One of the craziest weeks in UFC history saw what would have likely been the biggest title fight of 2011 disappear after Nick Diaz no-showed two press conferences and Dana White hinted at firing him. Hours later, Diaz was back on the card in a new match.
So UFC 137 was announced as having a double main event, Georges St. Pierre defending the welterweight title against Carlos Condit, and Diaz vs. B.J. Penn, with Penn and St. Pierre switched opponents.
Then all weekend, Diaz started having second thoughts according to people very close to both fighters. He was making noises at not doing the match. At one point he got word to the Penn camp that because of his respect for Penn that neither he nor brother Nate would ever fight Penn. Apparently there was a time when Nate was broached with the idea of fighting Penn and turned it down, citing Penn was one of their idols growing up. Penn himself was hopeful of Diaz doing the fight, because he was afraid that if he didnt, with Jon Fitch on the shelf until December, that he wouldnt be able to get another fight this year, and felt he needed one more win to get GSP back in the cage.
For most of the weekend, the word was that he was adamant about not doing the fight. But on either 9/12, apparently he was talked into changing his mind, since not doing the fight would be the worst thing possible for his career at this point. With no independent Strikeforce and basically nowhere you can make money, doing what Dana White would construe as backing out after being handed a break would almost surely spell the end of his UFC tenure. As of the last word we had, which was Monday night when Diaz was said to have changed his mind and agreed, there was no indication he waffled back the other direction. He had given Penn through intermediaries the word that he would fight him, but nobody had any confirmation he had actually signed the bout agreement at press time.
Diaz was punished for no-showing in a big way, including being taken out of a fight hes wanted for years and basically his career in UFC was at stake if he wouldnt have faced Penn, The difference in what hes going to make fighting Penn in the semifinal with what he would have made against St. Pierre is said to be in the seven figures due to the PPV cut. Hes also out of the title picture, at least for this year. Hes gone from seven figures, even if he lost, to essentially very slightly more than he would have made had he fought Tyron Woodley in Strikeforce for the welterweight title he vacated to get the St. Pierre fight.
If St. Pierre and Diaz both win, they will once again be booked against each other. If Diaz wins and Condit wins, its not a lock Diaz would get the shot at Condit, because there is a good chance St. Pierre would be given a rematch first given his standing unless the loss isnt competitive.
If St. Pierre and Penn win, and most are favoring that to happen, it becomes interesting. St. Pierre and Penn have fought twice, with St. Pierre winning both times. The first was a much talked about decision where Penn marked up St. Pierres face and won the first round solid, while St. Pierre won rounds two and three closer. But the second fight St. Pierre took Penn apart, dominating the fight and winning when both the referee and Penns corner wouldnt allow him to continue after the beating hed taken. However, Penn has been furious, believing that St. Pierre greased his body which is why he wasnt able to control St. Pierre on the ground without slipping off. Between rounds, St. Pierres corner in putting Vaseline around his eyes, also patted him on the back and chest with it, and it was Penns guard slipping off St. Pierres upper back which was the clip his supporters have brought up. There was a lot of controversy because the Nevada commission caught St. Pierres corner doing so between rounds and forced him to be toweled off. They claimed it wasnt intentional greasing and just the way they rubbed him down and there was little Vaseline left on the hands at the time. However, even though the Nevada commission forced him to towel down, after the fight, they turned down Penns asking for the decision to be thrown out, leaving Penn mad at Nevada.
Penns primary goal right now is getting the third fight with St. Pierre, and whether its Condit or Diaz, his feeling is this win should get him the match. But after how one-sided the second fight was, and the fact there is a 20-pound weight difference between the two even though Penn has compete well against most welterweights, seemed too much for Penn to overcome. Penn of late has said he doesnt want to fight anyone at lightweight, because thats not St. Pierres division. He also wants St. Pierre ahead of the title. If Condit was to beat St. Pierre and he was to win, he would rather face St. Pierre without a title at stake.
But there is a big problem. Yeah, for fans, its weird, but its okay. Penn vs. Diaz isnt quite as big a fight, but its still big. GSP vs. Condit is not a big GSP fight. The dynamic isnt there. Nobody thinks Condit can win. Condit isnt a big star to the masses and hasnt beaten anyone of the level to where fans see him as a threat. It may still be one of the biggest shows so far this year, when the other way it may have been No. 1 or No. 2 for the year.
But after talking about firing him, to use Diaz at this point without at least getting him help is akin to TNA and Jeff Hardy. History tells you something. You pretend that wont happen to you, but it just did. And you still pretend.
Diaz is a talented fighter, and an intriguing personality. Hes nuts in a way that appeals to people. He never gets finished so even when he loses, he somehow proclaims that he didnt lose. And the fact is, he hasnt lost in a long time anyway. But his history has included missing two fights at the last minute, one because even when warned, he couldnt stop using marijuana, put it on his medical listing as a drug he used when it was illegal for fighters, and the commission wouldnt allow him to fight.
He blew another fight with Jay Hieron when he no-showed a drug test that he was likely to fail. It wasnt just no-showing a drug test, but it was no-showing for days on end and telling promoter Scott Coker that he was going, and then taking off.
Then there was the time he missed weightby nine pounds. Remember that one. He was in the ocean and swallowed salt water and thus wasnt able to cut weight. Another time, in the Frank Shamrock fight, even though he usually fights at 170, they made it a 179 catch weight fight, and a few days before, his side asked for it to be raised a few pounds because he wasnt going to be able to make 179.
And then there was the time against Joe Riggs, where he lost the fight in the cage, and later that night, he saw Riggs in the hospital and attacked him and started a fight there.
And then there were the two most famous brawls in U.S. MMA history, the one with the family of K.J. Noons in Hawaii, and the one where he and his crew, five-on-one, beat up on Mayhem Miller when Miller issued a challenge to Jake Shields. That one cost Strikeforce its CBS contract.
After he blew off drug testing before the Hieron fight, Ken Hershman from Showtime, said they would never use him on their network because they put so much time into promoting him and hes not even professional enough to take his drug test. But geez, the guy is marketable. They changed their tune, and put him in a title match that he was expected to win. Then he wasnt happy as champion, complaining about pay, and to his credit, managed to parlay that into a bigger UFC contract and a St. Pierre fight.
He no-showed the press conference on 9/6 in Toronto, raising the ire of GSP, who felt if he had to miss training days, than his opponent should have to as well. The next day, he promised he would be in Las Vegas. His coach, manager and father figure, Cesar Gracie, was supposed to watch over him and deliver him. But he snuck out the door and left. He no-showed the second press conference, was pulled from the match, and then complained that they were protecting GSP.
What basically happened is, Nick freaked out, White told Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports!. He disappeared. He told me he couldnt handle the pressure of the main event. It wasnt that he couldnt fight or wouldnt have fought, but all the responsibilities that come with fighting in the main event, he said he couldnt deal with that. The fighting part is the easy part to him.
Wonderful. Granted there is a level between main eventing several Strikeforce shows and being half of the biggest match of the year. And even though his fight is still really the main event to most fans, just not being billed as such, he wont have quite the pressure because its not being promoted as the main event.
But still, if a guy has so much of a problem that he cant get from Stockton to Las Vegas for a press conference, if it was a first-time problem, he should be fined and warned. After about the tenth time, he needs to somehow get help before fighting again because there is something seriously wrong. Yeah, it would be a lot better for the company if Diaz somehow does something in the next several weeks that gets him off the show, whether it be no-showing a potential out of competition drug test or accidentally drinking some salt water again, that hes not in the title match. And make no mistake, he is getting punished financially a great deal. A lot of people are sure that he cant beat Penn, but I never take results with top guys for granted, unless its Andrei Arlovski in with a guy with a big punch. What happens if he beats Penn?
Then hes clearly the No. 1 contender. And then you have to worry about him showing up for press conferences, drug tests, and blowing the fight. If he sat out a few months and was told get some help or you are fired, then you dont risk the money his title shot would bring if he stays because he can fight whoever next year. And if he cant stay, well, its certainly better he hasnt beaten Penn and then leaves, because he then becomes a larger than life ghost of an uncrowned world champion. For the fans it works out, but for the company its the worst of both worlds. You dont have the biggest fight of the year. You may not get it. But, in what can be worse, you may make people want it more, and it may not happen again. And what if he becomes champion? Every title match you have to cross your fingers he wont self destruct in some way before the fight. Plus, in a company so media conscious, youve got a champion who wont do media. And that sets a precedent for others who would rather train then make all the phone calls guys are required to do fight week.
Wed be right back in that position again, White said if Diaz beats Penn. But well deal with it when that happens. I have too much shit to do to worry about what might happen down the road. I wake up every morning and find out I have a whole long list of problems to deal with. Nick Diaz took a week out of my life dealing with this.
To tell you the truth, the excuses he gave me made no sense, said White to Iole. Youve interviewed Nick Diaz before. You know what Im talking about. But I started thinking about this. This kid is a real fighter and I love the B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz fight. He always does show up to fight. We have trouble with him doing P.R. We also have problems with Nate (his brother), whom I have a great relationship with, in getting him to do his P.R.
St. Pierre vs. Diaz was likely to get a three week Prime Time build, which with Diazs personality and the champion vs. champion positioning (Diaz as the Strikeforce welterweight champion, although technically the title was vacated when he signed with UFC) would likely have made it a huge buy rate not even throwing in that Diaz is facing the guy who just beat his longtime best friend, Jake Shields. Diaz is a unique character in the sense that many fighters try hard to have appeal and charisma. Diaz has none of the classic traits, and nobody tries less hard to have charisma, but he still does. But he is something innate that makes him among the most compelling fighters in the business. With an 11-fight winning streak and some of the fastest hands in MMA, he has the kind of highlight clips and the type of personality that sell fights. Even more, it fits perfectly with St. Pierre as an opponent. Unlike Josh Koscheck, who everyone hated and GSP could play white knight, Diaz brings out the emotions of both parts of GSP. For those who love GSP, Diaz has enough negative qualities and enough dangerous qualities that if youre a GSP fan, youll be more interested than usual, and more worried than usual, both of which contributes to business. But for those who are ready for the GSP backlash, too white knight, play it safe, too sports like and not gritty street fighter, Diaz is your guy, the perfect opponent, his antithesis.
The show sold out immediately, because of a huge demand from area casinos, who treated it like an A list boxing show, gobbling up the seats at the highest rate in a long time, expecting this to be the fight that will bring the tourists in from Canada like no other. UFC jacked up ticket prices, and the gate will likely wind up as one of the biggest in company history. Mandalay Bay holds more than 11,000 and the actual ticket sales to the public through the ticket outlets was about $2 million, and with the ticket prices they were charging, thats probably around 5,000 tickets to the public. Given the ticket prices, the actual gate will likely be well north of $4 million.
Condit may be a tougher opponent for GSP than Diaz, because Diaz was booked smartly in Strikeforce. They kept good takedown guys away from him, which was his Achilles heel his first times in UFC (he was in UFC from 2003 to 2006, ages 20 to 23). At that point he lost decisions to Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan, Diego Sanchez and Sean Sherk. B.J. Penn would beat that Diaz. GSP would destroy that Diaz. But what we dont know is if this Diaz at 28, is the same as that Diaz, just being booked smarter. Or is his 11-fight win streak indicative of really being one of the best all-around fighters in the sport, as some see him.
On paper, Condit only beats GSP if GSP has slipped greatly, and has lost his hunger being a multi-millionaire celebrity. GSP is better than Condit at every facet of the game. Condit is a good fighter, who lost to Martin Kampmann, barely beat Jake Ellenberger on a split decision (Condit won the fight overall but I had Ellenberger winning 29-28 on points) and would have lost to Rory MacDonald had MacDonald not gassed out in round three.
Both GSP and Condit are affiliated with Greg Jackson, who has said he is stepping out of training both men for the fight. But the two have not trained much if at all in the past and are now friends.
GSP at his best on paper also beats Diaz, but Diazs unique stand-up may be so fast that it gives GSP problems and keeps him off balance. Paul Daley was supposed to have some of the best standup in the division, and while he did deck Diaz twice in what was the most exciting round of fighting this year, Diaz took Daley apart most of the round and finished him with seconds left.
It can go a number of different ways. If Diaz is the same guy he was five years ago, Penn should just wrestle him to a decision. Standing, Penn hits hard enough to hurt Diaz, but Diazs hands are much faster and his volume has thrown most opponents off. Plus, unless Penn somehow finds the cardio that he didnt have with Frankie Edgar, hes going to be in trouble if the fight goes late in the second round. Plus, youre talking a huge natural size difference. Penn is still a natural 165-pounder fighting a weight class up. Diaz is a 185-pounder cutting to make a weight class. Hes got a huge size, height and reach edge.