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Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]

B

Brandon F

Well congratulations! You got yourself caught!
Hopefully the local papers that dropped endorsement and wrote such scathing justification against him will not soon forget and maintain complete skepticism as he pushes horrendous legislation until 2018.
 
P

PKrockin

Member
Funkyhamster said:
I think you might be misinterpreting the notation? I thought R+11 means that the Republican is expected to get 22% more of the vote than the Democrat. I could be wrong, but I thought I read this on GAF recently. I'm trying to look up exactly what the notation means (and what its name is) right now.
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It's possible. I only recently learned about it. I thought it was a percentage point spread, but I could be wrong.
 
S

SURGEdude

Member
Ughhh!

9NJXUmz.png
 
F

ForsakenLotus

Member
We will never know, but I wonder what the results would have been had all of the people who voted early (which was quite a significant percentage I think) waited and voted today and had known about the amateur wrestler on the ballot. It's a shame, because I have to believe he wouldn't have won.
 
S

soldat7

Member
ForsakenLotus said:
We will never know, but I wonder what the results would have been had all of the people who voted early (which was quite a significant percentage I think) waited and voted today and had known about the amateur wrestler on the ballot. It's a shame, because I have to believe he wouldn't have won.
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Not convinced they would have changed in significant numbers. Party loyalty and all that.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
hodayathink said:
Just like with the Senate confirmations, much of that was show. If the Republicans needed more people to vote for the AHCA (that time), they would have gotten them. They basically allowed everyone they could to vote against it to help their own campaigns.
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One more name attached to a shitty law then
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
Lord Frieza said:
Don't be obtuse
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I'm not being obtuse, I'm doing simple math.

Two seats flipping out of 7,383 is nothing.
  • The NY Assembly race had 9,656 votes, the NH Representative race has 1,566. There are more state legislators than votes that the two winners got combined (5590+811.)
  • The NY State Assembly is 107(+1) D to 42 R. The NH House of Representatives is 223 R to 171 D (+2 L.) Nothing changes here.
The two flips are notable since they were solid R districts, but don't let admonitions against ignoring state legislatures distort the political math.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
RC0101 said:
He's up about 5-7 and I bet it's going to stay under 10 so you can argue that's good for the Democrats.
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Yeah, but it's still disheartening he's probably going to win above predicted even. I was bracing for a loss and all, but so can't but be disappointed. The loss in Georgia is going to be rough

Squirrel Killer said:
I'm not being obtuse, I'm doing simple math.

Two seats flipping out of 7,383 is nothing.
  • The NY Assembly race had 9,656 votes, the NH Representative race has 1,566. There are more state legislators than votes that the two winners got combined (5590+811.)
  • The NY State Assembly is 107(+1) D to 42 R. The NH House of Representatives is 223 R to 171 D (+2 L.) Nothing changes here.
The two flips are notable since they were solid R districts, but don't let admonitions against ignoring state legislatures distort the political math.
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Okay
 
O

Opto

Banned
Alright Montana, you got the country to care about you for a bit. Now go back into obscurity until Far Cry 5 comes out
 
K

KingBroly

Banned
xxMaximusxx said:
Some polls like Google even had D pulling out a win.
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Very poor polling.

Always look to polling data/crosstabs if you can, because that tells you everything you need to know about how they weigh their polls. Just believing the top line will almost always get you into trouble.
 
S

SURGEdude

Member
BlazinSkatinAxel said:
Picture 1, the blue is the tears of Montana crying....


I bet some would have changed their vote if not form early voting.
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While I do agree it's not worth just dismissing the validity of how solid the support for stupid is in this country. It's not like pre-assault that any half-ways decent person should want to send a Trump enabler to Washington.

With my ever expanding boycott list I'm going to be planning my future vacations in the few states that don't seem to house a plurality of reprehensible individuals. If I can avoid sending funds or in any way support these shitkickers I do. While there are lots of great people amidst the trashheap, I'd much rather support the states that aren't run by cunts like Montana's next congressman.
 
W

wildfire

Banned
With 80% reporting in it's extremely doubtful Quist will overcome the 6 point gap.

Pity he couldn't help get that district of Montana on a better track.

Hopefully as the Trump admin continues to anger people these tight races become swings.
 
P

Poltergust

Member
wildfire said:
With 80% reporting in it's extremely doubtful Quist will overcome the 6 point gap.

Pity he couldn't help get that district of Montana on a better track.

Hopefully as the Trump admin continues to anger people these tight races become swings.
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It's the entire state. Montana only has one House member.
 
S

SURGEdude

Member
Atenhaus said:
Jesus, are all politically-oriented threads on OT filled with Juniors drive-by shitposting?
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Yes, and be carefull too. Last time I told one of them to fuck off I ate a 14 day ban, and then they got banned to. Because by some strange logic it's fine to suggest we punch Nazi's as happens in tons of threads, but heaven forbid we offend them.

The results of this race make Georgia much more important. Sadly I think the media will take this with what I'd imagine the Republican PR angle that clearly the anti-Trump fervor is a result of a false media narrative and not a reflection of the mood in the nation.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
SURGEdude said:
The results of this race make Georgia much more important. Sadly I think the media will take this with what I'd imagine the Republican PR angle that clearly the anti-Trump fervor is a result of a false media narrative and not a reflection of the mood in the nation.
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Yeah, I expect a lot of stories tomorrow saying something around that idea. And it's looking like the percentage drop is going to be pretty miniscule, too. Georgia is probably the last hope for any kind of pre-wave sentiment building.
 
D

DirtyCase

Member
I was watching cnn earlier on when they were getting David Axelrod's analysis on the Montana race and the kushner deal. Part of me wants 24 hour political commentary done by Axelrod, but he would need to sleep at some point. He figured Quist would lose but Gianforte could become a negative emblem for republicans in general. Either way I never really had any hope for this special election, I do hope the next one in Georgia is a little closer. I want the republicans in washington to sweat for as many reasons as possible.
Sorry if Im off base at all, politics are boring in Canada.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
DirtyCase said:
I was watching cnn earlier on when they were getting David Axelrod's analysis on the Montana race and the kushner deal. Part of me wants 24 hour political commentary done by Axelrod, but he would need to sleep at some point. He figured Quist would lose but Gianforte could become a negative emblem for republicans in general. Either way I never really had any hope for this special election, I do hope the next one in Georgia is a little closer. I want the republicans in washington to sweat for as many reasons as possible.
Sorry if Im off base at all, politics are boring in Canada.
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If Dems lose in Georgia, there won't be much sweating in the GOP.
 
M

Michael F. Assbender

Banned
This was a done deal before it started. Too bad it looks like the margin of victory will be bigger than some suggested, though.

There's always GA and 2018, said the increasingly nervous man.

xxMaximusxx said:
It's from World of Warcraft...ya know games...on a gaming site?
Cringy is your profile pic lol
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When they go low, we insult their profile pic.
 
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