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[Ihyll]

A new Monmouth University poll was released today and has Hillary Clinton up by 13% among likely voters.

Monmouth has a A+ rating on 538

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/

Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters.

Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).

 

[Geist-]

I almost pity Trump with how one-sided this is. Almost.

 

[Blader]

Seems like her post-convention bounce is actually growing a bit rather than fading.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Some analysts on Twitter noted that this and other recent polls have shown Clinton is closing the gap on the white vote as well. Tidbits like Trump is losing the white female college-educated vote by 30% while Romney won that category by 6%. Dude is getting thrashed right now.

 

[Cabbagehead]

good damn that gap is as big hick's dental plan.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Seems like her post-convention bounce is actually growing a bit rather than fading.

He is losing ground at the same time

 

[Zach]

I almost pity Trump with how one-sided this is. Almost.

I don't. Not even almost. Dude has it coming.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

GOP:

 

[Head of Vengarl]

I almost pity Trump with how one-sided this is. Almost.

Fuck that. There is no margin wide enough. I hope he disappears into the ether after going down in flames. Serves him and his people right for firing up the bigots and letting them coalesce behind a major candidate.

 

[Tubie]

Teflon Don no more.

Looks like that horrible week did some real long lasting damage to Trump.

 

[Sadsic]

i work for the pollster who does all the polling for monmouth university - always cool to see our work in the news!

i can 100% say the hillary bump is real, and started around last monday, and seems to be independent of the DNC convention

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Wishful thinking, but I wouldn't be surprised if progressives have a hold on all three branches after November.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

still not a large enough margin

 

[SGRX]

I just hope the lead doesn't grow so large that it creates complacency (among Democrats). Some of the congressional races this year are going to be fairly close.

 

[hawk2025]

I just hope the lead doesn't grow so large that it creates complacency (among Democrats). Some of the congressional races this year are going to be fairly close.

At some point, I hope it just becomes about utterly crushing and humiliating the idea that racism and bigotry can win in the US.

I can see that being a motivator to actually go to the polls and be part of history.

 

[kaskade]

I know some trump people and even they are in the mindset that he better shut his mouth. They're almost accepting the reality hat he won't win, which could be a snowball effect.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I just hope the lead doesn't grow so large that it creates complacency (among Democrats). Some of the congressional races this year are going to be fairly close.

I think just about everything works in democrats favor this year.


Much of the right hates Trump enough to stay home when they otherwise wouldn't.

Much of the left hates Trump enough to vote when they otherwise wouldn't.

 

[weekev]

The fact that Trump is still within 13 points is still somehow depressing to me. Keep sliding please, let's get it to at least 20 points before the election.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Just remember that this still means something around 40 MILLION of our fellow Americans will vote for Trump.

 

[jerry113]

Fuck that. There is no margin wide enough. I hope he disappears into the ether after going down in flames. Serves him and his people right for firing up the bigots and letting them coalesce behind a major candidate.

Yep. The bigger the gap is, the more optimistic I feel for the future of this country. The salty tears of his ~40 million supporters will be delicious.

 

[Culex]

Great result but we still have 3 months. That's a LONG time in a political race.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

The fact that Trump is still within 13 points is still somehow depressing to me. Keep sliding please, let's get it to at least 20 points before the election.

I wouldn't be surprised if "likely voter" polls are oversampling white voters and under sampling hispanic/black voters. A sizable, but inelastic number of whites are enthusiastic about Trump. I don't think the rest of them will fall in line.

 

[whyamihere]

Yeah, this seems a bit separate from the DNC convention. Her numbers have kept stable/growing this past week. It's not even that Trump is fading, but Hillary has hit 50, which is huge in a race with many undecideds.

Great result but we still have 3 months. That's a LONG time in a political race.

Alliteratively, we might look back at this week as the point of no return for the Trump campaign.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Whens the last time an presidential election was won by that much of a margin? I know this isnt a sure thing or anything, im just curious. Seems like every election ive seen has come down to the wire.

 

[SDCowboy]

I'd still like to see it closer to 100% for Hilary.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

If Trump is still down by 10 points or more going into October, I think we're going to see a lot of endorsements get rescinded by McCain and his ilk. Ideally, they'll get called out for abandoning ship and it will only add to the fire.

 

[Adaren]

The more he gets beat by, the better. Racism, sexism, and conspiracy theories have no place in our society.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Whens the last time an presidential election was won by that much of a margin? I know this isnt a sure thing or anything, im just curious. Seems like every election ive seen has come down to the wire.

Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points (58% to 40%) in 1984. He won 49 out of 50 states.

 

[whyamihere]

Whens the last time an presidential election was won by that much of a margin? I know this isnt a sure thing or anything, im just curious. Seems like every election ive seen has come down to the wire.

No one 49 or younger has voted in a presidential election where the margin was over 10 points.

 

[TheBryanJZX90]

I know some trump people and even they are in the mindset that he better shut his mouth. They're almost accepting the reality hat he won't win, which could be a snowball effect.

The only ones I know personally are just in complete denial, and quote polls that some Trump supporter did on their own or the size of crowds at rallies.

 

[Basileus777]

If Trump is still down by 10 points or more going into October, I think we're going to see a lot of endorsements get rescinded by McCain and his ilk. Ideally, they'll get called out for abandoning ship and it will only add to the fire.

Not from those running for reelection this year. McCain would be toast if he pissed off Trump supporters.

 

[Slayven]

Some analysts on Twitter noted that this and other recent polls have shown Clinton is closing the gap on the white vote as well. Tidbits like Trump is losing the white female college-educated vote by 30% while Romney won that category by 6%. Dude is getting thrashed right now.

Damn you can't be losing the women vote and think you still got a shot.

 

[Zach]

I'd still like to see it closer to 100% for [Hillary].

I'd be happy with 0% Trump.

 

[thestopsign]

Whens the last time an presidential election was won by that much of a margin? I know this isnt a sure thing or anything, im just curious. Seems like every election ive seen has come down to the wire.

Neither of Obama's wins were really down to the wire. 2008 was a virtual landslide.

 

[ascii42]

Whens the last time an presidential election was won by that much of a margin? I know this isnt a sure thing or anything, im just curious. Seems like every election ive seen has come down to the wire.

Probably 1984. Reagan won 58.8% to 40.6%.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Wishful thinking, but I wouldn't be surprised if progressives have a hold on all three branches after November.

it's getting less wishful by the week

 

[ampere]

Fuck that. There is no margin wide enough. I hope he disappears into the ether after going down in flames. Serves him and his people right for firing up the bigots and letting them coalesce behind a major candidate.

Preach. We need to show that we are not a country of hate and fear

it's getting less wishful by the week

ebay's city gets an NBA title and all of a sudden he's all cocky

(I hope Wang is right)

 

[smokeandmirrors]

have we looked at social media trends tho. trump is killin it there! lieberal media doesn't want you to know that! Sad!

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Not from those running for reelection this year. McCain would be toast if he pissed off Trump supporters.

He might be toast if he disappoints the #nevertrump crowd too. Not sure he has a winning strategy honestly. All it would take is maybe 5% of people who would normally be in his corner to refuse to vote for him on the basis that he's endorsed Trump.

 

[eBay Huckster]

The fact that Trump is still within 13 points is still somehow depressing to me.

that'd literally be the widest margin in 8 elections, the second-widest in 11, and the fourth-widest in 20

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

Fuck that 37 percent.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Preach. We need to show that we are not a country of hate and fear

And of milking working class people to pamper billionaires.

We need to send strong messages. We need to make the GOP hurt, badly.

 

[valkillmore]

Post convention bounce got hops

 

[Crayons]

b-but the polls are wrong! Hillary rigged them. The Donald is gonna win, I swear! make america good again!!

 

[Slayven]

have we looked at social media trends tho. trump is killin it there! lieberal media doesn't want you to know that! Sad!

If Social Media meant all that much Bernie would be ruling the universe with the Antilife Equation.

 

[Palette Swap]

If anything, I hope this energizes everyone. Use that momentum to make a huge splash, not to be complacent.

 

[Phrozenflame500]

This seems to indicate to me that all Clinton has to do to win this by a mile is to not screw up too badly. Trump's campaign strategy seems to be set in stone by now and he's definitely not going to stop saying stupid shit.

 

[yanipheonu]

TEH BIAS tho.

Pretty hilarious how people are clinging to some fabrication of bias to pretend that Trump isn't losing horribly.

Please take the lesson: Listen to the data, even if you don't like the outcome. Shutting your ears to the truth rarely helps anyone, including Trump.

 

[Brian Griffin]

If anything, I hope this energizes everyone. Use that momentum to make a huge splash, not to be complacent.

I'm sure as fuck energized. Every time I read about Hillary killing it in the latest poll I get more excited to vote for her. She's inheriting Obama's ground force and being the potential first woman POTUS I have no doubt the GOTY effort will be legendary. She needs to crush him and everything he stand for.

 

[eBay Huckster]

this should embolden people to get out and volunteer for HFA, Planned Parenthood, their state's Democratic Party, and anyone else on the ground right now working to elect Dems

(because i know i'm gonna be doing that for the next few months. just signed up for two voter-registration shifts for HFA and i'm still planning on canvassing for PP this Sunday)