So for this week's essay, I did an analysis of the top 75 sports entertainers, as per Google's rankings, and would like to share my insights with all my friends. I'm not going to paste all 75 (the top 10 are, in descending order, John Cena, PBF, Pacquiao, Dwayne Johnson, Brock Lesnar, Muhammad Ali, Gina Carano, Anderson Silva, Mike Tyson, and the Hulkster), but here are some thoughts I had on the shootfighters in the list:
A few things became clear here. One is that when it comes to boxing, there really are only two stars. The hope is Canelo Alvarez becomes the third star and the next big thing. This shows that right now he has not caught on to a great degree with the public, which isnt to say he wont, if hes promoted at the top level. But some people you can see here catching on early. The other is that the legendary names of boxing, Ali, Tyson and even George Foreman, are all bigger stars than all but Mayweather and Pacquiao. Those three and Hulk Hogan are still bigger stars to the public than most of the people in their industries, although nostalgic figures cant draw on a weekly basis. Really, when it comes to wrestling and MMA, being brand oriented, the secondary brand has a very limited upside no matter what they do and the primary brand can screw up and is going to maintain a level of popularity. Think the NFL and Arena Football. It doesnt matter who has the most exciting game, one isnt doing a rating and selling out buildings and the other is. You can hurt the primary brand and help the secondary, but comparing the two and determining by that the primary brand must be doing everything right because its ahead of the secondary brand, even if the primary brand is losing market share, shows nothing.
The other thing is to look at movement here. Brock Lesnars increase has to do with his WWE return and the Overeem match (which did take place at the end of 2011 but because of the day we figured in, there is a lag of a week or two in these numbers) after being out of action the previous year except for a season of Ultimate Fighter that wasnt anything special. Caranos increase is not fight related, obviously. But shes become a bigger mainstream star based on movie roles. Granted, one starring role in a movie that flopped hardly makes one a movie star, but she has a unique charisma, and thats why, without any real acting ability and a first movie that flopped, shes getting regular work in major movies. But it shows her unique appeal.
Chael Sonnen has made himself into a bigger star this year as his second fight with Anderson Silva was considerably bigger than the first, even if less memorable.
The dropping of Georges St. Pierre shows something that Ive noticed. Legendary boxing figures maintain their status decades after their prime. Legendary pro wrestlers do to a lesser degree. MMA fighters are all about the here and now. There is really no enduring interest. Its notable that really nobody cares that much about Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture in the mainstream, and they were the top stars only five years ago. GSP was out of action this year due to a knee injury and nobody talks about him. When he fights, hell be right back up and he will draw because an inactive MMA fighter that high is impressive. I should point out that in boxing, only certain fighters maintain that aura.
Oscar de La Hoya was still boxings biggest drawing card five years ago. and hes not on this list, nor is Sugar Ray Leonard, who was boxings biggest drawing card in a period more recent than Ali and Foreman.
It seems to indicate that for all the money Mayweather and Pacquiao are drawing today, it is not a lock they are not going to be remembered after their retirement at anywhere near the level of a Tyson, Foreman or an Ali. Id strongly bet against it because when those guys had their big fight, the world did stand still. Even De La Hoya vs. Mayweather, which was the biggest fight of the past decade, did not have that. The last fight I think that really had it was the Tyson vs. Holyfield series and maybe Tyson vs. Lewis, but even though that did big numbers, people deep down knew Tyson wasnt for real anymore whereas with Holyfield people still thought he was.
Hogan and El Santo can be put in that category as well. It may have to do with less availability of sports and less media fragmentation, combined with people being larger than life at a different level.
Ronda Rousey is the first name to pop on this list that has never been there before. Its pretty much a sign that if put in the right position to draw, shes going to be a big deal. But she can easily be a flash in the pan, particularly if she doesnt get by Sarah Kaufman. If she does get by her and fights Cris Cyborg, shell be a significantly bigger deal, and if she beats Cyborg, will likely jump from there. Keep in mind she is not at the level Carano was pre-Cyborg, although having an Olympic medal in an Olympic year gives her a sports credibility that would be beneficial to a media push.
Miguel Cottos number is inflated by being linked with Mayweather in the biggest PPV event of the year. Hes a better example of the Juan Manuel Marquez syndrome, or Victor Ortiz. The opponent in the big money PPV match is going to get a ton of interest and attention, but when he loses, much of it is going to go away.
Rashad Evans is there because of his part in the Jon Jones match and the build to that match. Evans to me is not a drawing card on his own. Hes the catalyst in the sense he can make an existing drawing card do even bigger because hes good at promoting fights and he is a name. But hes not super popular. Hes kind of hated, but not super hated either. A Rashad Evans fight with Phil Davis isnt a big deal, but if he can maneuver his way into a fight with Anderson Silva, it will likely be somewhat of a big deal. You can say the same with Sonnen, in that take him away from Anderson Silva and hes never going to do record business (unless he can get in the title picture with a different champion). But Sonnen has a chance to be a genuine media star and fixture on television in some form.
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The standing of Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez seems to show that even as the two top heavyweights, they havent caught on at the level of lighter weight champions. Velasquez was hurt badly by the nature of the loss to Dos Santos, although if he was to win a rematch, hed do a lot better. But his natural shyness and lack of charisma does hurt him outside the Mexican-American community. He is very strong with that group and if he wins the title back will be even stronger. While UFC has gained greatly in that demo in recent years, it is nowhere near as entrenched as boxing or pro wrestling (even if Showtimes Hispanic numbers for MMA at one point were ahead of boxing).
Obviously the entire division lost a ton when Lesnar was no longer in the title picture. For all of the headaches and bad pub, the one who caught on the quickest with the public was Alistair Overeem. Granted, he was in with Lesnar, but his main event with no title at stake was far bigger than the last heavyweight title match, where Dos Santos defended against Mir, who is a genuine star.
Mir as world champion would have been a really big deal, but the reality is that while hes got his obvious talents, he just isnt quite at that level as a fighter in the sense the top tier guys like Velasquez, Dos Santos, Werdum, Cormier and Overeem are likely to beat him almost every time.
I dont think the white American heavyweight champion thing in this sport means anything, like the days in boxing where theyd try and manufacture people to fill that role. Mir can talk with the best of them, has a great look, and more important, he can make you like him and he can make you hate him just being himself. Personally, I think Dos Santos should be very good at making people like him but it hasnt caught on the way you would think he would have. Hes a heavyweight KO artist who usually entertains, and knocked a guy out to win the title in one minute in the most-watched fight in history. But hes another one of those guys who you can list all the attributes on paper on why hes a superstar to the public, and in this country, he just isnt, past the fact hes got the heavyweight title.
Overeem has the potential, and it is the physique thats a big part of it, but also the style and the attitude. In the Countdown stuff with Lesnar, you could like him or hate him, but he came across like something really special. But hes a lightning rod. That failed steroid test will hover over him the rest of his career. It wont hurt his drawing power, but it will lead to controversy in the sport if he wins the world title. And it will always be whispered loudly if not talked about outright.
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On the flip side, Ben Henderson, Jose Aldo, Dominick Cruz are all still struggling to break through, and Dolph Ziggler may be a big deal to the hardcore base, but hes still much like Daniel Bryan was a year ago, in that hes not a big star past that group. And Alberto Del Rio remains someone who fits all the categories they want to pushLatin star, good looking, speaks well in two languages, looks like a star, great entrance, and yet, with all that, Del Rio has never been a draw and is not over close to his level of push. Thats always been an issue, and its like that in all forms of entertainment and even athletics, that people who fit into every category and should be over, as compared to people who shouldnt for all the same reasons, when put out before the public, it doesnt always work out that way. There are frameworks and hunches, but there are guys who click with multiple reasons why they shouldnt. And there are guys who have all the qualities of being cant miss, but the public just doesnt care for them past the surface level of cheering and booing because they are pushed guys set out in front of them, but they just dont care that much about them. Del Rio has had a constant huge push since he arrived, and people see him as a star because hes in the position of being a star. But he hasnt clicked anywhere near the level of his push.
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The Carlos Condit name is a surprise and perhaps a fluke of the system in the sense his match with Nick Diaz did well, largely due to Diaz, but he did win and it did put focus on him and his fight with GSP is going to do well. In that sense, hes in the same boat Jake Shields was last year, in that the spotlight of being in the right fight garners interest. If Condit loses, I dont see him sustaining. Of course, if he does beat GSP, that alone may either make him a draw, or at least put him in a position to draw bigger against a Diaz or GSP level star.
The other notable thing is boxing and UFC this year are lacking stars on the upswing. Sonnen is up, but at his age, hes not the new young star. The hope is for Jon Jones to be that and hes shown enough in the name recognition and drawing power that youve got something. At his age and with his ability, if he stays grounded, there may be potential for him because as a general rule, fighters if they keep winning elevate their drawing power. Their actual drawing power peak usually is a few years after their athletic peak. So Jones could have seven or ten more years and possibly, with his obvious flaws and faults that will keep him from truly connecting 100% (and lets face it, its not like Mayweather isnt filled with them and hes currently the top draw of all), he may have a leg up on eventually being that legendary figure for his time.
But the combination of the nature of their changed television deal and seeming decline in overall interest except for the big fights, has made it rough. People like Rory MacDonald and Renan Barao are rising stars, but are not being made. A few years ago, it was UFC making the new stars and leaving WWE behind. Right now the opposite is happening. WWE is making new stars, boxing hasnt in years and UFC is struggling to do so. And ultimately, in all three business, the consistent ability to make new stars is the key to sustaining the business.
Another issue in UFC is that the more like boxing they become, you can argue, the tougher they make it for themselves. The reality is, that with the exception of a fading Urijah Faber, and Nate Diaz (more because his aura as a star is enhanced by his brother and they become grouped together), UFC has no real stars who compete in divisions lighter than welterweight. Its something that everyone knows and something nobody wants to say. Its not impossible, because B.J. Penn was a huge draw as a lightweight and Faber was a big draw as a featherweight and both were major stars at their peak.
The problem is lightweight was log jammed with uncharismatic Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar. And for a number of reasons, Jose Aldo Jr. and Renan Barao could be the worst thing for their respective divisions in the U.S. market as Brazilians that nobody particularly likes or dislikes, who cant speak the language, cant promote, dont have the charisma of Anderson Silva (who himself struggles to draw with the wrong opponent) and may be so dominant that people just dont care. I dont see any featherweight fight in the near future doing a thing if its on top. Barao vs. Cruz wont be a big fight, and if Barao wins that fight, Barao will have a hard time drawing as long as hes champion. Cruz will do better because he does come across well on television, but there is no indication Cruz has any potential to be a draw either.
Again, it would be easy to simplify this into UFC fans dont want to see smaller guys. And because of the nature of UFC of trying to have fairly equal rosters of every weight division, we do get a lot of bantamweight, featherweight and soon to by flyweight (and please dont even think about adding a 115 pound weight class any time soon) matches that will go to decisions with a bunch of guys nobody cares about. Now, as far as being prelims, theres nothing wrong with them unless they change the dynamic of the promotion. And they have to some degree.
Its not inherent that people wont support them, because Faber and Penn show that not to be the case. But even in their case, both Faber and Penn had a ton of charisma. Getting over the smaller champions is an uphill battle that can work, but only with the right guy, and the problem is, UFC has not had that guy of late. Ben Henderson is a question. Hes got more than Edgar naturally when it comes to star power, and in his favor, hes got a resume of some great fights. Right now I see him as a guy who could be a non-liability as champion if he can keep the title, but right now he is not there yet with the public. Hes also in the deepest division when it comes to talent. Diaz as champion can be a star. So could Donald Cerrone and Clay Guida had the potential to be bigger than any of them except hes not the level of fighter who can be more than a cult favorite non-contender (like a Roy Nelson), and after a while, in UFC which is so results oriented, that can wear out. And Guida obviously has some repairing to do right now.