an opinion. Some don't like him. A lot. Some like him. A lot. With Condit, nobody has an opinion. He's just a guy who is a good fighter that nobody really cares about.
With the win by Condit, at first glance, that fight appears to be out of the question. But nothing is for sure.
While people can argue over who should have won, there is no question what fight the public wanted, which was a Condit vs. Diaz rematch, even though the first fight was not all that exciting. At least our polls showed 68% thinking there should be a rematch. It was sensing public opinion that led to it happening. On Saturday, after the fight, when it was suggested to Dana White about a rematch, he dismissed the idea, and said it was crazy. White said he felt Condit won 48-47. When I heard the question, I thought the same thing. Condit won clean. It wasn't pretty. It wasn't that entertaining. But he won the fight and earned his title shot. Diaz didn't get killed, but in no way does he deserve a second chance to do what he couldn't do the first time.
However, as it became clear that not everyone felt that Condit had won, you could sense there was interest in a second fight, which is important since UFC has far more shows than they have main events that there is significant interest in. At first, Condit claimed he wanted to fight once before GSP is healthy, while Diaz said if he won, he would wait for GSP. But after the win, Condit said he'd wait for GSP while Diaz claimed he was retired.
Dana White evidently saw public opinion and figured the best thing in the big picture was a rematch, although Malki Kawa, Condit's agent, once again said they had no interest in such a match. They said that in everyone's opinion who mattered (the judges who scored the fight, and White, who can if he disagrees with decisions do things to override them like book the loser like he won, or give the loser that he thinks won a winning bonus and treat him like he won) that Condit had won the fight. Plus, Condit had already been jacked around due to things that in no way were his fault.
He was supposed to face GSP on 10/29, a fight that fell apart when GSP first got hurt. Then he was promised GSP when healthy. Then the fight was pulled because Diaz, beating B.J. Penn on 10/29 while Condit sat the show out waiting for his guaranteed title shot, talked his way into the fight by insulting GSP which caused GSP to demand Diaz. But then GSP got hurt again, so Condit and Diaz got their shot at the interim title, where the winner had a belt and thus would have to face GSP first.
Condit had leverage and evidently White wanted to make the fight badly enough to meet a price Condit felt was worth it to give up his guaranteed shot at GSP. Because this fight may cost him, it may have to be on PPV, even though having it on the 5/5 FOX show would at least guarantee that show does good ratings, something that the current lineup hardly does. But White and Condit were to meet on 2/11 to work out all the details.
From the UFC standpoint, if Diaz wins, then they get the GSP vs. Diaz fight, which may be the biggest non-boxing PPV of the year. If Condit wins, he'll have beaten Diaz twice. While some may feel he doesn't deserve the belt he's got or the shot to unify, a second win, unless it's controversial, has a good chance to quelling any controversy. If the fight is put on FOX, it's a bigger stage for both men, and sets the stage where the biggest number of viewers sees them and will in theory be interested in seeing the story to its conclusion, which is the GSP fight with the winner. Condit can erase the controversy, build up his name, in theory, put on a performance that will make people interested in him as an opponent for GSP, which the first win did not do. So it's not like it's a no-win situation past the money for him. But the reality is, had Diaz gotten the same close decision, I don't believe for a second there would be a rematch. It's just the reality of a sport where match-ups are decided based on what it is perceived the fans want to see, and that favors, often greatly, stars that fans are interested in. On the surface, it' s not fair, but in another fashion, it is, just fair in the reality that it is a star-driven business and being a star is a lot more than just wins and losses, and in the end, it's about promoters giving people what they want to see within reason. When the fight was over, I thought, as did Dana White, that a rematch was unreasonable. But the perception of public opinion led White down the other direction, and ultimately, reading the public is a huge part of being a successful promoter.
Four of the five rounds were exclusively standing. Condit outlanded Diaz 151-105 in significant strikes, with a 29-23 edge in the first round, Diaz had a 32-29 edge in the second, but Condit had the edge in the next three rounds 32-22, 36-11 and 25-17. The fifth round saw Condit clearly winning the stand-up, but Diaz got him down and got his back and was working for a choke and an armbar, but never really came close with either. A lot of Condit's offense came in the way of low kicks. Diaz did have a 62-55 edge in strikes to the head, but just as you can say Condit's low kicks were more like jabs as opposed to power shots, almost all of Diaz's punches were jabs as well, as in power shots, Condit had a 12-8 edge.
As far as the judging went, to me, the only solid rounds were three and four, which were both clearly for Condit. Rounds one, two and five could be reasonably scored in either direction. However, two judges, Patricia Morse Jarman and Cecil Peoples, who both scored it 49-46 for Condit, gave Diaz only the third round, one of the two he seemingly clearly lost. The third judge, Junichiro Kamijo, was the only one with a reasonable card, giving Diaz rounds two and five, which were the same two rounds as the Fightmetric scorecard gave Diaz. So the problem then became even if you were to defend the verdict based on the judges, you are left with a problem because two cards identically made no sense. And they both came from Nevada judges who have been under fire many times in the past. After the fight, even though White agreed with the verdict (he gave Condit rounds three through five), he still did a rant on how bad the judging in MMA has been, how it's hurting the sport and how the athletic commissions need to train both judges and referees, noting too many people are being robbed in decisions.
Based on preliminary trends, the show looks to have done in the range of 400,000 buys, which is more than I would have predicted. The key seems to be the Prime Time show, with so much talk stemming in particular from episode two, but also episode three. Most of our indicators, from the web site poll, to the newsletter poll, had a higher volume than expected as well. Because the show had no undercard, and really nothing was even promoted hard but the main event, it's clear that Diaz's win over B.J. Penn and his antics involving GSP have made him a draw. The interest in this fight was because people smelled GSP vs. Diaz and saw this as step one in the story. The strongest markets per capita look to have been Edmonton, Las Vegas, Calgary, Albuquerque (Condit's home city), Vancouver, Los Angeles, Seattle, Dallas, Toronto, San Francisco (Diaz is from Northern California), Montreal (GSP's home market since he was to face the winner), Halifax (GSP strong market), Phoenix, San Antonio and San Diego. And once again, with the new time slot being back to the old time slot, we're seeing a stronger West Coast skew in the best markets.