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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Russia has a right to protect its borders. Colonial war? Sure, but if Canada or Mexico was thinking about allying with China and Russia you can bet your ass that the United States would have no problems invading those countries to protect its regional interests.
Europe is not at all the same thing for Russia as China is for the US. Russia was already practically a European country. Ukraine's accession to NATO only has any real significance in words. In reality, it ended with Finland's accession to NATO. So what? This is all a pointless confrontation with Europe instead of mutually beneficial cooperation.
 
And the flooding of their nations with peoples that are incompatible with their way of life. As Trudeau said, Canada is a "post national state". It doesn't have a history nor a defined "people". Absolutely wretched what has become of Canada, and the West in general.
People don't realize it's a zero-sum game. Everyone points at negative conflicts, but how about positive conflicts? You've got cultures who's idea of the perfect leisure weekend conflicts directly with another's. Call to prayer volume, dog walking philosophy, loud music philosophy, which day is the Sabbath etc. I think the Western natives get leap frogged and the cultural battle ends up being between Hindu and Muslim. How ironic is that?
 
Europe is not at all the same thing for Russia as China is for the US. Russia was already practically a European country. Ukraine's accession to NATO only has any real significance in words. In reality, it ended with Finland's accession to NATO. So what? This is all a pointless confrontation with Europe instead of mutually beneficial cooperation.


I agree with you, I am just trying to analyze the situation from an objective point of view as best as I can. Venezuela was allied with Russia, China, and the IRGC, it also happens to be close enough to the United States to pose a risk, which is why I agree with Trump's move there. As a Canadian, I also understand that considering the weakness of my own government to curb CCP infiltration and the mass movement of drugs across the Canada/US boarder that Trump sees Canada as a viable threat. It is a new era where militarily strong countries are going to go out of their way to protect their realms of influence. It is nothing new to history.
 
People don't realize it's a zero-sum game. Everyone points at negative conflicts, but how about positive conflicts? You've got cultures who's idea of the perfect leisure weekend conflicts directly with another's. Call to prayer volume, dog walking philosophy, loud music philosophy, which day is the Sabbath etc. I think the Western natives get leap frogged and the cultural battle ends up being between Hindu and Muslim. How ironic is that?
There has been a decades long PR war to convince westerners (primarily 'white people') that they have no culture, everything was stolen from someone else, and they should be feeling suuuuper guilty about anything good in their lives because it came from the blood of someone else. So naturally it leaves an exploitable gap of accommodation, accommodation, accommodation where an antagonistic culture can get a grip and sloooooooowly raise the temperature until suddenly the frog is now getting boiled alive.

Some other cultures don't have that weakness and can call out trespass when they see it (or they want into that gap themselves :P )
 
Venezuela was allied with Russia, China, and the IRGC, it also happens to be close enough to the United States to pose a risk, which is why I agree with Trump's move there.
Trump's move was smarter: he eliminated a leader with a bad reputation, and if he helps the Venezuelans (even while profiting from it), he deserves praise even from leftists. Putin wanted to do the same thing with Ukraine as he did with Crimea, but it didn't work out. And the current war is an attempt to save face by presenting the capture of Donbas as a victory. Yes, the land corridor to Crimea and the Sea of Azov is relatively significant, but the overall goal has been lost — Ukraine can no longer be brought under Russia's control (if Europeans don't abandon Ukrainians).

I also understand that considering the weakness of my own government
This is not a weakness of your government. It is a weakness of modern Western ideology. Trump may not be the best candidate, but at least he sees the problem and is trying to change it.
 
Reading over 500 killed already by the Government.

Horrific stuff.

Tells us all we need to know about how little respect the government has for their own people, human life and the rights of the protesters.
Hopefully, this revolution will succeed and they will all stand trial. Starting with Khomeini.
 

Stand on business, brother. Die on them feet, good sir. Never live on those knees just to breathe another breath.

Thank you EvilLore for the continuous updates and to all others putting up the news. I don't have social media so this is how I'm keeping up on everything.

Freedom is very precious item to me and the people standing strong, make me feel so proud.
 
Tells us all we need to know about how little respect the government has for their own people, human life and the rights of the protesters.
Hopefully, this revolution will succeed and they will all stand trial. Starting with Khomeini.
Let's be real - the respect towards people is a western construct really. Not a single non-westernized country has respect towards its people.

Hopefully, this revolution will succeed and they will all stand trial. Starting with Khomeini.
Lol, a trial. For a trial they need to lose a real war. But as long as the military is not joining the protesters, nothing will happen.
 
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Yes. But it's a choice.
Being an evil bastard, like Khomeini, is also a choice.
Maybe. But - just like Venezuela - Iran is not a country where just elections change anything. Ayatollah and IRGC is one of the forces there. But not the only one. I am curious how it is going to end but I don't think Pahlavi has any opportunity there. Too many interested groups within Iran.


I am sure there are options but basically the clock is ticking. I do think that they have 2 days left. Protesters failed to find leaders and neither police nor military are on their side. So what exactly can be done to change the tide? That's the question.
 
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Let's be real - the respect towards people is a western construct really. Not a single non-westernized country has respect towards its people.
Its a CHRISTIAN construct, really, but anything inherent in western values other than maybe a by product of a high trust society you can find elsewhere. Christianity puts humanity first (well, religion first), above family, town, country and that's incredibly baked into the american mindset. Other groups can be very predatory on "the other" in ways I don't think the typical Christian "my word is my bond" really thinks about when they are the vast majority.
 

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There is nothing to negotiate anymore. They are stalling time because only 1 or 2 days for protesters to survive. But there are also no options to strike as it won't change anything. What exactly can be done there is a question. As even a simple bombing won't change. Pahlavi is useless so what options are on the table? Sanctions won't work. Like Rial's conversion rate is 0 right now. Even if they kill ayatollah...What exactly is going to happen? The army won't anything.

So far I see only one option...But it won't be used.
 
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They already have the orders to prepare then. Strike packages are already green lighted , Load outs will be configured on aircraft and will set in arm dearm areas for the go.. Units in the area will be on 24 hour orders more than likely doing BAMCIS, to count and ready bullets, beans, and bandages, while logistics and Semper Net will start closing off to anyone outside of the AoR.

Running latest satellite images to see if any A/A defenses are still in existence. Advanced communications with the grey guys in Iran already more than likely surveying first strike targets and any secondary they deem necessary.

Just my opinion of course with my experience and talking to some friends still serving. That's what I'd would be doing, anyway, as it takes time for the ground MOS's to get those babies ready.
 
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X is such a clusterfuck rn - obviously everyone here is pro Israel interests so regime collapse narrative is dominant here, but then there are also quite a few posts on X that suggest regime in iran has a lot of support from its people/very strong base (brainwashed? idk). I don't know what's real or not over there, but if the regime does have a lot of support then airstrikes/occupation is obviously not going to result in long term stability.
 
X is such a clusterfuck rn - obviously everyone here is pro Israel interests so regime collapse narrative is dominant here, but then there are also quite a few posts on X that suggest regime in iran has a lot of support from its people/very strong base (brainwashed? idk). I don't know what's real or not over there, but if the regime does have a lot of support then airstrikes/occupation is obviously not going to result in long term stability.
I imagine that if you are profiting under the current regime, there is a very real likelihood that you will get killed by any new regime, as that's pretty much the way of things for a violent change in power.

It's why the american experiment of cycling between "my favorite person EVER" and "LITERAL HITLER" happening so often with so little violence/retribution is a beautiful thing to see.
 


Article:
I've just heard from sources on the ground that the families who are going to identify their loved ones who have been killed by the Islamic republic for protesting are being forced to pay approx one billion tomans and sign a false confession that their family member was a "member of the Basij who was killed by the protesters."

Effectively, the Islamic Republic plans to use this in order to justify mass executions of the thousands of Iranians they have arrested.


Stalin would be proud...
 
I am not sure why it does not make sense for you considering that the media has been propping up Hamas whole last year, believing every number provided by their authorities. Add to that the fact that there are many many lefists / liberals working in the media. We see it in USA and it is kinda worse in the Europe. The current Iranian regime represents everything that democrats and Europeans want to be - unfortunately for them the regime is collapsing in real-time and it becomes inconvenient to cover, as it would require explanations why it happened and suddenly Starmer (as an example) turns into ayatollah :messenger_tears_of_joy: Additionally it gives power to anti-state and anti-EU forces as Iranian are protesting against erasure of their true legacy - persian one - and that erasure was done by islamists. Kinda similar to Europe, don't you think?


100% I mean without X, only some small forums would post anything about that. But together with Starlink it is a huge headache for governments as they have trouble suppressing people.


It is not a free market - just like with tampons in the men's lockers - you have peer pressure, amplified by loud women with suicidal empathy and having support of men who want to sleep with them.
This makes no sense. Do you really see American liberals as pro-Ayatollah? Do you talk to any liberals with any good-faith effort?

I would argue the opposite, that legacy media is dominated by Fox News and liberals are split amongst several channels. CBS is now trying to move into the Fox News space by aligning its coverage with what boomers want to see, which is generally a pro-Trump, America-First, Anti-city perspective.

In fact, X and other social media is even worse at worldview confirmation bias because it programmatically cherry picks the news that people want to engage with, and that happens to be news that emtertains them while it confirms their world view.

Have a anti-black racist worldview? Bam! All videos of black people behaving antisocially/violently. Combine that with cognitive illusions such as overly-strong pattern recognition and generalization and you have essentially created a choose-your-own reality simulator that ratchets toward silos and extremism.

Fox News originated the idea of intentionally boosting a worldview and conditioning people distrust other news outlets. Social media accelerates that trend a thousand-fold.

Those without a shared history cannot have a shared future.
 
This is why we have the 2nd Amendment. Something tells me the typical Iranian doesn't have access to any kind of firearm, much less a battle rifle in a serious caliber.
Yep. I'm a left of center guy, and I constantly have arguments with left-wing folks over this. They scream ACAB and also want all the guns gone, but the moment you introduce the criminal element, they instantly vapor lock with no concrete solutions to the problem. Some of them now currently advocate arming themselves because they view the current administration as hostile, not realizing the irony of suddenly being cool with the 2nd amendment. Suddenly the core rationale for why we have that in the Bill of Rights is unveiled for those individuals... we all have the right to defend ourselves against threats, perceived or otherwise.

My entire neighborhood is armed, for various reasons. I'm at far greater risk of dying from a car wreck during a commute to Aldi than I am from a gunshot. And in the event that any administration, now or into the future, Democrat, Republican, or otherwise decides to try their hand at becoming a totalitarian regime, well... they're going to have an impossible time trying to subjugate an armed population where every local Walmart and Rural King is well stocked with ammunition and maintained by workers made up of the general public who will happily distribute it among themselves to fight back.

I hope the Iranians get their freedom, but it's a borderline impossible scenario without outside interference.
 


And it's going to be the US again that will be the only one to actually do something about it rather than blither and talk through the sacred "diplomacy" that has achieved fuck all in many decades.

I bet our arseclown politicians in the UK will try and take some credit though. Their strong words will really have done a lot.
 
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Looks like I derailed the thread a bit earlier with that snide remark about "monitoring Ukraine".

Look while I still wish the EU would go further with measures like enforcing a no fly zone over western Ukraine, and even committing troops, I recognise that they have provided substantial aid, manufacturing capacity, equipment and ordnance and have partly stepped up to offset the current US administration's idiocy. Without EU support, Ukraine would certainly be in even more dire straits.

The situation is obviously shaped by a wide range of geopolitical variables and flashpoints that make escalation difficult for any bloc, but it is also true that Russia has so far gotten away with literally murder on the myth that it is some kind of advanced warfighting nation. The reality on the ground has been far from that narrative and the fact that the US administration continues to be waffle has only emboldened Moscow with additional space and time to inflict further damage.

Toppling the current Iranian regime would not only free the people from murderous oppression, but also deal a huge blow to Russian and Chinese interests. I'm actually surprised that they aren't sending in reinforcements into Iran to deter US and Israeli intervention.
 
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There is nothing to negotiate anymore. They are stalling time because only 1 or 2 days for protesters to survive. But there are also no options to strike as it won't change anything. What exactly can be done there is a question. As even a simple bombing won't change. Pahlavi is useless so what options are on the table? Sanctions won't work. Like Rial's conversion rate is 0 right now. Even if they kill ayatollah...What exactly is going to happen? The army won't anything.

So far I see only one option...But it won't be used.
I'm seeing figures of between 500-5000 protesters killed alongside mass arrests across the country. It doesn't matter how strong your resistance is if the Regime has decided to fight a war of attrition against its own people. They'll literally bury the country to keep their Islamic Regime in control. Sadly, the only way you're getting that out is civil war.
If the leader and his cabinet are killed, you might convince parts of the current army to at least stand down, or at best step up. But the Regime has spent the last 40 years setting up safe havens and bunkers to ensure that even in total obliteration, the Islamic Regime keeps control over Iran. And Iran will have support from the terrorist organisations its been funding and backing.
I don't think this ends well unless a superior military force steps in.
 
Officially instructing US citizens to get out asap.



Article:
Iran: Protests across Iran are escalating. Increased security measures, road closures, public transportation disruptions, and internet blockages are ongoing. Airlines continue to limit or cancel flights to and from Iran, with several suspending service until Friday, January 16. U.S. citizens should expect continued internet outages, plan alternative means of communication, and, if safe to do so, consider departing Iran by land to Armenia or Türkiye.
U.S.-Iranian dual nationals must exit Iran on Iranian passports. The Iranian government does not recognize dual nationality and will treat U.S.-Iranian dual nationals solely as Iranian citizens. U.S. nationals are at significant risk of questioning, arrest, and detention in Iran. Showing a U.S. passport or demonstrating connections to the United States can be reason enough for Iranian authorities to detain someone. More at ir.usembassy.gov/iran-security-…


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With calls to help the Iranian revolutionaries getting more frequent, my thoughts on it are this.

I wouldn't be opposed to limited humanitarian aid. But I'm a hard NO on military aid or intervention.

Let the Iranians topple their oppressive government then determine their own fate. The last thing they need is an outside force (whether that be America, Europe, Israel, or Russia) getting involved, trying to steer things toward their preferred ends. That's what led to this mess in the first place 73 years ago. Everything that's happening now can be traced back as a direct result of the 1953 coup d'état of the then Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Rather than turn this into a novel, I implore people to look up the history of Mosaddegh, his social reforms (which most modern folks would applaud), his popularity, and, crucially, his decision to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Then look up Winston Churchill's Operation Boot, and the follow up joint operation with the United States called Operation Ajax.

That chain of events led to 25 years of resentment against the west to simmer.
That resentment, plus a growing push back against secularism by the Mullahs, was the ammunition for the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Successful revolutions that create lasting social change require self-determination, not external meddling.

Off topic edit:
I recognise that they have provided substantial aid, manufacturing capacity, equipment and ordnance and have partly stepped up to offset the current US administration's idiocy.

The only "idiocy" is the EU spending more buying Russian LNG than they have spent on Ukraine aid. Spare me the pontificating about what the US is or isn't doing while the EU continues to fund both sides of the war due to their energy reliance on Russia. Something President Trump warned EU leaders about during his first term and was laughed at for his troubles.
 
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I can't help but feel this will be the end for the regime ...

 
With calls to help the Iranian revolutionaries getting more frequent, my thoughts on it are this.

I wouldn't be opposed to limited humanitarian aid. But I'm a hard NO on military aid or intervention.

Let the Iranians topple their oppressive government then determine their own fate. The last thing they need is an outside force (whether that be America, Europe, Israel, or Russia) getting involved, trying to steer things toward their preferred ends. That's what led to this mess in the first place 73 years ago. Everything that's happening now can be traced back as a direct result of the 1953 coup d'état of the then Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Rather than turn this into a novel, I implore people to look up the history of Mosaddegh, his social reforms (which most modern folks would applaud), his popularity, and, crucially, his decision to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Then look up Winston Churchill's Operation Boot, and the follow up joint operation with the United States called Operation Ajax.

That chain of events led to 25 years of resentment against the west to simmer.
That resentment, plus a growing push back against secularism by the Mullahs, was the ammunition for the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Successful revolutions that create lasting social change require self-determination, not external meddling.

Off topic edit:


The only "idiocy" is the EU spending more buying Russian LNG than they have spent on Ukraine aid. Spare me the pontificating about what the US is or isn't doing while the EU continues to fund both sides of the war due to their energy reliance on Russia. Something President Trump warned EU leaders about during his first term and was laughed at for his troubles.

it's a nice thought but unless the military switch sides then they're going to get crushed eventually.
 
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